The first YouGov/Sun daily poll of the year was out this morning. Topline figures were CON 31%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9%. Usual caveats about polling over holidays (the start of the fieldwork was on New Year’s Day) but that aside it looks very much in line with YouGov’s polling from before the Christmas break.

18 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 43, LD 11, UKIP 9”

  1. New Thread for New Year. First here? Happy New Year to all UKPR men and women.

    I am wondering what events will serve to nudge the tory VI towards the high 30’s.

  2. Thank you Anthony for all the work.

  3. ChrisLane:

    I am supposed to be the new thread monitor.

    Happy New Year anyway.

    Average 12 point lead for the year so far.

    Thank you.
    Out of Moderation are you? Good news.

    Usual caveat about high LD figure as we start 2013.

  5. Chrislane:

    Looking at the council byelections from 2012 and am not certain that the decline inLD VI can be looked at as evenly spread. It would appear that where they have been strong in Tory /LD seats they are holding up quite well but else where they appear to have fallen off an electoral cliff. On balance they might actually be saved by FPTP in 2015 as their votes pile up in their sourthern seat and vanish every where eslse.

    The question list begs is who do they attack the Tories who they are fighting, in the hope thsat left leaning voters in LD/Tory seats hold there nose and vote for them to keep out a Tory, or do they attack Labour and claw votes from the Tories?

    Not an aesy call. If it was me I would still be looking to pick up the Labour vote in Ld seats and hope that tactical voting holds up.


    Sorry was going to put the link into the last post

  7. Chris:

    “out of moderation”

    never been in,,,,,,,,it was just technical anyway.

  8. Just a query form a simple layman when it comes to politics and VI. The accepted theory from the right wing of politics last year seems to suggest that Labour need to do a lot better than 10-12% margin now to be sure of achieving sufficient support at the next GE. That the current gap is mere mid term blues for the governing party. My view is that the 10-12% is more deeply entrenched in the psyche of the nation than some are prepared to admit. I wonder what the view is of commentators here.

  9. thewash:

    For impartial, detailed analysis TOH is the guy to ask.

  10. The wash

    It all depends on your political leanings, but most commentators here believe that old adage don’t apply in this new political landscape

  11. My own feeling is that an overall Con majority can be discounted, any majority for them is unlikely and that labour will form the next government.

    My reasons have been repeated a number of times but the LD collapse to labour and the decllining con vote are the two most important. EM is much more astute than most realised also, in my opinion

  12. @The Wash

    Not only do I not think it’s mid-term blues… I question the very premise that “mid-term blues” exists.

    Look at the historical graphs over on the right. A pronounced mid-term depression and recovery hasn’t been evident for the most recent governments.

    It is my assumption that “mid-term blues” was an artefact of flawed polling, rather than a true cyclic effect. A combination of failing to adjust representative shaping, and reduced sampling during the mid-terms. No such effect was ever ‘real’ other than it was a failing of less robust polling practices than we have now.

    At the moment, I’m going to suggest that the polling is currently quite sound and solid.

  13. Often when Labour have been in this position, appearing far ahead in the mid-term, only for the lead to vanish once an election is in sight, it’s made up of Conservative-Labour swing votes. This time Labour has picked up very few of these swing votes, so if they did all go back, it would not be a big loss for Labour.

    Most of their lead is due to the effects of the LD’s going into coalition with the Conservatives and the aftereffects of that decision, clouding their self-representation as a centre-left party.
    Who knows when that swing will go back – I guess getting out of government will start the process, but it won’t all flood back instantly.

    Another smaller part of that lead is due to UKIP attracting some of the Conservative right. If Labour are still in sight of a landslide in two years then that’s going to be irrelevant, but if the election is tight, then that could decide it.

    It seems the polls are stuck fast – only good or bad economic news could shift it – I can’t see much prospect of good news for a while.

  14. @jayblanc – not quite sure you should be too dismissive of past ‘mid term blues’. I suspect the reason we haven’t seen this phenomenon recently is that it’s not actually anything to do with mid terms as such, but is more coincident with economic factors.

    I think it probably became entrenched in polling watchers minds during the Thatcher/Major years, which were largely typified by well timed elections with recessions of major economic embarrassments falling early in parliaments natural lives. Blair didn’t suffer from this, as there were no recessions.

    There is, I think, a likelihood that the economy will feel slightly better in 2015, but as this is no ordinary recession, it’s equally true that the likely level of growth is not going to feed into the rampant feel good factor that Tory governments managed in earlier times.

    So to go back to @Thewash’s original post, there is bound to be an element of mid termism about the current polling position, but equally we perhaps shouldn’t expect an overly dramatic swing back to the government, as it’s unlikely they will be able to engineer a mini (or a major) boom in time for 2015.

    I would also concur with others who foresee Lab tactical votong for Lib Dems in Lib Dem/Con marginals. This habit will die hard, and I simple don’t see thousands of Lab supporters offering a chance to Tories.

    I still think it’s probably likely we’ll see a hung parliament with Lab as the biggest party, but my range of options goes from Con as only just the biggest party, with sufficient Lib Dems to swing either way, to a substantial Lab majority. I can’t, at this stage, construct a mental scenario with a Tory majority.

    Unless Kirchner decides to invade the Falklands.

  15. Thanks to all who responded to my query re the current 10-12% gap between Labour and Conservative. To add to my view given above, I think The right of centre and beyond, in this country, are underestimating both EM and what appears to be the long-term strategy of Labour which could be characterised as ‘slowly, slowly catchee monkey’.

    It is true that given positive changes in the economic landscape in Europe and further afield which might affect our own economy, the coalition may benefit but it seems to me that time is running out for that.

    Events, of course could change things radically but that has potential to work both ways. I cannot help feel that the recent Tory attacks on Labour’s achievements or otherwise with benefits in their 13 years is part of preparing the electorate for the considerable changes to these benefits starting in April and for when the Universal Credit scheme kicks in (which, if reading the runes is correct, is in trouble).

  16. The Wash,

    In previous parliaments the Governing party has lost VI in mid term polls to the LDs. So Lab 2009 or Con 1996 were in mid 20s and sometimes lower.
    Much of this went home to Lab or Cons at the GE. (97 had more than usual direct Con-Lab switchers so a bit of an exception)

    This time some disgruntled Cons who would never vote Lab (or UKIP) do not have LD as a viable option due to them being in Government with the same Cons they are unhappy with. Hence these are either DK or reluctant cons; as nearly all of these would have gone back to cons at the GE anyway it matter little for strategy.

    The pincer movement of returning support from the centre for the Governing party and a decline in the oppositions VI as they are scrutinised more only has the latter happening.
    Much of the post 2010 UKIP growth in VI will swing behind the Tories at the GE of course and much of their 2010 Tory vote now saying DK will revert (ICM assume 50% which is fair) taking the Cons to 36-37% in a mythical GE tomorrow already.

    I personally expect a drop in Lab support as the GE approaches and a combination of scrutiny and disappointing some erstwhile support takes effect. Plus many DKs back to Cons and some to LDs effectively reduces Lab VI with most pollsters.

    Typically the fall in oppositions apparent support has been 10-20% of a consistent mid-term (not peak) VI, cons circa44-37% for example.

    This is why many of on here think the key measure is Lab VI not the lead. At current levels imo we can expect Labour to fall back to 35-37% at the GE giving another hung parliament with most seats close, although Lab would be favourites.

    If Labour edge over 45% for a sustained (non specific event driven) period the chances of an OM increases as 38-39% given FPTP and current boundaries may be enough. Personally I doubt it but am satisfied with the current VI as being enough to deny the cons an OM.

    LDs holding up better in LD/Con marginals due to hold your nose ABTs and collapsing in Lab/Con marginals breaking at least 2-1 for Lab is another factor we could throw in to the mix as well… and then there is Scotland and their ABT voting habits.

  17. The first real opportunity all disgruntled LD voters will have to show their feelings about the parliamentary party propping up a right of centre government will actually be the next GE.

    To anticipate a switch back until after this (if at all) is wishful thinking.

  18. IMO Labour are n benefiting from a long-term change in the character of the left wing, which I judge to be international, and to be bolstered by demographic and educational change, towards a combining of socialist left and liberal left. This is notably in the homing instincts of a humanist rationalism most evident in the policies of the liberal/liberal democratic pursuit of freedom of information, human and working rights and continuous reform of electoral and cameral systems and public sector or public sector guided investment in employment generation. A consequence is the inevitable movement away from dogmatic Harvard School capitalism, and from faith based Christianity – as against a demotic Christian morality and adherence – as a basis of political organisation or p­­­­olicy management, notably in foreign affairs and defence. The creation of the coalition and Clegg’s continued assertion of LD support for a government of the right in pursuit,, not of these values, but of pragmatic political gains and a seat at high table, have been a permanent marking of the territory, locating the liberal left in Labour and an expected Labour Government.