Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.

1,166 Responses to “Opinium’s final poll: CON 43%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 5%”

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  2. I believe the YouGov and Survation polls of 2 to 4% Tory lead are the only accurate ones ……which means the poll of polls is way out.

    The weightings of the other polling organisations are overestimating shy Tories and underestimating Labours vote turnout.

    The young vote …..will I believe cause the biggest upset in many a year …..certainly in my 40 years of voting.

    I can’t see it been anything but Corbyns night, whatever the weather.

  3. @WOODY

    One of them said to me, I’d rather lose money through paying more taxes than lose my civil liberties.

    As I said they are on the more libertarian side of things. I think that’s true of a lot of the younger conservative voter demographic.

  4. @Neil A
    it’s ‘bellwether’ – referring to the castrated ram (‘wether’) that was the leader of a flock and was traditionally collared with a bell so that shepherds could tell where the flock was headed…

  5. @WOODY

    He said to me, “I’d rather lose money through paying more taxes than lose my liberties.”

    Make of that what you will.

  6. @ALBERT

    Honda, so no.

  7. CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 36% (-)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 02 – 07 Jun)

  8. @ALBERT

    Swindon is where Honda is based and I don’t think promises made by gov will make the slightest bit of difference, as most people understand how much short term promises made by gov are worth in the long term – precisely nothing.

    Oh and for those people saying “seat x and y are going conservative, these are labour heartland seats it means a big conservative majority”

    or “seat w and z are going labour, these are conservative heartland seats it means a hung parliament”

    are missing the bigger picture. There are dynamics at play which mean both things are likely to happen. May has campaigned on a hard brexit and is highly likely to pick up strong leave labour seats such as Birmingham Erdington. Labour have campaigned on a soft leave and mobilizing the young, and is highly likely to pick up seats with high young populations and those that are highly dependent on trade with the EU such as Swindon South.

  9. Ok, so it looks like essentially no movement in the polls coming into the last day. A rather unexciting conclusion to one of the most dramatic (in polling terms) election campaigns ever!

  10. Hi AlexW

    Thanks for the response, I get it, in fact I think it encapsulates the problems with polls. When they said it, I am sure they meant it, but, tomorrow in the booth they will tick the blue box as long as their previous motivation to be a Conservative was strong enough. They will justify it by the fact that all she has said is that she will only do it if necessary to stop the terrorist threat and that at the time other MPs, the press etc can make it not happen. All this in my opinion of course.

    This is why I think polls suffer, they over assume that what they are told is true, which it almost certainly is on that day at that time, ie it is what the responder believes is true, that is why I think polls overestimate Labour and Lib Dem and Green because more people want to believe they have the values of those parties, face it they are nicer! In the booth enough reassess and vote Conservative to the create the change we tend to see. If they were polled again the next day I think those that change on the day would go back to saying Labour/LD/Green.

    In fact you could help me out, on Friday ask them again how they actually voted and why HRA did or didn’t affect their vote.

  11. I’m a long time lurker… and just for fun, this is my prediction:

    con 41%
    lab 39%
    libdem 9%
    green 3%
    ukip 1%

  12. CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    (via @TNS_UK / 01 – 07 Jun) Chgs w 30 May

  13. @SSimon very impressive what you are doing with the predictions list. A lot of effort to do that, well done and TY.

  14. @Woody

    I tend to agree.

    It’s a bit like practicing taking penalties before a big World Cup match. Every one carefully placed in the left side netting without any pressure on. Cometh the hour when it actually matters they change their minds and blast it to the right!

  15. Odds continuing to move in CON favour.

    No move in FX.

  16. ITV claiming to be the only channel covering each constituency and guaranteeing to be the first with each result (I guess except when on an ad break!).

    BBC were awful in 2015 so may give it a try

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