There are two polls in today’s papers, both showing a five point Labour lead. Opinium in the Observer, conducted mid-week – so both before and after David Cameron’s conference speech – has voting intentions of CON 31%(+2), LAB 36%(nc), LD 7%(nc), UKIP 15%(-2), full tabs here. Meanwhile YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%, the sort of place YouGov was before conference. Full tabs are here.

Most of the rest of the YouGov poll deals with the Conservative conference and Ed Miliband vs the Mail. David Cameron’s own rating on doing a good or bad job is slightly up following his conference – 41% now think he is doing a good job as Prime Minister. This is up only 3 points since last week, not significant in itself, but it brings him to his highest score since before the “omnishambles budget” in 2012.

There are rather mixed responses to the rest of the Conservative conference. They don’t seen to be dominating their chosen territory of appealing to “hard-working” people yet – asked which party has the better policies for hard-working people 33% say Labour to the Conservatives’ 24%.

There are also mixed findings on some of the policies highlighted at Conservative conference. There is very widespread (70%) support for forcing the long-term unemployed to do community work or risk losing their benefits and a narrow majority (52%) support stopping benefits for under 25s who are not in work or training (39% oppose). Attitudes to “Help to Buy” though are more uncertain, 43% support the policy, 40% are opposed. Digging a little deeper, 51% think the policy is likely to make it easier for ordinary people to buy a home and 70% think it is likely to increase house prices (which is, of course, not necessarily a good thing). However, 58% of people also think it is likely to risk creating another housing bubble.

In the row between the Mail and Ed Miliband the public come down solidly on the side of Miliband. Even on the principle of writing about and criticising Ralph Miliband’s views and his potential influence on Ed Miliband only 26% of people think that this was acceptable. Asked specifically about the Mail calling Ralph Miliband the “man who hated Britain” just 17% thought the Mail’s language was acceptable, 72% unacceptable. 69% of people think that the Daily Mail should apologise.

78% of people think that Ed Miliband was right to complain to the Mail, and a quarter of people say the way he has reacted to the Mail’s attack has made them view Ed Miliband more positively.

While the Daily Mail’s own readers are more likely than the general public to support the Mail’s actions, overall they still think they were unacceptable. By 50% to 42% Mail readers think it was unacceptable for the paper to write about and criticise Ralph Miliband’s views, and by 60% to 29% they think it was unacceptable to use language like the “man who hated Britain”. 57% of the Mail’s own readers think they should apologise.

480 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Opinium polls”

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  1. @Alister1948

    LD 14% in 2015

    I agree with your LD prediction for 2015. I see the LD as having a core of7 or 8% and they will hope to receive 3% of tactical Con votes and 3% of tactical Lab votes. I think they will retain about 30 plus of their seats.


    2015 prediction

    7% other, 7% UKIP 14% LD 36% Lab 36% Con

    If Lab want to get up to 40% they are going to have to get new votes, young voters and non voters to turn out for them. If the Cons want 40% they need to squeeze UKIP back down to 3%..

    But who knows, as Colin Davis says these VI polls are only for amusement.

  2. Help !

    For those good at maths can you explain this.

    67% show a 7% lead for the Tories
    33% show a 20% lead for Labour.

    How is it then calculated that Labour have a 4% lead ?

    I am looking at the social grade unweighted data in todays YG poll.

    @” As a father, I would wish her no prizes plus anonymity.”

    Fortunately for the young girls of the Swat, and indeed children everywhere, her Father is as visionary , bold , determined & fearless as she is.

    Without people like Malala & her Father, we would all be cowering in corners wishing for anonymity.

  4. -19 Approval must be some sort of record in recent times ?

    Statgeek will no doubt demonstrate.

  5. R Huckle – you’ve almost answered it yourself. Figures are based on the *weighted* data, not the unweighted data.

  6. ” did the invaders from outer space take over the earth?”

    Yes, they are in a coalition with Lib Dems.

  7. Anthony

    The Tories had a small lead in this particular sample, before YG weighted it, to meet the criteria you needed. YG obviously apply weighting because each sample collected will not always meet the profile required to give an idea of where the UK stands politically.

  8. @ Colin, Howard

    As a father, I would wish her no prizes plus anonymity.

    Fortunately for the young girls of the Swat, and indeed children everywhere, her Father is as visionary , bold , determined & fearless as she is.
    As a woman, I’d say: Can we not make this about her father? He wasn’t the one who was shot in the head. Just get over yourselves: Malala is her own person with her own views & achievements, regardless of her age.

  9. Oh my, we can report comments

  10. Sorry AW, I couldn’t help myself

  11. @James Kay

    “Conservatives to gain 21 seats in Scotland!”

    Mmm. The Scottish cross-break does look a little odd.

    Lab 34 (-7)
    Con 22 (+21)
    Lib 2 (-9)
    SNP 1 (-5)

    So a change of +28 for the Cons in their worst region? Wait and see perhaps? :))

  12. I’ve reported your comment Statgeek.

    Don’t won’t this site flooded with chat about polls, do we?

  13. I shall report rogue apostrophes too, even if they are mine.

  14. @Colin

    “-19 Approval must be some sort of record in recent times ?”

    Can’t disagree with that. The last instance was 2nd March 2012, and it was an outlier. To get a consistent group of similar numbers, go back to December 2010. Not exactly recent by polling standards.

  15. Some of you seem interested in colours. Does anybody know what was red in 2001, blue in 2002, yellow in 2003, blue in 2004, black in 2005, white in 2006, and red in 2007?

    It could have to do with football or politics or anything, and I don’t know the answer but there is one and I would like it! (Not for the serious minded and perhaps for the moderation deserved for the sad in the technical teenage sense)

  16. @Charles

    It doesn’t seem to be English or Scottish Cups, and it’s not their league winners either.

    Black, yellow, white. If we’re talking the UK, I would guess at some other sport, or maybe the colour of season tickets for clubs or even transport. I thought of tax discs, but I’m not sure black is ever used.

    Maybe it’s some bureaucratic form, which keep changing colour.

    “What colour shall we paint the town hall?” questionnaire forms…

  17. Now we can report comments which are stupidly partisan rather than:
    1. replying to them; or
    2. fuming (whilst also congratulating ourselves on our own remarkable restraint).

    The fun has just gone out of our lives… ;-)


    “Mmm. The Scottish cross-break does look a little odd.”

    Yes, and how much does this oddity (if oddity it is) skew the whole poll and the approval rating?

  19. I can only assume that automod has no sense of humour!

  20. Oops – Statgeek, sorry!

  21. Anthony

    Good idea. You should add “No timewasters.”

    You could run it like a panel game where a wrong report loses you points.

  22. rosieanddaisie
    Actually, I’ll be b-gg-red if I’ll report anyone or anything.

  23. “Mmm. The Scottish cross-break does look a little odd.”

    I think the same about most folk dances where blokes wear kilts.

  24. @Charles

    2008 is black, then blue, white, red-and-white stripes, red, sky blue.

    2001 ought to be red-and-white
    2004 ought to be blue-and-white

    Help at all?

  25. New thread

  26. @ Robin

    Is it something to do with rugby?

  27. @Amber

    No. A clue – Statgeek was wrong.

  28. AMBER

    @”Malala is her own person with her own views & achievements, regardless of her age.”

    Absolutely-and if you have followed her interviews & statements, you will know how much her father has influenced-and encouraged her.

    In last nights Panorama we heard him explaining how he spoke out to the fathers in Swat when the Taliban were in charge-telling them to educate their daughters because “they are extraordinary”.

    This is a very enlightened & brave man with an unbelievably courageous daughter who will do great things.



  30. @Charles, Amber

    It’s the colour of the shirts worn by losing FA Cup finalists.

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