This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% – as with Friday’s YouGov/Sun poll and the Opinium/Observer poll Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck. Note that the poll was conducted on Thursday night and Friday daytime, so most of it will be before David Cameron’s statement on EU funding.

In a referendum on the EU 41% of people would vote to stay in, 40% would vote to leave. The small lead to stay in is pretty typical of YouGov’s recent polling on EU membership. David Cameron is most trusted to get the best deal for Britain from the EU – Cameron is on 26%, ahead of Nigel Farage on 15% and Ed Miliband on 12%. It’s probably a case of least bad, rather than a positive endorsement though as asked directly about Cameron’s handling of our relationship with the EU only 30% think he is doing well, 55% badly.

64% support the principle of putting limits on immigration from the EU, but they are more divided when faced with potential obstacles. If limiting EU immigration meant breaking EU law 36% think that the government should limit immigration anyway and break the law, 37% think they should not (made up of 22% of people who support EU immigration and 15% who oppose it but think the government needs to follow the rules). If limiting EU immigration was only possible through leaving the EU 41% think Britain should leave, 33% think we should not (made up of 21% who support EU immigration and 12% who oppose it, but would accept it if the alternative was leaving the EU).

379 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 16, GRN 6”

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  1. I wouldn’t really expect him to be that popular in Southall or Leicester.

  2. RogerH

    I suspect you are right. It would be interesting to see mapping of areas most fearing immigration against the actuality in their locality.

    Does such exist?

  3. Come on boys and girls, it isn’t surprising that farage is most popular in places of fewest immigrants because immigrants don’t like him very much. so where there are more immigrants more people don’t like him.

    i read somewhere that white londoners were just as likely to vote ukip as anywhere else, it’s just that london has a more ethnically diverse population, therefore a much lower ukip vote than anywhere else.

  4. So…

    what have I missed?

  5. @Nick P

    AC’s responses to Pressman.


    Farage’s hotspots in Essex and Kent are poor areas that have seen the biggest white flight from deprived outer London the past 10 years, and certainly have experienced immigration. A great deal coming from boroughs such as Lewisham, Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Greenwich, Bexley etc. The population stats and census bear this out.

  7. @ Carfrew – was engaged on something else when you kindly explained why Labour might not want to come out with the things that I (and I think Guymonde) would like. I can see the logic in what you say, and that may well explain their behaviour.

    Yet despite longest suicide notes in history etc I do think they should be a bit bolder. Housing is a case in point. If the state builds housing, at least one of the uncertainties about whether it can be built is dealt with. Certainly there will be complaints about spending money we haven’t got etc but the state can borrow at very low interest rates and it should get money back through rents etc. Why be so pusillanimous? And if you are feeling so timid why not steal from UKIP the idea of cancelling HS2? There’s a few billion to spend for a start.

  8. Exciting YouGov in 5 minutes. Probably Cons in the lead

  9. the clue is in the term “white flight”…the places they fled from are where the immigrants are. These places do not vote ukip. so it isn’t that surprising that the places to which the flight takes place are a) more ukip friendly and b) relatively less inhabited by recent immigrants than the places which the whites “fled” from.

  10. It’s nit YouGov it’s Comtes and suprise suprise the parties are even again – @MSmithsonPB: LAB down 5 UKIP up 4 in new ComRes phone poll for Indy
    CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4=

  11. Can’t see anything exciting here:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories + Labour tying again, 5th poll in a row. CON 32%, LAB 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 8%.

  12. CANDY
    Earlier on the thread you repeated the claim that the East of England was one of the poorest areas in the UK. I found that surprising as I had not heard that before. I checked on the ONS and found data from 2012 showing Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI).
    The east region is the third wealthiest in Uk after London and the South East.

  13. Another tie… 5 in a row if you don’t count Populus!

    I think the Tories would have been hoping for a bit more of an EU budget bounce to be honest. But these ties started before that story broke so perhaps there is also some swing-back in play… intriguing.

    Six months or so out from the election and everything from a narrow CON majority to a 50-odd seat LAB majority is still conceivable!

  14. @Peter Crawford

    I mentioned that a while ago – it’s a quirk of statistics of course areas with lots of immigrants are not going to have as many people supporting an anti-immigration party.

  15. Well, I think we can conclude Labour and the Tories are level pegging!

  16. @ Jack Sheldon,

    It’s really swing-away, though. Tory VI is exactly where it’s been for the past 3 years, it’s just that Labour is collapsing.

  17. What happened to the 35% strategy it has gone horribly wrong.

  18. UKIP closing in on the main two parties in most polls now.

  19. RAF
    @Nick P

    “AC’s responses to Pressman”

    We both have a great understanding of each other. He delivers the plan and I explain the plan.

  20. Agreement on UKIP too, one notes. One would expect a Con lift purely on ‘there’s no such thing as bad publicity’ what with charging joggers and all. In contrast hardly any noise from Labour on anything much, but that’s the strategy, I am sure.

  21. Labour are so quiet at the moment. Is it deliberate??!

  22. ANDY JS

    “UKIP closing in on the main two parties in most polls now”

    If Cameron pays the £1.7 billion to the EU then everything from the Isles of Scilly to the Scottish border will have a horrible purple haze on it come the morning of 8th May 2015.

  23. I was slightly surprised to hear John prescott expressing concern for the PM’s safety. After all, a straight left might have dealt with the assault better, but a neat sidestep was equally pugilistically effective.

  24. New thread

  25. What the polls seem to show is a confused and disappointed electorate and no real change at all in Tory VI.

    The disappointment seems to largely be with Labour and their votes therefore heading mostly to Green, SNP and UKIP.

    The question is whether that will stick and my guess would be not.

    As always answering a polling question is very different to the rather more serious decision to be made about a future government: I don’t detect any real appetite for electing a Conservative government with an overall majority – or a repeat of this coalition.

    Having said that I can’t say I am that impressed with EM and really dislike his finger-jabbing and raised voice stuff. As someone mentioned before “cool” is better – especially when linked with cutting analysis.

    Both are missing in my view.

  26. John B @ 5.51 pm:

    You have a cheek, and seem proud of being ignorant.

    Why castigate the two of us who gave you reasonable rejoinders last night when you put up a message about Copeland.

    You claimed a speaker from Copeland in a Radio 4 discussion, Jamie Reed, should not have been talking about Labour opinions in Scotland on which he had no knowledge, at the same time telling us that you didn`t even know where the constituency was.

    Neither did you know that Jamie Reed was its MP, nor notice this fact from the R4 introduction.

    Evidently you are unaware that Copeland has much in common with many constituencies in central Scotland – run-down, poor communications, over-dependence on one or two industries. Which means that its electorate will benefit from a strong Labour voice coming from Scotland MPs.

    Moreover, Copeland has one of the finest Georgian towns in the UK. But for this not being widely known, I blame the BBC and other metropolitan media for giving poor coverage to peripheral UK.

    I agree with you on housing, and Lab have already declared its hand in a pledge to build 200,000 a year. @CARFREW has reasoned the arguments for housing as a key stabiliser and economic generator in previous debate.
    At the heart of current poll swings, though, immigration needs to be seen as dervied from the fact of our now being integrated into a EU wide labour and skills market, in which education and training are relatively equal and job opportunties/employment levels highly unequal throughout the system, and with UK middling on skills and top on jobs, hence a flow which optimises (by market forces, not policy or controls) the EU skills supply by channeling it to the UK where infrastructure and investment systems mean it can best be exploited.
    “Policy” in this area does not come in banner headlines, unless you are Farage and keep saying “Keep the buggers out”, or Cameron who keeps saying “We’ll leave unless the EU does something,, and give us more of our money back.”
    Ed’s beavering away at pre-distributive, structural changes in the labour and skiils market, needing a generation of change to match up with the EU wide labour market movement, is the answer. But even Campbell would have difficulty spinning that into an eye-catching headline.

  28. Cloudspotter – some parts of Eastern England are very wealthy, e.g. Cambridge. But the seaside towns that are going UKIP are poorer than average.

  29. A general point on political betting.

    People seem to put way to much emphasis on the predictive value of betting odds based on “the bookies very rarely get it wrong”.

    That’s true but odds are, to a large extent, opinion polls of how relatively lay people think the election will turn out.

    This will usually bear some relation to the end result but will also be affected by biases such as media reporting.

    It is also worth bearing in mind that the bookies will change the odds as the election approaches and the polls become more predictive.

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