MORI have published their monthly political monitor – full details are here. The topline voting intention figures are CON 38%(+2), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(-4), UKIP 11%(nc), GRN 3%(nc). The Conservatives retain a narrow lead, but not significantly different from last month.

Referendum voting intention stands at REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 39%(-2), DK 12%(+2). MORI also asked an unprompted question on what the most important issues were in deciding how people would vote in the EU referendum. Overall the impact on the economy (32%) and immigration (27%) came top, but there was a sharp contrast between remain and leave voters. Among those who want to remain 40% named the economy, followed by jobs (15%), trade (14%) and immigration (14%). Among those who want to leave 47% named immigration, followed by making our own laws (25%), the economy (21%) and the impact of immigration on the welfare state (20%).

64 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 38, LAB 35, LD 6, UKIP 11, GRN 3”

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  1. OLDNAT:
    “Labour, Tory and Lib Dem parties must be nationalist parties too”

    All unionist parties are nationalists. Far as I can tell from the election leaflets I’ve received, the only party where the word doesn’t apply is the Women’s Equality Party, who don’t take a view on Scottish independence.

  2. Unionism is nationalism. Minitru would be all over that!

    I’m heading down to Ilford and Ealing this weekend to campaign in the Mayoral election – will report back with my impressions. But that massive lead for Khan seems like it’ll be hard to overcome, even if the polls are slightly off.


    l’m hearing new London Mayoral poll courtesy of YouGov.

    Yes the tables are now up:

    Zac Goldsmith – Conservative 32%

    Sadiq Khan – Labour 48%

    Caroline Pidgeon – Liberal Democrat 5%

    Siân Berry – Green 6%

    Peter Whittle – UKIP 7%

    George Galloway – Respect 0%

    David Furness – British National Party 0%

    Paul Golding – Britain First 1%

    Some other candidate 1%

    These figures are now weighted by LTV.

    After second prefs are used the final result is:

    Zac Goldsmith – Conservative 40%

    Sadiq Khan – Labour 60%

    Khan even leads (just 51-49) in Outer London. The one hope for the Conservatives is the extraordinary difference in age groups. In the 60-40 split, Kahn leads by 76% to 24% among the under-25s but Goldsmith 69% to 31% among the over-65s.

    There are also figures for the London Assembly as well. The regional figures (LTV weighted) are:

    Conservative 29% (-3)

    Labour 45% (+4)

    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)

    UK Independence Party 9% (+4)

    Green Party 7% (-2)

    British National Party 0% (-2)

    Women’s Equality Party 1% (+1)

    English Democrats 0% (-1)

    Some other party 0% (-2)

    Figures in brackets actual result in 2012.

  4. @ KeithP

    “Those polls where “leave” are ahead seem to be only once a week or so, although polls are tightening in their favour. ”

    No, the most recent polls have shown a slight movement to ‘Remain’, with those recently released by Ipsos Mori, ICM, YouGov, ORB and TNS all moving their way compared to the previous poll per pollster and mode.

    However, there seemed to be a slight movement to ‘Leave’ 2-3 weeks ago, so in the light of that it is likely that this is a reversion to the longstanding average which is a narrow Remain lead of around 4 points.

  5. Alun009,

    ““It’s ok,” I wanted to say, but he was gone: “it’s ok: I see Liberal Democrats.””

    Farmers Hustings at Dingwall Mart last night.

    Speaking for the SNP;
    Fergus Ewing Business Minister for the Scottish Government!

    Speaking for the LibDems;……….
    No one!

    And that’s in Charles Kennedy’s old seat!


  6. PETER CAIRNS (#twovotesSNP)

    Oi oi oi oi oi you stop Trumping on about my posts and start concerning yourself with handing out all them flags, fluffy hats, leaflets ,balloons and badges for Nicola Sturgeons re-election for First Minister.

    You cheeky monkey.


    Thanks for the info on the London Mayor.

    “George Galloway – Respect 0%”

    Too high. ;-)

  8. Good Evening All, and a lovely day it has been here in Bournemouth East Seat by the Sea.
    Thank you for the information about London.

    It may well be that signs are pointing to Labour doing a bit better in 2020 than they did in 2015.

    Time and Tide will tell

  9. George Galloway on 0%…….

    As the kids say…..”RESPECT!”


  10. “George Galloway on 0%…….”

    Margin of error +/- 3% so possibly negative voting?

    That might be fun. Elections could be like a balloon debate, where we vote for the candidate to be hurled into oblivion.

  11. YouGov also asked about Westminster voting intention in London:

    Con 30% (35%)

    Lab 46% (44%)

    Lib Dem 7% (8%)

    UKIP 13% (8%)

    Green 4% (5%)

    Other 1% (*%)

    () figures are the percentages last May in London.

    It’s worth pointing out that unlike previous YouGov practice, but like their latest national VI figures, these are after LTV adjustment. In fact it makes little difference, normally the pre-LTV figures are more favourable to Labour, but not only do Conservative voters last May show a higher tendency to say DK/WNV those giving a preference seem less enthusiastic than normal. This is a similar pattern to most national polls including the YouGov one.

    The big gainers of course are UKIP, normally poor performers in London, though still lagging behind GB polling by 4 points as before. Their strength as expected is older (over 40 though not just 65) C2DE and Outer London. Whether this will hold for them after the referendum and where the voters will then go will be interesting.

    But both UKIP and the Greens have been surprisingly strong in holding onto the vote they got last year, despite lack of parliamentary advance and the changes in Labour which has attracted some Greens but also caused at least as many Labour voters to return ‘home’ as Tories. Though more than balanced by defections the other way, the Conservatives have fared much worse.

  12. BERT.
    Good Evening to you.
    There are historical precedents for parties disappearing in British Political History, especially when they made Alliances with the Conservatives.
    Liberal Unionists led by Hartington.
    Liberal Unionists led by Chamberlain.
    Before that we see the merger of Whigs and Radicals and Peelites in 1859 at the Willis Tea Rooms Meeting.
    After 1918 Asquith’s Liberals more or less disappeared.
    Acland’s Commonwealth Party in 1945.
    Nearer to our time the SDP and the old Liberal Party.

  13. ChrisLane 1945

    You can add the Scottish Unionist Party (1912-65) to that list.

    Future commentators may also add the Labour Party in Scotland as well. :-)

  14. @ Old Nat

    I think it’s not widely understood that ‘Unionist’ referred to the 1800 Union with Ireland, not that between England and Scotland.

    I hadn’t realised until recently that the Tories were – sort of – a separate party in Scotland at this time, nor that the ‘Conservative’ name was always unpopular in Scotland.

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