There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.

394 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 47, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. @ Danny
    I strongly suspect the luxury cars import market will be the least hit by Uk consumers ceasing to buy. Just as likely that UK manufacturers will suffer low demand.

    I hope consumers will not be lemmings if there is no reciprocal deal. We can operate our own judgement on whether to continue to buy German or French cars depending on the outcome of the talks. I drive a Nissan but if they did move out as a result of Brexit then it would be the last I buy.

  2. @OLDNAT

    “Interesting that in Scotland none of Lab MPs who lost in 2015 standing again, except Ian Davidson who switched from Glasgow to Berwickshire”

    Hard to understand why they would turn down the chance to look silly and / or humorously incompetent in front of their electorates….

    From the Scottish Sun:

    “LABOUR’s only Scottish MP has been left red-faced after sending a leaflet out claiming to list his achievements – and leaving the page blank.

    Ian Murray, MP for Edinburgh South, sent out thousands of the letters to members of his constituency urging them to re-elect him as their MP.

    Constituents were left baffled after Murray claimed his achievements were listed on the back of the letter.

    But when voters turned over the page they were left with a blank sheet of paper.”

  3. Graham

    ” as evidenced by the calling the election despite so many denials of any intent to do so. ”

    Not seen as that by the voters, recent YouGov polls showed clear majorities for both calling the election and changing her mind to do so.


    I quite understand.

    “Oh, and last year’s tomato blight seems to have spread to this year’s early potatoes, so I have a very negative view of the world at this moment!”

    Dreadful news, you have my sympathy.

  5. Some good economic news from April 11-25 Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI .
    The start of the second quarter saw a solid improvement in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector. Rates of expansion in output, total new orders and new export work all gathered pace, underpinned by robust business confidence and driving further job creation.
    The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) rose to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, up from March’s four-month low of 54.2.
    The PMI has signalled expansion for nine months in a row. The last time the PMI registered below its no-change mark was July 2016, the month following the EU referendum result.
    The April PMI reflected positive influences from all five of its sub-components. Alongside the growth of output, new orders and employment, stocks of purchases also rose at a survey record rate and suppliers’ delivery times lengthened.
    Manufacturing production expanded at the fastest pace in three months. The strongest growth was seen in the investment goods sector, followed by the intermediate goods category. Sources: IHS Markit, UK Office for National Statistics UK manufacturing output was driven higher by the strongest inflows of new work since January 2014, with the domestic market remaining the principal source of new contract wins.
    There were also reports of a solid increase in new export business, reflecting a combination of stronger global market conditions and the historically weak sterling exchange rate. Higher demand coming mainly from North America, Europe, Africa and Brazil.
    The exchange rate also continued to have an impact on cost pressures. The rate of purchase price inflation remained elevated and above the long-run survey average, despite easing to a nine month low.

    For those interested in the EU:-
    Good news also for the EU which can be summarised as follows:-
    Eurozone manufacturing expands at fastest pace in six years Key findings:
    Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 56.7 in April (Flash: 56.8, March Final: 56.2)
    Output, new orders and employment all rise at quickest rates in six years
    Input price pressures remain elevated, but ease further from recent high
    So much for recent doom and gloom from some commentators.

  6. Good morning all from a sunny PSRL.

    Looking at the trends in the polls it does seem to be fitting a narrative of after the calling of the the election there being an initial hardening of the Tory vote with former UKIP supporters firmly switching to Tory. This seems to have precipitated a reaction from the anti-Tory section of the electorate – who motivated by a desire to prevent a Tory landslide are hardening their support behind Labour (despite reservations around Corbyn).

    This group of voters, whilst not exclusive to, is likely to be concentrated in the London area and other metropolitan areas of England and Wales, and I am assuming it is more from the lib/mc sections of Labours support. However this is not the area where the battle of this election will be fought.

    Labour currently faces a dual challenge with UKIP/Tories on one side making a play for its traditional working class bases and the LD’s attempting to target its pro-remain liberal left metropolitan support. The latter’s attempt appears to be struggling – this could be due to the group of voters they are targeting being aware that most Lab MP’s are pro-remain and luke warm to say the least on Corbyn. Not wanting to split the anti-Tory vote in most cases they may be deciding to stick with Labour.

    The crucial fight is for traditionally Labour voting pro-Brexit working class vote in wales, the midlands and North. The whole Tory campaign is directed at this – and their own polling must show it is fertile territory for them. Labour’s counter is to stress the NHS / housing etc.

    I haven’t seen any evidence (either polling or anecdotally) to indicate that Labour are ‘wining’ back this section of voters in sufficient numbers atm which they would need to to break the 30% barriers.

    Both the Tories and Labour appear to be following exactly the correct campaigning strategies in relation to their relative appeal to these groups – personally I think there is a strong case for Labour to go negative (largely to counter the inevitable attack that will come from the Tory press).

  7. @neila

    ‘re Ireland, the variables are N Ireland’s economic status and where the border is. One solution would be for NI to remain in the Single Market and have the economic border with the EU on the island of Great Britain.

  8. @Hireton
    Or have Eire rejoin the UK and have the border at Brest – but I can’t see that before 2050.

  9. The idea that the erection of trade barriers between UK and EU, as a result of “no deal”, will significantly damage the EU compared to the UK seems deluded. If we are operating under WTO rules then the tariffs will be the same in each direction. Yes, German car manufacturers will be operating at a (price) competitive disadvantage within the UK market, but they will have a competitive *advantage* in the much larger EU market.

    If you’re Skoda or VW competing with Nissan, is it really such a bad thing to have a competitive advantage in the much larger market, and a disadvantage in the smaller market?

  10. @ROBIN

    To add to that. A factory in EU has free trade agreements with many parts of the world while UK will be at WTO rules with everyone. Free trade agreements take about a decade to negotiate and the UK will have to spend the first several years concentrating all negotiating competence to the EU.

  11. Robin,

    “significantly damage the EU compared to the UK seems deluded”

    Pretty much, but i think you’ll find as i have that most Brexit supporters will either ignore your post or change the subject because that’s how they del with facts they don’t like.

    Still there will be a fair bit of offset, so where as now we manufacture about 1,8m cars and export 1.3m It might well end up more like 1.6m and 800k each, so the number of British build cars on our roads might actually go up.

    So I suppose some good news for the companies that make cars here;

    Jaguar/Landrover (Indian), Ford (American), Vauxhall (now Italian), Mini (German), Nissan (Japanese/French).


  12. I am not sure who’s side I believe over the May/Junkers dinner, but if we really;

    “Don’t understand how the EU works”

    Then after forty years of membership, that must be about the worst inditement of British politicians ever.

    And before anyone buts in with “They’ve never understood us” that’s no excuse because not getting to see our perspective as just as big a failing as not understanding theirs.

    Having said that I suspect their are plenty who do understand it just not in this government.


  13. The Other Howard,
    ” recent YouGov polls showed clear majorities for both calling the election and changing her mind to do so”

    Now here is where polls need careful interpretation. If committed conservatives think the decision right it makes no difference. if committed labour think it wrong, it makes no difference. but what is the view of the small group which might yet change sides or is currently uncommitted? Smaller, but potentially decisive in the result.

    ” If we are operating under WTO rules then the tariffs will be the same in each direction”

    No. Under WTO the EU would apply to us its standard terms for outsiders (ie tariffs) and we would apply to them our standard terms for outsiders (at present rather vague and undecided). Our standard terms would have to be the same terms we applied to china or the US or Brazil unless we have negotiated one of those special ten year million page trade agreements with each party for whom we want to make a special case. So no, it is unlikely the trade terms would by symmetric and we could end up with no import tariffs on EU goods coming into the Uk but large tariffs on our goods going there. This problem is not getting much publicity.

  14. Peter Cairns

    ” “Don’t understand how the EU works” ”

    It was certainly true in 1992. I saw how the Major government didn’t understand the operation of the Commission. It was quite embarrassing really.

    Let’s hope that quarter of a century added some expertise.

  15. Not sure what is meant quite by ‘Brexit supporter’. I voted remain but accept the result and would now the support the government in what the majority of the country accepts will be very tough negotiations. The word ‘deluded’ is banded about far too much on this site – by and large we are blessed with an intelligent electorate.

  16. Peter Cairns,
    ” if we really;“Don’t understand how the EU works”

    Then after forty years of membership, that must be about the worst inditement of British politicians ever.”

    I doubt the leaks are untrue, it would be exceedingly embarassing if they could be demonstrated false.

    What May really believes is a different matter. I would think she must have expected the conversations to be leaked, so she must have been faced with a choice of following the same line she has given in public speeches or departing from them.

    What would be worse, to be accused by the EU of failure to understand, or to be accused by all and sundry of saying different things to the EU than to the British people, just at th start of an election campaign? Better to be accused of stupidity than lying.

    The twitter link above mentions that in conversation David Davis repeatedly brought up his ECJ victory against May. A united negotiating team where he is trying to undermine the prime minister?

  17. @Robin

    Agreed, but WTO rules don’t require the tariffs to be the same in each direction. Without a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, the UK would be subject to its Common External Tariff. The UK would need to set its own tariffs (which could be the same as the CET) but they would apply to all WTO members unless the UK had agreed a separate comprehensive trade deal.

  18. @dave

    The idea that the Republic of Ireland is going to re-join the UK as presently configured as a monarchy in which England has the decisive say in all UK political questions at any point in the future is for the birds in cloud cuckoo land!

  19. Just listened to the Diane Abbott interview, she must cost the Labour party two points every time she is near a microphone, truly toe curdling.

  20. Hireton

    I agree.

    Have their been any recent polls in Northern Ireland about joining the Republic?

  21. @ Hireton

    I raised this a few weeks ago, you’re right about there being no chance of the |rish giving up their sovereignty but a looser federal senate system might work as long as we don’t end up with a mini Brussels!

  22. @petercairns: I think Mr Varoufakis explained to us all how the EU works. In matters like this, they expect the member state to surrender.

    @hireton: it is a matter for the EU what border controls it requires from Ireland. I suspect they will demand some big step towards reunification, because they will either bring down the courts or show the UK will agree to anything.

  23. @petercairns: I think Mr Varoufakis explained to us all how the EU works. In matters like this, they expect the member state to surrender.

    @hireton: it is a matter for the EU what border controls it requires from Ireland. I suspect they will demand some big step towards reunification, because they will either bring down the courts or show the UK will agree to anything.

  24. Little sympathy for Abbott as she isn’t my favourite politician; she’s been too nasty too often to others to get much sympathy when she slips up.

    However this is symptomatic of Labours current lack of professionalism.

    Corbyn and those around him, in rejecting “New Labour” in it’s entirety seem to have decided that they don’t need any of that presentational stuff just fire in their bellies.

    Problem is it’s a bit like the Chinese in Korea, when it came down to it; a gun, a bayonet, a little red book and the order to charge just lead to them being mowed down in droves in useless mass wave attacks.


  25. @rudyard

    I seem to recall there have been but cannot find them on Lucid Talk’s website which seemed the most likely place. Sorry!


    “by and large we are blessed with an intelligent electorate.”

    An interesting assertion. Any evidence? How would one measure the intelligence of electorates?

  27. Blue Bob, other opinions are available. My partner is definitely a Diane Abbot supporter, he has her pic as his facebook profile pic at present.

  28. Just to move away form Brexit and other controversial topics some people might be interested in this detailed historical analysis of Wales’ political landscape:

  29. @joseph1832

    “.it is a matter for the EU what border controls it requires from Ireland. I suspect they will demand some big step towards reunification, because they will either bring down the courts or show the UK will agree to anything.’

    Your first sentence is obviously true but Ireland is part of the EU and clearly has had considerable influence in framing the EU’s collective negotiating stance so far.

    It is also obviously true that is a matter for the UK what border controls it requires of Northern Ireland since it would not want an open border with the EU as a means to evade whatever tariffs it puts in place post Brexit.

    I am afraid I cannot construe the meaning of your last sentence.

  30. As we are talking about NI here is a link to Lucid Talk’s plans for polling there and their initial assessment of what few seats might change hands and why:

  31. I think you a e being unfair to D. Abbott. I am sure she will excel in her potential role as chief Brexit negotiator for the UK.

    How much are the EU demanding Diane £5; £50; £500; £500k;
    £5m ;£50m; £500m?

  32. @Blue Bob “Just listened to the Diane Abbott interview, she must cost the Labour party two points every time she is near a microphone, truly toe curdling.”

    The interview was beyond embarrassing.
    A new low from Abbott. And this is Labour’s proposed Home Secretary.

  33. Joseph1832,

    “In matters like this, they expect the member state to surrender.”

    Well if there are 28 states and the other 27 will bail you out if you make structural reforms (collect enough tax to cover your outgoings, don’t have a huge public sector with wages and pensions you can’t afford to pay) and you want a bail out but no structural reforms there is only going to be two outcomes.

    Either you accept the bail out on their terms or no bail out.

    You may not like it but it’s hardly fair for the single country in debt to dictate how much of the others money it should get and on what terms.

    The EU by and large progresses, slowly and clunky by negotiation and compromise, only going forward when the collective interest outweighs the individual interests of members.

    In the case of Brexit their collective interest will be put before our individual interest because we aren’t even going to be a member.

    Fairly simple, fairly plain but seemly to hard for the UK government to grasp.


  34. Before today Abbott was going to ask Corbyn for Justice after the election.

    Today she’s asking for Mercy!!!!



    A sensible post and representative of many who voted “Remain” I suspect. My son’s views are very similar to yours on Brexit, he voted Remain but accepts the result and wants the Government to get on with it. As a University Professor he has been very irritated at some of the behavour of Remainers, especially some of his colleagues, so much so that I suspect he will be voting Tory for the first time to help May get on with the job. Since he lives in Coventry South (Maj 3,100 approx) his and his wife’s votes could have a real affect unlike my own. I live in Tory heartlands even though Remain had a small majority in the local constituency it is unlikely to affect the 20,000+ majority.

  36. Peter Cairns SNP

    “Fairly simple, fairly plain but seemly to hard for the UK government to grasp.”

    Since May has repetedly said she thinks the negotiations will be tough I just think that’s plain wrong.

    As for Juncker, please will the EU keep him talking. I think he adds 100,000 to the likely Tory majority every time he opens his mouth. If he is typical of EU bureaucrats (which to be fair I doubt) then God help the EU going forward.

  37. @Hireton
    “The idea that the Republic of Ireland is going to re-join the UK as presently configured as a monarchy in which England has the decisive say in all UK political questions”
    That is your scenario, not mine. I didn’t suggest that.
    Suppose together we became the 51st state of the USA?
    Suppose by 2050 there is no EU to raise problems about an open or a closed border in Ireland?
    suppose we actually get to be governed by some statesmen instead of rather foolish narrow minded politicians?
    Suppose by 2050 we are actually talking about it, and saying that realistically it might be 2100?
    What about Bantams’ suggestion? “no chance of the |rish giving up their sovereignty [!? EU members?] but a looser federal senate system might work as long as we don’t end up with a mini Brussels!”
    Preferable to the ‘maxi-Brussels’ that Ireland is already in, now that with UK out the EU is full steam ahead for the maxi Brussels of a more united Europe?
    Which of these scenarios is least likely?
    A week is a long time in politics. 30 years is a generation. By then there might even be Scottish referendums taking them out and back again to use as models.

  38. ToH,

    I think you have fallen into an Abbott trap. I doubt that Juncker moves more than a thousand votes each time he speaks.

    Otherwise, if you are right, we could be looking at a lead of 10m votes by polling day.


  39. TOH,

    If the head of the European Commission being clear, yet again, that the current UK position of wanting dual track negotiations is an non starter and a deal on outstanding obligations and citizens rights needs to be done first, add to the Tory vote then we look set for a re run of the Greek Referendum.

    A Government wrapping itself in the flag and running a populist campaign to get people tobacco a del that isn’t on the table.

    The EU told Greece that a bail out would have tight strings.

    The Greek Government called a Referendum on bailout without strings.

    The Greek people voted for a bailout without strings.

    The EU offered a bailout with tight strings.

    the Greek Government accepted a Bailout with tight strings!

    The Eu has set out it’s terms for Brexit.

    The UK has set out different terms for Brexit

    The UK has called an election on it’s terms for Brexit.

    The EU has reiterated it’s terms for Brexit…..

    Other than “Ah but we’re British” why do you think this is going to end differently.


  40. @hireton: apologies, my iPhone does curious things.

    The point is that the UK can say”we’re not going to create border controls”, so not up to us. What can the EU demand of the UK – remembering that it cannot talk trade at this stage according to its own decisions? If it demands constitutional changes it is either (a) to collapse the talks, or (b) to test if we will agree to anything. Either will suit Juncker and Tusk – and probably nothing in between would suit them.

  41. Just heard the Abbott interview. Holy cow. I cannot think of another interview I have heard that even begins to reach that level of incompetence. Not only was her performance itself shambolic beyond belief, but the (lack of) preparation for it defies belief. Question number 1 was always going to be “How much will it cost”. The number should have been fixed in her memory before she went anywhere near a microphone.

    I really don’t think the tongue-in-cheek comments about that costing 2% are unreasonable. Within London (where LBC has pretty good audience levels) it will have done enormous damage.

  42. Good afternoon all from a very warm and dull central London.

    Came across this very interesting retweet from AW.

    Anthony Wells Retweeted
    Steve Fisher? @StephenDFisher 1h1 hour ago
    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30

    The full report.

  43. @Peter C

    Not sure if you’ve spotted this but Jaguar Land Rover have just committeed £1Bn to build a new factory in Slovakia.
    And £100M for Birmingham.
    Sunlit uplands beckon.

  44. Only anecdote but over on a political discussion forum we ran a poll and the Tories got 74%. Now bare in mind the polling on the site usually has a slight conservative majority, but nothing like this.

    People respect May’s cautious approach to the negotiation and not wanting to reveal our Poker hand just yet.

    Eurocrats are talking tough on Brexit in order to deter wavering potential Le Pen voters.

  45. Do any of the polling firms providing the data used for this site allow open inspection of their collected data, as well as their methods of collection? It certainly appears to me that this data, and particularly the methods by which it is collected, validated and stored, are a matter of public interest and should be open to inspection by members of the Great British public.

  46. Clearly the Abbot interview is awful, but Corbyn was able at least to keep the point about extra police and how they are funded across in the clean up operation.

    Abbot is a liability, as are quite a few others, and one of the most annoying things about Corbyn’s leadership has been how appalling they have been for a very long time now about basic media management.

    That has nothing to do with being Blairite or right wing – indeed, it has absolutely nothing to do with policies at all. Rather, it is the ability to relentlessly present the message you want to present and quickly counter whatever the opposition says.

    It’s basic stuff, but there is no logical reason why a left wing Labour party can’t have their own Alistair Campbell and instant rebuttal unit. As leader, Corbyn is responsible for this, and the shambolic operation of the party, but I remain hopeful that we can have an election looking at policies, rather than simply parroting empty slogans and dissecting car crash interviews.

    Polling effects? Probably not great. We get excited by all this, but others less so. If it mutates into a longer run of incompetence, then it gets serious, but if Abbot disappears for a week or four it will be forgotten about before long.

  47. Guymonde, Whirlpool washing machine production being move from France to Poland, part of a tsunami of offshoring to cheaper Eastern Europe.

    “Any comments on the panel base figures I raised with you at 5.50?”

    Sorry for not getting back to you yesterday. I’ve moved house and don’t have phone or internet until Friday. I was using my dongle and it’s ever so slow and just gave up. My phone ain’t much faster.

    I haven’t a clue what’s going on with panel base figures.

  49. Alec

    While I largely agree with you re the interview, there is a deeper question about competence (not that the Tories are more competent). And it can accumulate very quickly, and also it reverses the vague hope from the weekend for Labour people, and undecided.

    It is about that 300 million sum. Judging from the G4S fiasco from 2012, probably the laundry bill and the general maintenance of the uniforms would come to about 300 million a year (even if they pledge the reversal of the laundry privatisation).

    I really wonder if Labour actually talked to an expert, or just thought “it is a good idea, let’s take the Tories on on their own field” (in a way it is true, but …).

  50. Alec,

    “no logical reason why a left wing Labour party can’t have their own Alistair Campbell!”

    No but there is an illogical reason why Corbyn can’t.
    He and those around him believe that all that kind of media management stuff and working the press, is part of the problem not the solution so they dismiss it.

    Whats more it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. they distain and distance themselves from a media they think is against them and then when they get hammered because they can present or represent themselves properly it’s because…the media are against them.

    On another topic all this reminded me of an observation a friend made a week or two ago about the election and politics in general.

    The left talk about being comrades, brothers and sisters and the importance of Unity and Solidarity, but the fight like ferrets in a sack and are about as united as Celtic and Rangers.

    The right on the other hand talk about individuality and individual rights and don’t want a Nanny state but they love to blindly follow leaders like Thatcher and May who treat them, well, as she are their Nanny!

    Funny old world.

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