The daily YouGov poll for the Sun shows topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, still a pretty consistant Labour lead of around about 8 points.

Tables are here – worth noting are the Libya questions, which YouGov have been asking daily since military intervention began. Today for the first time more than half of respondents think the intervention is going badly (54% badly to 24% well). There has been a long, slow trend of increasing pessimism about our involvement in Libya – presumably what’s pushed it over 50% was the assassination of the rebel general this past week.

On whether it is right or wrong for Britain to intervene in Libya 34% now think it is right, 43% wrong.

The full tables for YouGov’s Sunday Times poll are now up here. Latest voting intention in the AV referendum is YES 39%, NO 38%, Don’t know 22%, so still essentially neck and neck (if it hadn’t been weighted by likelihood to vote, it would have been exactly neck and neck)

On Libya it’s pretty even on whether people think military action is right or wrong – 40% think it’s right, 39% think it’s wrong – we’ve seen this bounce back and forth between being in favour and against over the last few days, suggesting the underlying position is now people pretty evenly divided. For the first time more people think the military action is going badly (38%) than think it is going well (35%) – there has been a strong downwards trend on this question over the last fortnight, at the start of which the proportion of people thinking it was going well was up in the high fifties.

Moving to health, YouGov asked how much people trusted Ed Miliband, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Andrew Lansley on health. Ed Miliband was narrowly the most trusted: 39% trusted him a lot or a little, followed by David Cameron who 36% of people trusted a lot or a little. Compare this with Andrew Lansley – who is only trusted by 17% of people (even amongst Tory voters, only 41% trust him on the NHS).

27% of people say they support the NHS proposals, compared to 52% who oppose them. Asked what should be done next 34% think they should be abandoned, 47% say the government should change them to address people’s concerns (including the overwhelming majority of Conservative supporters), only 3% think they should continue as they are.

On interns, the perception is that companies are benefitting rather more than the interns themselves (33% think it benefits companies more, 14% interns more, 44% both equally) – however people to tend to agree with the argument that internships allow an unfair advantage to children of parents with good contacts or enough money to work for free. 65% would support some sort of regulation.

Asked about whether various professions are more about what you know, or who you know, politics is overwhelmingly seen as being about who you know, not what you know (by 76% to 8%). That’s followed by journalism (56% who you know, 21% what you know) and acting (55% who you know, 22% what you know). Accountancy and medicine are seen are more meritocratic – 59% think progression in accountancy is about what you know, 20% who you know, 71% think medicine is more about what you know, only 11% who you know. People were pretty evenly split on their view of the legal profession.

Finally on the Royal Wedding 3% will be attending a street party, 2% going to London to see it, 35% will be watching on the telly… 35% will be trying their best to ignore it.


Public opinion is starting to move against our involvment in Libya. Since bombing began, YouGov have been asking daily whether people think it is right or not for Britain and its allies to take military action, and whether people think the intervention is going well or badly.

Opinion has shifting significantly over the last week on whether it’s going well or not – a week ago 57% thought it was going well, 19% thought it was going badly. Today it is 42% going well, 34% going badly. This is now starting to reflect in the people who think it is right or wrong for us to take military action against Libya – something which has previously been pretty steady. For the first time so far YouGov’s tracker today showed more people (43%) thinking the military action was wrong than those in favour of it (38%).

The poll also asked about the fate of Moussa Koussa – Libya’s former foriegn secretary and intelligence chief. Only 22% of people think he should be allowed to stay in Britain in order to help weaken the Gaddafi regime and only 7% think he should be offered immunity from prosecution in return for his help.

I didn’t get chance to have a proper look at the Sunday Times YouGov poll yesterday – tables are now up here. Looking at the regular tracker first, on the Alternative Vote, using the referendum and weighted by likelihood to vote, the current figures stand at YES 40%, NO 37%, D/K 22%. David Cameron is back into negative approval ratings after his brief post-budget bounce – his net approval is minus 5 (from 0 last week), Ed Miliband is at minus 13 (from minus 15), Nick Clegg at minus 39 (from minus 35). Economic optimism trackers remain in their usual dire state.

That aside the most interesting findings were on attitudes towards the conflict in Libya. Overall people remain slightly more in support than opposed to the military intervention (by 43% to 37%), but are rapidly becoming less positive about how well it is going. In the middle of last week people thought the action was going well by a margin of 3 to 1 – peaking on March 29th with 57% thinking things were going well and 19% thinking things were going badly. By the time of the Sunday Times poll this had narrowed to 42% thinking it was going well and 30% thinking it was going badly – presumably the shift is in response to stories of rebel forces being routed in attacks.

On other Libya questions people remained opposed to arming the rebels (by 28% support to 46% opposed) and strongly opposed to the use of British ground forces (by 18% support to 64% opposed). There was comparatively little support for possible compromise solutions that would leave Gaddafi in place – only 27% of people would support giving Gaddafi the chance to go into exile in exchange for him agreeing to step down voluntarily without a fight, only 13% would think it acceptable for Libya to be partitioned with Gaddafi remaining in power in the West of the country with an independent state in the East of Libya.

Finally YouGov asked about people’s response to the suggestions that Al Qaeda fighters were involved in the Libyan rebellion. I had expected a much more negative reaction in this question, but actually there was more of a streak of realpolitik in people’s responses. 28% of people agreed most with a statement that the West should not help the rebellion if there were signs it included Al Qaeda, 41% agreed most with a statement that the rebellions was bound to contain some unpleasant elements but that it was more important to remove Gaddafi (11% agree with neither statement).

The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. The improved Conservative position in voting intention was echoed by improved ratings for David Cameron – his approval rating is now neutral, with 47% thinking he is doing well, 47% badly (the first time he’s been out of negative territory since January).

On the specific budget questions, people were pretty evenly split on whether the budget made the right or wrong decisions for the country (34% thought it was right, 37% wrong) but tend to think it would be bad for them personally – 41% though it was wrong for them, only 25% right.

Only 15% said it made them more confident about the future, compared to 43% saying it made them less confident. There isn’t actually much change to overall economic confidence compared to last week (last week only 11% expected their financial position to get better over the next 12 months, now only 10% do), but people are generally a lot more pessimistic than last year about whether the government’s policies will help. Most people (59%) think unemployment will increase in the next year or two, 57% think inflation won’t come down, 59% think poverty will increase. Only 27% think the government’s measures will make the economy grow faster in the long run…

That said, people still trust Cameron and Osborne to run the economy more than they do Miliband and Balls (39% for Cameron & Osborne, 30% for Miliband & Balls).

On the cuts, 29% think the cuts are right (25%), or not deep enough (4%). 29% think the size of the cuts is correct, but they are being done too fast. 15% think the cuts are too large, and there should be tax rises instead, 14% that neither large cuts nor tax rises are necessary.

Amongst Conservative supporters, 70% think cuts are right or too small, 23% think they are right but too fast, only 3% think they are too large. Amongst Labour supporters only 3% think they are right or too small, 32% think they are right but too fast, 30% would prefer smaller cuts and more tax rises, 27% don’t think either large cuts or tax rises are necessary.

On the specific issue of petrol prices, the majority of people (54%) put the blame for high prices on the government for the high level of tax, followed by 21% who blame the instability in the Middle East. Comparatively few people (11%) blame oil companies themselves.

Turning to the issue of Libya 50% now think David Cameron has responded well to the situation in Libya, 35% badly. This is considerably up on last week when 37% thought he was doing well and 44% badly. 45% now think we are right to take action in Libya, 35% wrong. 30% of people think it would be legitimate to deploy ground troops in Libya. Of course, that’s not the same as actually doing it – only 23% think it is worth risking the lives of British servicemen.

Note that while YouGov are consistently showing more people supporting than opposing the action in Libya, ComRes are still showing the opposite, this week they found 35% in support and 45% opposed. One of the reasons for the difference is probably the wording – ComRes ask if it is right for the UK to take action, YouGov ask if it is right for the UK, USA and France to take action. Another one may be question order – YouGov ask the right or wrong question about Libya by itself, ComRes ask it as part of a grid along with the other four questions they ask on Libya, with the order rotated – hence the majority of people would answer the question about British armed forces risking death or injury before answering the question about whether the action is right or wrong.