There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


616 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

1 6 7 8 9 10 13
  1. Statgeek

    To be fair “good” or “bad” coverage is much harder to determine impartially – though the UWS team made a pretty good job of doing that through a more sophisticated analytical procedure.

  2. Just received our energy bill from 6th March till 16th May, cost is as follows

    Gas : £114
    Electricity: £109,428

    It would seem the newly fitted smart meter is none too smart.

    Do you think they will let me pay in instalments? :)

  3. sorry

    TM might use tomorrow for a dig at Germany-just to rally the waiverers

  4. @Pete B

    You think the EU is the same as fighting a war? How many body bags have we brought back from Brussels?

  5. @bluebob what were you cooking!

  6. Ok, May updates so far:

    **********

    (32) TREVOR WARNE (6/5)

    Con: 51.8% (431)?
    Lab: 26.2% (141)?
    LD: 10.1% (10)
    ?UKIP: 2.9% (0)?
    Grn: 2.8% (1)?
    Oth: 5.5% (49)?

    Turnout 57%

    (33) NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN (7/5)

    Con: (435)
    Lab: (137)
    LD: (12)
    SNP: (41)
    PC: (7)
    Oth: (18)

    (34) THE OTHER HOWARD (9/5)

    Con: 43% (380)
    Lab: 28% (185)
    LD: 14% (12)
    UKIP: 5% (0)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    SNP: 5% (50)

    (35) BARDIN1 (9/5)

    Con: 41% (351)
    Lab: 31% (201)
    LD: 12% (16)
    UKIP: 6% (0)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    SNP: 5% (48)

    (36) MARCO FLYNN (#2 – 17/5)

    Con: 47%
    Lab: 30%
    LD: 11%
    UKIP: 3.5%
    Greens: 2.5%
    Oth: 5.5%

    (37) RP (17/5)

    Con: 46%
    Lab: 32%
    LD: 9%
    UKIP: 4%
    Grn: 3%

    (38) ANDY WILLIAMS (17/5)

    Con: 46%
    Lab: 32%
    LD: 9%
    UKIP: 4%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth: 7%

    (39) PORROHMAN (17/5)

    Con: 44%
    Lab: 32%
    LD: 8%
    UKIP: 2%
    Grn: 3%

    (40) BALDBLOKE (17/5)

    Con: 50.5% (415)
    Lab: 28.5% (152)
    LD: 9% (6)
    Grn: 2% (1)
    Oth: (76)

    (41) COUPER2802 (17/5)

    Con: 48% (383)
    Lab: 30% (186)
    LD: 9% (4)
    UKIP: 4% (0)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    SNP: 5% (55)

    (42) PETE B (#2 – 17/05)

    Con: 46% (388)
    Lab: 28% (178)
    LD: 12% (9)
    UKIP: 3% (0)
    Grn: 2% (1)
    SNP: 5% (52)
    Oth: 4% (18)

    (43) RICH (17/5)

    Con: 46% (378)
    Lab: 27% (189)
    LD: 11% (10)
    UKIP: 5% (0)
    SNP: 4% (50)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    Oth: 4% (21)

    (44) MORFSKY (17/5)

    Con: 51%
    Lab: 29%
    LD: 9%
    UKIP: 4%
    SNP: 3%
    Oth: 4%

    (45) CROY (17/5)

    Con: 52%
    Lab: 29%
    LD: 6%
    UKIP: 3%
    Oth: 10%

    (46) JAMIE (#2 – 17/5)

    Con: 48% (435)
    Lab: 28% (145)
    LD: 9% (7)
    UKIP: 2% (0)
    Grn: 4% (1)
    SNP: 4% (41)
    Oth: 5% (21)

    (47) JAMES MACKAY (17/5)

    Con: 45% (363)
    Lab: 33% (212)
    LD: 7% (6)
    UKIP: 4% (0)
    SNP: 4% (47)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    Oth: 4% (21)

    (48) CHRISLANE1945 (#2 – 17/5)

    Con: 52%
    Lab: 27%
    LD: 9%
    UKIP: 3%
    Oth: 9%

    (49) HARRYC (17/5)

    Con: 46%
    Lab: 29%
    LD: 8%
    UKIP: 4%
    Oth: 13%

    (50) DAVID WELCH (17/5)

    Con: 47%
    Lab: 30%
    LD: 9%
    UKIP: 3%
    Grn: 3%
    SNP: 4%
    Oth: 10%

    (51) RICHARD (#2 – 17/5)

    Con: 47% (384)
    Lab: 36% (184)
    LD: 5% (6)
    UKIP: 3% (0)
    SNP: 4.5% (52)
    Oth: 3% (6)

    (52) CHARLES STUART (17/5)

    Con: 48.5%
    Lab: 23.5%
    LD: 12%
    UKIP: 5%
    Grn: 3.5%
    Oth: 7.5%

    (53) DON’T-TELL-EM-PIKE (17/5)

    Con: 46%
    Lab: 31%
    LD: 11%
    UKIP: 4%

    (54) SSSIMON (#2 – 17/5)

    Con: 48% (415)
    Lab: 28% (153)
    LD: 8% (9)
    UKIP: 5% (0)
    SNP: 5% (47)
    Grn: 3% (1)
    Oth: 3% (25)

    Turnout 65%

    **********

  7. My prediction:

    Con: 41% – Can’t see them beating Blair in 97
    Lab: 31% – Which be hailed as a great victory, up there with Dunkirk [sic]
    LD: 11%
    UKIP: 5%
    SNP: 5%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth: 4%

  8. And UKPR’s hive mind average for May, with changes from April:

    **********

    Con: 47.3% +5.3% (397) +18
    Lab: 29.5% +3.5% (172) -7
    LD: 9.4% -4.9% (9) -11
    SNP: (48) -4

    Turnout 61% -3%

    **********

  9. Yougov poll

    Con 45
    Lab 32
    LD 8
    UKP 6

  10. UKIP surge?

  11. @steve
    UKIP will not achieve a result of six percent of the vote in the whole UK.
    They are standing in 378 seats only compared with 614 eeats two years ago which means that UKIP would be able to receive 10 percent of the vote in these seats. Unlikely.

  12. @Blue Bob

    You have been chosen (because of your user name) to be Jeremy’s ‘National Gridperson of the month’ for Electricity – congratulations

  13. @Bardin1 “You have been chosen (because of your user name) to be Jeremy’s ‘National Gridperson of the month’ for Electricity – congratulations”

    With that bill, it’s a surefire vote winner. Perhaps the interview can be held on the floor of a train for maximum effect?

  14. Oliver – you are right of course re UKIP and also within the others will be 2% or so for the Greens which is exaggerated as they are withdrawing from many seats as well in favour of the best placed ABT.

    I guess AV would have allowed UKIP and Greens to to stand everywhere?

  15. I’m sure many saying they will vote Green or UKIP in polling will not have a candidate to choose so their polling numbers will always be high or is this taken into account when the polling raw numbers are crunched?

  16. Not taken in to account.
    Is Modeo missing an ‘n’ and meant to be mondeo man?

  17. The new YouGov is the second poll to give the Tories a majority below 100 using Election Calculus. Ceratinly seems that Labour have moved up this week. Not surprising after more than a week of all Labour news and big promises.

    Personally I will be very surprised if they reach the same share of the vote they achieved in 2015. We shall see

  18. @couper2802 and @Alex

    “Pretty meaningless policy but makes her look tough on immigrants”

    …which may not go down we’ll with India and other countries which we want “turbocharged” trade deals with!

  19. For what its worth I have cash on an 84 seat majority……

    Which I suspect would be portrayed as a win by both red and blue.

  20. Which way? Whatever the result, it is always portrayed as a win by all sides.

  21. Lol…. Blue, Can’t see red getting within 50 seats

  22. @Blue Blob – your smart meter sounds like on of the ones causing real problems.

    Apart from numerous cases of catastrophic over reading, many of the smart meters are unsecure and can be hacked easily.

    I would advise anyone not to have a smart meter fitted until we see the next generation of secure and properly working meters come onto the market.

    One other point to check if you do decide to get a smart meter is to check whether the one your company proposes is widely compatible. There is a chance that by having a smart meter fitted you won’t be able to switch suppliers a their systems don’t always dovetail.

    The smart meter roll out has been a complete mess.

  23. I can only see the polls going one way for the next week or two. Labour have taken a deep breath and produced the most populist manifesto they could come up with – free stuff for everyone, paid for by “the rich” and “big business”.

    Some would say it’s the kind of manifesto that could only be written by a party who think they won’t have to enact it. But that’s what they said about Brexit. This kind of populism is… well it’s popular innit?

    And now, to compound it, it looks like the Tories are giving us a manifesto which, while possibly sensible and fair, is going to appear incredibly mean and harsh compared to Corbyn’s Giveaway.

    Personally, I would classify myself as pretty wealthy – both my wife and I earn very decent five figure sums – but Labour’s manifesto won’t cost me a penny. On the contrary, they’re giving me about £60,000 as we have two children coming up to University age.

    If I didn’t know better, I’d vote Labour.

    I think the polls will narrow to around 43-36 soon. After that, who knows.

  24. It does look like the Tory care plan is going to be a big issue.

    My understanding is that at present, if you go into a care home and have more than £23,000 in assets, including house, you need to pay the full costs until you reach that limit. If you need care at home, then you pay for this if you have more than £23,000, but this does not include the value of your home.

    The proposal is to have a single threshold of £100,000 for both, including the value of your home. This means that those needing residential care will pay less (although still far more than the £72,000 care cost cap Tories had at the last election) but those who need care at home – which is a far, far larger number – will pay considerably more.

    For both groups, the payment will be made after death from the estate, so no one need sell their house to pay for care costs.

    In this respect, it is precisely the same at the Labour proposal the Conservatives attacked as a ‘hated death tax’ in 2010 and that May again rejected out of hand earlier this year. The only difference is that under Labour’s plan everyone paid in a small amount from their estates after death in exchange for guaranteed free care at the point of delivery for all.

    There will be an awful lot of losers under this plan, and many will lose very considerable amounts. It’s also yet another example of May thrashing about in policy terms, switching and changing her mind with bewildering rapidity.

    It’s clear to me that she has not firm vision about pretty much anything, and says whatever comes to mind at the time, with seemingly no embarrassment about doing a complete 180 turn when it suits.

    In my view, not very strong nor very stable.

  25. It would be most interesting to see May explaining how an 84 seat majority for labour was really a victory for her party. But such are the difficult tasks party leaders get.

    But it shows everything is relative, because I am sure Corbyn would portray conservative 84 majority as a win for him.

  26. The snippers from CON manifesto that we’ve seen so far look disappointing (IMHO). A few items to ensure the UKIP vote but it looks like Spreadsheet Phil and the Right of the party have stopped May taking a free shot at the open goal in the Centre ground. It will probably keep the core CON vote (due to lack of alternatives) but not sure it’s enough to win the DKs and demotivate LAB turnout.

    Maybe leaking out the bad news first?

  27. @danny,

    erm nope i meant an 84 seat con majority

  28. At this stage, my election guide for beginners would be:

    Labour: Who wants a free owl!
    LibDem: If you want free owls, everyone has to pay a bit more income tax.
    Conservative: There’s no such thing as a free owl.

    Which of those three plays best with the average non-engaged voter?

  29. “Maybe leaking out the bad news first?”

    I suspect this is right. It deflates the issues and stops them dominating the headlines and spoiling the manifesto launch.

  30. The announcement of the GE was accompanied with a narrative that it was all about Brexit. As an opening gambit for Cons this was very successful with a bounce in their VI mirrored with a sharp drop in UKIP VI.

    Over the campaign the balance of the narrative has changes and it is now no longer just about Brexit. The leak of the Lab manifesto and then the actual launch has kept domestic issues to the fore. The leaks on the Cons manifesto are continuing this trend of a domestic focus.

    Regardless of whether Lab domestic policies are good or bad, the fact that the conversation is about domestic issues is good for Lab. It is a reminder that we are electing a government who have to deliver a domestic agenda alongside the Brexit negotiations.

    The continuing squeeze on LibDem VI is further illustration that for many Brexit is not going to be the sole determinant of their vote. There are other LibDem campaign problems, but the most fundamental is that they have misread the current mood (at least within the small pond they are fishing in).

    I suspect that the big Cons lead, and the perception that TM is the best available party leader to lead the Brexit negotiations is fostering a mindset that picking the team to lead on Brexit is a settled issue. Voters are now, focusing on what else they want.

    I still think that Cons will come out of this with a big lead, but if the narrative stays domestic, I would not be surprised to see UKIP VI bottom out, Cons VI to stall or edge back very slightly and Lab VI to gain another couple of points.

  31. The adult social care policy is interesting. About the only thing ‘good’ I can see is that there will no longer be the unequal treatment of those who go into residential care compared to those who stay at home. Instead of terrible for some and so-so for others, it’ll be bad for all.

    TREVOR WARNE – I’m sure you’re right, they are holding some kind of ‘nice’ policy back for the launch so May can the coverage announcing it herself.

  32. MIKE
    ” Labour have taken a deep breath and produced the most populist manifesto they could come up with – free stuff for everyone, paid for by “the rich” and “big business”. ”
    To do them credit, most commentators have not instantly assumed the Labour manifesto to be populist or opportunist, but as radically changing the economic structure of the UK.
    While, qua McCluskey, there may be a serious case for thinking that this gives Labour the possibility ot a major swing and an electoral victory, their strategy seems likely to go beyond this election, on major issues. This would provide a clearl alternative to a May/Hammond policy which is likely,, especially in the contedt of Brexit, to be both difficult and unpopular during a further Tory government.

  33. “I suspect this is right. It deflates the issues and stops them dominating the headlines and spoiling the manifesto launch.”

    if so, it’s a badly managed strategy. They’ve leaked ‘the bad stuff’ on the day of the launch, so that is what dominates the headlines.

    Re the contrast between Lab and Con manifestos. Cons are trying to portray this as ‘taking the tough decisions’ which is an interesting line for a party that refuses to promise no tax rises but declines to outline which taxes will rise. Lab, by contrast, have been very open in saying where the tax burden will hit. On that specific point, we should be able to agree that Corbyn has been distinctly more courageous than May in ‘taking the tough decisions’.

    Re the Cons social care announcement. Pondering this during my morning stroll, another key issue here is the equity of the policy.

    For elderly people needing some level of home care but who have good pensions and a home, they will be able to afford some or all of their care needs from their income.

    For those who have paid off the mortgage on a modest house but who have much more average pensions, the ability to pay for care from their income will be severely constrained, so these people will have to eat into their asset value. The result of this policy will therefore be to entrench inequality through the generations.

    The 2010 Labour plan, by contrast, would provide everyone with free care, which would then be paid for by spreading the burden to all but the lowest value estates after death, with a scaled payment based on the net wealth of the asset. In this way, it was far more equitable and ensured that no one would see their family inheritance whittled away.

    The people who ill be hit hardest by this policy are the middle to lower middle wealth holders, and it will be very painful for many of them.

  34. Any news on this “OMFG” Ipsos Mori poll?

  35. Another partisan post by Alec. Yawn.

  36. For me the most significant leaked policy is the continued slippage on Deficit clearance.

    Only in March, Hammond said by 2021/22. Now it is to be 2025/26

    Another 4 years of borrowing capacity-assuming they are still in power-and the amusing irony of a less “austere” Deficit reduction policy than Labour -who plan to clear the annual Deficit by end Parliament-2022.

    If this heralds relief spending for Public Services like Police/Schools/NHS which have now reached their limits -that will be a good thing.

  37. The latest YouGov has the Conservative lead down to 13%. At first glance this does not seem to be a Tory manifesto that will boost support. I wonder if we will see further narrowing of the polls as voters weigh up Corbyn’s goodies versus Maya’s tough choices.

  38. @ EXILEDINYORK – I agree. I’m sure Crosby has thought the CON campaign timetable through as @ BALDBLOKE mentions.

    Narrowing the lead in the polls might shock some complacency and put Corbyn PM risk in people’s minds? Still 3weeks to go…

    I suspect the final week will be back to Brexit in an attempt to motivate CONkip voters and demotivate potential LAB voters. I’m sure Juncker or Verhofstadt will oblige with a comment on the CON manifesto to tee up another of May’s “rallying” speeches for CONkip. I think the EU negotiating guidelines have to pass another layer of the EU cake next week as well… more fodder for the Murdoch press?

    FX and equity markets a little excited today so better refocus on those. CON seats dropped 2 (LAB+2) with the manifesto leaks which seems fair enough.

  39. @WB

    I suspect it will be a case of Labour closing the gap considerably given that their last poll had a Conservative lead of 23 points.

    My prediction:

    Conservative 45 (-4)
    Labour 32 (+6)
    UKIP 5 (+1)
    Lib Dem 10 (-3)
    SNP 4 (-)
    Green 1 (-)

  40. I think that an 84 seat majority for the Tories would suit TM fine.

    Corbyn could stick around and Labour could console itself that it put up a great manifesto and a great protest fight.

    What happens to LD is anyone’s guess, but they may struggle to get a decent leader out of what’s left.

    I am still waiting for the real headline policies from TM later today, accompanied by a massive broadside about keeping Corbyn away from the leavers of power and Brexit negotiations. We will see.

  41. “Narrowing the lead in the polls might shock some complacency and put Corbyn PM risk in people’s minds? Still 3weeks to go…”

    I got the first leaflet through the door yesterday. First thing I saw was the back page with a huge headline something like ‘Think Corbyn can’t win… think again’. So initially thought it was Labour leaflet. Turned it over, it was the Tory one, the ‘Corbyn win’ being a threat to get the Con vote out.

    Not sure that’s a great tactic, a Labour voter might see the back page and be encouraged to go and and vote themselves. Producing leaflets that might produce the opposite of the desired effect doesn’t sound like good tactics to me, but difficult to judge how people react.

  42. Colin,

    I agree that would be ironic.

    It would also fund significant additional spending on the Public Services.

    Manifesto promises from TM later today maybe.

  43. SSSimon
    my predictions based on current averages

    Conservative 372
    Labour 204
    Lib Dems 9
    SNP 43
    PC 3
    Others 19

  44. Let’s face it, on current polling the only manifesto which matters is the Conservative one, and I fear the government mind is so fixed on Brexit that they don’t have well thought out policies on many other important issues.
    The big danger of a large Conservative majority (coupled with an opposition that seems unable to do the right sums) is that policies ill-planned in detail will be hustled through.

    @Alec MODIFIED “The people who Will be hit hardest by this policy are the CHILDREN OF middle to lower middle wealth holders, ”
    I wait for the Green Paper small print to see how the surviving partner is dealt with in a scenario of caring at home for some long time, but the joint estate then having to meet the costs of final care.

  45. 84 seat majority bad for May? How Labours expectations have fallen!!

    I wonder if there is going to be a rabbit in the hat in this manifesto? It does all seem quite dry up to now. It’s like the opposite end of the spectrum to Labours sweetshop and free puppies for all.

  46. On Sky News Adam Boulton says he has seen the set from the hall in Halifax, where the Tory manifesto is being launched at 11.15. He says there is no mention of Theresa May or “strong and stable leadership” on the branding

    Interesting?

  47. @Colin – another alternative reason for the slower deficit reduction path might be not more spending on services, but recognition that Brexit could be more painful than first assumed?

  48. “or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support.”

    But I wonder if the polls are over-estimating Tory support. We haven’t seen a party win more than 45% of the vote since Ted Heath in 1970, and in that election the Liberals only stood in just over half of the constituencies, making it a two-party choice for about half of all voters.
    Back in 1997 Blair was polling at over 50% in some polls just a couple of days before the election, and recording leads over the Tories of more than 20% but he actually won only 43% of the vote, and a lead of 12.5%.
    Couple this with the fact that pollsters have a tendency to heard, and that they have all recently adjusted their polling because of the bias in 2015 (which may mean they have over-compensated), and what we might see in June is not so much that Labour do worse than predicted, but they they do significantly better, at least relatively.

  49. ALEC

    Yes-of course. In which case they are being more cautious than Labour on the speed at which UK’s economy will eliminate annual State borrowing.

    re your comments on Cons’ Care policy & -“The people who ill be hit hardest by this policy are the middle to lower middle wealth holders, and it will be very painful for many of them.”.

    Absolutely-a glimpse of two elements of May’s politics:-

    * She means to favour the “just managings” -if necessary at the expense of the comfortably off .
    * She currently has confidence that the latter will still vote Conservative.

  50. @Baldbloke

    There is nothing “fair” about treating people who live at home the same as people who go into residential care. The costs of the latter are obviously higher and, within the (arguably) malign logic the Tories are applying, those cared for at home should get some sort of benefit.

    Of course, there is also nothing fair about the costs of care falling randomly on those who happen to suffer at the hands of fate. The point about “social” care is in the name. Tory policy effectively privatises the costs of social care for almost anyone owning their own home.

    An effective slogan might be: Vote Conservative, you have nothing to lose but your inheritance.

1 6 7 8 9 10 13