ICM’s fortnightly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 42%(+1), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc). As with other recent polls there is no sign of any obvious movement. The national polling position appears to be largely stable, the government may be struggling with Brexit, Theresa May’s approval figures may be falling, but voting intention is pretty static. The two main parties are both around 40%, with most polls showing a small Labour lead (ICM tend to produce the best figures for the Tories – hence the neck-and-neck figures in their most recent polls).

Today’s ICM poll also asked a couple questions about a “no deal” Brexit. 45% of people said they expected the Brexit negotiations will not conclude successfully (though I haven’t yet seen the wording of the question, so I don’t know if the question defined unsuccessful as meaning no deal at all, or included poor deals), only 30% expect them to be a success. ICM also asked how people would feel if Britain and the EU failed to reach agreement by the time Britain leaves the EU – the most common answers were those connected with doubt and trepidation – “worried” (50%) and “confused” (29%), followed by the more negative “furious” (24%) and the more positive “pleased” (14%).

Tabs to follow when available…

630 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 42, LAB 42, LDEM 7”

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  1. Colin
    I responded to ToH’s father’s homily of “the world doesn’t owe you a living” with my own father’s homily of “we are put on this earth to work”. Also adding that my dad was a staunch trade unionist. In response to a couple of comments I hazarded that I thought my dad’s example had probably made me a trade unionist as well, which involved organising to help others outside my immediate family. Sorry if you think that’s ‘virtue signalling’.

  2. @R Huckle – I don’t disagree with anything you said. I generally support the EU, although, as I say, I wish it could draw limits to it’s ambitions. I am not a fan of a single EU state option, but I do accept that pooling powers is sensible in many areas, as you highlight.

    My concern is primarily that if the EU overeaches itself and is too ambitious, it may trigger it’s own demise by losing the support of too many of it’s citizens. If this happens, we will indeed lose a great deal.

  3. @RJW

    To ‘Virtue signal’ is an irregular verb

    I am speaking my mind
    You are virtue signalling
    He/she/it is flouting the will of the people


    “If you ignore them it does get easier and who knows, they may head off to pastures new.”

    If only…

    [But you’re right – ignoring is bliss.]

  5. Valerie

    Sound advice on trolls but difficult to follow some times.


    Thanks for the two posts. We agree, the point i was making was that the Commission had signed off Junckers plan.

  6. Chris Riley

  7. Howard

    “Trolls” is an odd word but I suppose we are stuck with it.

    My own experience of being sniped at is that withdrawing the oxygen of a response is definitely the best way to go.

    It also reduces the boredom for casual readers.

  8. Hmmm… Wigan council have now removed the breakdown by ward that I linked to earlier in this thread. Who’s the snitch?

    I’m ruling Chris Riley out for now as he liked the Pemberton stats but you never know- he might just have wanted to keep them for himself!


    @”Surely there are some really tangible benefits to having the EU organise many aspects from the centre. ”

    I agree-it just depends what they are.

    @”. Eurozone countries will have to be controlled tightly, so the excessive borrowing previously seen is not repeated.”

    I agree-and said so in my post. Everyone knows the Convergence rules were useless. So Macron & Juncker have come to the obvious conclusion-Fiscal Sovereignty must pass from the Member States to Brussels.

    My point is that without Fiscal Sovereignty you have no meaningful sovereignty. So what follows logically, for me, is the replacement of EU Member States & their Parliaments by Regional Assemblies with Budget Funds allocated from the EU Treasury-which has raised them via Common EU Taxes levied from the Centre.

  10. Trump ‘s former campaign manager Paul Manafort indicted on charges of conspiracy against the USA and money laundering.

  11. @Shevii

    It’s true that I am a nefarious character, but I was too fond of how it made Pem look silly to want the data removed.

  12. “My point is that without Fiscal Sovereignty you have no meaningful sovereignty.”

    That is quite interesting if applied in a different context.

    Conservatives have been telling us for decades that we have to do what the markets tell us, particularly in matters fiscal.

    Is that ‘fiscal sovereignty’, or capitulation to the neol!beral orthodoxy?

  13. @Hireton

    bear in mind Mueller can (and almost certainly will) indict people who are not American citizens.

    Can anyone think of divisive UK political figures with odd, unexplained links between Trump’s campaign and Russia-linked organisations that distributed stolen information during the campaign?

    If any such people existed, Mueller could complicate their post-Brexit escape options significantly. And make things very difficult indeed for their sinking party.

  14. @COLIN

    I don’t see the need for much change to current EU rules. Eurozone countries and even those outside are supposed to work to certain financial disciplines.

    Juncker etc can talk about a United States of Europe all they like, but there is no support for this from most French, German, Italian etc politicians. It is not going to happen.

    The Euro currency was a very good idea, but the implementation was very clumsy and countries were included that should not have been.

    Given the referendum requirements in many countries, there will not be any new EU treaty for a very long time. There will therefore not be any reforms that require a new treaty. What the EU can do is be a bit more flexible in their approach and help create a stronger market place, where more people are in jobs in mainland EU and spending money. I will leave it to economists to come up with policies that are likely to produce economic growth, without excessive borrowing.

  15. I will laugh like a drain if Guido ends up bringing down the Government and/or halting Brexit.

  16. @Chris Riley

    The potential political fallout from sexual harassment complaints is enormous; this could be the new expenses scandal.

    I don’t think it’ll lead to the government falling though; unless charges are filed I’m willing to bet people like Crabb will be pressured from above to not stand down in order to not risk the majority.

  17. I think it’s a little too early to get overly carried away with the fall of government and this series of scandals.

    While it saddens me to say this, my current suspicion (and I am perfectly happy to accept I may be wrong) is that this fits into to the ‘liberal media’ narritive and will not generate anything like the same outrage as the expenses scandal.

    I say this because I feel it’s less likely that we are going to see evidence of a systematic culture of abuse, actively condoned by parlimentary authorities, nor do many of the allegations appear to fall into the very serious categories of sexual abuse.

    ‘Having sex with a secretary’, which is apparently one of the allegations against the 36, is, by and large, a private matter between the various consenting parties and their partners, if they have them. Not exactly the detonation of respect that came with expenses.

    I’m not really sure where this is heading, but the initial headlines seem to fall someway short of what would be needed for convictions and a serious dent in the authority of the government – although that may yet change as time goes by.

  18. If this MP asked his secretary to buy him items in her work time for his very personal use that is also surely a breach of the code.

    When I was a nurse I was involved in an investigation that resulted in a member of staff being dismissed after in transpired they took some service users on a trip to a garden centre to buy himself some fence panels.

  19. sorry, his/er work time…

  20. I also don’t think it will bring down the Govt, tbh.

    I will just laugh – a lot – if it does and Guido gets the blame. Indeed, it would take a heart of stone not to laugh.

  21. Just catching up on the latest Westminster sex scandal, seems to be a feeding frenzy for the terminally offended brigade. I can sense the outrageous indignation of the UK media all the way over here in the US I could almost hear the clink of champagne glasses as various newspaper editors revel in a classic politician sex scandal story conveniently forgetting there own recent misconduct.
    I’m not suggesting that any individual doesn’t have the right to go about her or his business without being abused or bullied, but sometimes I think some have lost the plot in the level of hysteria they can generate in the interaction between people.
    I realise some might not agree but in this case along I suspect with a large number of the UK population don’t care get over it.

  22. Alec is right where it is a private matter imo, Robin Cook and Paddy Ashdown spring to mind. Neither stood down as they had not ‘preached’ which is what did for Parkinson.

    Harassment proved and inappropriate requests and comments to staff should be dealt with firmly though.

  23. @Turk – would I be correct in assuming you are a man?

  24. R HUCKLE

    @”I don’t see the need for much change to current EU rules.”

    No ?-not the extradition laws even ?

    :-) :-) :-) :-)

    “Ousted Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont has left Spain and travelled to Brussels, Spanish government officials have said.

    Mr Puigdemont is facing sedition charges from the Spanish government after Catalonia declared independence under his leadership.”


  25. If Puigdemont really has sought “asylum” in Belgium , the EU face some very difficult decisions.

    This could be fun.

  26. OK @Colin – so what you are saying is that you want the EU to dictate to sovereign states what their extradition policies should be?

    I didn’t think that was quite your general approach.

    Anyway – new thread.

  27. Five other ministers in the sacked Catalan government were reported to have travelled with him.

    Oh Boy !!!

  28. ALEC

    Nope-just saying this organisation is not stable. And they have no idea how to make it so.

  29. @Colin – understood, but I don’t really understand what the Spainish/Catalan/Belgian extradition issue has to do with the stability of the EU?

    We’ve been here before with ETA, and the EU just carried on, as these issues between member states have nothing to do with EU competencies. Just don’t get where you are going with this.

  30. turk

    “I’m not suggesting that any individual doesn’t have the right to go about her or his business without being abused or bullied, but…..”

    …….but people shouldn’t make a fuss about it if they actually ARE abused or bullied eh?

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