Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.

306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. Duplicate comment detected; it looks as though you’ve already said that!

  2. While we’re on the subject of that Scottish party I mentioned in the previous post, I see that Mr Smithson got far better odds on UKIP getting 2 or more seats in 2015 than I did. I’m only sitting on 3/1.

    New Panelbase poll.
    Yes 57% No 43%

    Hahahaha I’m just kidding – can you imagine?

    You shouldn’t do posts like that because it might raise the UK terror threat up a notch or two.

  4. @SoCalLiberal

    Good to hear from you, and glad you weren’t offended by my jocularity. We don’t generally spend our evenings invoking you, but hey, Jim Murphy was in distress.

    Sounds like you’re getting plenty of campaigning expirience these days. Btw, you aren’t by any chance working on a Ramsaela MacDonald themed cupcake? Can’t think of an election that has turned upon such a thing, but in your world it’s a possibility.

  5. @Alex

    I don’t think you have and there isn’t.

  6. Good for Smithson, got the thread better back on keel than I did with my EU news.
    Ahem, the wee Saltire at the top means it’s you who are going off piste.

    Just kidding. :-)

    But Anthony has put up a new thread anyway.

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