Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. This follows on from a four point Conservative lead in yesterday’s YouGov poll and a one point Tory lead in their Sunday Times poll at the weekend.

Earlier on today there was also a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline Westminster voting intentions in Wales stand at CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, PC 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% – Roger Scully’ analysis of it is over on his Elections in Wales blog here.


524 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

  2. @Spearmint

    I’ve always liked your obvious vulnerability and innocence!

    :-)

  3. 4-point Labour lead tomorrow? ;)

    Seriously though Anthony, this weekly cycle is getting weird.

  4. CROSSBAT 11
    Naughty but nice and clever diversion.

  5. Not over till the fat lady sings!

    …and we are nowhere near that stage.

  6. This early week/later week thing is bizarre!

    There will be a tipping point soon. I think!

  7. That Catmanjeff is a little scamp and rascal. How does she/he do it?

    I posted my YouGov poll result before it was declared.

    Call it left wing intuition, if you like.

    :-)

  8. And its not thursday yet.

  9. Bingo. I thought it would be neck and neck tonight but this poll reinforces the view of some of us that it remains very close. Talk of a Tory majority is a bit daft at the moment.
    The YouGov pattern of good polls for Con early on in the week followed by good polling for Lab later in the week continues.

  10. @Dave in Oxford.

    Dave, you have to consider that in any such event , Ed Miliband would probably not be the Labour Leader if he fails to win in May.
    A progressive bloc would obviously pick the right moment to bring down a weak Tory government.And Labour could well have someone like Andy Burnham as leader by then.

  11. OK YG March average update:

    Con 34, Lab 33.

  12. Agree with others this weekly cycle is totally surreal. People apparently don’t like Mondays, Labour must be thrilled polling day is on a Thursday.

  13. Long time Lurker Here.

    @David in Oxford.

    “Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats…”

    There is no possibility at all that Cons will get a majority of votes and only a very slim possibility that they could get a majority of seats. They may get a narrow plurality of both, either, but why that is more legitimate than a coalition representing many more votes and seats seems dubious in the extreme?

  14. @Omnishambles

    I disagree. The Lib Dems could accept a referendum in return for something else. Remember how they gave up tuition fees.

    Didn’t they do a few uncomfortable things in return for a referendum on PR? Based on how well things turned out for them over the last 4.5 years, don’t you just a slight suspicion that their attitude to such bargains might be a little bit different this time?

    in this administration, they have consistently blocked votes in support of making an EU referendum “compulsory”. Their position has been that the time for a referendum is when there are proposed changes in EU powers. Why should they suddenly shift their position?

  15. David in Oxford

    How could a different political grouping unseat ” the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats”?

  16. Well the only conclusion is that 65% of the poulation are disillusioned with Ed and 66% with Dave. What a mess!

  17. @Mikey,

    Who’s talking about a Tory majority?

  18. @JOHN J

    A bit of poor bookmaking then. Bookies should never gamble, just take their percentage.

    I can go to bed now, happy in the knowledge that the more excitable contributors will have calmed down. It gives them a bit more time to contemplate the inevitable, which must be a good thing.

  19. Spearmint, while thanking you for your churn report – (well worth repeating on a new thread IMO) – we have to record the end of the ‘in a row’ sequence, which had variable quantity anyway..

    We would appear to need 4 ‘in a rows’ of 3% or more before we van conclude a significant change (either way incidentally).

    What I found, after this particular recent set of Con leads, was that no identifiable reason for it was in any shape of form, discernable.

  20. @ David in Oxford,

    Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats.

    To quote another Tory Prime Minister, “Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.” I reckon there will be a lot of grousing in southern pubs and very few other consequences.

    The only political choices that hurt you are the ones that upset your own voters (ie. the Iraq War, or Clegg going in with the Tories). Labour voters are not going to be upset that voting Labour got them a Labour government. (Most SNP voters will of course be happy that voting SNP got them a Labour government, which is a problem for Scottish Labour but not one they can solve by petulantly refusing to work with the SNP.)

    In an absolute worst-case scenario for Labour, they might reunite the Tories and Ukip. What else will happen?

  21. @ NEIL A

    James Peel although not in this thread.

  22. I’ve just ran a little test on the YG Con lead, comparing days of the week….

    I know Thursday and Friday are missing, but it gave a p value of 0.042.

    I will check again when all the data is there.

  23. @RandD

    Delighted to see you have posted again today.

    Noticeable too that it’s only us ‘gurls’ that have welcomed you back :-)

  24. I haven’t been talking about a tory majority!!! you haven’t been reading my posts at all closely, Mikey… i actually think mili will scrape in with some patchwork quilt centre-left coalition.

  25. Oh my, the new YouGov is indicating that Labour has risen from 31 to 35 in just 3 days. UK Tories must now be placing each other on suicide watch…. or it all could just be noise.

  26. I arrived in Canada as an immigrant about a month after British Trade Commissioner James Cross and Quebec Labour Minister, Pierre Laporte, were kidnapoped by the FLQ. Laporte was killed, while Cross was released in exchange for safe passage to Cuba.

    Anyone who thinks the nationalist struggle in Canada has been democratic and peaceful needs to have lived through the First Nations blockades at Oka in 1990 and Gustafson Lake in 1995.

    I and others I know are very familiar with the strategy and tactics of current Conservatives, as number of senior advisors defected when the Canadian Progressive Conservatives merged with Reform (UKIP) in 2003.

    The current leader of the Green Party in Canada worked as an EA to the Conservative Minister of Environment from 1986 to 1988, and in March 2015 a former senior Liberal policy adviser also switched to the Green Party.

    Finally in the 1980’s their were very strong ties between the Premier’s Offices in Saskatchewan and British Columbia and the PMO at Number 10 Downing Street.

    So there is a very long and intertwined relationship between various political parties in Canada and Britain dating back nearly 200 years.

  27. Polldrums continue at level pegging. Lib Dems still a bit high. Ed still not a strong leader. Cameron still not willing to have a debate with Ed despite the former.

    Movement conspicuous by its absence.

    May as well just dispense with the campaign and have the vote now as the whole thing looks pretty much like it isn’t going to change dramatically.

    Save us all the arguing.

  28. @ James Peel

    OK apologies if that’s your view. I thought you said on one thread that Con would reach 40% the way things were heading. One poster certainly did.
    I think Con will win most seats but nowhere near enough to form any kind of Govt. So in essence I agree a Lab led arrangement will form the next Govt without in my view the moral authority to govern….and I’m a leftie.
    We are heading for tumultuous times if the polls remain this tight.

  29. @ old nat
    I have to reply, because not to do so would be ducking out.
    Your party has unequivacably stated that it would support a minority Labour govt, whilst Labour is being very quiet on whether it requires that support. I think that you now have to state whether you would support a no confidence vote against the Cons if they have the majority of votes and seats in the UK or would be happy to use your block vote on issues as they affected Scotland, one by one.

  30. OK apologies if that’s your view. I thought you said on one thread that Con would reach 40% the way things were heading. One poster certainly did.

    some chap or other did say the crazy 40% view. I am known to be fairly anti-left, but I am not a crazy man and have got some knowledge of polls and basic statistics…the tories aren’t going to put on 6% in 8 weeks.

  31. @ David in Oxford: “Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats.”

    How could he be unseated if he had a majority of seats?

  32. @ spearmint

    @ David in Oxford,
    “Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats”.

    To quote another Tory Prime Minister, “Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.” I reckon there will be a lot of grousing in southern pubs and very few other consequences.

    ———-

    Very well put, Spearmint.

    There would be the murmuring you mention and some headlines in larger than normal ink.

    Other than that nothing at all would happen.

  33. Re snp and labour ,the maths will out as always-

    But some snp strategists think what else could happen is the new tory leader would advocate brexit in a referendum,progressive politics would rule for five years driving the tories and their press into an absolute frenzy.

    Tories win landslide in 2020,

    Uk votes to leave EU on the back of English votes,scotland and wales vote against.Scots hold referendum and Yes wins.

    Thats what the snp think could happen.

    Labour no.doubt sees another scenario.

  34. @OldNat “How could a different political grouping unseat ” the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats”?”

    I mean it’s so unfair that parties who fail to get a majority of seats are not just automatically allowed to form a government without pesky things like the Confidence of the House.

    These MPs ought to learn their place and stop insisting on voting for who should be PM. Very undemocratic business.

  35. BN

    “Oh my, the new YouGov is indicating that Labour has risen from 31 to 35 in just 3 days. UK Tories must now be placing each other on suicide watch…. or it all could just be noise.”

    Given MOE – which everyone here is fully aware of – I don’t think anyone reads polls in the way you describe.

    As has often been discussed polls are seen in groups: in that respect every single one has some significance but only in the way it fits in with longer term trends.

  36. @ BristolianHoward,

    What I found, after this particular recent set of Con leads, was that no identifiable reason for it was in any shape of form, discernable.

    Heh. Sad but true.

    What I think we’re actually seeing is a slight, overall improvement for the Tories- a shift in their standard range, if you will- which has put them about 1 or 2% ahead of Labour’s standard range. They’re on 34% tonight- that’s a very good poll for them by 2013-2015 standards!- so even though they happen to be behind in this one they’re still doing well. Even the occasional 31% doesn’t change that.

    Coupled with the new YouGov volatility and this bizarre weekly cycle it means we’re going to get patches of big Tory leads, and possibly even some patches of Labour leads, so we really have to look at the rolling averages and not individual polls if we want to understand what’s going on. Without a reason for a big shift I think we have to assume we’re seeing randomly amplified consequences of gradual movements rather than an abrupt change.

  37. @David in Oxford

    Are you perhaps confusing Plurality and Majority?

    If Con has a majority it matters not how anyone votes in a Confidence Vote.

    If Con has a plurality SNP has been clear they will support a No Confidence Vote.

    Why would that action be controversial? They will be representing the majority of their supporters as polling clearly shows a majority of SNP supporters would prefer a Labour led government (about 80/20 last time I looked).

  38. CB – I think the clue is in the handle.
    CAT MAN JEFF.

    Howard’s 4 in a row is back with vengeance.

  39. @Spearmint
    Thanks for your work on the churn. A beam of light through the fog.

  40. “Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats.”

    I suspect it will be very difficult for them politically, if they are perceived to be doing a bad job, but remarkably easy if they are thought of as having done well.

    I think we actually care very little for anything to do with the constitution in itself, but we seem to care an awful lot about governments that do a bad job.

  41. @ Spearmint.
    I think you are probably about right. Con possibly just edging ahead of Lab as things currently stand and probably edging a little further ahead by May. I can see something like a 34/32 split on May 7th but not enough for Con to govern.

  42. @ 07052015

    Some SNP strategists think what else could happen is the new tory leader would advocate brexit in a referendum,progressive politics would rule for five years driving the tories and their press into an absolute frenzy.

    Tories win landslide in 2020..

    Then they haven’t been paying attention to elections for the last 20 years.

    If my memory serves me right, the Tories last won an election outright in 1992. By 2020 that will be 28 years. And you’d have to go back 33 years to find them last winning a majority on a ‘right wing’ manifesto.

    Maybe the demographics just aren’t there any more for them? (Just like they are no longer there for Labour with Scotland going to down the SNP route).

    Perhaps the UK is in for several generations of coalitions? Current polls seems to support the idea that neither ‘side’ can win under their own steam.

    Perhaps only an avowedly centrist LAB or CON has any hope of winning majorities any more?

  43. Have you any idea what would happen if an anti Tory block vote including 55 votes from the SNP unseated the British Prime Minister with a majority of votes and seats.

    This doesn’t make sense to me. If he has a “majority of votes & seats”, how can he be “unseated”? Did I miss an important part of the conversation which explains how this could happen?

  44. @spearmint
    One of 3 things is going to happen……
    1. DC and Farage are going do a deal and be on 47%
    2. AJ will be Labour leader next week, and they will be on 47%
    3. We continue to have weekly polls, plus\ minus 2% and we can continue to discuss stalemate, a constitutional crisis and another election in November which I fear the Tories will win by a landslide.
    Unfortunately, at the moment 3 is the only likely outcome for stable government.

  45. To maximise human misery/lulz, my ideal EU referendum scenario is as follows:

    England votes for Brexit, but by a tiny, tiny margin, small enough that Scotland’s vote to remain swings the whole UK to “In”.

    Imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth! Imagine what colour Nigel Farage’s face will turn!

    And the SNP will have to pretend to be pleased that their side won the day, but secretly they’ll be tearing their hair out at losing the pretext for a second independence referendum and at the clear evidence Scotland’s wishes can influence UK policy after all.

  46. This is why I was relaxed earlier today. Polls go up, polls go down in the great circle. The Zen of statistics.

  47. “Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP – they’re all just spokes on a wheel. This one’s on top, then that one’s on top, and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. I’m not going to stop the wheel: I’m going to break the wheel!”

    Leader of the Dragon Party at her campaign launch earlier this week, correctly anticipating the continuing polling cycle. I may have misremembered some of the finer details of that speech but, still, interesting times!

  48. Ann in Wales

    Thank you for those kind words. I don’t think I’m particularly well qualified to add too much, but I do really enjoy following UKPR. I’m not from Canada, I live in France, but years ago I scraped an MBA from ‘Western’ in London, Ontario. I went there on the recommendation of a professor at LSE, a certain Bob Mckenzie who popularized (but did not invent) the much-loved Swingometer, (which continues to swing away on this site to this day.)

    Bob was a close friend; very very close… and he was a CANADIAN.

  49. David in Oxford

    Others have made my point for me. I was simply asking a technical question about what possible circumstances (other than internal rebellion) could result in a PM with a majority of seats being defeated.

    As to your response – in the circumstances that you describe, I’d imagine that if there was a vote of confidence against a Tory Government, the SNP would vote against the Government – regardless of the fact that the Government would win.

    It didn’t require much imagination to come to that conclusion either! :-)

    PS I didn’t “have” to do anything. Like every other poster on here I am not a spokesperson for the party that I currently happen to support.

  50. On the art of Zen polling, chanting OM OM OM will not prevent a hung parliament.

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