Sunday polls

Opinium’s latest voting intention figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Theresa May’s net job approval stands at minus 21, Jeremy Corbyn’s at plus 4 (though May has regained a small lead on who people think would make the better Prime Minister, 36% to Corbyn’s 33%).

Asked about Theresa May’s future, a third of people think she should resign straight away, 16% think she should go after Brexit negotiations are complete, 8% just before the next general election and 22% that she should remain and fight the next general election. Answers to this are heavily partisan, as you might expect: a hefty majority of Labour voters would like May to go now, only 9% of Tory voters. 62% of Tory voters would like her to remain PM until either shortly before the election (14%) or to fight the election (48%). Tabs for the Opinium poll are here.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2). Changes are since Survation’s last online poll in mid-June, rather than their last telephone poll which showed a small Tory lead. Theresa May also still leads as best PM here, 43% to Corbyn’s 35%.

Survation also asked questions about Theresa May’s future, though their’s was a simpler should she stay or go question.45% would like her to resign, 40% would like her to stay. Again, responses are overwhelmingly split down partisan lines: 77% of Lab voters would like her to go, 78% of Tory voters would like her to stay). Asked about who should succeed her if she did go, Boris Johnson leads on 22% ahead of David Davis on 15%. 46% of people say don’t know. Questions like this don’t give us that much insight because of low public awareness of the options. The most interesting ones there asked who people would prefer in run offs between two potential leaders – between Davis and Johnson Davis wins by 36% to Johnson’s 30%. Paired against Philip Hammond Johnson only just wins, 34% to 33%, though he beats Amber Rudd by 38% to 27%. There are still lots of don’t knows, but I’m conscious that a few years ago Johnson’s popularity and celebrity would probably have seen him easily winning all three questions at a trot. The shine looks as if it may have come off Boris Johnson. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Finally there was a BMG poll in the Independent asking about the public sector pay cap. Questions like this are tricky – most people have huge sympathy for “frontline” public sector workers like nurses and firefighters, so the social desirability bias towards saying you’d pay a little more to give them a rise is huge (it’s what we tend to call a “drowning puppy” question in the office, as in “would you pay more tax to save this drowning puppy?”). If anything, I’m surprised only 56% said they’d be willing to pay more in tax to fund a pay rise above 1% for only occupations like firefighters, police officers, paramedics and nurses. More generally, 69% of people said the public sector pay cap should end, but asked if they’d be willing to pay more tax to give a rise to “non-emergency” occupations the split was pretty even, 42% said they would, 41% would not..

Opinium also asked about the public sector pay cap in their poll. 53% of people support ending it, 21% of people would be opposed. They also asked about it on specific jobs. Questions like this are, to some degree, just reflections of how popular or valued a role is (as well as how well paid people think it currently is). Almost 70% of people wanted the pay cap ended for nurses, 60% or more for the armed forces, police and fire service. Teachers was 56%, followed by doctors on 53%. For dentists it was only 38%. I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs: local government planning officers perhaps, benefit assessors, immigration officers, refuse collectors, traffic engineers, taxmen…


480 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. @oldnat

    Indeed, and we could also then sail Wimbledon up to Scotland for a bit, share it around. Maybe Parliaments and Assemblies etc. could rotate too, spread some harmony and understanding… The MSPs could move to the Seneed for a bit, The Seneed peeps to Westminster etc.

  2. @Guymonde

    A Stoke Parliament?

    Interesting.

    Would involve changing protocols so MPs have to refer to each other as ‘duck’?

  3. Carfrew

    It already seems likely that all the governance of NI will move to Westminster – and even more of the governance of Wales and Scotland too, if the Tories have their way.

  4. I think the correct parlance is ‘me duck’

  5. Thinking about it, Stoke would be good for our relations with China

  6. @oldnat

    Yes, I was just suggesting summit to counterbalance that. Maybe we should have an exchange programme…

  7. CMJ & Guymonde

    That might restart the political career of Peter Viggers –

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Duck_House

  8. Ballot papers are out in the big election of the summer -Labour Party Conference Arrangements Committee.

    Momentums Hayes and Chandwani versus the Watsonian incumbents Cashman and Del Piero.

    Will tell us something about state of play and organisation of the two factions.

  9. @ Brilliant Smith

    The Ballot papers are also out for the National Constitutional Committee which mysteriously did not handle the suspensions, expulsions and court cases in last year’s Labour leadership contest.

    That was left to a Procedure Committee that was independent of the NEC. I’m inclined to wonder if Tom Watson is not part of the NCC because he was a prime mover on the PC along with the General Secretary (Returning Officer)
    • NEC Officers (Ann Black, Keith Birch, Diana Holland, Jim Kennedy, Paddy Lillis, Ellie Reeves, Mary Turner, Tom Watson)
    • Margaret Beckett MP
    • Glenis Willmott MEP

    I make that three pro-Corbyn, five anti and one fence-sitter.

  10. I voted this evening

  11. Looks like there is definitely a shift in the vote for Stoke.
    Soon our M.P.’s will all be pronouncing double O’s as U’s and eating oatcakes for lunch :-)

  12. Vote Labour-Vote Twice.

    :-)

  13. Bin reading the Mail then Col?
    Dacre working hisself and readership into a bit of a lather.
    Doubt much will come of it.

  14. I’d go for creating an English Parliament in Manchester, making it the new capital of England, and leaving London the capital of a newly federalised UK.

  15. RJW

    Guardian actually old chap.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/watchdog-investigates-claims-of-people-voting-twice-at-general-election

    I note your outrage that “Democracy isn’t working” :-) :-)

  16. Still don’t think much will come of it, in terms of overturning election results. What matters above all is certainty, apparently.
    :-/

  17. Oldnat

    Is Strontian19th century Wee Free church an example you had in mind?

  18. The Tories seem to have gone full on Trump

  19. Chicago and NI.

    ‘Vote early and vote often’

    And for dead people as well allegedly in Chicago in 1960.

  20. @ COLIN
    “Vote Labour-Vote Twice.”

    Thanks for the voting tip. People, particularly in the Hampshire area read your voting tips.

    Is this voting Labour once in the council elections and once again at next years general election ? :-)

  21. I put up this link some time ago. It is being re-posted given that there are some comments about the nature of the NI/Ireland border. Here is the link.

    http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/irish-border-oxymoron/

    “The risks posed by Brexit to cross-border relations on the island of Ireland thus not only have fraught symbolic resonance but also starkly concrete implications. The movement of goods is a particularly complicated matter if the border is to remain ‘invisible’, if not ‘frictionless’. The future designation of goods originating in Northern Ireland will affect the nature of the controls required on them in crossing the Irish border. Such controls will be necessary to uphold the integrity of the customs regime on either side of this border. Technological solutions in this area are limited and tend to rely on features that will be difficult to implement in the case of the Irish border. These include effective IT systems for traders to make customs declarations and for customs enforcement to perform risk analysis on these declared goods, on the predominance of single load containers for tracking (rather than those containing a range of products for delivery), on designated entry points along a land border for tracking/stopping the movement of goods, and on large spaces for customs inspections (for undeclared items, duty evasion or dangerous goods) to be performed. There are problems associated with all these ‘solutions’ when applied to the context of the Irish border. Some of these problems arise from the nature of cross-border trade on the island (groupage, Just in Time logistics, the predominance of SMEs with small capacity and no experience of customs declarations, agri-food supply chains). Others arise from the nature of the border itself, with over 250 crossing points and an historical symbolism that would make any physical piece of monitoring equipment or customs checkpoint a security target.”

  22. At least we get a vote, Colin.

  23. According to Labour List Momentum candidates for CAC and the NCC are well.ahead on nominations .But will the youth turnout I hear you say.Almost certainly but they will only get one vote as its administered by the ERS .

    NCC will be elected by delegates to conference which traditionally has helped the anti Corbynistas.

  24. Norbold,Colin
    Reckon we have been talking at cross Porpoises, but strangely making sense!

  25. Summat to affect demographics on a forward-going basis innit.

    “Rising rates of life expectancy are grinding to a halt after more than 100 years of continuous progress, according to a leading health expert.

    University College London expert Sir Michael Marmot said he was “deeply concerned” by the situation, calling it “historically highly unusual”.”

  26. Inflation down to 2.6%.

    Perhaps with exchange rates stabilising within a modest range we will see a further drop in the 4th quarter as the inflationary impact of Sterling’s post Brexit drop did not work through for a few months.

    Maybe Interest Rates will hold, although a nudge back to 0.5 and then 1% would not be a shock?

  27. New ICM poll, showing a 1 point Labour lead:

    Labour: 43% (no change from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Conservatives: 42% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

    Ukip: 3% (no change)

    Greens: 2% (down 1)

    Labour lead: 1 point (down 1)

    Fieldwork was 14-16 July, same kind of time as Survation which found a 2-3 point Labour lead.

    This is all margin of error stuff, but it is nonetheless showing a narrowing, as other polls are. This does however further provide evidence that Labour is within a narrow range of 42-45%, with the Tories ranging from 39-42%. So a 2-3 point lead is probably about where we are. Could be that there’s been less movement than we thought.

    Looking at the tables there’s very little of interest. As I said last time, ICM performs an additional adjustment for don’t know / refusers, which tends to increase the tory lead by 2 points or so. In the tables it shows Lab on 44 and Tories on 41; last time it was 44 and 40. Scottish subsamples still positive for Lab; showing 35 Lab, 33 SNP, 25 Tory, 4% LD.

    Just to highlight how vulnerable some SNP seats are, this Scottish result would give SLab 34 seats (+27); 14 to the Tories (+1); just 9 to the SNP (-26) and 2 to the LDs (-2). Essentially SNP and Labour would swap places, except Labour would only need to lead by 2 points to do this whilst at the moment the SNP has a 10 point lead over Labour. This is because SNPs vote is distributed very badly, fairly evenly across rural and urban seats. Whereas in rural seats, the Tories are the only real opposition and Labour are the only opposition in urban seats. Meaning their vote is more concentrated, which is excellent for CON and LAB but terrible for the SNP.

    For the UK as a whole the poll would lead to Lab on 308 seats, Tories on 300 seats. Only real possible government would be a ‘progressive alliance’ aka ‘coalition of chaos’…

  28. There is a post at Slugger’s today regarding Brexit and the NI/Irish border. Here is the link

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/07/18/ireland-top-of-the-agenda-in-todays-brexit-negotiations/

    The idea that a frictionless border is possible is found wanting.

    “Indeed, Simon Coveney has poured cold water on the notion that technology alone will allow for the operation of a ‘frictionless’ border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland following Brexit.

    Coveney said:

    “What we do not want to pretend we can solve the problems of the border on the island of Ireland through technical solutions like cameras and pre-registration and so on. That is not going to work.”

    Until now, politicians in London in particular have delivered empty platitudes in relation to Ireland such as ‘no return to the borders of the past’, without ever offering anything resembling a solution, other than that which Coveney has now dismissed as unworkable. “

  29. NORBOLD

    @”At least we get a vote, Colin.”

    Dunno about you-I only got one.

  30. There is always a possibility of being recognised by the staff so I make sure the empty houses I register my extra votes at are covered by different polling stations.

  31. Colin

    That’s your own fault for not having two houses

  32. Cambridge Rachel

    Indeed-this only applies to Corbyn’s New Model Army of Middle Class London types with a little place in the sticks.-plus the Students of course.

    I suppose for the former ,£5k would be Petty Cash to defeat the evil Tory Hegemony masquerading as Democracy.

    For the students-£5k is still only half a years savings on Uni Fees-and anyway One Person One Vote is so bourgeois isn’t it?

  33. SAM

    Many thanks for the links you post on NI – amjor source of information for me.

    Too few people are bothering to take an interest in this IMO.

    I can’t personally see any solution to the border problems that will be acceptable to all three parties, and think this most likely to derail the whole negotiations. The EU, acting for the Republic, won’t negotiate a deal that includes a hard border. The DUP won’t accept an Irish Sea border. And May won’t budge on the Customs Union.

    Given that the reasonably straightforward negotiations on citizens’ rights have got into a bog too, I can’t see much hope for a deal.

  34. Two Votes

    The British voting system has been open to abuse for years in a number of ways and no-one does anything about it. Perhaps people being generally honest, the amount of cases wasn’t worth it…

    But now it’s ‘students!’ and the Daily Mail is on the case!

    I smell a new moral panic.

  35. [email protected] “I can’t personally see any solution to the border problems that will be acceptable to all three parties, and think this most likely to derail the whole negotiations. The EU, acting for the Republic, won’t negotiate a deal that includes a hard border. The DUP won’t accept an Irish Sea border. And May won’t budge on the Customs Union.”

    EasyPeasy. Force the Irish Republic out of the EU.

    No, I am not serious …. [but others might be]

  36. MONOCHROME

    I think SThomas is quite keen on that idea – but she thinks it’ll be voluntary because the Irish are longing to become part of the UK again!

  37. PATRICKBRIAN @ SAM

    The EU, acting for the Republic, won’t negotiate a deal that includes a hard border. The DUP won’t accept an Irish Sea border. And May won’t budge on the Customs Union.

    Just as well, then, that the DUP can bring the Cons down if they need to, which would give a subsequent Lab government a very good reason to shift to supporting EEA membership, which Lab don’t seem to be far from already.

    May not having slapped Hammond down on his latest musing suggests that she might understand that the DUP really do care about retaining a soft border and the Belfast Agreement. She’s always got her “precious union” position to fall back on.

  38. BZ
    re: NI Border

    Possibly.

    But labour’s stated position on this is hardly different from May’s (Please, anyone who understands what labour’s position actually is, correct me!)

  39. [email protected] “I think SThomas is quite keen on that idea – but she thinks it’ll be voluntary because the Irish are longing to become part of the UK again!”

    And no doubt the Brexit referendum is making them gag for it

  40. I have heard of allegations and complaints of double voting, (mainly it appears from people who have something to gain/are not happy with the election result), but has anyone seen any actual evidence of people voting twice

  41. MONOCHROME

    I’m actually an Irish citizen, (dual nationality) so would be personally disappointed if that were to come to pass, but not too worried at the prospect so far. Of course, once the EU starts to break apart following our sterling example, as Brexiters confidently predict, then anything is possible.

  42. “I can’t personally see any solution to the border problems that will be acceptable to all three parties, and think this most likely to derail the whole negotiations. The EU, acting for the Republic, won’t negotiate a deal that includes a hard border. The DUP won’t accept an Irish Sea border. And May won’t budge on the Customs Union.

    Given that the reasonably straightforward negotiations on citizens’ rights have got into a bog too, I can’t see much hope for a deal.”
    @Patrickbrian July 18th, 2017 at 11:53 am

    And of course no deal WILL mean a hard border.

    I think Labour are doing the best thing — as the opposition they don’t have to come down on one side or the other, and can make woolly platitudes. But the Tories, as they are in power (‘and have to make the difficult decisions’) will have to annoy one half of the country.

    They created this mess, it right they take the heat.

  43. AL URQA

    “woolly platitudes”

    Exactly what TM has been doing till now I find it disturbing that ‘woolly platitudes’ is the best labour can do. It appears that NOBODY has a plan here.

    “They created this mess, it right they take the heat.”
    Except of course it’s us, the ordinary citizens of this country, who are going to pay the price of their ineptitude.

  44. Ah yes, the old ‘the only way they could possibly have got votes is by cheating even though I have absolutely no evidence’ trope beloved of autocratic types who are utterly baffled as to why they’re not popular.

    Dacre’s breakdown still ongoing, I see.

  45. PATRICKBRIAN @ BZ

    I agree with AL URQA there. Obviously Lab are trying not to lose any group from their support and until we get quite a bit of polling evidence we won’t know what those groups are and what would cause them to switch to Con, so echoing the Con attitudes but emphasising jobs is probably their best bet for now.

    If the Cons can accept an EEA style deal to appease NI then I think Lab will be relieved. If not, things would start to become tricky for Lab unless the Cons start fighting amongst themselves.

  46. al Urqa

    When you say they created this mess you presumably meant that the tories campaigned to leave. My memory is fading but they campaigned to remain and the PM resigned only to be replaced by another PM who voted remain faced with the task of implementing the will of 17.4m voters,
    On the other hand jezza went on holiday during the campaign and clearly failed to put his heart and soul into it.Perhaps he ought to take some heat in the light of that.

    whilst i always like to see my name in lights i must say that i have no wish for eire to leave the eU. some nation has to bear the weight of the EU fishing fleet. However, contrary to present evidence i believe that they will. Just as economics led them to follow us in so it will lead them to follow us out.
    As for a hard border.so what?No–one can seriously be suggesting that the UK cannot leave the single market because of this.

  47. “Except of course it’s us, the ordinary citizens of this country, who are going to pay the price of their ineptitude.”
    @Patrickbrian July 18th, 2017 at 1:21 pm

    All in the National Interest.

    And while half of peeps want in and half want out, we will continue like this, muddling on. The EU will decide it for us; if we can’t commit to one way or the other they will decide. And their position has always been the same — we are a club and have our rules. You either accept them or you are outside. And by outside I don’t mean of the EU but the EEA also. (Because of our xenophobia.)

    Australia was the topic of today’s Daily Politics. They said trade with them was £9bn — compared to £220bn to the EU. I mean, honestly…

    I really don’t understand what benefit we get from being outside the EU in trade terms. Australia also trades with the EU, and if I was an EU trade negotiator I would insist that the EU gets either the same or better trade terms than the UK, simply because we would be in competition with each other.

    The EU are far bigger than us, and so would bully their partners to make life worse for us. Or is the world so kind, and are we so special, that everything would be done on a fair and equitable basis?

    I just cannot see HOW we would be better off. If someone can enlighten me (and why we only ever want to trade with our old Empire partners) that would be great.

  48. will someone ring for a medic for chris riley:-)

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