ComRes have their monthly online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow. Topline voting intention figures are CON 38%(-3), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 16%(+1), GRN 4%(+1). The Conservative lead has dropped five points since last month, but that still leaves it at nine points (ComRes’s online polls tend to produce the largest Conservative leads of all the companies, largely because of ComRes’s new turnout filter that is based on socio-economic data. The nine point lead is actually the smallest ComRes have shown in their online polls since the election – up until now they’ve shown a Conservative lead between 11 and 15 points). Full tabs are here.

Ahead of the budget there were also a few economic questions. More people think George Osborne is doing a bad job as Chancellor (41%) than a good job (31%), but Cameron & Osborne have a 16 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell on which pair people would trust to run the country’s economy (45% to 29%).

64 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 38, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 16, GRN 4”

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  1. The significance of the three German state elections is that none of the usual coalition combinations are going to work.

    The Green-Red coalition in Baden-Wurttemburg is four seats short of a majority and will likely have to broker a deal with the Free Democrats.

    The Red-Green coalition in Rhineland-Palitinate is six seats short of a majority and will also likely have to broker a deal with the Free Democrats.

    In Sachsen-Anhalt the CDU cannot form a “grand coalition” with the SPD, without also inviting the Greens into that arrangement as well or they could invite Afd into the fold, as it is highly unlikely the Left party would join with the CDU.

    So the rise of the Afd is giving rise to some potentially interesting coalition combinations not seen before in Germany.

  2. Andy

    While it does depend on the provisions for a “no confidence” vote in those Landtag (which I have no idea of!), is there any reason why a minority party/coalition can’t just copy the SNP in 2007, and dare the opposition parties to combine to vote them down?

  3. Good Morning all, from a beautiful morning in Bournemouth East.

    There have been many interesting comments on why Labour are behind the Tories at this stage of the Parliament.

    I do not think Labour should blame UKIP for Labour’s failures in the seats needed to win.

    Labour needs, I think, to understand fears of low wages, lack of housing, opposition to unilateralism and Marxism.
    It is a mistake also, for the Left to attack ‘moderates’ a Tory Lite, or to abuse them in the way that Ken L did recently in his Savile jibe.

  4. Livingstone’s “Hedge Fund” jibe merely unearthed another example of his hypocrisy. Livingstone’s approach to politics only works if the Press is muzzled……………………

  5. Happy Monday everyone – unless you’re a Villa or Arsenal supporter (I’m not).

    I’ll actually stay on topic to start (for once!) – no big improvement for Labour here, but to be honest, we’ll know a lot more once actual elections take place. I don’t think that the Conservatives would be too worried if they lost a few seats to Labour, UKIP and the Lib Dems. In any case, because of the weird plethora of local elections in England (who really knows what unitary authorities even do?), it’ll probably be a mish-mash on the night in any case. A good night for Labour would be winning in London, and performing credibly in Scotland, with a council win or two as a bit of icing. A bad night would be Goldsmith winning in London, the Conservatives 2nd in Scotland, and taking a kicking in Castle Point or Swindon (swing areas over the last couple of elections).

    On the German elections, I missed AndyS asking for a prediction – but it ended up more or less as I expected (I have 20-20 vision in hindsight!). The AfD did very well – probably better than even they expected, especially with the high turnouts. One interesting tidbit from the exit poll was that in S-A, around half of their vote came from people who didn’t vote in the last election, and they were performing strongly with younger voters. It was also a decent night for the FDP – after the calamity of the 2013 federal elections, they’ve been improving gradually in the various state elections, and now are likely to have a role in state governments again (although they appear to have just missed out in S-A). The SPD had a very good result in Rheinland-Pfalz, although tempered with pretty awful results elsewhere. Likewise, the Greens had a terrific result in BW, but not so good elsewhere. (Footnote: from the exit poll in BW, Minister-President Kretschmann had an 89% approval rating – that’s almost dictator-like ratings!!!!). The Left didn’t have a good evening at all – missing out in BW and RP, and well down in S-A. For Merkel, it’ll be a mixture of disappointment and relief. BW was terrible. RP a bit disappointing, but not disastrous, and S-A not too bad, all things considered. Mind you, it’s going to be tough to form a government in S-A.

    In response to Oldnat’s question above, it’s perfectly possible to run a minority government in a state government – however, as in Nordrhein-Westfalen in 2012, a budget is typically a confidence motion, and the SPD-Green minority was defeated then, leading to new elections (after which they were returned as a majority coalition…..). In the case of S-A, the CDU/SPD may decide to run a minority government – it’s hard to imagine the Left, the Greens and AfD being able to agree on too much – and would all probably be a bit terrified of a new election. A CDU/SPD/Green coalition would have a majority, but I think it would look a bit too much like a stitch-up of the political elite. On the other hand, Rainer Haseloff (not Hasselhoff!) might call the AfD’s bluff and see what they would offer in a coalition – if the AfD refuse to negotiate, they could be made to look like a wasted protest vote.

    But what do I know? :)


    Re the Scottish YG weightings that I quoted upthread, the new ones since February seem to be –
    Political Interest
    Educational level
    while Newspaper readership (always a somewhat bizarre concept of trying to tie Scottish papers into some kind of equivalence with the London press) seems to have been dropped.
    These look like sensible changes.

    Oh you Scots! It’s always ME, ME, ME!!

    Actually these seem to be more general methodological changes that YouGov are applying to all their polling – no doubt because of the failures of last May. There is similar new weighting strategy shown at the end of a GB poll on ‘Generation Y'[1]:

    The introduction to these weights says:

    In addition to weighting by age, education, social class and region (weighted and unweighted figures shown in the tables), YouGov also weighted its raw data by political attention and Vote in May 2015.

    The interesting thing is how detailed the weighting is. Each age/gender group (which YouGov did previously) is now split by education[2]. Vote in 2015 is now weighted within YouGov region as well (obviously this didn’t show up in the Scotland poll).

    No doubt Anthony will be working on one of his Methodology pieces soon.

    [1] Like Pete B, I hate these age-group tags with a passion. Even in their US context they are vague, used by different people to mean different things and prone to encourage stereotyping. Imposed on other countries with different demographics they are even more misleading. I suspect the inaccuracy and stereotyping are why journalists love them so.

    [2] Though to a variable extent. Over 65s are split only by gender, presumably because higher education was a comparative rarity for that group. Under 25s are split to High and not, presumably because so few in this group (already the smallest in number) have no qualifications. The age groups are also different from used before May as Anthony has already mentioned.

  7. @ Candy

    If you look at tab.6 by nationality in the link to the data you asked me to look at you will see that in the UK participation rates range from a high of 80.2% to a low of 46.1%. The latter apparently representing South Asian women.

    If you look at the US data the same fracturing occurs among female rates of labour force participation too. That’s why I took you to task for your statement, when you specifically stated that women in the south of the US had a lower participation rates in particular.

    The US is not an homogenous society right now, which is why the current Primaries are so fractious within both the Republican and Democratic Parties.

    Among socially-conservative and christian women the values you express are predominant, but that is not all of the south where women of colour, including Latino’s now, have a long history of working dating back to slavery.

    The Trump candidacy is a last hurrah for the social-christian-conservatives, who are being swamped demographically all over the US.

    On the Democrat side Hillary Clinton represents the older liberal feminist tendency, but both she and her husband are economically conservative, and some “liberals” blame the Clintons for the mess that occurred in 2008 due to banking de-regulation enacted under Bill’s presidency.

    Bernie Sanders, in particular, has broken out of the very liberal North East of the US, and for the first time since before the Second World War, he is using the “S” word without being accused of “treason”

    On the weekend, however, when both angry white and non-white men tried to take over the podium at Trump rallies, Trump himself started to refer to Sanders as a “communist” and encouraged his supporters to start beating up on what he named as “Sanders” supporters.

    In the US the social-christian-conservative bloc has lost the fight to prevent same sex marriage and now at least two states, Washington (not DC) and Colarado have legalized the sale of marijuana.

    So Trump sees Sanders as far more of a threat to his vision and values than Clinton, and getting back to the original discussion you cannot, in my opinion, neatly pigeon hole women in the US as they are as fractured along age, ethnic and economic class lines, as are men.

    What you describe of women not working in the US, is in transition, in part due to the impact of “Free Trade” which has lead to an overall lowering of wages, stagnation and a drop in family income, forcing some women into the workforce, against their historical cultural and family values.

    Hence the contentious Primary season and rampant anger. Quite amazing to listen twenty something males, white and non-white, being interviewed on the news who explained they were trying to take over Trump’s podium to replace his message of hatred and racism, with a vision of love and coming together as community.

    These points of view represent massive ideological forces that are on the move in the US and some days I fear a civil war will erupt in the lower 48 states.

  8. @ Anthony

    Looking at Roger Mexico’s post with a link to YouGov’s GB poll on generation Y.

    Aren’t the DNV, I assume this is “Did Not Vote”, numbers both unweighted and weighted a little low?

  9. @ Old Nat

    I agree with LoisWalshVotesGreen that the test will come at budget time.

    On further reflection, knowing how much the Germans abhor “chaos and mayhem”, I detect that in two state elections voters chose to give the perceived leading Party a boost, the Greens in BW and the SDP in RP, but appeared to have punished the junior partner in those coalitions – while giving a boost to Afd and the FDP.

    Only is SA does every Party from the previous election get knocked back.

  10. New poll from ICM has CON 36 LAB 36 UKIP 11 LD 8 GRN 3. First poll to have CON and LAB tied (or close to being) since the GE. Probably an outlier, but there was also a narrowing (from 14 to 9 pts) with ComRes at the weekend.

    If this is a real trend I expect it is not about Europe (though the media will assume it to be). It would simply not be logical for people who don’t like the Tories being divided/Cameron being pro-European switching to the party that’s even more divided/more pro-European. It may, however, if real reflect growing unease with the state of the economy and the performance of the NHS.

  11. ICM have in fact basically disowned their own poll

  12. l’m gathering that there’s a new ICM poll : C 36 (-3) Lab 36 (+4) UKIP 11 (NC) LD 8 (+1) Green 3 (-1). Interesting but obviously only significant if other polls start to show a similar trend.

  13. oh beg pardon l see it’s been commented on above.

  14. Just one thing Jack – only fair to point out that a poll last week showed that voters (by a very narrow margin) currently see the Conservatives as even more divided than Labour. That could well be a major driver of the above poll. Now to see what other pollsters who haven’t reported for a while find.

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