The Sun has two interesting polls tonight. Firstly the daily YouGov poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. The fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, so was entirely after David Cameron speech, but largely before this morning’s newspaper coverage of it. Other companies like Ashcroft, ICM and MORI have popped out the occasional small Tory lead over the last year, but this is the first one that YouGov have shown since before the Omnishambles budget in 2012. Usual caveats apply, it is just one poll and conducted when David Cameron was getting some very good publicity, time will tell if it sticks.

Secondly the Sun have a Survation by-election poll in Heywood and Middleton. Voting intentions with changes from the 2010 result are CON 13%(-14), LAB 50%(+10), LDEM 4%(-19), UKIP 31%(+28) – it suggests a huge surge for UKIP into second place, but with a nineteen percent lead for Labour they should still hold the seat comfortably.

563 Responses to “YouGov Tory lead and Survation Heywood & Middleton poll”

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  1. It’s interesting seeing that the Opinium poll, which was I think done entirely after Cameron’s speech, showed business as usual. This bounce is unlikely to last but the Tories are clearly going to be rather happier, at least until they lose Clacton.

  2. Well, well, well. As ever.

    Tories were bound to win in R&S – of course they were.

    But wait! Here is some evidence!

    Yet another by election poll that shows a huge UKIP surge, and almost no damage whatsoever to the Lab vote, while in the other by election, Lab vote actually shot up by 10%.

    Yet still there are people telling us UKIP is a threat to Lab.

  3. Alec
    Indeed. Numerically, the true empty-headed floaters, seem to number some 4%?

  4. “They really seem to hate Cameron, though. I think they might prefer he loses so the Tories ”

    But they hate Ed Miliband even more who opposed even the modest power repatriation plans by Cameron. They are far more terrified of Miliband premiership than Tory voters are. Farage has often been sympathetic to Cameron as a person (esp. in EU parliament debates) as well as Tory backbenchers. He has been much harsher to Miliband than Cameron.

  5. Alec
    My last comment was about your 1037.


    To be fair they seem to hate most things, especially the present.

  7. “and almost no damage whatsoever to the Lab vote”

    No damage? They are down three percentage points and as a main opposition party who actually had parts of the current seat in 2005 and try to tell us they are not irrelevant in the South, surely they would have wanted to do much better than that?

  8. So ………..the You Gov is rubbish & temporary joy for Cons……..and the Survation is a stunning statement that Cons are doomed.

    Seems about par for the course here :-)

  9. Apparently poll in Sunday Herald tomorrow shows huge support for devo max.

    Labour, Tories and LDs have all now said that devo max is not on offer post referendum so it will be interesting to see how this apparent tension will play out in Scottish vi over the coming months.

  10. New thread

  11. Again it’s proved that the Conservatives can get a little bit ahead, enough to keep them in contention for some form of power, if not enough to win outright, however these little blips should be less likely once the promises that fuel them remain unchallenged.

    I do feel that labour may be less able to challenge such promises effectively.

  12. Why, oh why aren’t Labour strongly challenging this Conference Speech! Why oh why isn’t there a constant media blitz on how Labour is better and Cameron is wrong! Why is Ed so Carp and not doing anything RIGHT NOW!

    The same reason that no party ever seriously challenges each other’s party conferences. You don’t win an election campaign during a party conference. Why waste resources and political capital on it.

    This is also the same answer for why Ed hasn’t been on a permanent campaign footing. Comparatively, the Conservatives *have* been in a permanent campaign footing, for various reasons internal to the party.

  13. hireton – ”Labour, Tories and LDs have all now said that devo max is not on offer post referendum ”
    How can you say something like that when it is so blatantly untrue. The question is what effect it will have on England.

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