Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. All this week YouGov’s daily polls have been showing Labour leads of between 3 and 5 points, suggesting that there has been a definite change from the neck-and-neck position we were seeing at the beginning of the year. Reasons for poll movements can never really be more than speculation, but as I wrote last month, my guess is a combination of a fading of the “veto effect” from December, less negative perceptions of Ed Miliband than back in January, and perhaps the increased prominence of the issue of the NHS. I’ll update on the YouGov poll tomorrow once the full tables are out.

Yesterday we also had new figures from Angus Reid. Their topline figures with changes from January were CON 32%(-3), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1). An eight point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since before the veto, though it’s worth noting that Angus Reid have tended to show some of the larger Labour leads of any polling since the election.

There is also an ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll on gay marriage. I don’t yet know if it also had voting intention figures but will update as and when.

This months polls seem to have bunched together to an absurd degree – yesterday we had ICM, Populus and YouGov, now we also have Angus Reid, TNS-BMRB and Ipsos MORI (plus of course, another YouGov daily poll tonight).

MORI have topline figures of CON 38%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LD 12%(+1). Unlike most of the rest of the recent polling this is actually a slight move against the Conservatives although it still leaves the two parties neck and neck. The leader approval ratings are also very negative for Ed Miliband, dropping to minus 26 from minus 16 a month ago. It does also have an interesting political implication for inside the Westminster bubble – up until now the Labour party have been using MORI’s leader ratings to claim that Miliband’s leader ratings are broadly comparable to Cameron’s at a similar stage in his leadership. It was quite a tendentious claim anyway (Cameron’s ratings were around minus 5 or 6 at this stage), but it certainly cannot be sustained any longer. Miliband’s approval ratings are now heading into Hague or IDS territory.

TNS-BMRB have the most positive figures for Labour we’ve seen recently, with topline figures of CON 37%(+2), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 13%(-2). Figures for Miliband are again more negative though, the percentage of people telling TNS they have confidence in him to solve the country’s problems has dropped to 22% from 25% in October. 38% said they has confidence in David Cameron (down from 41%).

Angus Reid also have Labour holding onto a small lead, although it has fallen sharply since November, with topline figures of CON 35%(+2), LAB 37%(-5), LDEM 11%(+3). Again, Ed Miliband’s figures have fallen sharply – his net approval stands at minus 31 (down from minus 20 in November).

UPDATE: YouGov’s daily poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, so another one with a small Tory lead. Overall we now have ICM & YouGov showing narrow Tory leads, ComRes & MORI showing Labour and the Conservatives level, Angus Reid, TNS and Populus showing narrow Labour leads.


There is a new Angus Reid poll up on their site here. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 33%(nc), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), Others 17% (including UKIP unchanged on 7%). There isn’t much change on last month – Angus Reid do tend to show some of the biggest leads for Labour.

Secondly there is a ComRes poll of Londoners, the first I can recall seeing since Brian Paddick was selected as the Lib Dem candidate (and, therefore, the first to have a voting intention question with a proper candidate names for all parties, rather than featuring “a Lib Dem candidate”). Voting intention in the mayoral election stands at Boris 48%, Ken 40%, Brian Paddick 7%, Others on 4%. In a run off between Boris and Ken, they have first and second preferences totalling Boris 54%, Ken 46%.

As far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn’t really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn’t read too much into that.

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.

Angus Reid have published a new voting intention poll, carried out at the end of last week. Topline voting intentions with changes from their last poll in July are CON 33%(-1), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 11%(+1). No obvious sign of a Conservative boost from them.

Meanwhile yesterday’s YouGov poll for the Sun continued to show a significantly narrower Labour lead than last month, with figures of CON 38%, LAB 40%, LD 9%.

On the boundary changes (which as you’ll have probably picked up, are a particular interest of mine that I’ll be boring on at length about next week) here are are interesting articles by Lewis Baston and Mark Pack on the new consultation process.