The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.

As with the ComRes poll a week ago it shows UKIP with a solid lead. While there will always be some underlying churn, the obvious implication of the changes since the start of October is that the Labour vote has been significantly squeezed, and is breaking heavily in UKIP’s favour.

376 Responses to “Survation poll in Rochester has UKIP lead growing to 15 points”

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  1. I didn’t say anything about Ed Miliband.

    I said the rise of SNP and UKIP mirrored the rise of other nationalist parties across Europe.

  2. NICKP

    I didn’t say anything about Ed Miliband.
    I said the rise of SNP and UKIP mirrored the rise of other nationalist parties across Europe”

    Okay so another way to look at it is the demise of Labour in Scotland mirrors that of the BNP across the UK?

    Yeah I see how narratives can be used.

  3. RAF

    A further thought re EdM and his image is investigating Aardman’s allegiances and discussing a “Wallace” cameo with them for charity or even a PPB. Wallace is hardly an unpopular figure, and sharing the joke could be the best way of exploiting the jibe.

  4. I think the tone of this thread took on a nasty twist when I posted an article from the Metro depicting EM handing out 2p to a Beggar.

    It was extremely silly of me to do so, what with the polls so volatile at the moment and everything to play for I should had known better and the serious implications it could have on the national VI

  5. @Anybody

    I’ve been out of action for a few days. Have we discussed the S Yorks PCC thing anywhere?


    Not much discussion of that anywhere in the media for obvious reasons!

  7. In Scotland the SNP were effectively propped up by the Tories as a minority administration 2007 to 2011. Why does Labour not try to remind voters of that – as well as recalling the fact the door was opened for Thatcher by the SNP voting down the Callaghan Government in March 1979?

  8. @Postage included

    I think thePCC election can be boiled down to to:

    A waste of time

  9. @ Graham

    Surely people should vote on today’s issues, not 36 year old events?

  10. oldnat from the early hours

    …….”You sound like a nasty little racist with that attitude.”

    ….was the pick of an awful bunch of utterly pointless squabbling and insults.

    Perhaps earlier bedtimes for some would be a good idea?

    That stuff is not what I visit this site for and yet iit’s mpossible to avoid and seemingly getting worse.

  11. @Catmanjeff,

    The minority SNP administration was barely 3 years ago. Moreover, much is still made by the SNP of the damage done to Scotland by Thatcher – I see nothing wrong with reminding Scottish voters how the nationalists – by their own actions – helped to bring it about. I was very surprised Darling failed to use this material in the second debate.

  12. I saw Marr this morning before taking my morning run through the winding lanes of Worcestershire, preparing myself for the afternoon’s football extravaganza. Interesting interviews with Salmond and Murphy I thought. Firstly, who’d have guessed it; Salmond the old socialist firebrand now turned social democrat, desperate, I think, to rejoin the Westminster circus for a third time! Again, he peddled the line that Labour’s problems in Scotland were mainly due to them conniving with the Tories during the Independence Referendum campaign. According to Salmond, so despised are the Tories north of the border that any association is politically toxic. If so, what on earth does that say about the Tories, now revelling in Labour’s Scottish travails? What part of the United Kingdom remains where they are vaguely tolerated? Lower Piddlington by the Sea (average age 93) may remain a stronghold, I’m told. :-)

    I thought Murphy, right at the end of the interview, made a key point, and one I thought Marr should have raised with Salmond. Little over 6 weeks ago, Murphy pointed out, there was a two horse race in which one side, the pro Independence Yes camp, was beaten by a country mile with a 10% plus winning margin for the No side. It wasn’t even close, yet the losing side is now parading around the winners enclosure, embarking on endless laps of honour. It’s quite extraordinary really, isn’t it, when you come to think about it?

    The Unionist parties are letting the SNP get in far too many free hits and all sorts of canards are going unchallenged. The Tories, now very nearly defunct in Scotland, probably no longer care, but Labour and the Lib Dems need to start trading some proper blows now.

  13. @Paul A
    By “Obvious reasons” you mean “because not terrible news for Labour” I’d guess. I wonder if the press will take the same “dog bites man – not news” line if the Tories win Rochester&Strood?

    The PCC elections are a stupid idea and should be scrapped – that’s my consistent position. While they’re there, though, they should be treated seriously. The LD position on this byelection was disingenuous and self serving – they just used a handy excuse to opt out and avoid abbject humiliation. But however you feel about it the result can be interesting – you prefer to ignore it.

  14. @All
    A useful word from Schottenfreude® in the recent Private Eye:


    meaning “telling opinion pollsters that you will vote one way then voting another” (literallyit means “ballot-paper dance”).

    I have a feeling that the coming election is going to prove the neccesity of this word. I do wish it was a bit shorter though!

  15. @Old Nat

    Your post last night about the Nixon-Kennedy debate in 1960 (how it showed that physical appearance and image mattered more than content) as interesting enough to me to look it up, so thanks for that.

    It was, however, nonsense.

    Here is a rebuttal


    a link to the original research over 25 years ago is included in the piece.

    Of course I wouldn’t point this out to other posters, but you are so particular about “evidence” that I was sure you would want to see some. Think of this as a mark of respect.

    Surely people should vote on today’s issues, not 36 year old events?

    Yes, but anyone looking at the 1979 should at least make some attempt to understand what was going on at the time.

    1st, Callaghan could have brought both SNP and the [old] Liberal Party onside by fighting “the dead voted No” rule more vigorously and conceding the introduction of FoI. He missed other opportunities to get NI parties onside too.

    2nd, it would have postponed Thatcher’s accession by five months at the most.

    Why are only the SNP worthy of criticism in the Labour canon?

    The minority SNP administration was barely 3 years ago.

    Why did Lord McC not even try to soldier on with a Lab/LD coalition that would only have been 3 short of a majority?

    With a non-voting Con PO, he would have had 64 onside if he could have negotiated tacit support from the Scottish Greens; enough to draw a motion of No Confidence in him and hence remain FM.

  17. @Graham

    The problem with, trying to use Tory support in the previous parliament is that the SNP administration did rather well, so well they were elected at the next SGE with a majority.

    The problem with ’79 is it is countered by ‘It was a Labour amendment that denied us a parliament in ’79’

  18. MR. N

    Thanks-well if thats really it-no change of leader will help.

  19. @Colin

    The headline in the Scotland on Sunday today was Murphy ‘Labour is for the Prosperous and the Poor’ sums up why people are so disillusioned with Scottish Labour. The Labour movement is not for the rich and powerful – they have plenty of power and representation. It was a mass movement where co-operation and solidarity give the workers and ordinary people a voice and influence.

    Scottish Labour intend under Murphy to move to the right of the SNP – they have given up on their socialist and nationalist wings and intend to go after Tory voters. And to get to the right of the SNP you have to go fairly far right. SNP voters in Angus, Perth countryside are affluent and very middleclass.

    I am not saying LiS should go full Neil Findlay but either he or Sarah would be far better choices

  20. @ Statgeek

    Enormous thanks.

    It really shows the daftness of the BBC’s claim that the gap closed because of drops in LD support this year, rather than increases in Green support.

  21. Lots of comments about police cautions much earlier in this thread. I didn’t respond because I’ve been away overnight with Mrs A for a stay in a Manor House hotel for her birthday.

    It’s true that cautions are sometimes used for domestic violence and sexual offence cases. I’d say two things to that, the first is that there may well be circumstances where such cautions are the wholly appropriate response. I have twice given cautions for indecent image offences, for example, once when the images were of older teenagers and of relatively low seriousness, and once when a father took photographs at his home address, despite the fact that his daughter had a habit of “flashing” the camera (we were satisfied there was no sexual motive, but he was aware of what she was doing, but was so used to it he didn’t think to halt the taking of the photograph). I can also imagine circumstances where cautions might be used for hands-on offences where the offenders were young or had learning disabilities (I understand many if not all of the identified “rape” cautions come into these categories, although it seems a bit extreme).

    The second is that, even if it is felt that certain categories of offences should never result in cautions, it is pretty easy to change the rules to make that a strict requirement. There’s no need to abandon the (generally very successful) cautioning scheme.

    There is one other factor at play. Although Cautions are only supposed to be administered when there is evidence to charge, this is frequently disregarded by police and CPS and cautions are often administered in cases (for example where the offender admits what they did but the victim won’t support a prosecution) where the straight choice is “Caution or Nothing”. Cautions bring with them a range of benefits. They trigger things like sex offender registration, or statutory investigation of an offender’s children. They also allow higher sentences to be passed for subsequent offending. All at very little cost in terms of time and resources.

    If cautions are abandoned, it is unlikely to lead to significantly more prosecutions. There will simply be more “No Further Actions” and police resources will be further diverted from “solvable” cases into tail-chasing to get the various statements and documents necessary for a potential prosecution.

    Net effect – less justice, not more.

  22. @Couper
    The point is that the SNP are perfectly content to work with the Tories when it suits them. To condemn Labour for doing likewise is pure hypocrisy – and Darling should have said so.

    It’s pure supposition to suggest that Thatcher’s election was inevitable in 79. As it was, Labour managed a fair recovery from the Winter of Discontent with the Tory lead dropping from 20% to 7%.A few more weeks or months – putting more distance between polling day and the industrial strife – could well have cut the margin to 2 or 3% and so denied Thatcher a majority.

  23. GRAHAM

    I’m not a member of any political party, but to suggest that compromises over things like the odd budget motion, also offered to Lab, compare in any way with the Lab, Con & LD love-in during the referendum beggars belief. In any event, it could hardly have been Darling who made the point during the debates since he was representing all 3 of those parties plus other groups at the time, whilst pretending that LFI did not exist.

    Re 1979, had Callaghan made any one of a number of possible compromises with other parties he would have lasted until October. I suspect that the reason he made none was the intransigence of his own back-benchers. Had he been able to limp on there is little reason to suppose the GE would have worked out differently because his “Lucky Jim” moniker was already long past its sell by date.

  24. There are a lot of people who do not know what they are talking about here. Medway has had a MASSIVE influx of Eastern European immigration. We had the Albanians and Kosovans in the late nineties and we are now having all the Polish, Romanian, Lithuanian etc and we’re sick of it. Half of them do not work, none of them work high-skilled jobs and a lot of them have kids. My old primary school hardly has any English pupils there- none passed the 11+ a few years ago (when I attended in the nineties 33% passed the 11+).

    The area has become a complete ghetto due to immigration and we’re fed up with it. Cameron doesn’t have the bulls to sort it out. We need Farage/Hannan.

  25. @Phil Haines

    “The emphasis on giving a proper voice to the English regions will allow Labour to tap into the anti Westminster/London mood prevalent across the rest of England.”

    NO. Not English regions- England. Don’t try and dilute English opinion by giving regions a say, when England as a country should be given a say!

    I am surprised that AW lets you get away with that diatribe. Try another site.

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