Sunday polls

Opinium’s latest voting intention figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc). Theresa May’s net job approval stands at minus 21, Jeremy Corbyn’s at plus 4 (though May has regained a small lead on who people think would make the better Prime Minister, 36% to Corbyn’s 33%).

Asked about Theresa May’s future, a third of people think she should resign straight away, 16% think she should go after Brexit negotiations are complete, 8% just before the next general election and 22% that she should remain and fight the next general election. Answers to this are heavily partisan, as you might expect: a hefty majority of Labour voters would like May to go now, only 9% of Tory voters. 62% of Tory voters would like her to remain PM until either shortly before the election (14%) or to fight the election (48%). Tabs for the Opinium poll are here.

There was also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 41%(-4), LD 8%(+1), UKIP 6%(+2). Changes are since Survation’s last online poll in mid-June, rather than their last telephone poll which showed a small Tory lead. Theresa May also still leads as best PM here, 43% to Corbyn’s 35%.

Survation also asked questions about Theresa May’s future, though their’s was a simpler should she stay or go question.45% would like her to resign, 40% would like her to stay. Again, responses are overwhelmingly split down partisan lines: 77% of Lab voters would like her to go, 78% of Tory voters would like her to stay). Asked about who should succeed her if she did go, Boris Johnson leads on 22% ahead of David Davis on 15%. 46% of people say don’t know. Questions like this don’t give us that much insight because of low public awareness of the options. The most interesting ones there asked who people would prefer in run offs between two potential leaders – between Davis and Johnson Davis wins by 36% to Johnson’s 30%. Paired against Philip Hammond Johnson only just wins, 34% to 33%, though he beats Amber Rudd by 38% to 27%. There are still lots of don’t knows, but I’m conscious that a few years ago Johnson’s popularity and celebrity would probably have seen him easily winning all three questions at a trot. The shine looks as if it may have come off Boris Johnson. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Finally there was a BMG poll in the Independent asking about the public sector pay cap. Questions like this are tricky – most people have huge sympathy for “frontline” public sector workers like nurses and firefighters, so the social desirability bias towards saying you’d pay a little more to give them a rise is huge (it’s what we tend to call a “drowning puppy” question in the office, as in “would you pay more tax to save this drowning puppy?”). If anything, I’m surprised only 56% said they’d be willing to pay more in tax to fund a pay rise above 1% for only occupations like firefighters, police officers, paramedics and nurses. More generally, 69% of people said the public sector pay cap should end, but asked if they’d be willing to pay more tax to give a rise to “non-emergency” occupations the split was pretty even, 42% said they would, 41% would not..

Opinium also asked about the public sector pay cap in their poll. 53% of people support ending it, 21% of people would be opposed. They also asked about it on specific jobs. Questions like this are, to some degree, just reflections of how popular or valued a role is (as well as how well paid people think it currently is). Almost 70% of people wanted the pay cap ended for nurses, 60% or more for the armed forces, police and fire service. Teachers was 56%, followed by doctors on 53%. For dentists it was only 38%. I’m intrigued about what Opinium would have found if they’d asked about less obviously sympathetic public sector jobs: local government planning officers perhaps, benefit assessors, immigration officers, refuse collectors, traffic engineers, taxmen…


480 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. YouGov poll looks like it’s following the trend of the other polls showing a downward shift for Lab and upward for Con. But interestingly, looking at the tables, this poll looks more like Con figure is boosted by fewer of them drifting to UKIP (UKIP only on 2 in this poll, down from 4), and as Lab are down 1, LD are up 1. Though the tables don’t necessarily suggest this is a direct Lab-LD change.

    As ever, main reason why Con figure is down is because their own voters are not motivated to vote for them: 14% of 2017 Tory voters are DK/WNV; twice that of 2017 Labour voters (7%).

    Corbyn vs May figure isn’t particularly good news for Labour, but is consistent with other polls. Not sure they should yet be worried, but as many commentators are saying, ‘one more heave’ for Labour may not be enough come a GE. It’s perhaps expected that his popularity would wane a bit when he’s out of the public eye (compared to during the election), in which the media narrative surrounding him and the divisions in the Labour party is more prominent. Meanwhile May appears to be ‘getting on with the job’ – though it’s increasingly clear that the divisions in her party are rather worsening.

  2. I hate it when pollsters publish polls so late; my prediction tool expects them in chronological order and it’s a big pain to rejig them.

    #meganerdproblems

  3. CHRIS RILEY

    @”I had a look in it and predicted you’d write something boring and pointle-”

    “Psychological projection is a theory in psychology in which humans defend themselves against their own unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others.”
    WIKI

    …………..just thought you might be interested :-)

  4. Interesting Simon Jenkins on whether Parliament should move out of London during the 5-year resoration of the Palace of Westminster:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/brexit-britain-needs-mps-out-of-westminster-provinces-neglected

    Apparently it would be billions cheaper than doing the work with the occupants remaining in situ. And of course it would redress the London-centrism of our masters.

    It seems an ideal topic for a referendum to me, as the Commons has so recently indicated its subservience to the popular will.

    As 80% or so of voters live outside the Great Wen I’d have thought there would be a pretty good chance of a yes vote to exiting London, and of course if precedent is followed, there would be no need to specify the destination, just the principle of leaving.

  5. Somerjohn

    Why not build a new fit for purpose parliament and flog off the old one?

  6. Would probably be cost neutral

  7. On a second #EUref once the terms of Brexit are known:

    Support: 41% (+3)
    Oppose: 48% (-3)

    (via @OpiniumResearch, 07 – 11 Jul)

    Not much movement yet, at this rate it will be middle of next year before this becomes a viable option

  8. CR: “Why not build a new fit for purpose parliament and flog off the old one?”

    I agree.

    Apparently Deloitte estimated restoration would take “from five to 11 years” and cost “from £3.5bn to £6bn”. It would surely be possible to come up with a spiffing new building more cheaply and quickly than that.

    But where to put it? Time to let the people speak!

  9. YG confirms winners bonus that went to the losers who won the campaign unravelling a touch.

  10. The government’s education announcement in the last hour or so does not appear likely to provide the poll boost they may have been hoping for, with difficult questions from their own side as well as the opposition being asked in the HoC.

    I’m impressed that even the Labour “moderates” such as Chris Leslie would appear on the surface to be keeping it more or less together for the moment, while Tory grandees and serving MPs appear to be struggling more daily with the concept of a united front.

    I went to an Any Questions broadcast here in Northampton a few years back on which Chris Leslie appeared, I have no recollection of anything he said, he seemed to have been sent along just to fill the airtime they had been democratically allotted by R4. The show erupted into chaos at the end when Ed Davey was defending the selling of Royal Mail, which was rather more fun that anyone (including Mr Dimbleby) had been expecting.

  11. Think the new Parliament should be in Stoke on Trent, land is cheap, unemployment is high, housing is cheap and it is desperately in need of rejuvenation. It has the added bonus that M.P,’s would really need to be committed to the job to work there:-)

  12. I think Chris Leslie would have been advised by fellow travellers to shut up for a while and keep his head down like many of them are.

  13. NEILJ

    Anglesey would also be relatively cheap and would have the benefit of being roughly in the centre of the UK, although a new ferry service from NI to Holyhead would be needed, but that would cost peanuts.

  14. Why not move to whichever city wins the UK city of culture next time around. All of f our MPs and senior civil servants living in an area which needs to win the city of culture award to get some culture would be an eye opener. If that happened to be outside England even better. It is the UK parliament after all.

  15. Davem

    How about moving to whichever country wins the Eurovision song contest?

  16. DAVEM

    Not a bad idea. Derry would be a good spot for the MPs to get some understanding of the border issues.

  17. I would go for York, it’s historically a seat of govt. It’s big enough to provide recreational activities for MPs but small enough that the circus that surrounds the parliament will of necessity be smaller. It’s quite central comparatively

  18. I actually quite like the idea of a moving parliament – were it not for the the logistical issues. It would help to break up the Westminster bubble somewhat, force politicians to address issues around different parts of the country, and provide an economic boost to the area (at least temporarily. Eventually you could have parliament rotate through each constituent nation of the UK, transitioning between sessions.

    Unfortunately security is expensive and having the secretaries located away from their department offices is far from ideal.

  19. BBZ

    those who go on about border issues have no real interest in solving the problem hence the lack of positive suggestions in contrast to the education fee debate on this site.

    It is just code for “stop Brexit”

    By the way what happened to that Irish legal action that you were so keen on.? Did it receive much crowdfunding?

  20. @BARBAZENZERO

    The border issue is simple it is just that no one will agree to any of the proposals

    1. Harder border – No one agrees to that GFA may become an issue
    2. Border in the Irish Sea – DUP will not agree to that
    3. FoM – UK Government cannot agree
    4. leave it as a loophole – complete madness

    Basically I would go for leaving the NI as part of the EEA and the hard border over the irish sea and then they can do things like matching the CT with Ireland and even using the Euro if they want
    I don’t see a solution to this unless you accept that the UK government will get Labour help to overrule the DUP it would amazing if May whom courted the unionist then gets a republican sympathiser to get enough votes to basically give up sovereignty of NI essentially. That would be interesting you may get the SF to take up their seats

  21. @SOMERJOHN
    “CR: “Why not build a new fit for purpose parliament and flog off the old one?”
    I agree.
    Apparently Deloitte estimated restoration would take “from five to 11 years” and cost “from £3.5bn to £6bn”. It would surely be possible to come up with a spiffing new building more cheaply and quickly than that.
    But where to put it? Time to let the people speak!
    July 17th, 2017 at 5:48 pm”

    They could build a new UK Parliament in Brussels, so when Farage does manage to become an MP, he can also continue as an MEP.

  22. S THOMAS @ BZ

    The Dublin case was abandoned in May, mainly on timing issues. See Dublin Case Update: Our Decision to Discontinue.

    And your solution to the border issue is what? At least the DUP have one, albeit one that May does not seem to have communicated to her fellow cons.

  23. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE @ BZ
    The border issue is simple it is just that no one will agree to any of the proposals
    1. Harder border – No one agrees to that GFA may become an issue
    2. Border in the Irish Sea – DUP will not agree to that
    3. FoM – UK Government cannot agree
    4. leave it as a loophole – complete madness

    Those were indeed the options as they stood pre UK GE 2017.

    As the Sun article I linked to on the previous page indicates, May’s folly in calling the early GE has handed control to the DUP, who despite being zealots are not idiots.

    They face potential electoral annihilation if a hard land border is imposed and isolation if a sea border is imposed. Accordingly they have buried the fact that there will be neither in the C&S agreement via the sentence: In furtherance of these arrangements, the Government and the DUP will work together to ensure the necessary support can be established by both parties to fulfil these arrangements. A sentence Sir Humphrey would applaud as masterly obfuscation.

    Of course it is possible that the Cons will seek Lab support to bypass this, but I doubt they’ll be successful, particularly as Lab will be well aware that the Cons don’t have the DUP onside. May is perhaps lucky that literate Cons don’t read the Sun.

  24. Survation are holding an event on the 2017 GE:

    The UK General Election of 2017:
    Campaigns, Media and Polls
    Loughborough University London, Olympic Park

    9.30-18.00 on 19th July 2017.
    Free event, tickets available at Eventbrite:

    http://survation.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=0eeabf9e3b&e=918b3a7f43

    I’d love to go, but why is everything in bl**dy London!

    Anyway, it might interest some folk here.

  25. Even if they moved parliament the palace of Westminster is a grade one listed monument and would still need to be restored.

  26. MRQUEUE

    Yes, but HMG could lease it to a private company to restore it to being Westminster palace and let them provide hotel and banqueting facilities to rich tourists. Think how much per person per night they could charge.

  27. CMJ

    As long as parliament is in London everything will tend to be based there

  28. @CR

    Can we flog London off to the US or something?

  29. “COLIN

    “Psychological projection is a theory in psychology in which humans defend themselves against their own unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others.”
    WIKI

    You’ve got me slightly concerned about ole Carfrew now Col, as I’ve just had a full check-up with my GP and he says I show [and I quote]:

    “No signs of ‘playing the victim’ syndrome”.

    I do have dodgy knees though [but I already knew that.]

  30. “Not a bad idea. Derry would be a good spot for the MPs to get some understanding of the border issues.”
    @Barbazenzero July 17th, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    And if that doesn’t work they can always go to Londonderry.

  31. For goodness sake London is our Capital City – why wouldn’t our parliament be based there – just as Paris is the Capital city of France and Madrid is the Capital City of Spain etc etc etc

  32. I was jesting about London (kind of), but it ties in with discussion about the location of Parliament.

    It can feel a long way away from the rest of the UK in many respects.

  33. But new york isn’t the capital of the US, Sydney isn’t the capital of Australia, Montreal isn’t the capital of Canada, Amsterdam isn’t the capital of the Netherlands, Zurich isn’t the capital of Switzerland…….

    Also capitals can move, from Bonn to Berlin for example

  34. CMJ

    Everywhere is a long way from somewhere… [Old proverb**]

    Do get fed up that all the decent concerts seem to be in Oxford, Cambridge, Bath or London though.

    ** It’s not but it should be. How do you set up old proverbs does anyone know?

  35. SINE NOMINE

    How very European. If the UK is to be non-European, shouldn’t we be looking further afield. The US, Australia and Brazil have all moved their capitals to brand new cities. Why shouldn’t the UK do the same and at the same time make its parliament less remote from the people?

  36. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    And their federal governments are not located in those cities, but rather their capitals. SINE NOMINE’s point was that London is the capital and the government should be based there – not that it should be the capital as it has the highest population. Your examples counter the latter.

    While capitals can move, it is painfully expensive to do so, and the cost only grows with time. I would be somewhat nice to have a “rotating” capital or a new one build in the middle of the country, al a Washington, but it is rather unfeasible.

  37. @Paul Croft

    “You’ve got me slightly concerned about ole Carfrew now Col, as I’ve just had a full check-up with my GP and he says I show [and I quote]:
    “No signs of ‘playing the victim’ syndrome”.
    I do have dodgy knees though [but I already knew that.]”

    ——–

    Oh, the knees!! Nice to see you’re not still carping Paul!!

  38. BARBAZENZERO

    Building a brand new city hardly rings of austerity, does it? More grandiosity, really.

  39. @Paul Croft

    The only city I have any affinity to is Leeds (I live five miles away).

    For years it suffered a lack of good concerts, as there was no decent venue of a good size. It was either pubs or Roundhay Park (which hosted U” and Madonna etc).

    We now have the First Direct Arena, which holds 13,500, and attracts top drawer artists.

    I think that for people in the north, Leeds and Manchester are significant places both economically and culturally, the South West probably Bristol, and the Midlands Birmingham. Scotland had Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen and my personal favourite Inverness.

    This is why I think serious regional autonomy would work. We don’t need to centralise to London as often as we do.

  40. @Catman

    Leeds has Opera North, and the Town Hall, which put on the Ring Cycle recently. Manchester has the Halle of course. There’s all sorts dotted about… saw Tom Jones at the Open air amphitheatre in Scarborough which is a cool venue. George Benson played his only UK date there the night before.

    You’re right, until the Arena, Leeds was light on big venues. There’s the O2 Academy which holds a couple of thou I think, but Manchester has a few… saw Shuggie Otis at the Manchester Academy last year.

    .

  41. SAM S @ BZ
    Building a brand new city hardly rings of austerity, does it?

    The closing of parliament to restore it and the location of the capital city or territory are different issues.

    Given that the Palace of Westminster could become a cash cow if managed sensibly, I don’t see why the Westminster parliament shouldn’t move to somewhere cheaper. A disused airfield and some cheap prefabs for accomodation could be made ready for them in a few months at most. That would be meaningful austerity.

  42. Placing the UK Parliament at the centroid of the UK would make sense.

    According to Wiki, that is a position “in the middle of Morecambe Bay”, approximately 1.5 miles (2.4 km) off the coast at Morecambe, Lancashire, at Ordnance Survey grid reference SD4157566760.

    Since the UK has (conveniently) two otherwise useless and expensive aircraft carriers, the cost would be minimal – just a bit of dredging work.

  43. @Carfrew

    Leeds is culturally on a different planet to ten years ago. My favourite was the Duchess of York, sadly demised. It was a great pub venue, but the carpet (mercifully unseen due to the darkness) was probably the most infested carpet per square inch on the planet.

    The Scarborough venue looks great, I’ve yet to see something there.

  44. Old nat

    Those two useless carriers will remain useless right up to the point you need them however placing parliament on a ship does have its merits as long as there is a tug on standby to tow it outside UK territory limits every time they make a dumb decision

  45. @Catman

    The Duchess was legendary. Saw Arthur Brown there, and Zappa’s original band the “Grandmothers” of Invention, with Jimmy Carl Black… (you prolly know Nirvana played there before they made it big).

  46. As the Two Johns pointed out, the carriers do have other uses…

    http://youtu.be/t0jgZKV4N_A

  47. Turk

    ” as long as there is a tug on standby to tow it outside UK territory limits every time they make a dumb decision”

    That will save on the dredging costs! Since “dumb decisions” are usual, the carriers can be permanently moored off the Virginia coast. That will also provide easier access to the Government’s decision makers.

  48. Paul Croft

    Best to concentrate on the knees I reckon.

  49. Carfrew

    Thanks for the link. So the carriers could also host Wimbledon! That’ll save the MPs and Lords having to hire limousines to travel to the tennis.

    The economic advantages of my plan are becoming greater and greater!

  50. Seriously, moving parliament away from London is the only conceivable way of rebalancing this unbalanced country(ies).

    Messing around moving junior civil servants and smelly government agencies to the provinces has no chance, as decades of experience has proved.

    I’d go for Liverpool because a) it’s as near to Morecambe Bay as any city b) it’s a port handy for NI and for ships to our new post-Brexit trading partners (Isle of Man, Greenland etc) c) it’s already the de facto capital of culture and football and d) I was brought up there e) it will be one in the eye for Mancunians.

    I like Stoke as a first reserve though

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