ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out this weekend. The topline figures are CON 38%(+2), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 11%(-3).

Changes are since the last online ComRes poll a month ago, taken at the height of hackgate. The Conservative 38% equals ComRes’s highest online rating for them this year – but we’ve seen smaller ComRes Labour leads in both May (1 point) and June (neck and neck). Generally speaking ComRes’s online polls tend to be amongst the most favourable polls for the Conservative party, rather than some notable shift towards the Tories, this is very much in line with the sort of polling ComRes’s online polls were showing before hackgate.

Tonight we will also have the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at around 10pm. I’ll do a full update tomorrow when the tables appear.

The post-riots polling continues to roll on – on yesterday’s Sun poll there were some questions on the sentencing of those involved in the riots (full tabs here and here).

Overall, only 12% of people think the sentences handed down so far have been too harsh. 49% think they are about right and 32% think they have been too soft.

YouGov asked about two specific cases that have received some comment – firstly the two men in Cheshire, who received 4 year prison sentences for creating pages on Facebook that encouraged people to riot in Warrington and Northwich (neither of which saw any riots in the end). In this case 25% thought the four year sentences were too harsh, 57% about right and 12% too soft.

The second case YouGov specifically asked about was a man sentenced to two years in a young offenders institution after breaking into a supermarket during the riots, and caught by the police before (they believed) he could steal some cigarettes. In this case 19% thought the two year sentence was too harsh, 61% about right, 14% too soft.

More generally, 70% of people think that the sentences being handed down in relation to the riots have been harsher than they would normally be (compared to 13% who think they are the same and 5% less harsh), however, the majority of people seem to think this is how it should be – 59% think the courts should be giving out harsher sentences for offences during the riots than they would have before, compared to 33% who think sentences should be the same.


On yesterday’s YouGov poll there were also some questions on the continuing aftermath of the riots – full tabs here.

First up, only 35% of people think that Bill Bratton should be allowed to apply for the Commissioner of the Metropolitan police job, 50% think he should not. YouGov asked a more generic question on the principle of whether it should be possible to recruit foriegn police chiefs at the start of the month and found only 20% of people did. So while asking specifically about a successful American police chief was (unsurprisingly) more acceptable than some unspecified generic foriegn policeman, it was still only acceptable to a minority.

Secondly YouGov asked about some of the suggested responses to the riots. There was extremely widespread support for giving the police the power to remove face coverings of those suspected of crimes (94%), of banning suspects from social media sites (79%), of stopping welfare benefits for people convicted of involvement in riots (71%) and of cancelling police cuts (70%). Support was less strong for the idea of evicted families from council houses where a member of the family was involved in riots – supported by 46%, but opposed by 40%.

Tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. Despite the political upheaval of the riots, there is very little change in voting intentions – a 6 point Labour lead is at the low end of YouGov’s recent range, but the underlying Labour lead still seems to be about 7-8 points.

MarketingMeans have their latest monthly poll of voting intentions in the South-West region for the The Western Morning News & Western Daily Press (or, at least, most of it – it excludes Poole & Bournemouth). Topline figures with changes from the June/July poll are CON 40%(-2), LAB 21%(-7), LDEM 21%(+5), UKIP 9%(+7), GRN 4%(-1). Full tabs are here.

A big drop in support for Labour, and a recovery for the Liberal Democrats… though I’d add my normal caveat about being cautious about any sudden movement in polls. So far this year MM’s regular South-West poll has been pretty steady and consistent (see below), so this big jump is quite surprising – we’ll have to wait till next month to see if it is sustained.