Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. This follows on from a four point Conservative lead in yesterday’s YouGov poll and a one point Tory lead in their Sunday Times poll at the weekend.

Earlier on today there was also a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline Westminster voting intentions in Wales stand at CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, PC 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% – Roger Scully’ analysis of it is over on his Elections in Wales blog here.


524 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. 7th?

    Top-line parties total 93%. Hmm.

    @Anthony

    Follow-up on that Yougov poll that was ‘strange’ – https://twitter.com/Scotsfox/status/575425299875262464/photo/1

  2. LD to lose all of their seats in Wales.

    Ouch.

  3. Statgeek

    Plaid at 10% was missing?

  4. Narrow Con lead the new Polldrums?

  5. Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%.
    _______

    Quite low VI for both Labour and the Tories and I’m thinking we might see Labour drop below 30% before the end of the week.

  6. Ooh, the Tories have finally broken the three-poll-lead barrier! Exciting times.

    Since we finally have movement I’ll try to do a mini-churn analysis once tomorrow’s crossbreaks are out to see where it’s coming from- a superficial look at the individual polls with high Labour leads hasn’t yielded an obvious pattern, so I’m going to need to get the averages.

  7. Blech. The individual polls with high Tory leads.

  8. Labour really don’t have the policies to differentiate themselves. Cameron’s move to place a neutral health secretary was a good one.

    Although again the maths to form a government are tricky. Could be a pre 2011 Holyrood situation of a minority government which has to lobby the opposition and smaller parties to get things passed.

    Which I don’t think is as ungovernable as some might think.

  9. I still expect a Labour-led government, but this evening up (and even a Tory lead?!) does mean that a Labour majority government is less likely. The crucial thing during the campaign will be a Tory to UKIP swing, I think, as UKIP will get a big chance to win over right-wing Tories.

  10. @Spearmint

    I have been looking forward to your churn analysis, as it will hopefully dovetail with my own :-)

  11. I expect a 4 point Tory lead by GE day, possibly even higher.

  12. Despite more YG polls showing Tories ahead recently, everything consistent with 33-33 as well as 34-33, so not sure whether we are level pegging or we have a small Tory lead.

    Tories will not be able to develop a clear lead unless UKIP falls below 14-15% or Labour move towards 30% or both.

    Let’s see what happens over next few polls – also think the multi-party debates will favour Farage, so still all to play for, as I still think he could take a few more points from the Tories if he can build momentum.

    I’m Gerald best guess though is that the economy is strong enough and EM bad enough that polls will continue recent drift to the Tories over next 2 months.

  13. @Spearmint

    Wait until the level poll tomorrow and the big Lab lead one on Thursday ;).

  14. Three in a row. Cons will be delighted with this, Lab less so! This is going to end in tears for Lab, I fear, I can now see DC getting so close to a majority, if it is a few seats short, it will not matter. Are Labour prepared to do a Bob Hawke scenario? Interesting times!

  15. I predict a 5 point Tory lead for the general election, translating to just over 300 seats and a likely continuation of the Coalition with additional DUP support.

    Just wait until May, wait and see. My faith in Mayan Crossover theory will prove well-founded.

  16. Regarding my own analysis, Labour need a 34+ soon to stop their charts heading south……

  17. @ omnishambles
    I am no statistician, like others on here, but I think you are spot on at 37 to 32. Which will leave DC a few seats short, but irrelevant in who will be running the country. Unless Labour do something unheard of and now ditch their leader.

  18. To work out the GE result now, you don’t need a statistician, you need a medium.

  19. Aw
    can you please remove the advert of Russell Brand. As a political website, anyone who advocates ” not voting” to express their will….please, I would rather have McDonalds!

  20. I think Fraser has it right,Labours policies are just not different enough to the
    Tories.Tory lite will just not cut it.Ed Balls has screwed this up in the same way
    he screwed up in 2007 with the election that never was .I seem to remember
    that he talked it up.EMs biggest mistake was not getting rid of him,he is quite
    toxic.

  21. Ed needs to start offering something and pretty damn quick.

  22. Plaid Cymru missing from the headline figures for Wales there. Oops.
    Also please please please can you include SNP in your headline voting figures for GB. They are often running neck and neck with Lib Dems and Greens so why not include them?

  23. Ann, does average voter even know who Balls is?

  24. @ pete

    “I expect a 4 point Tory lead by GE day, possibly even higher.”

    @ omnishambles

    “I predict a 5 point Tory lead for the general election, translating to just over 300 seats and a likely continuation of the Coalition with additional DUP support.”

    ———————-

    Thank you both for your stimulating and insightful analysis. It adds a great deal to the sum total of human knowledge.

  25. @CMJ
    “To work out the GE result now, you don’t need a statistician, you need a medium.”

    Or to have been there and back. I have just completed that mist unusual journey. It was 34-33 to Lab. Case closed ;)

  26. David in Ofxord

    1) the ‘odd’ spelling in your monicker is a touch grating :p

    2) Somebody suggested I install Bluhell Firewall to manage adverts. I have done so and it works like a dream so I’m blissfully unaware of Russell Brand and all the other irritating advertisers I used to get. What this does to @AW’s advertising revenue, I know not.

  27. @Ann in Wales
    Really? It seems to me there’s a huge difference between what Labour and the Tories are offering. There’s a distinction in almost every area of policy. There’s more than separates the Big 2 now than in the New Labour era, for example.

    @MOG
    No problem. It’s great to be appreciated.

  28. Guymonde

    “What this does to @AW’s advertising revenue, I know not.”

    If you find yourself moved to pre-moderation – you’ll know! :-)

  29. Yeah MOG every post in here is well analysed and insightful. Mine by the way is a fear not a want.

    Looks like something is moving to the Tories, no idea what and being their leader is a coward and hypocrite I’m slightly shocked.

    Maybe it really is the Ed factor and were turning more Presidential in the way we look at our parties?

  30. Aldo

    The weightings aren’t done for each region so the SNP VI hasn’t been properly weighted. Wait for a poll weighted to the Scottish population or take a rolling mean and hope all the weighting biases cancel with each other.

  31. Trend seems to be equality now, possibly a tiny Conservative lead soon if things carry on improving for them.

    Looks like Cons are shaving a little bit of support from Labour, but still low support for both. If there were a popular centrist 3rd party things could get very interesting (not that they are not without such a thing) but instead it looks like we are still heading for a bit of a mess. It just depends on how far ahead in seats one of the two main parties gets.

  32. Greens are on 6%? Is that solid or could 2/3% move to labour between now and May 7th?

  33. Pete

    Ahem! Not exactly a polling comment – except perhaps a poll of those in the lounge bar?

  34. @Pete

    According to an article I read in the FT today, only 40% of the Green vote is “certain to vote” for the Greens. Overall, half of voters are floating and not committed.

    Source:
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a8ed3ac-c748-11e4-9e34-00144feab7de.html#axzz3U1sx1NcR

  35. Alan

    “The weightings aren’t done for each region so the SNP VI hasn’t been properly weighted. ”

    Since Jan 5, the SNP identification (no one weights to VI !) has been properly weighted in the YG Scottish crossbreak.

    What we don’t know is whether the demographics and the ID of the British parties have been properly weighted.

    However, since the daily sample is so small, it makes little point to include them in the GB headline list – even though the significant variations in the Scottish sample are wholly buried when expressed as a rounded GB percentage.

  36. Sorry, I did not realise the ads were generated on my own Ipad, must have been my 18 year old who thinks Brand is it! However, I can see movement here and it will be disconcerting for Labour. A couple of weeks ago, I would have put money on a dead heat, now I can see DC getting 295 plus, so with the LD,s and Ni Unionists he wins. I still believe as the polls move, Labour just might choose to ditch their leader, simply because others around him are desperate for power. We will see, but the fact that Justine came out fighting today may not be against the government!

  37. Pete

    One post you ask “Do the public know who the shadow chancellor is” the next you worry the public worry too much about the leaders.

    If they don’t know Mr. Balls, who else do they have left to judge but Mr. Milliband. I think you answered your own question there.

  38. Oldnat

    Yeah, I meant weighing by demographics which aren’t weighted by region but for the poll as a whole. (As I understand it)

    By weighting to SNP ID, clearly that should be properly weighted to region (unless we get some silly bugger in Kent claiming SNP ID with a UKIP VI).

  39. True OldNat, I’d edit but we can’t? Least on mine we don’t seem able to.

  40. DAVE. I reckon that it is possible Lib, Lab & Con will be looking for new leaders after the election!

  41. Ashcroft has Conservative and Labour on firm at around 62% to 60%, UKIP around 6)% or high 50’s, while LD and Green are sometimes in low 5os to high 40s.

    My biggest concern remains the weighting being given to various parties. Populos, for example, had 31.1% of their respodents who voted LD in 2010 state they would vote that way in 2015, but they upweighted that to 36.3%

    YouGov, yesterday downeweighted LD from 31.5% to 27.9%.

    I think LD are between 20% to 25%, so both are overating LD.

    And then I do not see how any pollster can state, with a straight face, that only 5% of 18-24 year olds will vote Green. but that is what Populos does.

    And do not get me started with ICM, who I think should be banned from publishing their polls, given what they are doing.

  42. Pete
    “Maybe it really is the Ed factor and were turning more Presidential in the way we look at our parties?”

    I think this has been the case since at least 1964, when Alec Douglas-Home was famously caricatured by Gerald Scarfe as looking like a skull and was up against the bluff Northerner Harold Wilson. I remember that a lot of people were worried about it being a Presidential type election because of television.

  43. So I am getting no movement in Conservative this week after reporting a .4% crossover on Sunday for the first week of March.

    What I do see is a 1.2% jump in “Other”, which translates into a further rise in SNP support and a slump in Labour support in Scotland.

    So what did Labour say at their spring conference that upset the average Scottish voter?

    Other than that I have UKIP heading back to where they were at the beginning of February and LD and Green only .6% apart.

  44. Given that it’s probable (as things seem to be standing now) that there’ll be a Con to Lab swing on May 7 (even if Con vote share is higher than Lab, which is by no means a foregone conclusion), and a big increase in SNP MPs, it seems to me the composition of the next government will mainly turn on the relative losses of the LDs to the Cons and to Lab and the eventual number of LD MPs.

    Thank you.

  45. Andy Shadrack

    What I do see is a 1.2% jump in “Other”, which translates into a further rise in SNP support and a slump in Labour support in Scotland.

    Not necessarily. The tables should be up in 5 and a half hours!

    So what did Labour say at their spring conference that upset the average Scottish voter?

    Again, there is no evidence that anyone paid attention to the conference (other than the unfortunate comments of a retiring dinosaur). If there has been any effect on the Scottish vote, then it might be more related to the hysterical response in certain quarters to “Scotland ruling England”.

  46. Omnishambles,
    I appreciate your point and obviously there are differences to those who
    consider these things carefully,but there is just not enough obvious difference.
    Pete B,
    Unfortunately Sir Alec did look like a skull,but he ran Wilson very close for all
    that.

  47. Oh yes and Conservative and Labour are back down to 64% combined.

    Still think when these two get going they will simply remind people why they intened to vote for someone other than Conservative and Labour :)

  48. Despite some very enthusiastic predictions for Conservative support at 5 percent plus over Labour and at 37 percent plus overall, the numbers simply do not point to that without a massive implosion in the English Labour vote.

    Labour has held reasonably firm at 30-33 over the last six months and that is post their meltdown in Scotland. Given that this level of support is higher than received in 2010, especially in England, no indications of implosion are evident so far.

    Conversely, the Conservative have also been polling in the same range of support and that is 3-4 points below their 2010 levels.

    With the collapse of the LD vote in southern England, the Conservatives should be doing better but the growth of UKIP and Greens is hoovering up the former LD vote and eating into Conservative majorities.

    It is more likely we are going to see a close race between Labour and Conservative in the English seats and that does not bode well for Mr. Cameron staying in Number 10.

  49. NORBOLD
    “Have you put a bet on Ed Miliband not being Labour Party leader at the GE….”

    Likewise for James Landale on his interview with the Milibands, which had all the substance and much of the style of a televisual Hello article. I sat amazed at his ability to conduct a journalistic discussion with a man of ideas and from one of the most interesting families in 21st C Britain in his home and to come up with the sole response “I don’t care” concerning press attacks on the leader of the opposition during and prior to a general election, and with no revelation of his policies or the thinking behind them or insights into the making of the man. Either Langdale or his editor should be sued for false labelling,shoddy goods and keeping their thumb on the scales.

  50. You got it Jim Jam :-)

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