Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. This follows on from a four point Conservative lead in yesterday’s YouGov poll and a one point Tory lead in their Sunday Times poll at the weekend.

Earlier on today there was also a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline Westminster voting intentions in Wales stand at CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, PC 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% – Roger Scully’ analysis of it is over on his Elections in Wales blog here.


524 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

1 2 3 4 5 11
  1. What I pick up from a number of comments (I mention no names but you know who you are) as to which party will hold the most seats/balance of power etc. based on this individual poll or that or even on a few days of polls is a, thinly disguised, expression of wishful thinking.
    I will say that the only thing I am prepared to predict about the election is that whatever I predict will be wrong to some greater or lesser degree. What we have now is a sample based statistical estimate as to what the electorate is planning to do at this point in time. I have said it before (if I misquote Pratchett I apologise) it is amazing the ability of a friend to see life in a corpse.
    On a very real electoral basis, on which there seems to be no reversal of trend recently each of the two the major parties have lost legitimacy with a large and growing proportion of the electorate. That is a situation that cannot continue indefinitely. If the polls remain as they are or close to where they are this could be the watershed election.

  2. The perception seems to be that Labour heavily assisted by the media are screwing this election up.

    I still expect to see Ed Miliband as PM come 8th May(maybe nearer June) but I do wonder how well it will go down if Tories have a majority of seats secure 35% and UKIP 15%, yet Labour with 30%, and SNP on 4% win power. Can Labour justify going into government in this senario?

  3. WB. I agree a lot of what I read is wishful thinking, I can only guess based on current polls to the makeup of the next government. In the end polls could move in any direction, the Greens could secure 9% or as low as 3% of the vote, ukip could secure 20% of the vote or 10%, LD 12% or 5%. We will only know on the 8th May.
    Not supporting Labour or Conservative, which I have done(both) in the last the past, does make you see things in a different light.

  4. John J

    ” Can Labour justify going into government in this senario?”

    I have never found politicians unwilling to justify anything, if they can achieve power!

  5. @john J,then the tories will just have to deals,like parties in other countries have to do.A Lab/SNP coalition is just not something I believe can or will happen without serious consequences for the UK Constitution.

  6. There is nothing to suggest that the two Labour 31 scores are anything other than co-incidental MoE variation.

    The Conservatives have been on <=31 five times so far this year, most recently on the 5th March.

    The only other time Labour have been <=31 before the last days was on 20/01/15 when they scored a 30.

  7. BRAMLEY
    Why on earth would Labour choose another period in Opposition when they could be in Government ?
    The whole point of being an MP is to see the party of which you belong, become the Government of the day.

    That’s the kind of strategic thinking that has helped the Liberal Democrats get where they are today ;)

  8. Couper2802

    I notice the popularity of the SNP in coalition has dipped considerably in the recent YouGov compared to a previous poll

    I’m not quite sure what polls you meant here, but Ashcroft asked this week:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ANP-summary-150309X1.pdf

    Would you be happy or unhappy to see each of the following parties become part of a coalition government after the next election? and got the following responses (nett happy – nett unhappy):

    Greens 48 – 44 = +4 (-6)

    Lib Dems 45 -47 = -2 (-2)

    UKIP 36 – 57 = -21 (-6)

    Plaid 32 – 61 = -23 (-10)

    SNP 31 – 61 = -30 (-2)

    SDLP 22 – 62 = -40 (-9)

    DUP 19 – 68 = -49 (-12)

    Sinn Fein 16 – 74 = -58 (n/c)

    (Figures in brackets change from last time question asked end November).

    It’s not a particularly revealing question because there’s no ‘indifferent’ option only DK, which I think distorts things a lot. And I’m not sure un/happy is the best dichotomy for peoples feelings on this. But it does indicate that, despite the recent love-bombing of the SNP by the London-based Press, the attitude to say a Labour-SNP coalition has changed little in the last three months.

  9. We’ve been hearing lots of declarations of “x-party won’t deal with y-party”: I think only some of them can be taken seriously, when there’s power on offer, deals become easier.

  10. roll a hard six

    “The Nationalist view that Scots’ only country is Scotland and that every single thing about Britain and being British is wrong is very alienating to many people too you know.”

    That is certainly how it often appears but perhaps the alienation is deliberate?

    Some time back I sort of joked about having a Scots-Independence referendum again – but this time in the rUK, but I do seriously wonder what result it would throw up as things stand

  11. Given the experience of the Lib Dems, the SNP would be likely be badly damaged if they got into bed with Labour (or any other pro-Union party for that matter).

  12. @john

    wishing that someone “no longer exists” may just fall foul of the comments policy…

    @mibri

    There already has been an (unofficial) Labour / SNP deal at Westminster level, in the 1974-79 parliament. It was the unraveling of that arrangement that led to the no confidence vote in Callaghan’s government. Before the partition of Ireland, there was more than one example of Liberals and Irish nationalists teaming up to vote out Tory governments.

  13. @Roger Mexico

    There doesn’t seem to be much difference between the attitude towards UKIP and SNP, once you factor in that there are a lot more UKIP supporters across GB as a whole.

    I looked at that Ashcroft poll and it seemed to be largely partisan breakdowns, e.g. Tories were by far the most hostile to the SNP, while Labour supporters were more evenly split. There was similar partisanship in respect of other parties (e.g. UKIP).

  14. From the detail it looks as if the actual figures in todays YouGov were Con 33.45 Lab 31.45 – so almost 34 -32. The Scotland crossbreak is also very poor for Labour who are on just 20 compared with 18 for the Tories. In 2010 Labour were circa 25% ahead of the Tories there which suggests that the massive reduction in that margin pretty well accounts for the GB Tory lead.

  15. “@john J,then the tories will just have to deals,like parties in other countries have to do.A Lab/SNP coalition is just not something I believe can or will happen without serious consequences for the UK Constitution.”

    Spot on. Can Labour justify a coalition in such circumstances without the English 90% of the electorate(GB), rebelling against FPTP or the punishing Labour. Maybe a good election to lose, Lib Dems must have wished the Tories had got a majority is a prime example.

  16. Fun
    That comment was funny :)

  17. Roger

    You missed a couple of parties. Maybe you foresee the apocalypse of 2020 when PC,SNP, ukip, LD’s and the Greens dominate politics.

  18. @James ,thanks for that,I am guessing this time though it would be official and I think despite what certain polls may say ,the silent English majority may well suddenly find their voice and a similair result may happen very quickly.
    It would do damage to both parties in the long run.
    My thinking is the tories are going to use this possibility as huge weapon to beat Labour in England,whether it works is another matter,we havent even considered bringing Irish nationalists into the mix yet .

  19. If Labour reject an agreement of some sort with SNP and the maths support this as an option, who will be the Govt. Lab + SNP has a majority, then it is unlikely that anyone else has. Are we stright into another election. And if that turns out the same….?

  20. @jojhn j,more to the point,I wonder whether the tories wish Scotland had voted for independance,

  21. @Graham

    I think we need to be looking the English figure to assertain the number of seat Lab And Con will likely secure. I still think Lab will take the seat count on recent Yougov figures, that’s what the crystal ball says anyhow.

  22. @Colin

    Which chart?

  23. PAUL,
    Same question I am asking myself.Constitutional crisis in the making here i think

  24. Both Cameron and Miliband are both batting on sticky wickets. They are both stuck between satisfying their wings and creating a wide enough spectrum of support to gain a majority.

    I remain to be convinced that Cameron has done any better than Miliband on this matter of substance.

  25. “45% of Scots voted SNP in 2011”

    To be more precise, about a quarter of the Scottish electorate voted SNP in 2011.

    The quantity issue is entirely irrelevant. Someone could have been anti-SNP for reasons of prejudice back when they got less than 1% of the vote and they could be anti-SNP without prejudice even if the SNP were getting 80% of the vote.

  26. “If Labour reject an agreement of some sort with SNP and the maths support this as an option, who will be the Govt. Lab + SNP has a majority, then it is unlikely that anyone else has. Are we stright into another election. And if that turns out the same….?”

    Above my pay grade :)
    That’s one for the politicians and the Queen to sort, good luck. but all parties must be worried about any deal after the Lib Dem collapse.

  27. “I remain to be convinced that Cameron has done any better than Miliband on this matter of substance”

    What does this mean?

    If you’re implying that Cameron has been bad at creating a winning coalition, you’re absolutely right. It’s just that this has been apparent since 2012….the tories have been at about 32/33 since august 2013.

    It’s labour’s mild implosion that continues to baffle pollsters and pundits…we are now wondering where the labour floor is…32? 31? 30? 29? nobody knows… miliband’s ratings are worse than dire and his seeming inability, as the leader of the labour movement, definitively to end the bullingdon duopoly of messrs cameron and osborne is one of the political wonders of the age.

  28. I wonder how prominent a role is likely to be assigned to Gordon Brown for the election campaign in Scotland. Is he likely to repeat the barnstorming performance of the Referendum campaign?

  29. Hawthorn,

    I’m not sure he has, but I think crucially the UKIP surge happened earlier than the Green/SNP surge, and this gave the Tories longer to react. The Tories have gone through the stages of lost votes grief: denial, “They’ll change their minds when they see it means the other lot will get in”, and policy adjustment. Labour are arguably in phase 2 of grief and they are running out of time to seal the deal with the electorate.

    Interestingly, the same shock effect happened with the Tories in 2010: they were on their way to win clearly when it was a Tories vs. Labour contest, but then everything changed with Cleggmania, and they didn’t have enough time to turn things around in a Tories vs. Labour vs. Lib Dem race.

  30. “@jojhn j,more to the point,I wonder whether the tories wish Scotland had voted for independance,

    Nah, they wouldn’t want to lose their friend in Scotland, anyway deluded as politicians are, they expect to win a bunch of seats in Scotland and win a UK majority. I might have to eat humble pie, 8th May!

  31. Peter Crawford

    Currently, Labour are stable on around 33%. In 2009 they were on 29%.

    They could end up higher or lower than that on polling day.

    I think you need to go into a quiet room with a basic stats book and calm down! ;)

  32. Sorry, that should have read 2010, not 2009 of course!

  33. The Red Dems may have ultimately hurt rather than helped Labour, because they encouraged a sense of complacency, and a feeling that Labour didn’t have to persuade ex-Labour Tory voters to come back. That the Red Dems were not natural Labour voters and that parties to the left of Labour could win them over should have been apparent after the events of 2011 in Scotland, but wasn’t, including to me.

  34. “It’s labour’s mild implosion that continues to baffle pollsters and pundits…we are now wondering where the labour floor is…32? 31? 30? 29? nobody knows”

    You are spot, what is puzzeling is a slight UKIP and possibly Lib Dem bounce at Labour’s expense. That shouldn’t be happening from what I’ve read.

  35. Also, that’s a good poll for the Tories in Wales. In both Scotland and Wales, it looks like they will poll no more than a little below their 2010 levels. In Scotland that can be attributed to their vote being very much “core vote” at this stage, but the Tories have made progress in Wales since 1997, and they don’t seem to have lost much of it in Wales despite austerity and the rise of UKIP.

  36. Hawthorn

    “Peter Crawford
    Currently, Labour are stable on around 33%. In 2009 they were on 29%.
    They could end up higher or lower than that on polling day.
    I think you need to go into a quiet room with a basic stats book and calm down! ”

    you are having a laugh aren’t you?

    We have had the total implosion of the liberal democrats from 23.5% to 5% in some polls, the quadrupling of ukip, who every poll has shown take more conservative 2010 voters than labour ones, from 3.2% to an average of about 14% today….

    and you think labour have done well to be polling at 33% , when they were on 38% a year ago….

    If I were a Labour supporter I would be in despair. yet you, I don’t know where your political preferences like, seem to think labour’s performance has been adequate, if not good….

    you’re kidding, no?

  37. Bill Patrick

    The UKIP surge came after Cameron’s “veto” narrative unravelled, closely followed by the “omnishambles” budget,

    Since then the Tories have remained at around 33%, with a dip to 30% in spring 2013. The Tories may well have had a nice Kubler-Ross style group-hug but it has not done their polling any good whatsoever.

  38. Bramley,

    My point is that Labour may not have the option of rejecting SNP support and then forming a minority government. If the Tories win more seats than Labour, it is possible that the only plausible outcomes will be:-

    (1) a Labour government supported by the SNP;

    (2) a minority Tory-led coalition;

    (3) a Tory/Labour coalition.

    In that situation, Miliband might well decide that (1) is his best (or least bad) option, especially as it is the only one that will guarantee him a spell as PM.


  39. Peter Crawford
    Currently, Labour are stable on around 33%. In 2009 they were on 29%.
    They could end up higher or lower than that on polling day.
    I think you need to go into a quiet room with a basic stats book and calm down! ;)”

    Yes, but Labour had this in the bag 18 months ago, and really should be winning by a cantor, with a very unpopular government, what’s gone wrong? Do they need to offer an EU referendum? Why are voters flocking to the Greens and the SNP? Labour have clearly done something wrong.

  40. John J,

    A forgivable mistake, but you mean “winning by a canter”. Georg Cantor was a great mathematician who went insane.

  41. Hawthorn,

    As you say, the Tories dipped to a low of about 30% and have since recovered. That was my point. Labour could see a similar improvement to 36%, if they have time.

  42. Peter Crawford

    33% is bad, but it is the same as the Tories. It is also an improvement rather than a decline on the last election.

    Cameron blew an unlosable election and is on course to do even worse against a leader who is supposed to have the leadership and physical qualities of plasticine. All this with a party who hasn’t won a majority since 1992.

    The unpartisan truth is that both main parties are performing extremely badly by the standards of the 20th Century.

  43. (Recovered relative to polling 30%, that is!)

  44. Bill Patrick

    30% was a short dip at the very nadir of mid-term.

    Cameron is obviously doing much better than Brown did in terms of polling. That is not much of a benchmark.

  45. @Peter Crawford

    29% would be the realistic for the Conservatives. In the last 2.5 years, they had:

    27% – 2
    28% – 2
    29% – 13

    Labour at their (then) least popular would be 29% too. If that were repeated today, and factoring in the Scottish VI, we’re talking 27% at the worst I think.

  46. @ Hawthorn

    Unless EM has something spectacular up his sleeve I think the game’s up for Labour. Saying that I’m not totally convinced the Tories will get an OM but I wouldn’t be surprised if they poll in the upper 30’s at the GE. IMO the possibility of the SNP holding the balance of power in Govt is getting a lot of floating England based voters very nervous, the Tories will milk this in the coming weeks.

  47. @John J
    “Labour have clearly done something wrong.”

    I don’t think so to be honest. I also don’t buy this “Ed looks weird so people won’t vote for Labour” narrative. It certainly wouldn’t stop me voting for a party.

    First and foremost people want security, including economic security. The improvement in the British economy and the perception that Labour might endanger this would hurt the Labour vote. 18 months ago the economy was looking a *lot* worse than it does now.

    You will also have people put off by possible Labour-SNP collaboration, but we’ve already had that discussion no point going over it again.

    Labour are strong on the NHS and people believe they’re the best bet for looking after public services, but it’s very tough to beat the “economic security” argument if it’s done convincingly.

  48. @ John J ”
    Yes, but Labour had this in the bag 18 months ago, and really should be winning by a cantor, with a very unpopular government, what’s gone wrong? Do they need to offer an EU referendum? Why are voters flocking to the Greens and the SNP? Labour have clearly done something wrong.”

    My point from earlier is that both major parties have got it wrong and as of yet, apart from the nationalist surge in Scotland, none of the minor parties has got it right (that may be a function of FTTP) what is clear is that no party is offering an agenda which grips 40% let alone a majority of the electorate.
    I may be being partisan, in a non party political way, when I say that I blame the professionalising of politics. I am not concerned with whether an MP has had a real job when I say that. What I am concerned with is the denuding of ideas from politics, where is the coherent underpinning ideology? The best that any of these political pygmies that currently form the leadership of these parties is I can be a better manager than you. This has led to legislating as a form of PR rather than because of any need for a new law and a cynicism towards politics and politicians greater than I have known in my lifetime. The position in Scotland may be considerably different after the referendum but in the rest of the UK it is a case of the Bland leading the Bored (it might be salutary to note that Dennis Healey would probably be considered a dangerous radical left winger in the modern labour party and RAB Butler a dangerous European project fanatic)

  49. “30% was a short dip at the very nadir of mid-term.”

    Entirely consistent with what I’m saying. My point is not that the Tories are doing well- they aren’t- but that they had time to react to losing a lot of support to UKIP. Labour have had much less time to deal with a comparable surge, in their case from their left, and it would be quite an achievement if they can win much of it back over the next two months.

  50. @ Omnishambles
    Maybe you are right, we are seeing a fragmentation of UK politics. Unless Labour are going to go anti Trident, anti-uniin or anti EU, then there is no surprise voters are flocking to smaller niche parties. You can’t be everything to everyone, so in my lifetime we could end up with no big parties, just 10 small ones, scary prospect.

1 2 3 4 5 11