Tonight’s YouGov results for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). It looks as though the rather unexpected 8 point Labour lead on Thursday was indeed a bit of an outlier, nevertheless, Labour’s post-local-election boost does seem to have abated a bit – last week Labour’s average lead in YouGov’s daily polls was 12.6 points. This week it has been 10.6 points.

There are also new figures from TNS-BMRB (although the actual fieldwork for the poll was done over last weekend, so while it’s newly published, it was done the same time as the ICM and Populus polls earlier this week). Their topline figures with changes from their last poll just after the local elections are CON 30%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LD 12%(+2), Others 16%(-1).

As usual, I’ll do a proper post on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow.

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%. This is the first time YouGov have shown the Labour lead dropping back into single figures since the local elections, and follows a ten point lead yesterday.

I’ll add my normal caveat – it could be the start of YouGov’s bigger Labour leads of up to 14 points that we’ve seen since the local elections falling back a bit… or it could just be normal random sample error.


Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. The ten point Labour lead, while big compared to most of the Parliament so far, is actually the lowest from YouGov for almost a fortnight. It is well within the margin of error of a Labour lead of twelve points though, so far too early to take it as a sign Labour’s post-local election boost is subsiding at all.

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9% – very much the norm for YouGov’s polls in the last week or two.

On a completely unrelated point, given my readership contains an awful lot of councillors, candidates, activists and other politicos, Michael Thrasher (of Rallings and Thrasher fame) has asked me to pass a message on to people who stood in the local elections this year. Over to him:

“Since 2006 The Elections Centre, based at Plymouth University, has been conducting annual surveys of candidates that stood in the May round of local elections. Candidates are selected at random from the published nomination lists and are asked a range of questions about themselves, their motives for standing, their experience of the campaign and also attitudes towards different aspects of local government, particularly the numbers of women, younger people and members of Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups sitting on local council benches. These survey data are invaluable in providing a profile of who stands (and, of course, who doesn’t stand), the type of local election campaigning that is being conducted and other information that expands our understanding of the local electoral process.

More than six thousand candidates (a one in two sample) were sent a letter in May inviting them to participate in this year’s survey. If you are one of those candidates but has yet not found the time to participate in the survey then there is still time to do so. Simply, locate your reference number on the letter that you were sent and follow the instructions for completing the survey. Many thanks to all those that have or are about to participate!”

With ICM’s poll earlier today showing a boost for the Conservatives and most other polls showing Labour increasing their lead since the locals, Populus’s monthly poll for the Times is somewhere inbetween, showing no significant change at all since the local elections. Topline figures are CON 33%(nc), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1) Others 16%.

UPDATE: The rest of Populus’s poll asked about Britain’s EU membership, economic policy and the perceptions of the party leaders. On the EU 21% said they were positive about British EU membership compared to 31% who were negative. On economic policy, in what appears to be a forced choice question 49% said that the government should stick to its current policy of prioritising dealing with the deficit by 2017, 51% thought it should slow the pace of cuts.

On the party leaders, Populus repeated an exercise they did a year ago, giving people a list of words and asking which they most associated with each of the party leaders. A year ago Cameron scored best on being determined amd arrogant, Miliband and Clegg both weak and out of his depth. We’ll have to wait for the details of the poll to see the full changes here, but according to the Times’ write up more people see Cameron as out of touch than a year ago, but he continues to be seem as standing up for Britain. Miliband’s top ratings continue to be weak and out of his depth.

Meanwhile, the daily YouGov poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7% and Others 16% (with UKIP in third place on 8%) – very typical of YouGov’s polls since the local elections.