There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


616 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

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  1. SSSimon.
    Thanks.
    Cons 52
    Lab 27
    Libs 9
    UKIP 3
    BAR OTHERS= 9

  2. SSSIMON
    Thanks for the average. I’ve put a fiver on majority of 100-124 at 6-1.

  3. What are the odds on omfg actually meaning omfg, as opposed to “oh is that it?”

  4. TW

    For me, What about removal of prescription charges in England.

  5. Carfrew

    When do we expect the omfg poll to be released?

  6. Remember these pollsters want to drum up hits and discussion about their polling. I’ll guess it’s either Labour short term 34%, or it’s the other way and it’s Tories at 50%.

  7. Con 46

    Lab 29

    LD 8

    Ukip 4

    Other 13

  8. Andy T

    Presumably omfg polls aren’t “released”.

    They are “revealed” (but with that kind of god, only once s/he has had a post-coital cigarette).

  9. omfg could always be a total collapse fo LD or UKIP. Or indeed a resurgence.

  10. @Peter Cairns
    @Old Nat

    In World War 2, I would have put us, the Americans and the Russians in the first three.

    My dad always told me that the Japs and the Germans came last. Not sure about the Italians…

  11. @Alberto,
    An interesting point of view I guess, perhaps exactly what John McDonnell thinks.
    I rather think that maintaining belief in a currency counts for something.
    There are plenty of historic examples of currencies being trashed, and the result is not pretty for those that live in the country using such, and it is the poorest that suffer most.

    omfg, how long until I find out what the poll shock is!

  12. omfg

    only meaningful for geeks?

  13. omfg

    Obviously May feels great ?

  14. @ Millie

    You mean he’s speaking our language?

  15. There’s still three weeks and the polls are not moving to any great extent. Manifesto week has not been that good for the Labour party despite the popularity of some of their policies. I think its right about some Labour voters who despite their reservations about Jeremy Corbin will not leave their traditional voting patterns. What about Scotland? I think it remains the most interesting and perhaps uncertain out come. Will the Tories fare better north of the border or will the SNP band wagon surprise us all.? We’ll just have to wait and see..

  16. @Robert D

    Ben Page of Ipsos Mori tweeted that he expected the poll to be published tomorrow or Friday.

  17. @ED Jones

    The tories will certainly perform better and the SNP worse than 2015, the question is really by how much

    I think we haven’t really seen the manifesto effect yet – polls tomorrow and Friday should be the judge of that. Labour got reasonably positive coverage in the broadcast media for it. It will be a good test of whether they can reclaim some of those who have gone to the tories.

  18. My prediction. I`m assuming the Tory manifesto won`t have measures to pull in wider support, like removing the 1%-a-year public-sector salary cap.

    Cons 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 9%
    SNP 4%
    Grn 3%
    UKIP 3%
    Oth 4%

  19. Carfrew,
    ” The banks themselves didn’t realise they were buying junk”
    Sure about that? Arguably a deduction counter to the cook’s deconstruction of the cakes. At university I had a supervisor who used to work on secret stuff. He told me a story, about at some conference a Japanese came in to proudly present a paper about a new discovery. Didnt go as well as expected.

  20. Judging by what Ben Page said in a follow up tweet to his ‘omfg’ comment (when asked about the forth coming IPSOS Poll)… I’d say it’s positive news for the Conservatives.

    As Twitter user called Kush Movement asked…

    – Could we see a rise in Labour seats?

    Ben Page response was…

    – No

    So I’d say his ‘omfg’ comment hints at the Conservatives breaking the 50% barrier.

    See what you make of it, here is the link…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KushMovement/status/864920904316235777

  21. @Bardini

    I’m not sure the SNP will do worse. Yes the Tories will improve at the expense of Labour but I think the SNP vote will hold up well.

  22. MORI’s polls are for the Evening Standard, so don’t expect anything tonight (and I think Ben said Thursday or Friday anyway)

  23. @SSimon

    Thanks. Some major revisions to my earlier prediction.

    Tories 47% (384)
    Labour 36% (184)
    SNP 4.5% (52)
    LD 5% (6)
    UKIP 3% (0)
    Others 3% (6) (incl speaker)

  24. As people seem to be having fun, I’ll make a prediction.

    Con 48.5%
    Labour 23.5%
    Lib Dem 12%
    UKIP 5%
    Greens 3.5%
    Nats, NI and others 7.5%

    I don’t know how this would turn out in seats but I had a dream that the Tory landslide would be the biggest in seats since the National Government in 1931 and the biggest share of the vote since 1970, possibly 1951. Turnout 74%+/-2%. I’m just posting this so I can claim my $1 million if it’s right!

  25. I meant to add this link, just in case anyone else wishes to put in a claim:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Million_Dollar_Paranormal_Challenge

  26. Conservatives are going hard on immigration in the manifesto apparently. Extra curbs.

  27. In his tweet he refers to “looking at interims” before his omfg. What does he mean by this?

    Excuse my ignorance please

    My guess is the 3% margin of error has gone for the Tories and they show at 51 or 52%

  28. The Tories will promise further measures to curb immigration in their manifesto, the BBC understands.
    Firms will be asked to pay more to hire migrant workers and they in turn will be asked to pay more to use the NHS.

  29. northernruralmodeoman

    ” the BBC understands.” = “Governing party briefs state broadcaster as to what to say”.

    BBC to remake “Till Death Us Do Part” with Alf Garnett as the hero upholding British values?

  30. @MORFSKY

    In Ben Pages own words, interims –

    ‘It’s when you haven’t finished the study but have enough data to see how it’s turning out/check profile etc’

  31. It is being reported that May will be tough on immigration.

    BBC is saying that firms employing non EU workers will have to pay more.

    But what happens after March 2019? I could have sworn I heard we are leaving the EU? Why are we defining our future migration policy on EU membership terms?

    ‘Strong and incoherent’?

  32. I’d beware of assuming Ben Page’s one word answer ‘no’ to the question ‘could we see a rise in Labour seats’ might see the Tories over 50 percent.
    I think it’s more likely he’s comparing the poll projection of Labour seats with the last election and that would mean a possible 6 to (more likely) 10’ish point Tory lead.
    If (a big if!) it was at the lower end, we would be within a whisker of a margin of error dead heat and an utter Tory panic…

  33. @ Morfsky

    According to Ben Page
    Looking at interims means
    “It’s when you haven’t finished the study but have enough data to see how it’s turning out/check profile”

  34. @CIDERMAN

    Also when Ben Page was asked…

    – Could we see a rise in Conservative seats

    He replied..

    – You Jester!

    So we shall just have to wait and see. Link…

    https://www.twitter.com/markgmcdermott/status/864943689273139200

  35. I think if Labour lost just one seat it would be something of an omfg election result.

  36. Omfg, the Ldems are on zero?

  37. A very interesting briefing on the Tory manifesto here – https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/17/theresa-may-conservative-tory-policy-older-people-pay-for-social-care

    Not too sure yet, but this could be quite a big story. It has the ring of a really unpopular move, being trumpeted as a leading part of the manifesto. It’s is likely to heavily criticised by traditional Con voters I would have thought, and May seems to be working on the basis that they won’t switch as the UKIP threat is defunct and Corbyn a no hoper.

    I’d say this is risky, but on the policy itself, I’m baffled. May rejected out of hand the easiest option, which was to share the burden via a levy after death on all estates, to fund a proper social care service. That was the only funding option she rejected in advance of her own review, labeling this ‘Labour’s hated death tax’.

    Now she is proposing her own death tax, which is based on precisely the same principle, except it will only be paid by those unfortunate enough to need to services required and there appears to be no pooling of risk.

  38. @Alec

    “It is being reported that May will be tough on immigration.
    BBC is saying that firms employing non EU workers will have to pay more.”

    The Telegraph has handy bullet points.

    The big deal (for me) is that the Tories say they plan to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands but will not set an “arbitrary” deadline for achieving this objective. So there is NO clear, measurable committment to reducing immigration! I wonder what Ukip-Tory voters think about that?

    Firms employing non-EU workers will have to pay £2,000 per applicable worker per year, rather than £1,000 per year.

  39. I’d have thought a highly skilled person with critical skills could bring that much to a business, £2K per annum is no deterrent.

  40. @RAF – I get that, but how does that stack up after we leave the EU is 2 years time?

    Is May setting out different rules for EU and non EU workers even after we’ve left? That would get very close to a race based migration policy. Or is she thinking about a migration deal with the EU? If so, has she told UKIP?

  41. Very sad news from the world of politics.

    Former Welsh First Minister Rhodri Morgan has passed away.

  42. Alec

    I read your link, but it didn’t say if the social care proposals were for England only. (English/UK parties are frequently shoddy in describing who their policies will apply to).

    One would normally assume that such proposals were limited to the UK Government’s current area of responsibility, but they may be planning changes to those as well.

  43. @Alec

    “Is May setting out different rules for EU and non EU workers even after we’ve left? That would get very close to a race based migration policy. Or is she thinking about a migration deal with the EU? If so, has she told UKIP?”

    It’s really difficult to say. I suspect TM wants to keep open the prospect of a migration deal with the EU.

  44. @Catmanjeff

    Or, as it more likely, the company will just relocate the jobs to where the workers are, as anyone who has worked in a ‘back office job’ at a large multi national company knows first hand in the last 10-15 years.

    Cheaper wages, and now no extra employment tax in the other country. It just makes the decision easier for them.

    That’s how the Indian outsourcing industry was born. The USA added these large employment taxes for H1B1 workers (they called it a training levy to train up US workers) , and they limited the number of visas, so companies just moved their IT departments to India.

  45. @Alec

    Can make firms pay more for EU workers because firms are already squealing that not enough EU workers etc. So double for non-EU which is the skilled migrants & a negligible amount in the context of hiring skilled workers. Pretty meaningless policy but makes her look tough on immigrants

  46. First word ‘Can’t’ not can

  47. Cons manifesto seems balanced and realistic to me. Not exciting, but stable. Opposite of the Lab one which clearly was big on spending, if I can be polite.

  48. Interesting analysis from Loughborough University of media coverage of the parties in this election.

    http://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/general-election/ge2017-the-media-campaign-report-1/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ge2017&utm_content=coverage#coverage

    “We analysed all election news found in the television programmes. For the press, we included election news found on the front page, the first two pages of the domestic news section, the first two pages of any specialist election section and the page containing and facing the papers’ leader editorials.”

  49. Phillip May politician? So ware turning Presidential with a First Gentleman

  50. @Oldnat

    Semi-interesting, but does not address levels of ‘good coverage’ or ‘bad coverage’, i.e. the media taking a government stance, or being anti-indy etc.

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