Sunday Polls

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. Topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. YouGov have had a couple of polls in recent weeks with polls leads up around 9 points, suggesting that beneath the normal random variation the Labour lead has crept up slightly over the last fortnight with energy prices back in the news. The rest of the polls was largely taken up with questions about confidence in the workplace, but there were a few questions on Labour and the Unions and unqualified teachers.

57% of people think the trade unions have a lot (23%) or a fair amount (34%) of influence over Labour, and on balance this is seen as a bad thing: 41% think they have too much influence, compared to 10% who think they don’t have enough and 24% who think it is about right. This is largely due to Conservative voters though, amongst Labour’s own supporters 48% think the level of trade union influence is about right. On Falkirk 41% of people think Unite probably did fix the selection, but almost half of respondents said don’t know, suggesting it is an issue that has not really caught the attention of the general public at all.

People are evenly split on whether unqualified teachers can be as good as qualified ones – 42% think it’s possible for people with expertise in other fields to be just as good, 43% that teachers with proper qualifications and training will always be better. Despite that a clear overall majority (63%) still think that schools should only be allowed to employ qualified teachers.

Meanwhile the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 31%(+4), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 16%(-1). It shows a sharp decrease in the Labour lead, but it’s almost certainly just a reversion to the mean after the anomalous eleven point lead a fortnight ago. Putting that one unusual poll aside a seven point Labour lead is typical of Opinium’s polls over the last few months.

Opinium also asked about people’s perceptions of BBC bias. 37% of people think the way the BBC covers the news is politically neutral, 27% think it is biased towards the left, 14% think it is biased towards the right.


284 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. I really don’t see this call for MPs to be expected to stay in crummy hotels in London – how will that enable them to give a good service to their constituents.

    They should be paid a good wage, which I think they are and should have a regulated expenses system – just like they would be working away from home. I don’t see why they cannot be given a rail warrant to allow 1st class travel to enable them to work whilst travelling.

    On London accommodation, a dedicated block sounds like a good idea but London costs would be extortionate, so I don’t see any option but to pay for rental costs – again regulated for what they can claim.

    Longer term if we want to cut the expense there is the option of moving Parliament to one the regions – cheaper and would give a boost to somewhere else. Whilst parliament is in London it will always cost a lot for the MPs – we just have to lump it

  2. @ Ewan Lightfoot

    I wanted to be sure that I had not misunderstood the wit & wisdom of your interjection. :-)

  3. Jayblanc

    The rest of us have to duck and dive,why shouldn’t MP’s?
    It might do them some good not knowing quite where they were going to be sleeping that night,and they would meet a wider range of people!

  4. One of the many closing prisons could house m.p’s. Spartan but humane.

  5. @ Ewen Lightfoot

    The rest of us have to duck and dive, why shouldn’t MPs?
    ————————-
    Because the ‘top’ MPs (i.e. PM & Chancellor) have state owned houses at their disposal. If the rest of them [MPs] “have to duck & dive”, why shouldn’t the PM & Chancellor? Why shouldn’t London MPs “have to duck & dive” too? Let’s evict them from the houses in which they live so that they can be ‘proper’ “duck & dive” MPs too…

  6. @ David

    One of the many closing prisons could house m.p’s. Spartan but humane.
    —————–
    Some prisons have been turned into luxury hotels & flats. Spartan they ain’t.

  7. Class Survey poll (extra)

    I tried this out on Mrs H with no inflexion in my voice or other bias.

    She thought the same as I. ‘Not a lot is below ‘a lot’ but above ‘a little’.

    The point is not that we are both stupid (always possible) but that the interviewed person could be one or the other. If it was an online poll (I assume so) then even the presentation in the order intended (and as presented) would have made me think that the pollster was doing that to eliminate any bias in the order that the question was being asked.

  8. Amber:

    The girls passed it on thanks.

    Re Mps:

    1/ They should be paid well

    2/ Millionaires amongst them should be forced to accept full pay and full pay rises rather than making disingenuous “noble” gestures.

    If they think they have too much money then they can always do as GB did/does and give some of their other money to charity.

    At the mo. its like a head teacher who is dead rich publicising the fact that s/he doesn’t all the due salary. It is completely unfair to those who rely on salary to support themselves and their families should they have one.

    What we basically need is a commsense bloke like me to asvise on everything – including signposts which are crap.

  9. Amber
    Sorry, l thought Jayblanc was joking, so l joined in.

  10. By the way, I realise GB started that salary reduction idea and feel it is not the way to go.

  11. ewen

    “Amber
    Sorry, l thought Jayblanc was joking, so l joined in.”

    Like me, JB never jokes.

    Actually I don’t think he does.

  12. @ amber star.Do you speak from experience?

  13. The whole BBC pronunciation thing is rather farcical of course. like many conventions, it seems designed to separate out the insiders from the thickies who’ve not been educated proper.

    Consider:
    The French town Auxerre is pronounced Oh-ZER.
    Yet the Man of La Mancha, apparenatly is Don KWIK-sowt.

    The Roman orator was SI-serow.
    But Newton’s masterpiece was the Prin-KIP-ia.

    Does anyone what HAS been educated proper know if this is the doing of the Oxbridge mafia? Certainly Paxman and Bragg (Melvyn, not Billy) are prime examples of upholders of these bizarre conventions.

  14. @ Ewen

    Sorry, l thought Jayblanc was joking, so l joined in.
    ———–
    I thought you might be joking – so I joined in. ;-)

  15. “@ amber star.Do you speak from experience?”

    You just need to read the Daily Mail for the “inside” story on luxury prisons David.

    Disgraceful.

  16. In speaking of luxury ex-prisons, I was being literal not Daily Mailesque.

  17. Laszlo was being observant, I thought. Some people do still say ‘baaaaa’ when they mean ‘bar’, but there’s no need for the rest of us to be sheep. Bars, cars, and twinkly-twinkly little stars have an ‘r’ on the end of them and it’s mocking the language not to pronounce it, say I.

  18. Labour are hitting 40’s more regularly, but their average isn’t much over the same old, same old, 38. The Conservative average remains, so UKIP – who ate Conservative votes first, then took some from Labour over the ”Ed is a disaster” period – could possibly be slipping back. But will they truly fade? Sheer guesswork, of course, but I doubt it, and I personally won’t believe in a Labour 40 unless and until they take regular, and serious, chunks out of the Conservative VI itself.

  19. @ Colin Davis

    I call them pubs. Is that mocking the language?

  20. PH
    Thanks for the links to the CLASS poll (realise now it should have capital letters).
    It actually depressed me (apart from the specific point I made earlier about the questions) that probably the same people who in 1985 were all gung ho to privatise everything (see especially UKIP and 60 plus results) are now stating the opposite without a hint of conscience.

    I suppose they don’t think they had anything to do with what resulted, but they are wrong, because that’s what they voted for.

  21. @ amber star

    My apologies

  22. @ Colin Davis,

    I personally won’t believe in a Labour 40 unless and until they take regular, and serious, chunks out of the Conservative VI itself.

    Huh? Either Labour’s average VI is 40 or it isn’t (and I agree with you, right now it isn’t), but I don’t see what Tory VI has to do with it.

    The Tories are around 33%. That leaves 67% of the electorate for Labour to draw from, and it’s entirely possible for them to get 40% out of it without Tory VI moving at all. This time last year the Tories were at 33% and Labour were in the mid-40s.

  23. @ Colin,

    Oh, unless you meant at the general election.

    But even then, 2001 saw 40.7% – 31.7% with the Lib Dems on 18.3%, so it seems theoretically possible if you reallocate some of the Lib Dem votes. Not likely, but possible.

  24. @Colin Davis
    “Labour are hitting 40?s more regularly, but their average isn’t much over the same old, same old, 38.”

    On the weekly (5 poll) rolling average it’s now 39.8%. Much closer to 40% than 38%. And in the week of the LD conference it fell briefly to 36.4%.

    The weekly rolling average lead is now 7.0%.

  25. Hi Spearmint,

    Sure, it’s entirely possible for Lab to hit the 40’s without Con VI shifting. I was merely guessing (as I said) that Lab’s 38 – which has stood for some time – remains true reflection of where they are. A year ago they had more. Then UKIP, not the Tories cut that down a bit. My ‘guess’ was the UKIP VI would hold, so if Lab should go back up to the 40’s it would be at the expense of the Cons. That’s probably no more ‘grounded’ than a market trader’s hunch as to how a currency will move, however. Hands up to that.

  26. Hi Phil,

    But has the average for the last month changed much? I have to confess (you and Spearmint rumbled me) I haven’t looked at the excel charts for a week or so, so I was hunching.

  27. I was teasing, Amber. But come on, the ‘r’ of bar, car and star is one of the most glorious sounds in the English language (say I) and Home Counties voices (especially) neglect to use it. And I live in Taunton anyway.

  28. Hi Colin!

    Yes, you’re on a bit stronger ground over a month as the three preceding weeks were 39.0%, 39.0%, 38.9%. Still consistently above 38% though, with the last week of 39.8% diverging above that pattern.

    T’would be good if AW could get around soon to updating his tracker charts (again).

    PS. Please (before @Rosie and Daisie give a wuff)

  29. Just lost 500 words on one of my job applications. Annoying.

    Good email from PK today by the way. ‘Comfortable middle’ V ‘squeezed’ middle comparisons rather interesting.

    First impression from the figures was the ‘squeezed’ was mostly Labours (currently), ‘comfortable’ leans slightly more Tory, but still up for grabs.

  30. Hmmm… – this from Romano Prodi, the EU Commission chief who ushered in the Euro – “German public opinion is by now convinced that any economic stimulus for the European economy is an unjustified help for the ‘feckless’ South, to which I have the honour of belonging. They are obsessed with inflation, just like teenagers obsessed with sex. They don’t understand that the real problem today in deflation, as I have been saying for a year…”

    He added – “Today there is only one country and only one in command: Germany. ”

    And – “It is stupid that this [the 3% deficit ceiling] has not been changed for 20 years. A 3pc deficit makes sense at certain moments, at other times it should be zero, at others 4pc or 5pc.”

    Prodi is calling for a Latin front to take Germany head on, as it’s clear the EZ is not functioning as a proper currency any more.

    Ructions in Europe are looming back onto the horizon.

  31. Alec
    The last time the ‘South’ threatened to take on Germany was Musso with the Sud Tyrol ,and that didn’t come to much.

  32. Even the Romans didn’t make much of a dent on Germany.

  33. @ Phil Haines

    Teacher’s pet- AW has updated them!

    Slightly pro lab and anti Con time of the month for an update as basically excludes the two bad ones for Lab- ICM and nearly all of Mori. I’d say an average for Lab of 39 seems a bit high (or yet to be proved) and 32 for Con a little low (or yet to be proved).

  34. Today’s populus:

    Lab 39
    Con 34
    LD 10
    UKIP 10

  35. So Lab scores seem to be up, but the lead isn’t growing by as much because of a rising Con score. Of course, a higher Lab score still helps them against SNP, LD, PC, Respect without a bigger lead, so should lift their spirits.

    A higher Con score should give Tories hope of snatching some more LD seats and possibly holding off some Lab challenges.

  36. ewen

    “Puppoes , let me be the first to wish your dad Happy Birthday!”

    Oh No !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I keep telling them not to let anyone know that my birthday is THIS Friday [8th November] at noon.

    They are so naughty.

  37. SHEVII

    Could it be that “The Bairn” in the Sunday Post cartoon strp “The Broons” is often dominant?

    Place name pronunciation is such a vexed question that the BBC have a “Pronunciation Unit” which is rather good, and all presenters are encouraged to use.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogcollegeofjournalism/posts/Where-did-you-say-you-were-The-perils-of-place-name-pronunciation

    “what differentiates an area to being more inclined to be SNP or Labour.?”

    That’s a really hard question! Depends on whether you are talking about Holyrood or Westminster elections, as to what factors might be involved.

    It’s certainly not a class issue. Both Labour and SNP are “fishing in the same pool” for votes.

  38. Talking about the Broons, there is a Glebe Street in central Fawkirk (or Eglesbrech as referred to in some of the more pretentious pubs).

    Used to get the annuals (along with Oor Wullie) each Xmas – strange seeing I lived in Wolverhampton.

    Took me a while to realise their name was Brown (saw it on the doorplate one story) – I assumed they were Dundonians, not sure if it was the case

  39. MRNAMELESS

    “a higher Lab score still helps them against SNP, LD, PC, Respect without a bigger lead,”

    But, of those, only the LDs stand throughout GB. Only the ratings in Wales and Scotland are relevant with regard to PC and SNP. Other than George Galloway (who has said that he will only fight elections in England, in future) are Respect any kind of force?

  40. OldNat,

    from what I understand, they did reasonably well in a handful of Birmingham and London seats in 2010. However, since their subsequent implosion and Ed’s position on Iraq, it’s unlikely they’ll be any kind of threat this time.

  41. BCROMBIE

    Dundonians they were, I suppose, since Watkins lived in Dundee.

    There is a Glebe Street (or Road or similar) almost everywhere since it referred to the parish minister’s glebe. I believe that its generic nature was the reason for choosing Glebe Street as their address.

  42. @Shevii

    Haven’t been called that for a long while.

    Why not just look YouGov one in isolation then – it’s much easier to spot the trend looking at just YouGov alone.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

  43. And thanks, AW.

  44. @Lefty

    I’ve never understood the pronounciation “KWIK-ZOTE.” The “x” in Quixote is Old Spanish, and pronounced in Spanish as a “jota.” I appreciate there is no English sound for this letter, but the nearest ewuivalent is not “z” but “h”. Qui-ho-te is much closer to the Spanish.

  45. “And thanks, AW.”

    No need to get carried away Phil……….

  46. @Lefty

    Ewivalent indeed :)

  47. @ Colin Davis

    I like a French ‘r’ myself. Ambérrr Starrr, done properly, sounds verrry cool. ;-)

  48. Yes, I like French Rs

    Paul

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