There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


616 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

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  1. What is it with the left, watching the Tory manifesto launch and outside is some guy shouting on a megaphone, clearly trying to drown any talk out.

    I’m all up for debate but why do they insist on trying to shout people and debate down, I truly hope we do not go the way of America.

  2. @Blue Blob – I think he is complaining about his electricity bill.

    :)

  3. @ TOH

    I agree there was a very clear “no back-sliding” message to shore up the Leaver part of the Cons VI, combined with a bit of a play for pragmatic centrist voters.

    Some sensible shedding of Cameron era baggage like the triple lock on pensions and the lock on income tax. These are millstones that a government can do without, and a big poll lead is the time to shed them.

  4. BLUE BOB
    What is it with the left, watching the Tory manifesto launch and outside is some guy shouting on a megaphone, clearly trying to drown any talk out.
    I’m all up for debate but why do they insist on trying to shout people and debate down, I truly hope we do not go the way of America.

    @Bob,

    It’s the same as Facebook. Labour page is left alone by Tory voters, go to Conservative page or Theresa May page and it’s just infiltrated by bile.

    Just saw a shot of some guy on a megaphone screaming and swearing outside the launch giving it the finger. The compassionate left eh!

    Rich

  5. @ THE MONK
    Thanks for that post. It’s always useful to have a considered opinion from someone directly affected. It allows you to see more quickly the pros and cons. My wife and I are approaching joining that ‘club’ but not quite there yet.
    A general comment on manifestos: it’s Acts of Parliament that really count, and if a manifesto ‘commitment’ is modified after thought, discussion and even amendments in Commons and Lords, that may be no bad thing and you might even get to three cheers.

  6. That’s why I can’t stand left-wingers (even though I am not remotely right wing)

  7. Is it too late to join the UKPollingReport GE2017 prediction game? I reckon:-
    Con 41%
    LAB 36%
    LIB 10%
    UKIP 4%
    Admittedly that is largely wishful thinking but I think a lot of the voters moving from LAB>UKIP>CON are not really solid Con supporters and might not turnout on election day. Labour support has been rising steadily for the past 20 days – if that continues at the same rate 36% is possible. I also think a lot of voters who previously failed to turnout are more likely to do so for a more radical manifesto and leader.

  8. I’m quite sure that this manifesto (read some parts carefully, while just flicking through others) fits very nicely the Conservative strategy (Brexit-centric and aiming for a kind of centre ground. So, NE, Midlands, Wales remain precarious for Labour (so they should be glad that people don’t read manifestos).

    With a relatively friendly press probably those points will be emphasised that suits the strategy.

    IMO it takes head on most of Labour’s points better than Labour, perhaps with the exception of the NHS. Mind, this is more of a professional opinion than effects on polling.

  9. It seems to me looking at what the institute for fiscal affairs and other bodies are saying, that the Lab proposals are way more than the £58bn they are saying and actually more like several hundred billion. Can this realistically be funded without damaging the economy?, seems hard to believe.

  10. @TINTINHADDOCK “Ipsos/Mori is a dream scenario for the Tories: increased seats, next election pushed back to 2022, Corbyn remains Labour leader.”

    I would agree if that ends up the case. But surely 34% is not possible. We’re talking about a Labour Party in open civil war with a front bench whose reputation for competence has been questioned in almost every quarter.

    Corbyn on 34%?

    I can’t get my head round that.

  11. SW

    I think that you will get good odds on Labour hitting 36%.

    As for Tories on 41% there would need to be a very significant shift( not sure manifestos will change much either way).

    If you are right, then we are left in a very strange place. Perhaps change both leaders and cancel Brexit.

  12. Sea Change

    Some of the Labour MPs work very hard in their constituencies, it has nothing to do with Corbyn, but could push up the vote share, even if I also think that 34% looks very unlikely.

  13. @Laszlo “Some of the Labour MPs work very hard in their constituencies, it has nothing to do with Corbyn, but could push up the vote share, even if I also think that 34% looks very unlikely.”

    Yes, that’s true, but they can’t work that hard can they to overturn Corbyn’s basement ratings?

    I remember all the talk of sitting Lib Dem MPs bucking the polls and would hang on to the seats in 2015. In the end, the tsunami wiped them out.

    The question that remains unanswered is the Lab turnout. Are moderate Lab voters and Lab leave voters who say they vote Labour when polled really going to turn out en masse for Corbyn even if they have a good MP?

    Versus the Brexit crew who I believe will are going to turn out with bells on.

  14. No evidence for this but my theory on the Labour rise is the opposite of shy Tories. It is “wishful thinking Labour” or possibly “unrealistic Labour”. I still think that a lot of people want to feel that they are caring, thoughtful people who wouldn’t want to endorse the Tories or “be a Tory” so in their minds they are still Labour and will anser polls in that way. On the day, in the polling booth, they will vote Tory, just like in 2015 when Crsby predicted “crossover” on the day or even in the polling booth.

    Polling will never pick this up because if you ask the same person again afterwards they will say they would vote Labour again tomorrow.

  15. It would be interesting to know where the -2% UKIPers went – to CON (in which case CON would be losing a little) , LAB coming back home or not voting because job is done.

    Other than that the poll seems consistent with others recently showing a steady but slow (the LAB version of strong and stable) rise in the Labour vote at the expense of the other non CONs

  16. Electoral Commission has posted donations so far for the main parties:

    2.7 Million Labour (almost all from Uncle Len apparently)
    4.1 Million Tories

  17. @ AndyT
    YouGov’s latest poll has the Conservatives on 45% so I’m only predicting 4% less than that. Like I say, it’s largely wishful thinking, but if the Tory Manifesto just says StrongStableRedWhiteBlueBrexit I think it might put a few people off. There’s also the matter of Theresa May refusing to debate. I don’t think that will make a huge difference but there’s maybe a %point or so to be lost there.

    Is there any way of telling from the polls (or research) whether people who have switched allegience are as likely to turnout as those who have stayed with the same party? i.e. Is there anyway to show whether UKIP defectors to the Tory party are as solid as the rest of their vote?

  18. @Rich

    “It seems to me looking at what the institute for fiscal affairs and other bodies are saying, that the Lab proposals are way more than the £58bn they are saying and actually more like several hundred billion. Can this realistically be funded without damaging the economy?, seems hard to believe.”

    —————-

    Spending in the economy isn’t just a cost, it lets people buy more which can stimulate growth and leave us better off. It’s not a blank cheque but can’t say more… Google “multiplier effect” etc. (Welfare spending offers a multiplier of around 0.5, infrastructure can be a lot more.)

    It’s how we got past much bigger debt after the war…

  19. The number of parliamentary seats for Corbyn’s Labour on June 9th …

    For the few, not the many.

    Labour manifesto promises actually costed …

    Just a few, but not many.

    Voters who actually like Corbyn …

    A couple, hardly any.

    This is a joke by the way!! Not partisan comment.

  20. Sea Change

    “I remember all the talk of sitting Lib Dem MPs bucking the polls and would hang on to the seats in 2015. In the end, the tsunami wiped them out.”

    It is a very valid point, and my views are probably clouded by a particular constituency of a Lab majority of around 6,000. Effectively it ditched all central HQ points, it is a very, very anti-Tory campaign, it has a good method of picking up voters concerns (both real life, and political), code them, develop a script and go out with that. They also got rid of the decentralisation of the campaign (to wards), and with this they significantly constrained the [insert] people whose main activity was sabotaging. It is a very broad coalition (even ex Com, but somehow none of the Corbynites, well, there is one).

    Just to return to your point – thanks for the tip ;-) – nobody has come up with this concern in that constituency.

  21. Anecdote warning.

    In my close circle of friends are a couple of ukip supporters and their VI is very volatile both have voted tory lab and ukip.

    We dont have a ukip candidate this time, one is going lab and the other green i think or conservative.

  22. @Andy T

    “This election will be about Brexit. The only thing from the manifestos that will resonate in the end is Tory commitment on immigration.”

    You mean the aspiration to reduce it to the tens of thousands by some mythical unspecified point in the future? Sincerity, I struggle to see how people see this as a committment, let alone a pledge. The Tories are effectively refusing to guarantee immigration will fall by the time of the next General Election, and former Kippers are rallying to that cause? I agree that is what’s happening, I just don’t understand why!

  23. I understand that it’s hard to imagine a 34%+ vote for a Labour Party which is engaged in a civil war, but the manifesto is very seductive.

    The populist approach of offering policies that make people feel good about themselves, but at no cost to them individually, is clearly a winner. It’s the electoral equivalent of virtue signalling. Especially as you can bash a banker at the same time. The Lib Dems, offering perhaps a more considered and properly costed set of left-of-centre policies, but at a cost to all, is proving disasterous in the polls so far, their vote decamping en mass to Labour.

  24. @Laslzo

    Happy to help!

    That does sound like a sensible local strategy. But also reinforces my point about the damage Corbyn is doing to Labour’s chances. And what does it mean for the new Parliament if Labour MPs are openly defying the leadership but then have to work with an empowered Corbyn assuming he does better than Milliband.

  25. Sea Change, I cant find the poll, but I recall a poll of voters v recently that showed JC performing highest compared to TB YC and a few others as regards lab vi.

  26. RAF

    Because that is what they want to hear.

    My point was that Labour have steered clear and that is definitely not what a lot of UKIP and Labour leaning voters want to hear.

    TM is playing the trust me card which so far from the polls is working very well when compared to Corbyn or Farron.

  27. In previous elections LD (pre 2015) and UKIP (2015) had high %s. LD+UKIP+NAT+Others might end up around 20% (maybe even lower) this time. To get to 100% CON+LAB might need to sum to 80% (or higher). In the latest YouGov CON+LAB = 77% and UKIP are up at 6% (NB UKIP number will be 1/3 lower on 8June simply due to pulled candidates, that 1-2% drop will have to show up somewhere even if indirectly via abstain and lower turnouts everyone gets gets a small bump up in % terms)

    If turnout overall is lower it is very reasonable to assume LAB can hold on to 30%+. Less votes than 2015 but around the same %.

    Tracking the VI versus 2015 vote (whilst acknowledging the small sample in crossbreaks) shows what most of us probably expected – LD drop is going to LAB. LAB seem to be really locking in the youth vote. LD still has highest level of DKs. I’m not a believer in “floors” of support but in terms of ‘loyalty’ LD could bleed out their switch-in voters and continue to lose some support to LAB (and Green). Aside from a handful of seats LD is a ‘wasted vote’

    Latest YouGov link here, expect new thread soon:
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/txtodyx8bk/TimesResults_170517_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

  28. It’s more of an OMFAINS pill, innit?

    OMF Actually It’s Nowt Special…

  29. @ Carfrew
    Huh???

  30. To be really special it has to omfgwtf.

    WB, it’s the poll tweet from y day.

  31. MIKE
    I think the drift from LD to Lab pre-dates the manifesto leak. There is more to it than policies.
    IMO it’s ABT voters deciding that Labour are the only party that can challenge the Conservatives. I suppose the effect of the manifestos has lead to the latest small increase in Lab VI, and may be due to returning DK and increased likelihood to vote.

  32. So Corbyn is now saying that the new tax rates will be gradually introduced over the time of Parliament …

  33. @Carfrew
    Which poll are you talking about, the Mori poll or today’s YouGov? They both have Labour on their highest VI so far. It’s not that dramatic but it is still a bit special – a 5point closing of the lead in a few days (YouGov) is enough to get the Conservatives a little bit concerned.

  34. The OMFG is from the mori poll.

  35. Interesting to see a piece in the DT characterising May’s care proposals as an attack on inheritance (which is precisely what it is) while at the same time Andrew Dilnot who formerly advised the government of this issue has said that the proposals leave pensioners completely on their own and shows that the government are failing to understand the issue.

    His view is that the unwillingness to provide a ceiling on individuals liabilities means that it won’t be possible for the private sector to develop suitable insurance products, as the commitment (and therefore risk) will be completely open ended. I suspect there is also a major risk that left to pay bills out of the inheritance, with no government intervention or control, the private care sector will simply see the dollar signs and price up, knowing they have an unbreakable future charge against a housing asset. A collective system where government has some role in purchasing the supply would have given some measure of market influence.

    Again, this will proportionately hurt those families who have a little, but not that much. Residential care costs around £30,000 a year, which is affordable for richer pensioners out of their income. Non residential care is obviously much cheaper, but again it’s far more likely that more wealthy pensioners could afford this out of their income.

    Pensioners on average and lower incomes won’t be able to cover the costs without signing away large chunks of their assets, which means that the gap between rich and the rest will just get more pronounced and the ‘squeezed middle’ will pay the relentless price.

  36. how is Corbyn damaging labours chances if he ends up increasing their vote share – potentially to more than what Blair got in 2005?

    I dont think there is any mystery to labours improvement – people like the policies and corbyn has a lot of young, enthusiastic support (thousands turn up to cheer him whenever he appears in public). He is very much a “marmite” figure.

    I dont think “senisble” labour campaign led by the likes of Burnham or Cooper would be doing better – probably worse, as it would very little positive enthusiasm behind it and would be less likely to poach voters from the greens and abstainers. Labour now have a clear identity and political position – rather than the (failed) policy light, sound bite driven, opportunism of the past.
    Social democratic parties have been under the cosh for the past decade accross the developed world – challenged by resurgent nationalism from the right and rejuvenated socialists from the left. What we are seeing in the UK is a slightly milder version of the same dynamic – but rather than new parties, the old parties have reinvented themselves to fit the demands of these forces.
    If there was such a demand for “moderate centralist” (but pro-market) politics – how come the lib dems are doing so badly?

  37. @BLUE BOB’s bill

    Now that explains how John McDonnell’s numbers add up!

  38. “The populist approach of offering policies that make people feel good about themselves, but at no cost to them individually, is clearly a winner. It’s the electoral equivalent of virtue signalling. Especially as you can bash a banker at the same time.”

    If you constrain the banks so they can only lend for capital development and home loans, and thereby reduce their presence and political power, then that creates the space for government purchases and action – without altering any tax rates.

    That’s how money works. Government is a particular type of bank, so to make space it just needs to stop the other banks doing daft things.

  39. @Stephen Wheeler

    I don’t dispute there is a shift. It’s just not necessarily OMFG!!

    It’s more OTHBABoAS, I.e.

    “Oh There Has Been A Bit Of A Shift”

  40. @WB

    “Huh?”

    ——–

    INHJAA

    “It’s not hard, just another acronym…”

  41. Rich, you’ve obviously not seen our Clacton Labour Paryy candidate’s page. It is full of the most objectionable bile from right wingers and all apparently because she doesn’t think that immigrants should be hung, drawn and quartered the minute they step foot on English soil. She also has a member of UKIP following her around everywhere she goes with a video camera filming everything she does and shouting at her in the street and even outside her house.

  42. Seems a pretty big moment to me – My eyesight’s not great but reading through the table of previous polls looks like the biggest LAB % since September 2015, which seems important in the middle of an election campaign, especially given the ‘dead duck’ labels given to Corbyn at the start of the campaign.

    @Reggieside – I agree with your analysis re alternative leaders and where social democrats find themselves.

  43. @Markw

    I hadn’t seen that poll – thanks.

    Shows TM on +16 (+3) and JC on -30 (+11)
    but Corbyn is seen as better than Khan, Blair and Milliband. Cooper beats him by a point. All the ratings are fairly dire though.

  44. Updated predictions now we’ve seen all the manifestos. Only change is to acknowledge the LD->LAB movement (-3%/+3%).
    I suspect the Shy Tory/Lab bias will be worth more on the day than polls adjust for (5pts rather than 2pts). Unless something major happens between now and 8June I won’t be making any changes to overall numbers but might tweak London and Scotland.

    Con: 51.8% (418)
    Lab: 29.2% (156)
    LD: 7.1% (8)
    UKIP: 2.9% (0)
    Grn: 2.8% (1)
    Oth: 5.5% (49)

    Turnout 57%

    With LD getting no Remain boost my model is very close to Electoral Calculus now – so glad I spend all those hours putting in all the Remain/Leave data and running different Brexit impact scenarios! If LD drop much further though at least I can put in a -ve Remain coefficient which will boost LAB seats (basically would model the same thing as tactical LD->LAB voting)

  45. @norbold

    thats not good.

    I know the candidate you are talking about (her mum is a long time friend of mine) . As soon as her candidacy was announced in an article in the local paper – the comment section underneath was just a deluge of rapid xenophobia, sexism and bile. Deeply depressing and quite disturbing. There is a LOT of hate out there.

    I hope she can cope with it.

  46. Sea change, I hope you accept the poll challenges the somewhat hyperbolic commentary you and others to offer on JC.

  47. @norbold

    Surely her UKIP stalker can be slapped down with a restraining order?

  48. Think what we’ve seen is reaction to Labour’s manifesto causing a small increase for them and a small decline for the Tories. Now Team May has released theirs I predict it will swing back in the Tories favour.and Labour will decline.

  49. @Trevor

    Why the low turnout? Lowest ever I think? I would have thought it would go up given the greater choice on offer this election.

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