Friday round up

Here are few bits and bobs for Friday afternoon.

  • The YouGov/Sun daily poll this morning had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. As we suspected yesterday, the Conservative boost from the referendum pledge has indeed faded away.
  • While we’re on that topic, Lord Ashcroft had some polling this morning on the same subject. It was taken over last weekend, so when the poll boost was at its height, and had voting intention figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7% (the polling appears to have been done by Populus, whose voting intention polls for the Times are becoming increasingly infrequent), but Ashcroft concludes, probably correctly, that it has not done much to change perceptions of the Conservative party.
  • Ipsos-MORI have put together a rather nice interactive graphic of their main polling between 2010-2012, which is worth a play with here.
  • And finally, some polling for Phil Cowley on the Nottingham Politics site, asking people what sort of MPs they wanted to see more or less of. The type of MP that the largest proportion of people say they want to see more is MPs who are local to the area they are representing, followed by more working class MPs. This does not, of course, mean that people will necessarily vote in a way to achieve that aim…

171 Responses to “Friday round up”

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  1. Mike Smithson [email protected]

    The latest YouGov has LAB lead down to 7%. CON 34: LAB 41: LD 12. No figures yet for Ukip

  2. @ Neil A

    Underneath it all I just don’t accept the “them and us” premise. The majority of people in Afghanistan and Mali, and probably in Somalia and Iraq too, share our views about Isla mist extre mism.
    I doubt they “share our views”; I will allow that they do not, necessarily, support the ‘terrorists’ but I’d think that the majority of people in Afghanistan and Mali, and probably in Somalia and Iraq too have their own views rather than sharing ours.

  3. @ Neil A

    I did respond to you but I think automod ‘dislikes’ a word or phrase therein.

  4. Neil A
    Yes, I meant to write police action, that is, one which is taken within the systems of criminal law and crime prevention. Al Qaeda’s actions are atrocities, maiming and murder, against civlilian or against the legitimate armed forces of national states, not acts of war, and their status should not be elevated to that of enemies in war.
    Pakistan’s military knew of Bin Laden’s presence and its location. Not to act within the civil system to get him arrested was to consolidate an unacceptable position in Pakistan in relation to the Afghan conflict in which powerful elements in the Pakistan military and Government find it convenient to foster the Taliban’s role and presence as an instrument for the spread of extreme Sharia practices, in Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan, without regard for the danger this poses for themselves and others internationally.

    My regard for you as a pea-artist is without parallel, but take is easy on Timbuktu – a far away place, and all that. To quote the UNESCO citation for its award of International Heritage status:

    It was an important centre for the diffusion of Islamic culture with the University of Sankore, with 180 Koranic schools and 25,000 students. It was also a crossroads and an important market place where the trading of manuscripts.

    Besides, this is serious stuff, in terms of the danger posed by the largely spurious inflaming of violence between religious and tribal groups in the region. It’s at the meeting point of marketing between the great belt of agricultrural and rain forest countries of tropial West Africa, from Gabon round to Senegal, most of which, by force of history have Sahelian and Saharan Muslim northern territories, constantly, in Northern Nigeria in particular falling into appalling inter-sectoral violence, increasingly driven by the stress on territorial possession and occupancy of over-population and environmental decline. The playing out of a fundamentalist Al-Qaeda intervention in the Saharan and Sahelian savannah areas of Mali and Niger which lie along their northern borders is hugely dangerous to the region. So the role and continued protection of the great though demographically tiny trading cities which lie along the fault line between the settled agricultural areas along the Niger and the Sahel, of which Timbuktu is the queen, is vital both to their cultural value and civic role, but also to the economies of the region.
    Thought you’ld like to know.

  5. @ Amber Star

    “Your point was that the FBI would’ve had to go through official channels. I was saying that your point was moot, given the military are also supposed to go through official channels but didn’t. The FBI, or a SWAT team, could’ve done the same as the military did, had they been provided with the necessary equipment.

    The potential legal consequences would probably have been less had the police decided to ‘arrest’ Bin Laden without a warrant. The military action was actually an act of war but Pakistan chose not to rise to the implied declaration of war which was inherent in the actions of the US military.”

    I respectfully disagree. An FBI team or SWAT team are not capable of pulling off the covert action that was neccessary for the mission. Well maybe LAPD SWAT could have done it. But aside from them, no normal law enforcement unit could have done this. This had to be a military operation.

    If we had gotten an arrest warrant for him or talked to the Pakistanis about it or told them we were coming, Bin Laden would have gotten away. Maybe it wasn’t ideal but it had to be done.

    Could you imagine what would have happenned had the Seals gone into Abbottobad and Bin Laden hadn’t been there?

  6. AMBER
    Thanks. Was that you beside me at Orleans?
    Ever an ardent student of the link between knowledge and poltitical intent, I have found the occasional savaging by dead sheep on this blog to be quite stimulating, and valuable in understanding where the moutons are coming from.
    On the make-up of the large land owner, military factions, government and religious right in Pakistan, for example, and their links with the Taleban; and on the effectiveness and legitimacy of options for confining, arresting and disempowering Bin Laden, it is valuable to judge how far Neil A’s views- or those of SOC LIB above, are based on evidence. Not much I should think. But do they tally with any similar levels of knowledge and understanding, or access to verifiable fact, in the thining and decisions of the US intelligence and military system. Quite a lot, I fear.

  7. Interesting to see that despite the Tory top-trump of an EU referendum the Labout vote in all the YouGov polls since has not dropped below 41%.

    Looking at this as a trend (which I suggest has greater accuracy than the exact numbers, when compared with other pollsters) does anyone think this shows a hardening of Labour support and a ‘softness’ to any improvement in the Tory vote, which has not exceeded 35%?

  8. @ Amber Star

    “Equality within marriage was required before marriage equality was possible. It’s a fairly recently development that married women have equal status with their husband in e.g. the UK tax system!”

    Yeah, I agree. Gender equality in the law will pave the way for sexual orientation equality. I wonder if that will be Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s final act.

    @ Man in the Middle

    He didn’t actually say that. That was a tv show but the quote was funny.

    I think people are entitled to associate with, believe in, and identify with any religion they’d like. And it’s none of my business as to whether they follow the religion properly or are in the right religion for them.

  9. Morning All. Does anyone have a working link for today’s YouGov tables?

  10. New EU poll (since Katie beat me to the YouGov one) –
    5 nations polled (GB, Germany, France, Denmark, Finland) –
    How would you vote in an in/out referendum?
    GB – In 38, Out 38, Net 0
    Germany – In 60, Out 25, Net +35
    France – In 49, Out 32, Net +17
    Denmark – In 57, Out 29, Net +28
    Finland – In 47, Out 33, Net +14

    Do you support the intervention in Mali?
    GB – Support 46, Oppose 16, Net +30
    Germany – Support 45, Oppose 40, Net +5
    France – Support 55, Oppose 33, Net +22
    Denmark – Support 48, Oppose 18, Net +30
    Finland – Support 36, Oppose 22, Net +16

    Is the EU better with Britain as part of it?
    GB – Better 62, Worse 14, Net +48
    Germany – 52, 25, +27
    France – 26, 37, -11
    Denmark – 64, 10, +54
    Finland – 63, 13, +50

    Do you think Britain will be in the EU in 10 years?
    GB – Remain 48, Leave 30, Net +18
    Germany – 40, 40, 0
    France – 33, 41, -8
    Denmark – 48, 29, +19
    Finland – 44, 30, +14

  11. Katie

    Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 1st – 3rd February – CON 34%, LAB 41%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%

    UKIP on 8.

    Can’t open table.

  12. Tinged

    Thank you-most thoughtful !

    Birgitte Nyborg called a GE when she was 0.2% ahead in the Polls, last night.

    Wonder if DC watched it ?

  13. Thanks Tinged!

  14. Some interesting bits from the polling that I missed –

    Which of the following best reflects your view?
    All religions and churches should be made to conduct same-sex marriages – 9%
    All religions should be given the legal power to conduct same-sex marriages if they wish – 40%
    Religions that want to be able to conduct same-sex marriages should be able to, but the law should stop same-sex marriages from happening in the places of worship of religions that oppose them – 24%
    No churches should be able to conduct same-sex marriages – 20%

    So 73% for the legal right to gay marriages in churches, for those churches that want to perform gay marriages (or a law preventing gay marriage in churches that don’t, which amounts to the same thing really).

    Same-sex marriage makes you think how about Cameron?
    More positively – 19
    Less positively – 18
    No difference – 55

    Do you think Cameron is genuine about his support for gay marriage?
    Genuine – 25 (+4)
    Not – 57 (-6)

    Do you support/oppose sending troops to help with training in Mali?
    Support – 38
    Oppose – 42

    One part that really surprised me –
    Do you support/oppose the HS2?
    Support – 41%
    Oppose – 43%
    The surprising bit?
    Con voters – Support 54, Oppose 33
    Lab voters – Support 37, Oppose 49
    2010 Con – Support 48, Oppose 38
    2010 Lab – Support 36, Oppose 48
    I would have thought Lab supporters would have been more for stimulus spending (esp as Labour fully backs HS2) and Con voters having more NIMBY concerns.

    So HS2 might not be as damaging to the Cons, from their ‘traditional support’, as I thought it would be – and given the positive economic impact to the north, perhaps will be good for them politically.

  15. Err… should have pointed out this first –
    Do you support/oppose gay marriage?
    Total support – 55% (nc)
    Total oppose – 36% (nc)

    So I wonder if the difference between the 55% and 73% is that some people would support gay marriage but are worried that churches will be forced to perform them.

  16. Colin

    Why tell everyone this? Many of us may have not watched Borgen last night!!

  17. Sorry if I’m encroaching on someone else’s territory, but

    NEW THREAD :-)

  18. @John Pilgrim,

    In light of your clearly very detailed knowledge and understanding of the world’s issues, I am surprised you’re wasting your time contributing here when you could be out solving them.

    Calling your opponents “ignorant” is an old and lazy tactic.

  19. @ Robin

    LOL :-)

  20. Tinged

    I suppose that support for HS2 will be dependent on two things, one) how likely you are to ever use the high-speed trains and two) how much you will be affected by the construction aspect. I guess that people that are likely to use this train more than once will see a huge practical benifit but folk that don’t see themselves using the trains will consider it a huge waste of money

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