Polls tonight

The summer is normally pretty light when it comes to polls. Conference season is normally the opposite – I’m expecting rather a lot of polls in the Sunday papers. It’s confirmed that there will be a ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday, the weekly YouGov poll in the Sunday Times and an Opinium poll in the Observer.

Martin Boon of ICM was tweeting yesterday that some new ICM figures were forthcoming, so assume we’ll be getting them in one of the papers (they normally poll for the Sunday Telegraph, but Martin said there was a double helping so perhaps there is something else to come as well), and I believe there may also be a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday.

I won’t be around much tonight, but feel free discuss the figures as they come in and I will do an update when I can.


43 Responses to “Polls tonight”

  1. I waited about 30 minutes & I’m still 1st. :-)

  2. “Feast or polls tonight”

    Expect to see some wildly disparate numbers then :-)

  3. My Nanny who lives in Brighton got a shock when she went to use one of the phone boxes along the waterfront only to discover the Lib/dems had taken it for their conference.

  4. @ Crossbat11 & Graham, last thread.

    Rallings & Thrasher state that 19% of votes cast in May 2010 were postal ones. Many of these were handed in at polling stations on the day of the election but most [?] were submitted some days before polling day? Those voting in the latter category were presumably more under the “spell” of Cleggmania, & hence more likely to vote Lib-Dem, than the 81% of voters who voted when the Lib-Dem “surge” had subsided. Cleggmania may therefore have had a not insignificant effect on the election even if by May 6th it was a spent force.

  5. ComRes for S Mirror/IoS: Con 35% LAb 39% LD 10% UKIP 8% Other 8% http://ht.ly/dUK7I

  6. I thought Cleggys speech just now was actually quite good. To the two Eds:

    “Piece of paper that is still blank after two years” / “tell the country what you are for”.

    A shame it takes the LD leader to point out this truism and the necessity for Labour to set out their own inevitably non-left wing platform = I can’t wait- I’ll finally be able to give EdM my wholehearted support while some on here start to slag him off :-)

    That Labour bashing rhetoric aside his speech really was that of the centre left (“equality…community”) rather than the centre right Cameroonian love-in of the first 18 month.

    “You didn’t win the election”

    The Tory right must be seething: especially when they look longingly at the platform/ polemicism of the UKIP. What WILL they say at the Tory conference?

    Interesting times.

  7. 3% of those polled think Clegg is good in a crisis

  8. That ComRes for S Mirror/IoS would be:

    Con 35%(+2), LAb 39%(-3), LD 10%(n/c), UKIP 8%(n/c)

    compared to the August 17th poll.

  9. Okay, I think the Observer has announced the Opinium poll for this week:

    CON 30% LAB 42% LD 8% (less than UKIP, but UKIP not given)

    The actual poll outcome is right at the bottom of the article, couched in vebiage:

    Unsurprisingly, Clegg’s party remains rooted to the bottom of the overall opinion polls, with just 8% of those likely to vote saying they will support the Lib Dems, who have now slipped behind Ukip. The Conservatives are on 30%, behind Labour on 42%.

    Here’s the link to the article itself.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/22/observer-launches-opinium-observer-poll

  10. ‘My Nanny who lives in Brighton got a shock when she went to use one of the phone boxes along the waterfront only to discover the Lib/dems had taken it for their conference.’

    Only to discover the the Tories had vandalised it and urinated on the floor.

  11. ComRes, I am taking with a pinch of salt until somebody like Roger Mexico &/or Phil have worked their way through the detail.

    If my memory serves me, in the past ComRes released a headline poll with a significant error – which they owned up to.

    Another time, I think I recall ComRes releasing a poll which seemed to have an error; they claimed it was a methodology change/ adjustment but which nobody could ‘audit’ to check the assumptions & whether they’d been accurately applied.
    8-)

  12. If the Opinium poll has Labour on a 12 point lead consistent with other recent polls, ComRes would seem to be oddly out of whack – looks like an outlier.

  13. This section of the Observer article doesn’t make sense to me; perhaps I’m not reading it correctly.

    David Cameron remains the political leader with the biggest **net approval rating: 32% compared with Ed Miliband’s 25% and Nick Clegg’s 13%. But the number of those who disapprove of the prime minister is higher than the opposition leader, giving Miliband the smaller overall net rating of -14% compared with Cameron’s -20%. Clegg’s overall net rating is far worse at -48%.

    **[do they really mean net here? I think they ought to have said positive, otherwise what follows doesn’t seem to make sense]

  14. Amber

    The graphic says UKIP on 10%.

    Ex 2010 LD voters split 39% Lab, 10% Green, 8% Con, 8% UKIP.

  15. Amber

    Agreed. The journo doesn’t understand what “net” means. The error is repeated in the graphic.

  16. Big John
    Billy Bob
    Amber

    Thankyou for keeping us updated.
    The ComRes result does look odd.

  17. Nick Clegg’s plan to block Conservative plans for Westminster boundary changes receives huge support from delegates

    A motion cementing Clegg’s decision by instructing MPs to vote against the proposed boundary changes received huge support from conference delegates.
    8-)

  18. @ Old Nat

    Thank you, I see the UKIP 10% now; it’s in a tiny comment at the bottom right of the expanded graphic beside a picture of Nigel Farage.

    Well spotted you. :-)

  19. In a swipe at those Lib Dem Lords who oppose reform, the motion also stipulates that future Lib Dem peers will have to sign a pledge saying they support reform before they can go to the Lords.
    ——————
    OMG, the LibDems are still putting their faith in pledges! ;-)

  20. Amber

    ” the LibDems are still putting their faith in pledges!”

    Well, there was a strong teetotal tradition in the old Liberal Party! That was built on drunks “signing the pledge” to abhor the demon alcohol!

  21. Rob – my GC meeting today for the first time this parliament was calling for more policy. Generally a recognition that up to know saying little has been on balance about right but now we need to move on.
    I raised EB/EMs position on Public Sector pay as an example of how we need to be credible and disciplined in our approach and keep dissent as far as possible in-house. Sadly the response confirms your view about the slagging off that will be recieved as I think you mean ‘on here’ as short-hand for many LP members/supporters.

    There are many in TGMOO who think that Goverenment unpopularity will be enough and whilst of course we know ‘Governments lose Elections oppositions don’t win them’ there has to be a minimum level of appeal for the opposition to win (or even become the largest party)

  22. The Observer has now put up a helpful graphic:

    http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/09/22/Opiniumpoll.jpg

    @AmberStar

    > …stipulates that future Lib Dem peers will have to sign a pledge saying they support reform before they can go to the Lords

    I suspect that would be illegal. They could withdraw the whip from Lords who wouldn’t sign, but putting preconditions on nominations would impact the ‘independence’ of that part of Parliament.

  23. @ The Sheep

    Ha! In other words, a ‘sham’ PR pledge which isn’t worth the paper it’s signed on.
    8-)

  24. THESHEEP

    “I suspect that would be illegal.”

    So, would it be illegal for a party to have a policy not to nominate any of its members for the Lords?

  25. ComRes show a real tightening, with the Labour lead halving from 10% to 5%, yet Opinium show their biggest Labour lead (12%), so far this year. I await ICM and YouGov with baited breath!!

    The Opinium data on the leadership ratings is interesting and may suggest why it might be a bit premature to to conclude that Cameron has an unassailable and decisive advantage over Miliband. Far more people have a definite view of Cameron’s performance, with many more expressing either approval or disapproval. Miliband has a much higher proportion of “don’t knows”, giving him better net approval ratings than Cameron (-14 vs -20). In other words, these figures are basically stating the bleedin’ obvious again; after two years in the job Miliband is still an unknown quantity in many people’s minds. This cuts two ways of course. Glass half empty man says he’s failed to make much of an impact and, where he has, it’s been more of a negative one than positive. Bad boy Ed; must try harder. Glass half full man comes along and says that there’s plenty of scope here to turn things around and continue a slowly improving trend. Not so bad boy Ed; keep buggering on, as Christopher Soames once famously said. Quite often, it’s the only way in politics. I am of course using my verb metaphorically, not literally!

  26. So COMRES has Con 35%(+2), LAb 39%(-3), LD 10%(n/c), UKIP 8%(n/c) and Opinium has CON 30% (-2) LAB (+2) 42% LD 8% (-2).

    If the first two polls are anything to go by, no strong evidence of any significant movement in the polls.

  27. Amber

    Opinium may be referring to Net rating within their own Party. If you look at the figures in their last poll:

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-september

    these were +67%, +39%, + 31% for Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. However Miliband ‘led’ in having the least worst Net rating in general.

  28. The Telegraph is reporting:

    The ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph puts Mr Cable, who has not ruled himself out as a future leader, 11 points ahead of Mr Clegg among voters of all parties. Among Lib Dem supporters, Mr Cable’s lead is seven per cent.

    The ICM poll sees their projected share of the vote for the Lib Dems at the next general election increase by one point from last month to 18 per cent – a higher figure than they achieve in most surveys.

    Overall the “Wisdom Index” poll – which asks voters to predict the next election result rather than which party they support – puts Labour on 37 per cent, and the Tories on 31 per cent. Labour’s lead is cut by one point from last month.

  29. Overall the “Wisdom Index” poll puts Labour on 37 per cent, and the Tories on 31 per cent. Labour’s lead is cut by one point from last month.
    ———————-
    Thanks, Roger.

    I actually quite like the Wisdom Index for one reason – the general public appear to think that Ed M will be Prime Minister; if they thought not, the Wisdom Index is their opportunity to air that view, regardless of how they, as an individual, plan to vote.
    8-)

  30. I love to read all your comments every day; it has become an addiction…

    Over the last few days I keep coming across a growing rumour on the internet that Israel is planning an imminent (well fairly) military strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

    If the rumour is true then it is likely that the UK could be drawn into a conflict

    What effect (if any) do you guys (and girls) think any such conflict would have on VI and approval ratings in general?

    Whilst I am here , A big thank you to all the commenters on this site for managing to keep me genuinely excited on a daily basis about the publication of a mere 3 (or so) numbers.

  31. Apart from the LDs on 18, the Telegraph appears to be keeping the ICM VI under its hat until the Sunday edition is published… the suspense is killing me! ;-)

  32. These have appeared on twitter fwiw:

    Survation Con 30%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%.

    YouGov/The Sunday Times Poll- Con 34%, Lab 41%, LD 9%.

  33. I knew I was tempting fate saying we hadn’t seen a 7% Labour lead on YouGov for ten weeks.

    10, 12, 9, 12, 6 and 7 on consecutive YouGovs.

  34. “Growing rumours on the Internet”

    Like the rumours that George Galloway has received revelations from the angel Gabriel; or Iran is about to appoint a minister for women’s rights; or the scholarly Imans of the ummah have declared an Islamic reformation 600 years after Christendom’s own; or the UN is about to send peace keepers to the Middle East to protect the oppressed Coptic populations of a variety of majority Muslim countries…?

    Best to ignore Internet rumours and wait to see what actually happens in the real world.

  35. Binyamin Netanyahu has been a close personal friend of Mitt Romney’s since the 1970s… it is not just the internet, you will find articles all over the mainstream press speculating about an Israeli strike, but then you will find journalists writing these articles on a monthly basis all year, for many years. There has been more strident language coming out Tel Aviv and Tehran in recent days.

    Netanyahu has been campaigning for Romney to become President… in which case anything is possible – but would he really be capable of precipitating a crisis now, before the election?

  36. Billy Bob – Twitter is the font of all bullshit. Both those figures are (probably*) wrong.

    Those Survation figures are from their poll in the Daily Mirror this morning or yesterday, the poll that is due in the Mail on Sunday is a different poll.

    Those YouGov figures are the control question with leaders in a hypothetical match up. The headline voting intention figures are not available yet, but the Sunday Times political editor has tweeted that they show a nine point Labour lead.

    (*Survation could be right if their two polls have identical results, of course)

  37. Thanks AW… I did think of naming the twitterer – perhaps wiser not to have giiven him the benefit of the doubt then (fwiw, sweet fanny adams). ;)

  38. No real change in the polls by the looks of things – COMRES showing a narrowing in the lead, Yougov (if 9% is right) is showing the average Yougov Labour lead or thereabouts, Opinium is showing a widening in the lead (but still with the MOE).

  39. @Rob Sheffield

    Do you really have to propagate your anti-Muslim prejudice on a polling site?

    Also why does a religion without a hierachy over the interpretation of scripture need a reformation?

    You really must do better.

  40. Anthony has started a lovely new thread with all tonight’s polls so far. He’s as much a poll ‘addict’ as the rest of us; even tho’ it’s his day job, he just couldn’t stay away for even a single weekend. :-)

  41. @”Also why does a religion without a hierachy over the interpretation of scripture need a reformation?”

    So that it can respect women as individuals & stop treating them as male chattels .

  42. @AW

    “Billy Bob – Twitter is the font of all bullshit.”

    Please give FaceBook a little credit. ;)

  43. ‘So that it can respect women as individuals & stop treating them as male chattels .’

    What a comment to make in public. Best keep that sort of thing for the golf club bar, old chap.