YouGov Welsh poll

ITV Wales has a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions out today, summarised by Roger Scully here. The various different VIs, with changes from December’s poll, are as follows:

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.


440 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Sorry about all the spelling mistakes a combination of iPhone and bad eyesight

  2. Could the anomaly re-unemployment be to some extent due the fact that the figures are, I believe, estimates with standard errors (although they are never given), not absolute measures. If one was on the high side of the true value and the other on the low, the ratio (percentage) would be distorted.

  3. I hope that the LibDem manifesto will showcase genuinely Liberal policies – if they try to be Tory-lite then the option for supporting a genuinely liberal-inclined party in the UK ceases to exist, which would be a shame in terms of offering people a full range of choices, whatever your personal politics.

    Of course they will have to do a far better job of show-casing those genuinely liberal policies that they have pushed through in collation, as well as explaining why they have allowed some notably illiberal measures to pass; that will be a very difficult challenge.

    I suspect most natural LibDem supporters will just want to get this election over with, get back into opposition, and be able to start re-building. It will be a long haul for sure, but I expect it to happen in due course as they occupy a distinct location on the political compass that would otherwise sit empty.

  4. Neil A

    I have a similar contempt for the Catholic Church’s morality, but I fundamentally disagree with your thoughts on the inevitability of desperate poverty in recessions.

    The fact that we now have hundreds of thousands of people reduced to needing good banks is the result of the recession AND a thirty year trend that has reduced the proportion of national wealth going to the very poorest.

    We had a viciously severe recession in 80-82. But we didn’t have half a million people relying on food banks to fill their bellies. But then, at that time we were at the end of a 40 year period where we thought society had a duty to minimise the differences between the wealth of the poorest and the richest. Since then, we have let the richest off the leash and they have pocketed a disproportionate share of the last 30 years’ growth. It is inevitable that, when a recession then comes along and reduces overall national wealth, the very poorest will sink into abject poverty.

  5. @Mrnameless

    “If they lose half their seats or more (as seems possible) or even a third (as seems probably) then there will be recriminations.”

    They look to be losing 8 or 9 of their 11 Scottish seats based on current polling trends. That’s in the region of mid single figures, down from 19% in 2010. Maybe that’s why the AV referendum defeat is a real defeat in their terms. They perhaps correctly guessed that being in government would reduce their popularity, and AV would give them the best chance of future success.

    They (when I refer to ‘they’, I mean the top ranking folk) perhaps banked on the AV referendum being the one thing that the Conservatives offered or conceded, and as long as they won that, the rest wouldn’t matter (party political stuff, that is).

  6. Roger Scully has now put up the tables for the YouGov poll for Wales:

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2014/02/Feb-2014.pdf

    There are some interesting facts from it. For example although UKIP support is fairly evenly spread as usual, they are clearly strongest in North Wales, parts of which would match the ‘C2 Retirees’ profile of areas they do strongly in in places like Kent.

    Equally OldNat’s query, about why a popular government isn’t popular regarding what it actually does, is I think partly explained by partisanship. A lot of non-Labour voters seem to disapprove automatically because of the way the question is phrased (Since the last Assembly election in 2011, do you think the Welsh Assembly government has done a good or bad job with each of the following?). But even among Labour supporters there isn’t that much enthusiasm: only +6 on the NHS, +10 on Schools, though +21 on “the Welsh economy”. Again you wonder about ‘infection’ from UK media and possibly a belief that the NAW actually have that much power to change things. Certainly the the percentages answering “Neither good nor bad” are high generally: 25%, 27% and 36% respectively.

    One odd little thing is that 17% of those voting PC for the NAW would vote UKIP for Europe if at all – a defection rate from the constituency vote almost as high as for Conservatives. Welsh Nationalist UKIP-ers may seem a contradiction in terms, but there seem quite a lot of them. This is nothing like as strong among those choosing PC for Westminster. It may suggest there are some people making that choice seeing PC and UKIP as the most effective non-Lab and non-Con opposition in those parliaments, but also shows how PC and SNP may be mopping up some potential UKIP votes and that may be partly why UKIP do so badly in Scotland.

  7. @Couper

    “Ironic given the past and new labour – If only the left had realised that all they had to do to get a left-wing government was to unite behind Labour.”

    None of the big three are ‘left-wing’.

  8. As the Catholic Church and Kiev have very little to do with UK polling, I thought somebody might like to answer my question which was ignored earlier.

    Can someone please explain to me how the advanced swingometer works? I have just put in all the necessary VI and the figure produced was a 60 seat Tory!! majority. I seriously doubted the accuracy of the tool but maybe somebody could solve the problem and explain how it works.

  9. Oh typical. I’m the only person for ages who actually comments on the Welsh poll and it goes straight to moderation.

  10. Hi Colin,

    “COLIN DAVIS

    Actually this is what he is saying.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10646421/David-Cameron-Why-the-Archbishop-of-Westminster-is-wrong-about-welfare.html

    As I said, I hadn’t seen or read this news. But now hat I have, really, oh dear!

    Granted, we expect this sort of stuff from politicians of every hue. The problem for this politician is that he was confronted by Nichols with a simple moral premise that will resonate with one and all: create misery when you are in a position not to do that – not morally acceptable. His reply was a kind of ‘ends and means’ argument (we want to achieve certain ends and put right certain wrongs, and the only way to do that is going to cause misery, but the people who have been made miserable will feel better afterwards,) with all the evidence he thinks will suit that position underlined, all the counter-evidence ignored, and most of the premises unexamined.

    Politicians’ stuff indeed, and loaded PR, they all do it. But when you enter – or as in this case are confronted with – a moral argument you have to ditch the PR and argue. If you don’t, you don’t just look shallow, you are being shallow.

  11. BIGFATRON

    @”, get back into opposition, and be able to start re-building. It will be a long haul for sure,”

    As a matter of interest-a long haul to where?

  12. COLIN DAVIS

    Thanks.

    Its a point of view.

  13. LEFTY

    @” hundreds of thousands of people reduced to needing good banks ”

    Couldn’t help mentioning that one . :-)

    Your not wrong either.

  14. @STATGEEK

    None of the big three are ‘left-wing’.

    I think EM might run a fairly left wing gov’t on public services, reining in big business and the banks, re or pre distribution etc. And he will have the freedom to as his voters are left of centre.

  15. @Lefty L

    “The fact that we now have hundreds of thousands of people reduced to needing good banks is the result of the recession…”

    I think there’s more than hundreds of thousands needing good banks. Globally, I’d say that ran into the billion!

    Apologies for picking up a typo, but I thought it was too good a one to resist.

    Very good post, by the way.

  16. @LEFTLAMPTON

    I agree with you and perhaps niavely I am pinning my hopes on EM to reverse that trend.

  17. @BIGFATRON and COLIN

    “a long haul to where?”

    I presume to:

    “a distinct location on the political compass that would otherwise sit empty”

    I can sort of see what you mean Ron but despite being mildly politically geekish I’m not all that clear of the coordinates of that location.

    I used to think of them as centre with a slight leftish tinge with a bit of concern over civil liberties (though nothing to frighten the horses) and as the ‘nice’ party.
    I have no idea what they stand for now.

  18. “I was out last night, so haven’t read up, but has DC really said “Benefit cuts give people hope”?”

    Probably not in those words but I think the Telegraph’s sub-editor caught the spirit of Cameron’s sermon.

  19. @ChrisLane 1945

    After my recent vow to become a model UKPR poster, sticking strictly to the Comments Policy at all times, I think I’d better steer well clear of entering any discussions about the Catholic Church!

    I’m a lapsed Catholic of long standing, but have retained a sentimental attachment, essentially derived from a Catholic upbringing and education. I have much to say, obviously, but not on a website dedicated to political opinion polling! It’s tempting when reading some of the posts, but to be resisted

    Suffice to say that Vincent Nichols appears to be a good man.

  20. Reg

    You have to click on the word ‘calculate’ in the Overall Projection box. It’s not highlighted and doesn’t always seem to work, but something should happen eventually.

    For what it’s worth I put in the latest YouGov (Con 33, Lab 40, LD 8, Other 20) together with the Welsh poll (Con 22, Lab 47, LD 7, PC 11, Other 13) and Statgeek’s 5-poll average for Scotland (Con 20, Lab 36, LD 5, SNP 31, Other 8) and it gave a Labour majority of 80 (Con 233, Lab 365, LD 20, SNP 12, PC 1, NI 18, Speaker 1)

  21. @CROSSBAT

    I agree about Nichols.

    I think vicars (of all descriptions) are a bit like politicians. Most of them have good intentions but they are often compromised by excessive respect for party policy.

  22. I’ve heard EM wants to exempt flood victims from council tax. That grinding sound is a spanner in the works. Probably won’t register on most people’s radar though.

  23. The government has now announced that flood victims forced out of their homes will be exempt from council tax but deny this has anything to do with Labour.

  24. BBC ( Ross Hawkins) tweets that Labour will only fund its “Jobs Guarantee” for one year.

    Not sure where he gets this from.

  25. @ Colin
    See Guymonde’s response!

    @GuyMonde
    I agree, LibDems have lost clarity on what they really stand for – is it economic rigour or is it a soft-left economic idealism that they want to combine with social liberalism? I guess this is the ‘orange book’ v’traditional LibDem’ split in essence.

    The confusion stems from their emphasis in campaigning up to 2010 on the soft-left economic idealism, of which reversal of tuition fees was a great example.

    But once in coalition they have allowed it to appear (and in many examples it wasn’t just an appearance) that economic rigour trumps fairness. Dramatically increasing tax free pay for low income families is a truly liberal policy, but it has been overshadowed by the 45% tax rate the Tories demanded as a quid pro quo.

    So LDs aren’t perceived as the party that fought for tax cuts for the low paid, they are the party that ‘allowed’ tax cuts to the rich.

    Sometimes they have had a bad story because they have failed to defend the liberal position, and where they have had a good story to tell (from a liberal perspective) they have manifestly failed to get that story out.

    Given their total failure to get across any nuanced messages while in power, I guess they are going to have to try to coalesce around some clear, simple policy themes if they have any chance of recovering ground in 2020. I agree it is really not clear what those themes could be.

  26. @ Crossbat

    “but have retained a sentimental attachment, essentially derived from a Catholic upbringing and education”

    Apparently Villa are the notional Catholic team in Birmingham although no sign there is any current sectarian rivalry? This is probably the sentimental attachment bit you have held onto.

    I’m sure I remember a lot of church criticism of some Thatcher policies but it didn’t seem to have any polling influence- it’s not like the Bish is saying vote Labour or anything.

  27. It is reported that when the Insurance Industry accused EM of not understanding how long it takes to dry some of these houses out, they offered him an ABI briefing-which he rejected.

    Mind you, I think EM does pick his sniper fire targets well-Banks, Energy Companies, Insurance Companies.

    I can see “industry” becoming as twitchy about EM as it appears to be about Salmond.

  28. According to FT, David Cameron’s strategist Lynton Crosby is:

    ‘.. concerned about a public perception that the Tories are obsessed with fiscal prudence. He is said to believe that Mr Duncan Smith’s message – that the reform is about changing lives, rather than saving money – will resonate with voters in the run-up to polling day.’

    I think this tactic can be observed in other government minister’s statements but seems to be particularly relevant with regard to David Cameron’s response to the Archbishop. In this instance, I suspect that ignoring the statement would have been a wiser move for the Conservatives.

    Describing the Benefit cuts as a ‘moral mission’, together with last week’s statement that the UK is a rich country and can spend whatever needs to be spent on the floods, Cameron undermines his arguments for ‘austerity’… and opens himself up to a charge of Machiavellianism. Ironically, one could also accuse him of ‘nannying’ the population by pretending a crisis in order to produce the changes in behaviour that he seems to believe are more moral.

    However, as is often said on this site, I doubt that the vast majority of the population will register the spat or its wider implications – e.g. the ‘model of man’/moral authoritarianism which underpins Conservative philosophy. I believe that JK Galbraith said:

    “The modern Conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy, that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”

  29. BIGFATRON

    @”See Guymonde’s response!”

    I did -he suggested ““a distinct location on the political compass that would otherwise sit empty”-and said he didn’t know where that was located.

    Mine was a serious question about your suggestion that LDs would have a “long haul back”. I really would like to know what that destination is.

    But if you don’t know-thats fine.

  30. GRAHAM

    @” the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party ”

    Here we go-Godwin Time.

  31. Sue

    A nice quote-was just havinfg a look at JKG-found this :-

    “Paul Krugman, who later won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science in 1994 downplayed Galbraith’s stature as an academic economist. In Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in an Age of Diminished Expectations, he places Galbraith as one among many “policy entrepreneurs” – either economists, or think tank writers, left and right – who write solely for the public, as opposed to one who writes for other academics, and who is, therefore, liable to make unwarranted diagnoses and offer over-simplistic answers to complex economic problems. Krugman asserts that Galbraith was never taken seriously by fellow academics, instead viewing him as more of a “media personality”. For example, Krugman believes that Galbraith’s work, The New Industrial State, is not considered to be “real economic theory”, and that Economics in Perspective is “remarkably ill-informed”

    Wiki

    Economists are like sweets don’t you think? There are lots to choose from , and we all have our favourites-but hardly any of them are good for us.d

  32. Roger Scully has now put up the tables for the YouGov poll for Wales:

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2014/02/Feb-2014.pdf

    There are some interesting facts from it. For example although UKIP support is fairly evenly spread as usual, they are clearly strongest in North Wales, parts of which would match the ‘C2 Retirees’ profile of areas they do strongly in in places like Kent.

    Equally OldNat’s query, about why a popular government isn’t popular regarding what it actually does, is I think partly explained by partisanship. A lot of non-Labour voters seem to disapprove automatically because of the way the question is phrased (Since the last Assembly election in 2011, do you think the Welsh Assembly government has done a good or bad job with each of the following?). But even among Labour supporters there isn’t that much enthusiasm: only +6 on the NHS, +10 on Schools, though +21 on “the Welsh economy”. Again you wonder about ‘infection’ from UK media and possibly a belief that the NAW actually have that much power to change things. Certainly the the percentages answering “Neither good nor bad” are high generally: 25%, 27% and 36% respectively.

    One odd little thing is that 17% of those voting PC for the NAW would vote UKIP for Europe if at all – a defection rate from the constituency vote almost as high as for Conservatives. Welsh Nationalist UKIP-ers may seem a contradiction in terms, but there seem quite a lot of them. This is nothing like as strong among those choosing PC for Westminster. It may suggest there are some people making that choice seeing PC and UKIP as the most effective non-Lab and non-Con opposition in those parliaments, but also shows how PC and SNP may be mopping up some potential UKIP votes and that may be partly why UKIP do so badly north of the Border.

    [Reposted because Anthony has ridiculously put an automatic block on mentioning the bit of the UK at the top of the map. Presumably he’s going to rename the site rUKPR]

  33. Reg

    You have to click on the word ‘calculate’ in the Overall Projection box. It’s not highlighted and doesn’t always seem to work, but something should happen eventually.

    For what it’s worth I put in the latest YouGov (Con 33, Lab 40, LD 8, Other 20) together with the Welsh poll (Con 22, Lab 47, LD 7, PC 11, Other 13) and Statgeek’s 5-poll average for The Country That Must Not Be Mentioned (Con 20, Lab 36, LD 5, SNP 31, Other 8) and it gave a Labour majority of 80 (Con 233, Lab 365, LD 20, SNP 12, PC 1, NI 18, Speaker 1).

    [Reposted from earlier – see above]

  34. We could all have fun by putting ‘money no object’ flood relief phrases into the Cameron Telegraph article about the morality of benefit cuts.

    “As I said on the steps of Downing Street on my first night as Prime Minister, “those who can should, those who can’t we will always help”. Those who can’t put their own houses to rights will be always supported, but those who can do it themselves have the responsibility to do so. The country’s support services should never take that responsibility away. Whatever your religious or spiritual perspective, I believe very firmly that it is wrong to penalise those who sort their own houses out and do the right thing while rewarding those who can do it, but don’t.”

  35. @ Colin

    True .. and economists have a lot to answer for, both those that are naive and those with vested interests.

    However, Krugman’s views shift all the time and I think he would regard JKG with more respect now than in his more ideological neokeynesian past. I re-watched Galbraith’s BBC series shown in the 70s, and it was breath-taking to realise how quickly and the extent to which TINA has excluded any other economic strand of thought. A monopoly of thinking is a straight jacket which most of us would regard as undesirable and dangerous.

  36. “GRAHAM

    @” the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party ”

    Here we go-Godwin Time.”

    Surely, Colin, we should ask: does Graham’s reference make a point in the light of DC’s article in the Telgraph, or does it not? Godwin and his ‘life and soul of the back bar in the George and Dragon’ law is neither here nor there, is it?

  37. Re JKG, whatever Krugmann thinks as to his standing as an economist – and as a profession, academic economists haven’t exactly proved themselves to be on top of things, have they? – he was on this occasion making a point about the history of right wing morality. All that counts is, right or wrong, which was it?

  38. @Colin
    Apologies if I misinterpreted your question.

    I guess I feel that I understand what is meant by liberalism as a philosophy and political ideal, but I am not sure whether the LibDems as a party will attempt to reposition themselves there.

    I would characterise the natural Liberal position as seeing that there is a balance to be achieved between the rights & freedoms of each section of society – whether in the economic, personal or social spheres – which should have a bias toward protecting personal freedoms as long as it did not do harm to others. It would also recognise the moral obligation on anyone who is part of society to make a contribution to that society that is a function of their ability to do so.

    Obviously there is a bucket load of interpretation that then follows from this to achieve concrete policies.

    I suspect a Catholic Archbishop would have no trouble at all with the second half of my ‘liberal’ definition, even if they were very challenged by the first half….

  39. @BIGFATRON

    I agree with your analysis of the LDs’ failure of message during coalition times.

    Trouble is “Dramatically increasing tax free pay for low income families” seems to me to be a socialist policy rather than anything distinctively liberal, and it’s the kind of thing that many Lab supporters will be urging EM to espouse.

    My personal impression is that the LDs are comfortable occupying a space where their job is to moderate what the other parties do in government – ie, nothing really distinctively liberal and that (as I think you acknowledge) ain’t a winning formula.

  40. Sue

    Thanks.

    I know we differ deeply politically so will not stretch a tenuous thread of respect I liking.

    Actually your JKG quote isn’t in the same league as Graham’s choice from Aus*****z.

    But their usage here both had me wondering what the reaction would be if the few Conservative supporters took every opportunity to attribute the basest of intentions and mores to Labour supporters & politicians.

    I imagine the yelps of horror & offence would be legion.

    The tyranny of the majority eh Sue?

  41. BIGFATRON

    Thanks-it was probably my lack of clarity.

    I wasn’t really asking about political philosophy-but destination-where it is you think they are getting “back to” .

    If it is offensive to their supporters & (some MPs) that a place in government is prejudicial to their raison d’etre , then the answer must, one presumes, be-Permanent Opposition.

    If, on the other hand, it is only offensive to those persons if the place in government is with Conservatives-and not with Labour-then the answer would appear to be-Inside the Labour Party.

    But I expect they will make their minds up one way or the other.

  42. Roger Mexico

    Thanks. I used the same two polls as you. I was fairly sure I had pressed calculate but it would seem it’s a little unpredictable.

  43. Anyone watch Peston on the Chinese economy last night?

    Pretty alarming if taken at face value, and with the potential to blow any recovery sky-high, though unlikely to break fast enough to dramatically affect 2015.

    I’d be interested in thoughts of the wise posters on UKPR. And the unwise ones, if they exist.

  44. @Colin
    Thanks – I would argue that since neither Conservative nor Labour parties are liberal in their general approach the answer to whether they are aligning themselves to work with the Tories or become subsumed into Labour is ‘neither’.

    LibDems initial experience of being in government has been both bruising and somewhat inept. If I was guessing I would suspect that the temptation to orientate as a permanent opposition that can influence either party toward liberal positions without the risk of being punished for responsibility for actual decisions will be hard to resist.

    How achievable it will be is another matter…

  45. I get the impression a large problem that developed with the Liberal Democrats in the early 2000s was that they got to the point where half the party members sounded like Labour supporters and half sounded like Conservatives.

    This developed out of political necessity – as has been pointed out, a Scottish Lib Dem is a very different creature to one in Kent because they appeal to different sorts of voters – but it’s meant there wasn’t any longer a distinctive “Liberal Democrat Identity” as far as most voters could see.

    The foundations for this were laid in the 1990s, when Labour occupied the former SDP ground of being very moderately socialist economically but also socially liberal (pre-War on Terror).

    The Tories for their part turned to focus mainly on economics as a result of the 2008 recession.

    The end result was that two other parties both appealed to the two types of Lib Dem voter. Half of them ran to Ed when the coalition formed and the other half will presumably run to Cameron if Clegg hops the fence.

  46. @SYZYGY

    Have you read Galbraith’s essay, “The Culture of Contentment”? It’s well worth a read and although written over 20 years ago, it is still remarkably salient in its observations on how capitalist economies and societies tend to evolve. It has echoes of Bertrand Russell and his concept of the “tyranny of the fortunate”.

    @Shevvi

    “Apparently Villa are the notional Catholic team in Birmingham although no sign there is any current sectarian rivalry?”

    Very much emphasis on the word “notional”, I think, and it may be linked to the fact that the large Irish community in Birmingham tends to follow the Villa rather than Birmingham or the Albion. It’s never grown into a sectarian rivalry on an Auld Firm, or even Everton v Liverpool, scale and any supposed links have faded with time. We’re essentially a godless lot in Brum!

    ChrisLane 1945 will know more of this than me, but I believe Manchester United have strong Catholic ties and until Ron Atkinson arrived, had a tradition of only appointing Catholic Managers (Busby, McGuiness, O’Farrell, Sexton, Docherty – the clue is in the names!), but I stand to be corrected on this.

    I think Sir Alex, an old Rangers man, broke the link with Roman Catholicism for good! lol

  47. BFR

    Thanks.

    It would be interesting to get thev views of LD supporters-particularly the defectors to Labou since 2010-on which destination they would favour.

  48. It is noticeable that on this site (and incidently on LDV) most references to the Lib Dems refer to them being a liberal party. Further, the suggestion is that they are an economic liberal party with no consideration for social liberalism.

    It appears to have been forgotten that the LDs were formed from the joining of the Liberals and the Social Democrats. What has happened to social democracy? The answer to that question is probably why I am no longer a member of the Lib Dems and why their VI has dropped so dramatically in the last (almost) four years.

  49. In a sense, David Owen may actually have been right when he said that a merger would kill off Social Democracy. Shame he was an arrogant git that nobody wanted to vote for.

    In any case, the Labour Party’s current ideology is essentially social democracy with a trade union link attached!

  50. GUYMONDE

    Yes-saw it-though only the second half.

    It added pictures & people to a developing situation which has received detailed Financial Press coverage. Nevertheless-seeing the vast construction sites was helpful.

    I thought the most chilling numbers were given by the lady from Fitch because she made one see how huge they are.

    For me though , ( unless I missed it ) Peston failed to answer my key reservation about all of this.

    China is a one party State. The Banks are organs of the State. They were after all the chosen channel through which the great economic reform was initiated.

    As Peston said, Phase 1 of that reform was orientated around exporting-he made the observation that they had flooded the west with cheap goods & destroyed much of our manufacturing.

    That phase is over now, and the CCP is trying switch investment to encourage domestic consumption-hence all the booming offices & housing, alongside the struggling industrial plants which led Phase 1.

    But the export phase generated massive trade surpluses-all invested around the world, much of it in US State Debt .

    Peston didn’t ask the question-yes there are these impaired B ( State) Bank Debts-but what about the State Invested Trade Surpluses overseas?

    I think he may have missed one side of the Chinese State ” Balance Sheet”, and I suspect that it affects the real nature of the risk inherant in the Credit Boom he was covering.

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