There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


616 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

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  1. Rich.

    Labour will present that as big success.

    You can see the excuses being lined up now.

    We only had a few weeks to prepare for the election
    UKIP helped the Tories to win.
    And some of our MPs undermined our great leader( we will win easily next time).
    And I nearly forgot- that small matter of Brexit coloured the voters views.

  2. @WB

    “On Sky News Adam Boulton says he has seen the set from the hall in Halifax, where the Tory manifesto is being launched at 11.15. He says there is no mention of Theresa May or “strong and stable leadership” on the branding

    Interesting?”

    Maybe the OMFG was they’ve sacked May?

    Seriously, I’m sure she will be there. Jeremy Hunt did the Breakfast show warm up for the manifesto and was fairly poor I thought (he was particularly bad on answering questions on the winter fuel changes where he said it would be only the poorest who would get it but they hadn’t put figures on it as they would consult on the proposals if in power – but they would save £2million from it – not clear at all and probably scared plenty people it wouldn’t even affect). may is the biggest asset and it would be really odd to not use her for the manifesto launch.

    They also showed the room to be used for tonight’s “Not the Leadership Debate” and made quite a point about May and Corbyn not being there – they paraphrased May’s reasons rather unfairly I thought . Most interestingly there are two empty podiums there and the invitation is stil apparently open.

    Is there an opportunity for Corbyn (or May) to turn up after all – high risk but a possible gamechanger for Labour?

  3. @julius

    Alec’s assessment of the impact of the Tory care policy on the Tory party’s core supporters seems very realistic. Do you dispute the assessment?

  4. Just on the timing of campaigns; widespread postal voting makes the building momentum notion trickier I guess?

  5. I am a born optimist trying to temper that, I am going for

    Con 43
    Lab 35
    LIb Dem 10
    Ukip 5

    Con maj 16
    Why did we have an election?

  6. @ROBIN

    My thinking is that in a system where people are expected to pay for their own social care – whether it be in a residential home or their own home – it seems to be strange that by far the biggest capital asset most people have is taken into account for some but not others. It is only when considering that current ‘unfairness’ that what May is announcing today is ‘fairer’. But its still a pretty bad system.

    Whilst I am a Con voter the proposal from Labour is better for adult social care in my view. I think it should be completely free at the point of need whether in a residential home or people’s own home, and the cost picked up through taxation and especially inheritance tax on the very wealthy. No person should have to worry about this during their lifetime.

  7. @Hireton

    It is not his assessment of the possible impact of the Tory care policy I take issue with. His posts appear to have an all too common and rather tedious theme of ‘good Labour’ ‘evil Tories’ and he makes very little effort to disguise his partisanship. He writes about the Labour manifesto as if it is perfect, totally realistic and deliverable whilst rubbishing every aspect of what may be in the Conservative manifesto. This site is meant to be used for non-partisan discussions about the polls rather than Corbynista, Brexit, anti-Brexit, Tory or any other propaganda.

  8. @SSSIMON

    Will there be a prize for the closest prediction?

  9. May has information on lockdown. I reckon there is a rabbit in the hat coming.

  10. @BARDIN1

    “Is there an opportunity for Corbyn (or May) to turn up after all – high risk but a possible game changer for Labour?”

    I’d wondered about May saying she’d do the debates at the last minute after secret training an practice, Corbyn would be forced into doing it with limited prep. However the Tory’s are miles ahead it would seem silly to embark on any high risk strategies.

  11. Trying not to be partisan here, but I do believe there’s a spot of poll hysteria breaking out.

    Firstly from the Tories, who were talking about a 50% result on election day, now Labour supporters believing Corbyn is edging towards number 10. Come on guys, let’s get real here.

    Neither of these two scenarios is realistic.

  12. Corbyn ignored immigration and social care. Smart move.

  13. “It is not his assessment of the possible impact of the Tory care policy I take issue with. His posts appear to have an all too common and rather tedious theme of ‘good Labour’ ‘evil Tories’ and he makes very little effort to disguise his partisanship. He writes about the Labour manifesto as if it is perfect, totally realistic and deliverable whilst rubbishing every aspect of what may be in the Conservative manifesto. This site is meant to be used for non-partisan discussions about the polls rather than Corbynista, Brexit, anti-Brexit, Tory or any other propaganda.”

    Well, well, well.

    That’s the first time (to my knowledge) that I’ve been classified as a Corbynista!

    Personally, I don’t recognise the above. I have been rather critical of aspects of the Labour manifesto, citing rather tired ideas on nationalisation and disappointment that they have fallen back on hikes in Corporation Tax instead of being much more imaginative and ditching this tax completely in favour of a profit tax based on UK turnover, and I don’t think I have made many other comments on specific Labour proposals.

    On the respective care policies, it should be noted that I am highlighting the similarities and differences between May’s 2017 policies and Labour’s 2010 policy. I don’t actually know what Labour’s current social care policy is.

  14. The Tories won’t poll higher than Blair in 1997. Blair was soaring above 50% consistently prior in opinion polls prior to the 1997 GE, in some polls he went as high as 55-60%.

    On the day itself of course, New Labour achieved 43%.

    The Tory manifesto looks like a miserable little document indeed. The social care policy and end of the triple lock will alienate core Tory voters. It seems to be a colossal tactical error, and an unforced one at that.

    Labour are narrowing the lead. They won’t win, but it would not be at all surprising to see a 1992 type result where Labour poll around 34% and the Tories 42%. In that instance, it is not at all clear that TM would increase her majority.

    It all depends, of course, on if Leave voters treat this GE as a re-run of the Brexit referendum. That remains to be seen.

  15. @ Bernard

    sorry Bernard apart from Rudyard (special case) which Labour supporters on here are referring to Corbyn in Number 10, the most I have picked up (except where tongues are firmly cheek bound) is that Labour might not be wiped out. I certainly feel that way much as would like Rudyard to be correct.

  16. @Colin – I would dispute that May’s care package helps the ‘just about managing’. It’s the people on very modest pensions who own their own homes that will be savaged by this – precisely the group I would define as ‘just about managing’.

  17. ‘Labour are narrowing the lead. They won’t win, but it would not be at all surprising to see a 1992 type result where Labour poll around 34% and the Tories 42%. In that instance, it is not at all clear that TM would increase her majority.’

    Let’s assume your figures are correct –

    42/34/8/6/3 look about right?

    Would show Labour losing just 15 seats. Nah, not credible.

    We’re also assuming UNS, and the marginal figures do not show that. I think you’re wide of the mark.

  18. Good morning to all on UK Polling.

    A very interesting evening when we were fortunate enough to have a surprise visitor from Labour HQ in London, who gave us the up to the minute information from central command.

    We learnt:

    Internal polling is very exciting, and has Labour around the mid thirties.

    The Tories are increasingly worried that the populace is seeing their campaign as repetitive and boring. Mrs May is not “fleet of foot” and cannot think “on the hoof” like Mr Cameron. She also lacks his warmth.

    Jeremy is enjoying the campaign and the personal attacks bounce off him.He feels a connection with the public and the plan for the last couple of weeks is to let Jeremy be Jeremy, and get him in front of as many voters as possible. This will be in stark contrast to the Prime Minister.

    We foot soldiers, we happy band, certainly left the gathering with a spring in our step and approach the door knocking and chatting with great vigour and a renewed sense of purpose.

    The YouGov poll this morning has also cheered us up as we set forth on the campaign trail these next few days and weeks.

    Definitely all to play for, I think.

  19. Ah, I see what you mean about Rudyard now.

  20. Smithson says if you don’t like numbers in IM poll “then it’s an outlier; if you do it’s a cracker”.

    Surely can only mean a massive jump in Labour number post manifesto.

    If so only two trajectories possible:

    1) Lab continue to make inroads over coming 3 weeks into Tory vote and it’s like 2015 maybe closer
    2) in last week most people make up their mind and give it to May in which case we have 1997 in reverse

  21. @Rudyard

    What news of Scotland?

    How is the Labour vote holding up here?

  22. Ipsos MORI

    Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)

  23. OMFG it’s the IPSOS/Mori poll

    CON 49 (=)
    LAB 34 (+8)
    LD 7 (-6)
    UKIP 2 (-2)

    Big jump for LAB but surely they were a bit under reported at 26% las time and LD were too high? UKIP on 2% is (I think) the lowest they have polled in the last 8-10 years?)

    Tories still 15 points clear. Not so much an OMFG IMO.

  24. Rudyard

    It must be a very unique place. I have seen a spreadsheet of a collection of feedback from voters to canvassers and to stall staff in a probably safe Labour constituency.

    I have to say it doesn’t match what you wrote, albeit not very miserable either.

  25. I told you guys about polling companies ramping their own polls. Hype.

  26. The tories do seem astonishingly complacent with their campaign. Sure – they have a stonking poll lead but still ….

    Corbyn is not milliband – milliband was hobbled by having to keep to a very cautious script and often spoke in half arsed sound, cringe inducing sound bites (“hell yeah – im tough enough!”). And the less said about the Ed Stone the better …
    Corbyn can just be himself – he’s not a great orator, but he is articulate comes across as someone who believes what he is saying.
    By contrast may – who is not great orator either – is just repeating her mantra at stage managed photo-ops whilst the campaign and its media supporters pile into Corbyn.
    The danger for the tories is that Corbyn ends up benefiting from the underdog, outsider label.
    The tories can only win – but – agasint expectations, the election may reuslt in the corbynite version of the labour party in the ascendancy and with policies that the public like. This may be a real challenge to the tories in 2022 when brexit will be done and dusted, they “own” the fall out and labour come back at them with populist left of centre policies and a new young leader.

  27. Not entirely hype – I think that 34% is Labour’s highest poll number of the campaign to date, although I would agree that there must be a strong element of reversion from a previous under representation.

    I also think we shouldn’t be quite so ready to dump on @Rudyard’s optimism.

    He is, clearly, a thoroughly biased poster, and may indeed part of a social media manipulation claim, but there is no doubt that Labour’s edging upwards and the sense that Labour has really come out fighting and had a ‘good campaign’ to date is inspiring activists on the ground.

    This can make a difference around the edges when we start looking at turnout on the day, especially if the mood infects otherwise disinterest Labour core voters.

  28. Some rather surprising economic news this morning:-

    “Retail sales have outstripped expectations to rise by 2.3% in April compared with the month before, thought to be in part due to good weather.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales were up by 4% compared with April last year, exceeding forecasts of 1% monthly growth and 2% year-on-year growth.

    It said: “Anecdotal evidence from retailers suggests that good weather contributed to growth.”

    However on a rolling three-month basis, which partially removes single month fluctuations, sales also picked up slightly.

    The ONS said: “The underlying pattern, as measured by the three month on three month estimate, showed a slight increase in April 2017 following a short period of contraction, increasing by 0.3%.”

    Average prices slowed slightly in April, falling from 3.3% in March to 3.1%.

    The pound jumped on the news, rising 0.5% to over 1.30 US dollars.

    Against the euro, sterling was 0.7% higher at 1.17 euros.”

  29. I like RUDYARD, its the optimism and bounce that I sense taking all in their stride looking for the best in everything

  30. On the Tory manifesto, I would tend to agree with @Colin that May is assuming older, better off voters will stick with her regardless, and so she is taking the opportunity to rectify some issues that have developed through the fear of upsetting the grey vote at successive recent elections.

    The triple lock really isn’t a good thing in the current climate (did you see that, @Julius?) nor are winter fuel allowances for rich pensioners. Enough said about the care package, but there is also a signal about taxes and her refusal to rule out rate rises.

    I imaging that few older voters would jump ship to back Corbyn on the basis of the Tory manifesto (although that should never be entirely discounted) which really only leaves two risks for May.

    With a huge lead still and a little dissatisfaction among older voters, some blue greys may not be as enthused to vote at all, affecting differential turnout.

    A second potential is that this opens up an avenue for UKIP to resurrect themselves, attempting to hoover up disgruntled Tories.

    I don’t see this second possibility as that likely to any great extent, but I would be interested to watch the age breakdowns for any sign of the former.

  31. The very consistent factor in recent polls is the Tory VI. Even including the latest Yougov, it is remained stubbornly in the mid to up forties. The Mori poll shows quite a bounce in the Labour vote but they will be concerned about the Tory VI nearing 50%. The reaction to the Conservative manifesto will be fascinating – will they achieve a similar bounce (in which case the election is probably dead and buried), or will the social care approach alienate some of their own.

  32. Alec

    Your figurative description of old age pensioners jumping ship almost cost the life of my old tablet :-)

  33. If the Tories poll 49% on Election Day everything else fades.

    This election will be about Brexit. The only thing from the manifestos that will resonate in the end is Tory commitment on immigration.

    Labour has largely avoided the debate about Brexit and immigration. Today that might be OK but when it comes to the crunch the vote will be mainly about Brexit( immigration control) the economy and the best leader. There is nothing in the polls to suggest that on all 3 the Tories and TM lead by a country mile.

    49% would be an endorsement of that.

  34. Well Smithson a bit guilty here of the rhetoric.

    This is still a landslide poll for the Tories…

    But it would mean disaster for Labour as there is NO way Corbyn is standing down if he gets anywhere near 34.

    If so it would likely mean a new centrist party and Tories romp home 2022 whatever happens with economy or Brexit in the interceding 5 years!

  35. @TOH – was just about to post the retail sales stuff!

    The movement of easter was also a reason for the big monthly jump, but is was still ahead of expectations, with as you say, very small pick up in the 3 month volumes.

    Interestingly however, those price figures remain significantly above official inflation figures. If retail sales prices are rising by 3.1%, that’s well ahead of he CPI.

  36. Can UKIP get as low as 2% even standing in only around half the seats?

    Con+UKIP 51% v 49% for the broad left.
    (Farrons LD on left for this analysis).

  37. @Porrohman

    I think its impossible not to like Rudyard. Although he is quite the most openly partisan poster on UKPR he is nonetheless the most polite and yet open enthusiast on the site. I am a dog lover and I am put in mind of my dog Smudge who, no matter what I do, what my mood is, what I wear or even what I vote, demonstrates his absolute love and loyalty for me constantly; I can give Rudyard no higher praise.

  38. Tories promising to make people show ID before voting.

    This is what Republicans do in the US to suppress turnout in poor areas.

    Anyone know the thinking behind this move?

    Do we have significant levels of voter impersonation here?

  39. Alec

    I just prefer to be optimistic and do all I can for a cause I believe in. Negative thoughts and comments always. I feel, rebound on those who think or say them – and life is too short for all that.

    Regarding the social media, I have never used it, would not know how to, and have no wish to. Far better to meet other people face to face and ha.ve a chat, in my opinion. In fact, I do think this obsession with the facebook et al will blow over soon enough. Having said that, the man from central command did say that the facebook was the new way of reaching lots of people who spen all day on their mobile devices but that’s not my department.

    I think the Mori poll confirms what I, and central command, are feeling – the Tories are wobbling and Labour are getting the message across. But lots of hard work to do.

  40. BBC reporting £8bn for the NHS in Tory manifesto now that would be OMFG

  41. Alec, I think Rudyard is real. I don’t think we see much deliberate organised or paid spamming here but rather involved and enthused people getting excited.

    A few cross the line with their repetitive mantras, even me and you at times, but I do find your rants well thought out and argued.

    I despair at the begging the question type stuff that invades the board at election times.

  42. That 51% is in both today’s released polls. Down from previous levels a bit. Could be just random as the 4 poll rule of thumb for a clear movement applies imo;
    next 2 interesting for that measure.

    Corby could just could be getting a few UKIP voters back with the arguably populist policies now leaving the EU decided and the UKIP voter disbursement may end up being a slightly smaller net gain for the cons.

  43. Rudyard

    Clearly the Mori poll confirms LibDems are wobbling and UKIP are wiped out, but the Tories are on 49%. If that’s a “wobble” then I think they’d be happy enough with it.

    What is also clear is that this is a two party race, and one is 15% ahead of the other right now.

    Away from the polls, I would agree that the Tories are wobbling – their campaign has been lacklustre so far, and they have failed to keep the conversation on Brexit, which was Labour’s major weak spot pre-campaign.

  44. I’ve been managing the long term social care for 2 very elderly relatives over the last few years so I’ve given a lot of thought to policy alternatives. I can see 4 possible ways of funding long term care.

    1.Out of current taxation. This seems to be the LibDem and Labour policy. It doesn’t take a lot a analysis of demographics to realise that this is just a case of kicking the can down the road. Chucking a penny on income tax or corporation tax doesn’t begin to address the needs of an ageing population. I;m not very impressed by the leaders of the “progressive” parties complaining about current provision when they don’t have the political courage to actually propose a solution.

    2. Compulsory social care insurance with the state picking up the cost for the poor. This would make a lot of sense but to work efficiently would require replacing the current system of NHS funding with an insurance system – like most of the rest of Europe. I can’t see that being politically acceptable any time soon.

    3. An estates levy – the “death tax”. One of my relatives spent several years in long term care which ate up around 90% of her assets. The other died in her late 90s without ever requiring to go into care and so paid nothing. The sheer randomness of that convinced me that a system of pooled costs is the most rational policy. Unfortunately the Tories killed that option purely for short term political gain and I don’t see it coming back any time soon.

    4. Deferred payment. This is the Tory policy. I can see a couple major benefits:
    – It gets over the short term nightmare of trying to fund care for someone with few liquid assets.
    – No need to sell a property when one partner goes into care.
    – It’s actually reasonably equitable. Because of the £1000,000 set aside, anyone without an estate of less than around £175,000 would end up paying less in care costs than with the previously proposed maximum long term care limit.
    It still means that those with larger estates would end up paying a lot but isn’t that a policy “for the many not the few”.

    From my own experiences I would give Theresa May 2 cheers. One for being the only party leader willing to take the political risk of proposing a long term solution rather than opting for expediency. The other for coming up with a policy that works. To get the third cheer the Tories would have to have put pooled risk in there somewhere.

  45. The interesting thing to me about that latest poll is that it looks as though Labour are gaining at the expense of Libdems. If it’s not just a rogue poll that suggests that the anti-Tory vote is coalescing around Labour (in E&W), and the LibDem second referendum policy doesn’t enthuse anyone.

  46. Ipsos/Mori is a dream scenario for the Tories: increased seats, next election pushed back to 2022, Corbyn remains Labour leader.

  47. Alec

    I agree, price rise still a problem but the recent rise in the £ against the £ will help and i expect this is just an inflation blip.

    Re the election i think you are correct that 34% is the highest so far for Labour and I for one fully expected a tightening the polls after the Labour manifest announcements. I don’t expect it to last.

    Listening to may at the launch she has just said in so many words that there will be no fudge, taking back control of our borders, money and laws. Just what Leavers want to hear, dissapointing for Remainers.

  48. Pete B, yes round here, Bristol East, the Libs usually get some posters up and we have had libs on the council in the past for wards in the area.

    As of yesterday when I walked dog and delivered some leaflets I am still yet to see one Lib poster.

    Few green posters and we had many last time.

    No conservative banners but they are usually a rare thing round here.

  49. May hasn’t really said much policy wise, is it coming!

  50. Labour 34% is a high water mark I reckon after the student union manifesto…

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