The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.

361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. Mike Smithson has tweeted that no lead at 6% in latest You Gov poll. Lab voters for Yes now up to 30%

  2. Time for a new thread Anthony? Little chance of anything other than your indyref poll being discussed for the next wee while.

    [Yeah, I know – meant to do it as soon as the poll broke but was mid way through the delicate process of returning the kids to bed without them waking up again! – AW]

  3. Kellner in the Sun “When I first saw the results, I wanted to make sure this movement was real. It is. “

  4. Careful Oldnat. I got moderated for using the S-word in a context which happened to coincide with my POV on a non-referendum thread. Although I agree that there is much to discuss post-debate, and I’ll go into more detail on the next suitable thread.

    In response to earlier comments about LD seat counts, as recently as four or five weeks ago I was giving higher-than-average predictions for the LD vote share compared to most UKPR members, but lower-than-average projections for their number of seats (can’t remember where the discussion was, but I think the number I gave was 31 or 32, and that most people had it a bit higher). However, a lot of my thinking was based on assumptions about what would happen with UKIP which were mundane then but clearly questionable now.

    If we were to have a similar discussion now, I suspect I would be at the opposite end of the spectrum. Outside of the seats they currently hold and a very small number of outliers such as Montgomeryshire and Watford, I’d be surprised if the LDs were even able to hold their currently projected share in the other 570 or so seats. That said, I don’t think UKIP will affect the swingback to the LDs as much in the seats where they are currently a factor, and therefore think that it’s plausible that they could retain 25-30 seats on a single digit % share (whereas as recently as July I thought they would be at 30-odd seats with 12-13%).

  5. Heh- the idiots on the politics account on twitter tweeted it as “53% yes” making Twitter go wild for just a second. He quickly corrected himself.

  6. Chrishornet

    It’s OK. I was quoting the boss of the boss there!

    YG indy polling

    Aug 4-7 : Y 39 N 61
    Aug 12-15 : Y 43 N 47
    Now : Y 47 N 53

  7. Sorry Clumsy fingers

    Aug 12-15 : Y 43 N 57

  8. Pressman – “Its the ‘one nation Tories’ who have got the country into the mess it is in today by deposing Maggie”

    From all the biographies and other accounts, they deposed her because she was going mad at the end.

    There were essentially two Maggies – the early reforming one (who incidentally changed the EEC into the EU with the Single European Act, introducing free movement of people, qualified majority voting etc etc, and all without a referendum!!) and there was the late Maggie of the poll tax – by that stage she didn’t seem to grasp she was clobbering her own voters with that tax.

    All PMs/Presidents seem to go either mad or get physically ill (Roosevelt) after the eight year mark. The job is too intense for mere humans to do it for too long.

    You could argue there were two Blairs too – the early pre-2003 one and the one that came after. There are even two Putins – the early one who stabalised Russia after Yeltsin and the current one who is bent on emulating Stalin.

    I think the Americans have the right idea limiting presidents to 8 years. I think the fixed parliament act should be amended to 4 year parliaments for the same reason (among others).

    And just to be mischievous I’ll point out that Alex Salmond is in his seventh year at Holyrood…

  9. @RIch

    Definitely when I said a while ago I’d put 20 quid on Yes I was laughed at. I think Yes will win. People are now making up their minds and there are direct No to Yes switchers. Yes is reaching critical mass plus Yes voters are informed and are informing others. For example a young mother in a scheme has her whole block organised for Yes. My sister who has never voted before explained the currency to an undecided cleaner at her work and converted the cleaner, the cleaner’s mother and neighbour to Yes.

    Yes is a mass movement, with so many grass roots groups.

    The BetterTogether campaign has been awful. They have just been effectively cautioned by the police for the inflamatory language they are using in the press. Their latest advert saying I love my children so I’m voting No Thanks. I can’t wait to read the book about that campaign.

    Labour have made a terrible mistake and alienated so many. Labour should think how different things could have been with Devo Max on the ballot paper, but they let their hatred of the SNP cloud their judgement.

  10. Couper2802

    ” I can’t wait to read the book about that campaign.”

    Ray McRobbie – the journalist who wrote the Murphy in Stonehaven story – is working on the book at the moment. Working title “Boo!”

  11. Couper2802 – “Labour should think how different things could have been with Devo Max on the ballot paper, but they let their hatred of the SNP cloud their judgement.”

    It wasn’t in Labour’s gift – Labour having been kicked out of office in 2010. What was on the ballot paper was at the discretion of the coalition.

    Do Scots really think Labour is still in govt then?

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