Lord Ashcroft put another batch of marginal seat polls out earlier on today. He is gradually moving on up the Lab-v-Con target list, and today’s batch of seats covered the twelve Con-v-Lab marginals with majorities between 4.8% and 7.1%. These are seats that would fall to Labour if they were about equal with the Tories in the national polls, so given the variation between the swing in different constituencies we are getting to the point were we should start seeing some seats with the Tories ahead, and indeed we do – Ashcroft found the Conservatives ahead in three seats (Blackpool North, Kingswood and Loughborough).

The average swing across the twelve seats polled was 4.5% from Con to Lab – the equivalent of a two point Labour lead in the national polls. The average Labour lead in the national polls at the time the fieldwork was done was also two points, so once again the Ashcroft polling is suggesting that in Con-v-Lab marginals the swing is very much in line with national polling.

At an individual constituency level there is more variation. The lowest swings in this batch of seats were the three Tory holds mentioned earlier, which had swings of only 1.5% and 2% from Con to Lab. The biggest swings were in Erewash, Bury North, Cannock Chase, Keighley and Croydon Central, with swings between 6% and 7%. Two of those seats are ones where the first time Conservative incumbent is standing down, another is in London, where local and European elections suggest Labour are doing particularly well.

Full details of the Ashcroft polls are all on his site here.

459 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft marginal polling”

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  1. They looked like the headline figures. I might well have used the wrong ones.

  2. Jim Jam

    Oh yes they would. Absolutely so.

  3. Further to the debate on splitting England up into regions, useful article over at the Beeb, giving a nice overview of how tricky it is and how struggles over the matter go back to Roman times.


    Particularly liked this quoting of Presscott:

    ‘Asked about his ideas for a region in the South West, the deputy prime minister lamented: “It always seemed to me that Cornwall hated Devon, they both hated Bristol and they all hated London”. ‘

  4. Oh hang on, Osborne hasn’t actually done the deal yet. Oops. But I think they will accept some sort of installment plan.

  5. Just had an e-mail from SNP HQ apologising for the delay in getting membership packs out to people and confirming that packs will be going out over the next two weeks.

    The reason for the delay……membership is now 64,000.
    Wonder what the leadership ballot will tell us about Labours Scottish membership.


  6. oops,.sorry, Prescott…

  7. New thread

  8. @Ewen Lightfoot

    “underneath a photo of Peter Walker MP it said “Pig Roast” in large type, with Worcester Conservative Association and other details in much smaller type. I suppose you had to see it to appreciate it !”

    I like it! Walker was a political heavyweight and a politician of some substance (he was the other half in the failed British bank, Slater Walker, that Private Eye used to lampoon as Slater Nazi!), but I never forgave him the botched local government reforms that he introduced when he was Local Government Minister in Heath’s Government (1970-74). In fairness, most were based on recommendations made in a Review commissioned by the previous Wilson Government, but I always associate Walker with the dismantling of my beloved Worcestershire and its shoe-horning into a ghastly entity called Herefordshire and Worcestershire.

    Common sense prevailed many years later. Worcestershire returned as a county, but we lost some great old parts of the Black Country, gone forever to the West Midlands authority. Whither now Old Hill, Dudley, Stourbridge and Halesowen; you’re sorely missed. Once watched Worcestershire play at the old Dudley Cricket ground in the early 70s. Many years later the ground subsided into a giant crater caused by the honeycomb of disused limestone mines that lay underneath and Dudley Cricket Club went with it, never to reform. The old Dudley Football Ground club suffered a similar fate.

    For the cricket afficianados amongst us (TOH), Tom Graveney got a very nice half century against Warwickshire in that John Players League match at Dudley in front of a 12,000 crowd!

  9. Allan Christie, no, my post wasn’t at aimed at you or anyone here. Apologies if I gave the impression that it was.

    I had the media in mind really.

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