Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. This follows on from a four point Conservative lead in yesterday’s YouGov poll and a one point Tory lead in their Sunday Times poll at the weekend.

Earlier on today there was also a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline Westminster voting intentions in Wales stand at CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, PC 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% – Roger Scully’ analysis of it is over on his Elections in Wales blog here.


524 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. After election day, it will be interesting to see what YouGov has to say about their weighting. It is…interesting.

  2. Any details on the Youguv latest?

    Regarding the SNP’s continuing high figures, I agree with BN, I think it was, who pointed to the anti-Scots rhetoric of some in the south. What sort of reaction is to be expected from those who are told that on no account are their votes to be given any consideration?

  3. Apologies – it was ON, not BN. BN made some other very intelligent comments instead……

  4. @John B

    There has been comments on here from the likes of Omnishambles that echo the unionist press. For a group that want to ‘keep their country together’ currently the Tories & the unionist press are doing more than the SNP to push Scotland towards independence.

    The Conservatives, for all their protestations last September are willing to stir up anti-Scots sentiment in England for electoral advantage.

    I notice the popularity of the SNP in coalition has dipped considerably in the recent YouGov compared to a previous poll

    Hint – we have internet in Scotland just because you don’t put the articles etc in your Scottish editions doesn’t mean we don’t see them.

  5. @Bill Patrick – 11.04 p.m.

    ‘I still expect a Labour-led government, but this evening up (and even a Tory lead?!) does mean that a Labour majority government is less likely. The crucial thing during the campaign will be a Tory to UKIP swing, I think, as UKIP will get a big chance to win over right-wing Tories.’

    You are correct in thinking that the UKIP-Tory relationship will be very important. I cannot personally see a Lab majority govt anywhere on the horizon…….. nor a Tory one either……

    However

    The most important thing, as it seems to me, is the fact that people are getting all worked up about a Tory VI of 33 or 34%, as though this were some sort of major triumph, when it is nothing of the sort. For either of the leading contenders for government to be on less than 37% would, in previous elections, have been regarded as tantamount to having lost all hope!

    If Labour continues to drift, their chances of leading a government deteriorate. Their only potential major partner is dismissed by those in the south as unacceptable.

    Yet we are hard placed to see any viable partner for the Tories, as those LDs who survive are more likely to be licking their wounds and wanting out, and UKIP may not gain more than a few seats at best.

    How many LD seats will fall to the Tories? And how many to Labour? Will the difference between the two figures be decisive?

    The closer it gets to May 7 the more likely it seems to me that, mathematically speaking, the only workable solution will be a Tory-Lab agreement. No other combination supplies anything like a sound majority which would be acceptable to the English (the SNP being regarded as totally unacceptable).

    The only alternative is for a very unstable minority government – the last thing (so we are told) we need, given the economic decisions which will have to be made in 2016.

    Labour really must come up with a thoroughly worked through major constitutional plan if they are to win back the seats they need. But it is now too late.

  6. No Plaid Cymru support in the Welsh poll?

  7. @ Miserable Old Git

    @ pete

    “I expect a 4 point Tory lead by GE day, possibly even higher.”

    @ omnishambles

    “I predict a 5 point Tory lead for the general election, translating to just over 300 seats and a likely continuation of the Coalition with additional DUP support.”

    ———————-

    Thank you both for your stimulating and insightful analysis. It adds a great deal to the sum total of human knowledge.

    ——————————–

    Well put.

    The point being not that every post has to be based on a thoroughgoing statistical analysis but rather that it ought to be based on the polls and not on “feel” or “guess” or worse, which
    I’m not saying these were, on political persuasion.

    eg. There is no polling evidence whatsoever to suggest 37 CON and 32 LAB.

    On such a basis we could all start saying “I think it will be LD 42, GREEN 21 and the rest less than 10”.

    And as MOG says, who cares what “we think” if we are basing it on nothing very much? Put it another way, ‘It’s the polls, stupid’. Polls are what this website is about.

  8. Are the Tories really ahead? Ed Miliband must be reaching for his Gas-X right about now. It’s like I pop out of this place for a week or two and polls change. Should be a fascinating election (can’t believe we’re 9 weeks out).

    In horribly sad and awful news (politically anyway) on my end, this happened,

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-west-hollywood-election-heilman-20150306-story.html

    I’m sure some of you remember this discussion from 4 years ago. The whole thing makes me very sad and deeply cynical about politics. I would imagine what I feel right now is akin to what you Scots Nats felt after the referendum.

    Btw, I had mentioned this election before and how fascinating it was. Turns out that John’s colleague, John Duran, did in fact hire his Council Deputy after meeting him off of Grindr. After denying it repeatedly, he finally decided to admit the day before the election. Sigh.

    Now, in my haze of sadness (despite other good results locally…and I don’t even live in West Hollywood), there is some light. Due the extraordinary selfishness of one of John’s former colleagues, there’s an election for a vacancy on the Council being held in June. John wasn’t going to run in it but was begged by just about everyone in town (and outside it if you count me) to change his mind. He did and hopefully we’ll find a way to get him back on the Council. He told everyone on election night that life would move on regardless of what the results were. But apparently, he’s the only one who got the message (the rest of us are sad yet motivated).

  9. Two labour 31s on yougov in a row…incredible…nobody would have guessed that a year ago. labour must be praying this thing is over quickly.

    I admire the tendency of people like Ann in Wales to blame Ed Balls and everyone around Ed Miliband…there’s clearly a problem, but it’s miliband himself, not his team, that is the cause of it.

  10. I really cannot see any constitutional problem if the SNP went into coalition with Labour (do not think they will anyway, probably more of an informal vote by vote situation), but if they did go into coalition, so what. They were elected by their constituents to represent their interests in Parliament. The Parliament is for the whole country, not just England or the Southeast for that matter.

    Are people really saying we should in effect dis-enfranchise the the million or 2 million plus who may vote for the SNP
    I was against independence and am not a fan of the SNP but they are a legitimate Political Party, who are entitled to try and get their policies through and or contribute to Parliament. I would have similar views if people were calling for the conservatives to rule out any coalition with UKIP’

    It seems the greatest danger and the one most likely to hasten the break up of the UK are attempts to try and shut out a large section of the British electorate from the Political process.
    Shame on those that are playing this card for party political advantage

  11. Barney

    It’s a site where, every so often, I agree with you. :-)

  12. Its called getting your retaliation in first.

    Tho what they could throw at EM now that hasnt been thrown.

    Lurid stuff in the guardian today about mrs cameron and her company -but it wont feature in the tory press who are more concerned with saving jeremy clarkson.

  13. Barney

    “I haven’t known many politicians die of shame.”

    I suppose that depends on whether one thinks of the politician feeling shame (a rather unusual thing in the West, though quite common in the Far East), or the shame felt by the politician’s former voters at having previously voted for them.

    The latter has been a quite common cause of political demise.

  14. @John B
    @couper

    Anti-SNP =/= anti-Scots

    It’s a simple but important distinction. The SNP’s fan club on this site would do well to remember less than half of Scots support the SNP. Or to put it another way, over 55% of Scots do not support the SNP.

    Therefore, to frame opinions like mine as “anti-Scots” is utterly ridiculous. I would feel the same if English nationalists or Welsh nationalists swapped places with the SNP.

  15. @ John B

    What sort of reaction is to be expected from those who are told that on no account are their votes to be given any consideration?

    The Scottish & English nationalists are reacting in the same way but from opposite sides of the fence.

    English ones furious that the Tories may be thwarted by the SNP; the Scottish ones furious that the Tories are making hay with the SNP’s statement that they will not support a Tory government.

    Meanwhile, the ‘one nation’ voters try to empathise with both points of view but cannot thole the tactics being deployed by both sides.

  16. Labour really are limping along. Shouldn’t Ed be out there more now?

  17. @JohnB
    I see where you’re coming from, but a Lab-Con coalition will *never* happen. Quite apart from anything else, the ideological differences are the greatest they have been since about the late 80s. I’d imagine they’re insurmountable. This isn’t like Germany where the national government is a thin veneer atop the extensive powers of the Länder, and the CDU/CSU and SPD can work together.

    @NeilJ
    I agree that the existence of 40+SNP MPs is not a constitutional crisis (yet). They would have as much right as anyone else to be part of a coalition or C&S. It’s also obvious that their eventual ambition is to break up the UK, but post-indyref the prospect of another indyref is very slim.

    However, I am very sceptical of the idea that the SNP is working towards pressuring a post-May Labour government. The SNP are absolutely determined to damage Lab as much as possible and deny them an OM in May (which is, of course, perfectly reasonable for a political party). Any talk of some kind of social democratic umbrella is fanciful. Their best outcome is for a very weak Cameron back in No 10, relying on a messy C&S from a variety of parties, who would be most amenable to giving the SNP further concessions. That is what they are aiming for. Having said that, I’m wondering if there’s a ‘shy unionist’ element to the Scottish polls, and whether or not anti-SNP tactical voting is being picked up. I would not be surprised if Labour save up to 20 seats.

    Moreover, I am deeply sceptical of their anti-Tory protestations. Unlike, er, Labour, the SNP routinely used Con votes to get their budgets through a few years ago. To this day I can’t believe Alistair Darling didn’t deploy that in the second debate. It would have killed off the notion that the SNP are uniquely allergic to the Tories. If Cameron has to rely on SNP votes at all after May, you can bet your pension the SNP will suddenly find a way of doing so, under cover of getting a better deal or whatever.

    Finally, a period of unstable/unworkable government may not be a bad thing at all. Belgium managed without a functioning government for 18 months. It would stop the rush to (often ill-judged) legislation, and give space for contemplation and negotiation. [snip]

  18. JOHN B

    “If Labour continues to drift, their chances of leading a government deteriorate. Their only potential major partner is dismissed by those in the south as unacceptable.”

    I expect that almost all Tory, LibDem and UKIP voters will say that they regard the SNP as unacceptable partners for Labour, if only because they do not want Labour to form the next government. The real question is what percentage of Labour voters in England and Wales would accept, or even welcome, SNP support. Indeed, if Labour rejects a clear opportunity to govern with SNP support, and settles for another term in opposition, what percentage of Labour voters will feel so betrayed by Labour that they will vow never to vote Labour again?

    As for a coalition of Labour and the Tories, Miliband surely cannot ignore what becoming coalition partners of the Tories has done to the LibDems. If the final numbers are such that Labour can form the government if, and only if, they do a deal with the SNP, Miliband may feel that he has no other choice, if he does not want to be remembered as the Labour leader who destroyed any prospect of his party winning an election for at least a political generation.

  19. @Omnishambles

    45% of Scots voted SNP in 2011 over 50 % of Scots are currently considering voting SNP in the GE. So when you say that the SNP should be shut out of the democratic process you shut out half of Scots.

    This time last year I was a Labour Party member, since the referendum I have become more convinced that independence is the only option for Scotland. The people that protest that they want to keep ‘their country’ together are driving people away,

  20. @ Old Nat

    “I suppose that depends on whether one thinks of the politician feeling shame (a rather unusual thing in the West, though quite common in the Far East), or the shame felt by the politician’s former voters at having previously voted for them.”

    Well not unusual but these days increasingly less usual. I’m trying to remember how many people I have felt shame over previously having voted for. Not that many to be honest with you.

    “The latter has been a quite common cause of political demise.”

    Heh. I know I felt some shame over having voted for John Noguez for County Assessor. After he was indicted for federal fraud and corruption charges anyway. I think he’s in prison now but I’m not 100% sure.

  21. @Les Cunningham

    I agree and SNP policies are ones that Labour voters can support and welcome: anti-Austerity, no Trident renewal, no NHS privatisation Policy wise SNP-UK Labour are a good fit.

  22. Tark

    I’ve read your post with a historian’s eye.

    It seems somewhat lacking in evidence and to have a superfluity of assumptions.

    Probably a source that I would tag as useful for exploring the mindset of the author, but otherwise returned to the library shelves. :-)

  23. @SocalLiberal
    @Old Nat

    I am still at anger haven’t reachef shame yet.

  24. @couper
    >”over 50 % of Scots are currently considering voting SNP in the GE”

    Number Cruncher and Election Forecast put the SNP vote at 42% and 46% respectively. Source:
    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/03/scotland-update-ashcroft-analysis.html/

    >”So when you say that the SNP should be shut out of the democratic process you shut out half of Scots.”

    When did I say that? You are putting words in my mouth. As Tark said above, the SNP have a constitutional right to be in government. I am not saying they shouldn’t be allowed, I am saying that the *prospect* of nationalists in a C&S agreement with the UK government is very worrying and it will affect the nationwide VI. It’s precisely because it can happen that makes the threat so real.

    >”The people that protest that they want to keep ‘their country’ together are driving people away”

    That’s pretty rich coming from SNP voters whose goal is to “drive away” the rest of the UK.

  25. @ Couper2802

    ‘This time last year I was a Labour Party member, since the referendum I have become more convinced that independence is the only option for Scotland. The people that protest that they want to keep ‘their country’ together are driving people away,’

    Whenever a situation doesn’t make sense, it is a good idea to question what might be the advantage to the ‘others’ who are inviting you to feel like that. After all, it is not all ‘people’ who are trying to stir up feelings between the Scottish people and rUK. I feel sure that you are very adept at identifying all sorts of political ploys.

  26. SoCalLiberal

    Always nice to see your comments when you pop in, and to hear how things are going for the sovereign people of California.

    My son sent me a link to a nice satire piece in the New Yorker

    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/iran-offers-to-mediate-talks-between-republicans-and-obama

    The “liberal Eastern Establishment” [add Nixonian expletives as desired] seems to have a bit of satire around. How popular is it on your side of the USA – or do your politicians self-satirise themselves? :-)

  27. @Omnishambles

    I said ‘considering’ it’s in the crossbreaks on polls ‘which party would you consider voting for’ OR ‘which party have you ruled out voting for’ SNP always has over 50% possibles.

  28. @OLdNat
    I wasn’t writing with my historian’s hat on. I had my political scientist hat on, the one that works on democratic process :)

    It seems clear to me that the overlap in sympathies and political leanings between Labour and the SNP means that the former is fair game for the latter. Like any party, the SNP’s only priority is its own position and that of its voters. The sense that they’re manoeuvring to deny Lab an OM so as to support a minority Lab govt contains far too many variables and unknowns to be considered a platform for strategy.

  29. @Tark

    “The SNP are absolutely determined to damage Lab as much as possible and deny them an OM in May (which is, of course, perfectly reasonable for a political party).”

    Well Labour is certainly being damaged at a time when the threat of the SNP pulling Labour’s strings is one of the key aspects of Conservative campaigning. So it’s a case of be careful what you wish for. Given the way the polls are going, a goal of denying Labour an outright majority may end up with the Conservatives having enough seats on their own to be able to form a viable minority or even majority government.

  30. TARK
    The sense that they’re manoeuvring to deny Lab an OM so as to support a minority Lab govt contains far too many variables and unknowns to be considered a platform for strategy.

    It worked for the Irish home rulers vs the Liberals, but admittedly the old Liberals were home rulers themselves until Chamberlain tore them apart.

  31. TARK

    “The sense that they’re manoeuvring to deny Lab an OM so as to support a minority Lab govt contains far too many variables and unknowns to be considered a platform for strategy.”

    Or, alternatively, the non-sense that …… I think we are in agreement on that.

    The simple arithmetic, in any democratic political system – especially one so hugely unbalanced between the 4 political systems as the UK -, means that a “regionalist” party can never do more than get as many MPs as it can, then play the cards that are dealt to all the players to best advantage.

    The SNP have said what their preferred outcome would be, and the key aspects of policy they would hope to see as a result. Stewart Hosie was quite clear on that last night, as well as the possibilities that might result from a hung Parliament where Labour could form the Government, if it could attract sufficient votes from other parties.

  32. PHIL HAINES
    Given the way the polls are going, a goal of denying Labour an outright majority may end up with the Conservatives having enough seats on their own to be able to form a viable minority or even majority government.

    Isn’t that just the beauty of the plurality system? Should one vote for a candidate/party one supports or another perceived as arguably less awful than some other party?

  33. @Tark

    If by manoeuvring you mean trying to get their MPs elected then isn’t that rather the point.

    The SNP is being very upfront about who they will deal with and what their negotiating position will be – unlike other parties. Therefore there will be no recriminations or surprises after the vote as happened with the Lib Dems.

    The SNP has a long term goal of independence and a short term goal of ‘more powers for Hollywood’. Polls consistently show high levels of support for Devo-max so in this case SNP are definitely speaking for the majority of Scots.

  34. PHIL HAINES

    PS re the plurality system.

    Should it come to pass that Con “win”, Lab should reflect that it was their own previous leader who promised an AV referendum yet their current one was unable or unwilling to commit his party to a YES vote on it, which would likely have guaranteed Lab most of the 2nd or subsequent preferences of SNP/PC/Green voters.

    Equally, of course, should Con “lose”, perhaps their high command will live to regret their opposition to AV, which would have given them many UKIP voters’ 2nd or subsequent preferences.

  35. I believe the point of a General Election is that all parties “manoeuvre” to get as many of their candidates elected as possible….

  36. Barbazenzero

    Re AV/Plurality

    Decisions taken by political parties for short-term gain often work against their longer term interests.

    Nothing should surprise us about the basic political incompetence of politicians and their “strategists”!

  37. OLDNAT
    Nothing should surprise us about the basic political incompetence of politicians and their “strategists”!

    Quite so.

    Apart from AW’s studious impartiality, that’s probably the only thing that a real majority of those posting on these threads might agree upon.

  38. Given the above speculation,particularly over the lack of viable coalition options for both main parties,what is the likelyhood we have to do it all again in a couple of months of the GE,this after all could have happened in 2010.
    Would Labour really work with the SNP ? Could the tories find any partners with enough seats ? Any option looks either unlikely and or very unpopular.
    If the SNP were to take 40-50 seats in Scotland,it makes you wonder how their views can be ignored,even if they cannot be part of a coaltion,I think a constitutional crisis could be looming
    So I don’t think it beyond the bounds of possibility we are at the ballot box twice in 2015.

  39. I have been plotting the time-weighted average of YouGov polls using the raw data on the tables since late January and with last night’s 33-31, the Tories are ahead by more than a point for the first time

    Con 33.8%
    Lab 32.5%
    LibDem 7.7%
    UKIP 14.6%
    Green 6.1%
    Other 5.4%
    Lead 1.3% Con

    Strikingly it mainly seems to be driven by a small shift from Labour to the Lib Dems, but clearly too early to tell if that is anything other than an MOE artefact.

    https://twitter.com/johnrvpg/status/575608710174740482

  40. When people talk about swing back, have there been any studies about the degree of swing back being different in different seats?

    I was thinking about that Lib Dem poll from yesterday- Hornsey&Wood Green. Ashcroft had that at 43% Lab, 30% LD back in September. Basically a no hoper for the Lib Dems you would think, they should be using their resources elsewhere.

    Yet they are still funding polls in that seat at least, and it seems clear they are fighting hard there. Why? As they said when the Sheffield Hallam polls were released, these polls showing Labour in the lead actually help them. They just have to explain to conservative voters in those seats that a vote for Conservative is a vote for Miliband, and many of them lend their vote to the Lib Dems.

    And looking at today’s Yougov, Conservative voters are far more likely than Labour voters to give Clegg good ratings. Labour voters are more resistant to Mr Clegg’s charms. For probably obvious reasons.

    But if this plays out like this, we could see Tory voters moving to Lib Dem over the next few weeks as Lib Dems get this message out. Labour voters may be more reluctant to move to the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out, feeling betrayed last time.

    Net effect will be Conservative vote share declines, Lib Dems improves, Labour probably static. But the outcome if it works will be the inverse, less Labour wins in LD/Lab marginals, more LD seats, and more Tory gains in LD/Tory marginals.

  41. @couper2802

    ”45% of Scots voted SNP in 2011 over 50 % of Scots are currently considering voting SNP in the GE. So when you say that the SNP should be shut out of the democratic process you shut out half of Scots.

    This time last year I was a Labour Party member, since the referendum I have become more convinced that independence is the only option for Scotland. The people that protest that they want to keep ‘their country’ together are driving people away,”

    Couper the SNP is NOT being ‘shut out’ of the democratic process. The SNP will have many of its candidates elected to parliament. If they end up being shut out of anything it will be the government of the United Kingdom. No other party is obliged to do a deal with the SNP if they find them unacceptable for one reason or another. By your logic the SNP is potentially ‘shutting out’ the Conservatives from the democratic process by refusing to ever deal with them.

    I fail to understand your reasoning that people – like me – who talk of ‘keeping our country together’ are somehow off-putting. Off-putting to who? To people like yourself that have already decided that their country is Scotland not Britain presumably. That’s fine, that’s your choice, I respect that, but people like me talking about the threat posed to ‘our country’ by a separatist party is just the way it is going to stay. There are plenty people, north and south of the border, that feel this way. The Nationalist view that Scots’ only country is Scotland and that every single thing about Britain and being British is wrong is very alienating to many people too you know.

  42. It might be the case that more than one of the ‘big three’ are regionalist after May. No MPs in Northern Ireland, and no MPs in Scotland.

  43. MIBRI
    So I don’t think it beyond the bounds of possibility we are at the ballot box twice in 2015.

    Of course that’s possible, but even in the event of a minority government, unless both Lab & Con want a second election the FTPA Act 2011 will prevent either getting their way.

  44. TARK

    @”the scorched-earth health and education reforms of the last 5 years I”

    Was this written with your “historian” hat on, or your “political scientist” hat on?

    lol

  45. “Its the economy stupid” has been heavily disregarded by Labour’s fans on this site. However, as general improvement in “the pound in your pocket”, moves gradually forward, so will a Tory poll lead.
    All the blather about “no evidence of the Tories being largest party” and cobbling up left wing loose parliamentary associations in endless posts, will not prevent the polls improving for the blues, as financial cheer returns to the man on the Clapham omnibus.
    The kind of people who have not received much or any benefit from Mr Osborne are non-voters or occasional Labour voters anyway.

  46. Labour must be getting very worried.

    A Blair would have slotted the ball into the net ages ago.

  47. STATGEEK

    I’m an “Approval Rating” watcher, and am struck by the change in your splendid graph for Regional Government Approval.

    But the colour match with the key is not clear ?

  48. seriously, what is extraordinary about the latest yougov isn’t the tories’ vi. 33 on yougov for the tories is basically, give or take 1point, where they have been for the last 18 months..if you’d seen a yougov score for the tories of 33 at any point in the last 18 months you wouldn’t have expressed any surprise.

    BUT 31 for labour is extraordinary. What happened to the 35% strategy…the whole point of Ed was that he wasn’t as divisive as David and he could keep the left together!

    One tory bigwig said to a mate that he expected the tories to be on 36 on election day, and labour to be on 30…i thought it was poppycock, and I still don’t think this will happen. but the extent to which labour have fallen in the last year means I have no idea where the labour floor is. 30? 29?

  49. BARBAZENZERO

    I appreciate that,however I am talking in the event of nobody being able to come to an agreement,which I believe could be likely,given the variables.
    I am sure if the largest party went to the queen and said ,it is unworkable,surely their is provision to do it again

  50. Les Cunningham
    “Indeed, if Labour rejects a clear opportunity to govern with SNP support, and settles for another term in opposition, what percentage of Labour voters will feel so betrayed by Labour that they will vow never to vote Labour again?”

    Why on earth would Labour choose another period in Opposition when they could be in Government ?

    The whole point of being an MP is to see the party of which you belong, become the Government of the day.

    If that means a minority government or a coalition government, so be it. I would be astonished if any party would choose Opposition over Government.

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