The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian shows a solid lead for the NO campaign in the AV referendum. Excluding don’t knows and won’t says, and weighted by likelihood to vote, the topline figures are YES 42%(-7), NO 58%(+7). Changes are from February.

Without turnout weighting and repercentaging the figures are YES 33%, NO 44%, Don’t know 23%.

This is the biggest lead we’ve so far seen for the no campaign in a question asking the bare referendum question, but is very much in line with the “No-wards” trend we’ve seen from other pollsters. The only company still showing YES ahead in recent polling is Angus Reid.

Note that unlike other recent AV polling ICM did include Northern Ireland respondents in their sample (that said, Northern Ireland voters are a very small proportion of the total UK electorate, so it would only make a difference in a very tight race. To give you an idea of scale, in ICM’s sample of 1033 people only 30 were from Northern Ireland)

Meanwhile ICM’s voting intention figures stand at CON 35%(-2), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 15%(-1), others 13%. Changes are from last month (which, you may recall, was conducted during the government’s very brief “budget bounce” and showed a tiny Conservative lead.

First, there is a new YouGov Scottish poll in Scotland on Sunday. Topline figures there, with changes from a fortnight ago, are:

Constituency vote: CON 11%(nc), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 8%(+3), SNP 40%(nc)
Regional vote: CON 12%(nc), LAB 33%(-6), LDEM 7%(+2), SNP 35%(+3), Green 6%(nc)

There is a significant movement from Labour to the SNP on the regional vote, and these figures fit a lot more neatly with the historical trend than the last lot. A fortnight ago YouGov had the SNP ahead in the constituencies, but Labour well ahead on the regional vote – which would have been an unusual result. The SNP lead on the constituency and regional votes here is much more comparable.

In the SoS John Curtice projects these figures as producing 55 seats for the SNP, 49 for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 6 for the Lib Dems and 5 for the Greens.

Secondly the full tabs for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are up here. On the AV referendum, NO remains in the lead, but much less convincingly than the midweek poll for the Sun – YES is on 40%, NO is on 41%. Before adjustment for likelihood to vote the No lead was 3 points, so YES voters do appear to be slightly more likely to turnout. Leaders ratings are Cameron minus 8 (from minus 9 a week ago), Miliband minus 19 (from minus 15 last week), Clegg minus 44 (from minus 39 last week).

Much of the rest of the poll dealt with immigration, and found the usual broadly negative opinions. 40% of people did not feel Britain had benefitted from immigration in any way. 88% agreed that immigrants unable to speak English or unwilling to integrate were creating discomfort in British communities, 93% thought people coming to live here permanently should be required to learn English.

Turning specifically to David Cameron’s comments, 73% think he was right to raise the issue of immigration, but the majority (51%) of them think he did so to score political points. There is also very little confidence that the government will be able to deliver on their plans to reduce net immigration to only tens of thousands – only 16% think they will succeed, 60% think they will fail.

There were also some questions on tuition fees. 35% of people say they support the policy, 44% oppose it. The figures were almost the same when YouGov asked if people thought graduates would still be better off with tuition fees – 37% think graduates would still be better off in the long term through higher salaries, 42% think higher salaries will be outweighed by the cost of tuition fees.


The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out and has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. Four points is a slightly lower Labour lead than we’ve seen from YouGov lately, but nothing that couldn’t easily be just normal random variation.

Meanwhile the figures for the latest YouGov/Scotsman on Sunday poll have briefly appeared on the Scotsman’s website, and then disappeared again! While they were there they apparently showed the SNP ahead in both the constituency and the regional vote. I don’t actually have the figures, so can’t confirm if these are correct, but I’ll update properly on both the Sunday Times and the Scotsman on Sunday polls tomorrow.

There is a new ComRes poll out for the Indy on Sunday. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from ComRes’s previous online poll a month ago, are CON 35%(-2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 15%(+3). A four point Labour lead is pretty typical of ComRes’ online polls, which seem to be slightly more favourable to the Tories than their parallel phone polls for the Independent.

The poll also asked ComRes’s regular tracker on AV voting intention, and found the NO campaign ahead by six points. Topline figures (weighted by likelihood to vote – though it’s unclear whether ComRes asked specifically about likelihood to vote in the referendum) with changes from last month are YES 37%(+3), NO 43% (+6), Don’t know 21%(-7).

As people make their minds up, the NO campaign seem to be consolidating a small lead. The last YouGov poll to ask the bare referendum question also found a NO lead for the first time. Populus found NO moving ahead, though did not ask the specific referendum wording. In contrast Angus Reid continue to show YES ahead.

ComRes asked various other questions (all as agree/disagree statements. ComRes/Indy/Indy on Sunday polls have a tendency to ask almost every question, no matter the subject or what they want to know, as an agree or disagree statement. It’s beyond me why). The most interesting ones were some asking about the coalition a year on – people are split almost down the middle about whether the Conservatives would have been better off going it alone than forming a coalition with the Lib Dems, and only marginally more likely to think that the Con & LD coalition has worked out better than a Lab & LD coalition would have (though I expect the answers to that question will be wholly and predictably partisan).

41% of people agreed with the statement that the Liberal Democrats should pull of the coalition if they don’t get the changes they want to the NHS policy… though I expect a large chunk of those responses will be from people who think the Lib Dems should pull out of the coalition anyway. YouGov asked a similar “should the Lib Dems leave the coalition if…” question about the AV referendum back in March, but with more nuanced answer options. 11% of people though the Lib Dems should leave the coalition if the AV referendum was defeated… but 27% thought they should leave it anyway.

Finally, ComRes found 41% of people supported the military action in Libya, with 38% opposed. When they previously asked back in March they found 35% in support but 43% opposed. Regular readers will recall some debate here over why when the conflict in Libya first broke out ComRes were showing people opposed, while YouGov were showing people supportive. I put forward two obvious possible causes – YouGov presented it as a joint action between the USA, France and the UK, while ComRes only mentioned the UK. The other difference was that YouGov asked the question by itself, while ComRes asked it as part of a rotated set of statements including ones about British soldiers risking death and injury – this time round ComRes didn’t ask the other statements about Libya, so I suspect the change may be due to question order effects rather than an increase in support for Libyan intervention.

Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov voting intention figures for the Sunday Times at 10pm, and a YouGov poll for the Scotsman on Sunday (no time for that – presumably whenever the SoS release them).

ITV Wales have published the latest YouGov Welsh voting intention figures. Topline voting intention figures with changes from the last poll at the end of March are:

Welsh constituency: CON 20%(-1), LAB 49%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 17%(nc)
Welsh regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 44%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 18%(+2)

Clearly there’s no massive change since a fortnight ago. ITV Wales’s seat projections based on these figures are Labour 31, Conservative 13, Plaid Cymru 11, Lib Dems 5 – so still a very narrow overall majority for Labour.