YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures tonight of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. A Labour lead of twelve points, again pretty typical of YouGov’s daily polls for the last week or two.

Tonight’s poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly question on who would make the best Prime Minister. David Cameron is on 31%(-1), Ed Miliband 21%(-3), Nick Clegg 5%(+1), Don’t know 43%(+2).


160 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 44, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Peter

    We would just have issued a European Arrest Warrant. Mind you, I’m not sure why it took 7 police officers to arrest Coulson – maybe 2 to do the arrest, and the other 5 to film the proceedings so that the tapes could be handed over to BBC Scotland at some point?

  2. @Lefty,

    Perhaps they should have had a German economist on the program to explain why spending his great-grandchildren’s inheritence on bailing out tax-avoiding Greek civil servants is unacceptable.

    The point is that austerity isn’t the cause of the crisis. It isn’t a solution to the crisis either. It is simply a symptom of the crisis. The idea that austerity promotes growth is patently silly, but it is a little bit of a straw man (although I accept that DC and GO did play their part in that). The core argument for reducing the deficit is that if we don’t then in the long run we may struggle to find sources of credit. And the recent debate about the correlation between growth and bond rates in the UK completely misses the point. Certainly when a country is in recession, capital flies to government bonds if they are a safe investment. If the UK’s ability to service her deficit were called into question, the investors currently buying our bonds would buy someone else’s instead. Greece and Spain have negative growth, but I don’t see any matching fall in their borrowing costs.

    I don’t think anyone has really identified a solution to the problem that doesn’t involve, in effect, a Communist revolution in the countries concerned. Personally I think we’ve all (and I include myself in this) stored up a lot of pain for ourselves and the painkillers will wear off sooner or later. Prosperity will return, one day. But it may be a decade away.

  3. @OldNat,

    I think having seven officers is a consequence of the Barnett Formula. For a task that four English officers would perform, the Scottish Government has funding for three more……

    ;)

  4. @Neil A

    “But it may be a decade away”

    Seems optimistic to me.

  5. @ Neil A

    Mr Coulson, who is a former editor of the News of the World, was detained early yesterday morning after officers from Scotland Yard and Strathclyde Police arrived at his south-east London home at 6.30am to escort him north for questioning at Govan police station in Glasgow.
    ————————————–
    The 7 officers were not all from Glasgow.
    8-)

  6. Good Morning everyone.

    Big days ahead in UK Politics

  7. @ Old Nat

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMzTcvXk1j4&feature=related

    Was this you back in the day? (Faking an English accent of course).

  8. oldnat

    “Mind you, I’m not sure why it took 7 police officers to arrest Coulson”

    Perhaps they reckoned at least half the coppers were probably in News International’s pocket and they reckoned that they needed at least seven to make the odds on one being honest a wee bit better.

  9. I’m going to defend the Government (gulp).

    First I reckon there can’t be anything more against Hunt so he will stick to his “I was scrupously fair” line and get away with it. That will leave Cameron a problem but it might avoid a resignation. Hunt might resign anyway and say “I should have given clearer direction to Smith”.

    Second, on austerity. It’s possible that the Government are just spouting austerity just to reassure the markets and they know full well they need to switch to massive infrastructure and other job creating policies, as well as VAT, possibly petrol and low end pay cuts (together with high value property taxes?. They may well have to stop sacking public servants if they need to patrol the borders (unless they really want Serco doing it). But they can’t say any of it, cos they want the markets onside.

    They need to time it right when sentiment switches. Or possibly they know that they will have to go to the country and lose and watch Labour spend.

    That way they can preserve their ideology. Who knows?

    What I am saying is that the biggest u-turn of all is coming, from austerity to growth, but don’t expect the Government to label it clearly!

  10. We are in agreement there NICKP, will be amusing to see how they try to spin it.

  11. @ NIck P

    You are presuming the markets are easily fooled. If the government switch to plan B, while stating that they are still following plan A, it will not convince the people who study all the financial details in a forensic way.

    The point is that the UK is not in the Eurozone and is therefore seen as a safe haven of sorts. Also when the financial crisis hit in 2007/08 the then government took pretty drastic action to put banks on a more stable footing. Some countries in Europe did not tackle issues with their banks and are only doing so now. e.g Spain with Banksia. The UK could afford to bail out their banks, but relatively poor countries like Spain will struggle, without help from their Eurozone partners.

    Being that 50% of the UK’s trade is with EU countries, we will be adversely affected by another downturn within the EZ area. While we can borrow at a low level of interest, we should be bold and set up some form of investment bank to help UK businesses. It is possible that RBS could be used for this purpose, as the government still own 80%+ and if they help RBS earn more, then when the government sells its shares, they might get their money back or make a profit.

    I don’t really care about the politics of the situation, as all that is important is making the right decisions in the long term interests of the country. Perhaps Cameron and Clegg should invite all Westminster parties into the coalition, so that they have some form of united approach to the key challenges the country faces. It won’t happen, as we are so entrenched in tribal politics.

  12. @Nickp
    Shrewd observation IMO. Maybe GO could have his cake and eat it. Keep up the huffing and puffing about cuts, but look the other way when targets are not met. I expect a gradual U-turn but I am not sure how many years it will take for the feel-good factor to return.

  13. Morning All,

    On last nights polls – looks like the double digit leads are stable whilst the government continue with their comedy pratfalls and their attempts to do a u-turn every day.

    On Leveson today – I am a bit confused as to what Leveson’s role is vis a vis Hunt’s job. He has already said it is not up to the inquiry to determine whether JH broke the MC. But presumably most of the questioning will revolve around this question …. SO … will Leveson end the proceedings along the lines of “IMO there is a case that the MC may have been broken … it is now for others to decide whether that is the case.” Or will that be simply left hanging in the air with the probably repeated comment from Jay QC, “Can you see how this gives the impression of impropriety?”. “You can see that you have already broken the MC” (JH response, “No I can’t see that.”)

    As the MC says a Minister is responsible for the behaviour of his special advisors, and now that we already know AS closeness to N\ews Corp went massively beyond what would have been an appropriate, I can’t see how in the narrow legalistic terms so beloved of judges there is not already a prima facie case to answer (which therefore needs to be investigated by Sir Jeremy H).

  14. @NeilA

    I would go further…..What cuts? Public expenditure is still growing. What is needed is really deep cuts into the state sector, the money released being used to cut corporation tax and Natinal Insurance rates.

  15. The Home office are putting out a press realease with an example of why a 20% cut in police budgets does not need to lead to cuts on front-line services.
    They are using an example of a joint arrest between Strachclyde Police and the Met to arrest a non violent person with 7 officers; they are saying this could have been done with just 4 which is around 40% :-)

  16. On the Doctors strike:

    Terrible news, first time since the 70s, right? I think it´s a combination of inequality in pensions, and Government refusing to listen to professions. Clearly the medical profession were against the NHS bill, and were resoundly ignored. However, there ARE serious inequalities in Doctors pension schemes. I don´t have the exact figures on hand, but senior civil servants will be paying roughly 7.5% into their pension scheme, whilst Doctors will be paying 14.5%.

    I´m also interested in seeing that a paper has finally picked up on the inability of poorer students to attend medical schools, particularly after the fees rise. I´m beginning medical school in September as a mature student, and I will be paying the new fees UP FRONT (which was something we were assured students wouldn´t have to do) and I fully expect to be buried in loans and suvive of plain pasta.

    Huge changes in perception of the Government, and I think slowly but surely the tide may be ebbing for the SNP too.

  17. Neil A
    “Perhaps they should have had a German economist on the program to explain why spending his great-grandchildren’s inheritence on bailing out tax-avoiding Greek civil servants is unacceptable.”

    With respect, that wouldn’t have been much help. That would be a discussion of morality whereas what is now needed is pragmatic politico-economic solutions.

    The current Spanish crisis pretty much blows out of the water the claim that Greece can be quarantined and its leaving the Euro would not cause contagion. So, one way or another, Germans and their grand kids are going to take a massive hit. Either the Euro collapses, or they have to accept communalisation of debt. Rock and hard place for Germany. That’s the economic reality, whatever the morality (and I have my own opinions on that – given that Germany drove through a flawed Euro concept and benefitted greatly from it, they are hardly blameless for the current shambles).

    The huge philosophical issue on the agenda is that, as both Krugman and Rogoff both said last night, one of the key things required to sort out EZ debt is inflation. Is Germany prepared to finally put its Weimar ghosts to bed and accept this? Or does it prefer to drive the Euro to its grave?

  18. Hunt’s defence will be that after much prevarication he decided to consult OfCom, but that was only after NI had agreed a plan to circumvent objections – with a temporary hiving off of Sky News.
    NI also let it be known that they would batter OfCom into submission by judicial review, dent its credibility, and hasten its demise… another longterm objective.

  19. Regarding the Jubilee I have not noticed any enthusiasm for it.

    I think this may be because I move in relentlessly low class circles, though.

    I don’t think anyone would change their political opinions because of it. We are all far too cynical for that.

  20. ‘Public expenditure is still growing. What is needed is really deep cuts into the state sector, the money released being used to cut corporation tax and Natinal Insurance rates.’

    This is ideology, isn’t it? Do you have any reasons to suppose this will be a benefit to us all?

    I understand you want this to happen, but do you know why you want it, except that it ‘should’ happen? What good will it do us in practical terms?

    So long as political opinion is just a question of arbitrary positions continually asserted without proper explanation we will get nowhere.

    It is always easy to ‘go further’ but when are you going to explain why you want to, what exactly is wrong with the status quo that will be solved by such untried and extreme policy?

  21. My gut take on the sources and sustainability of swing between Lab and Con:
    Sustainability quotient out of 10
    Core vote: Lab 35% 7
    Con 25%
    (diminishing with aging population and unpopularity with 2010 Con voters, white collar unemploymtn in London and the South)

    Policies:
    Austerity v. growth: No brainer 7
    Lab 75%
    Con 25%
    Public Services: 7
    Lab 55%
    Con 25%
    Welfare, pensions and fiscal support for families: 7
    Lab 55%
    Con 25%

    EDB (Events Dear Boy), sleaze and press relations: 5
    Lab 55% (Remains a potential threat – get Lancaster on the team for future behaviour in the Commons bars?)
    Con 20%

    So – core vote sustainable through 2/3 GEs, policies also sustainable, especially if met with high unemployment and low growth through 2015, when Labour monetary easing, fiscal and Keynsian public infrastructure and housing will kick in a long-term investment and economic stimulus, plus favourable trade and financial services to burgeoning China and emerging states economies, and re-election of Obama, massive Labour fund raising, membership and social media campaigns and TU support.

  22. MIKEMS.
    Thank you for the post.

    Hence ED and Ed have their chance, since clearly a cut govt spending radically agenda is not correct.

  23. tee hee. I’m sorry but I can’t help chuckling at this from Hunt at Levenson:

    Hunt is asked whether he hid behind a tree to avoid being spotted at a party at which James Murdoch was present.

    Hunt says he spotted a large group of media journalists outside the entrance and thought “this is not the time to have an impromptu interview and so I moved into a different quadrangle”.

    “There may or may not have been trees,” Hunt adds, before Leveson urges Jay to move on.

  24. @NickP and R Huckle,

    I think there is a likelihood of a decision to boost infrastructure spending, but less so any U turn on core government expenditure.

    Housing is the obvious candidate, as there is a clear need for the infrastructure and the business is fairly efficient and the profits and employment “local”. That leaves me uneasy because the last thing I want to see is hundreds of thousands of new homes on greenfield sites, but economically is probably the best course. I’d prefer to see any spending split between completely new housing and a program of renewal and rebuilding for some of our worst areas of social housing. 1960s housing, whilst decayed and ugly, is often quite low density. There is some scope for demolishing whole tracts of it and replacing it with far more pleasant housing whilst simultaneously increasing housing density by building narrower, taller houses and reducing garden size. A lot of this kind of work has already been done (most of London’s tower block estates, for example – although there the density was obviously reduced) and Plymouth’s North Prospect development.

    Infrastructure spending takes a while to actually appear in the economy, but I suspect that simply the knowledge that it was on its way would provide a confidence boost that might trigger some growth.

  25. Nick P;

    Mr Hunt looks to be in some trouble, according the BBC man Mr Robinson

  26. I know we are not supposed to speculate, but surely Hunt is dead already and it’s only 11.00?

  27. How many errs and uhms can Hunt fit into a sentence?!!

  28. Blimey,

    Hunt sinking fast and they haven’t even got to the bit where he took over the bid. Looking at the tweets from the newspaper editors, it seems universally felt that he is not looking that safe.

    DC said that things would change if “new evidence was found to show …” and there’s been plenty already. Not sure he’ll have much choice but to refer the question to Sir Jeremy Heywood about whether the Ministerial Code was broken.

  29. I can’t see how hunt can survive this, it’s a car crash.

  30. Given the style of Robinson’s blog today, one wonders why Hunt needed to turn up at Leveson. Every paragraph of the blog starts off with “I understand that he will be asked…” or “He is likely to respond…”

    Bloody hell, but I feel old. News used to be about reporting what HAD happened, not telling us what was going to happen.

    I’m waiting for the article on the morning of England’s final Euro2012 game which states “We understand that England will today fight a valiant rearguard action. We are led to believe that Wayne Rooney will detonate a person-borne IED after an opponent shakes his hand in a disrespectful manner. Rooney, we believe, will be sent off (more accurately, swept up and disposed of). According to our sources, England will then fight like lions before posing in a penalty shootout, with John Terry missing the final spot kick, but striking the statue of Lenin in the square 3 km from the stadium.”

  31. “fight like lions before posing in a penalty shootout”

    spot on

  32. alec

    “On Leveson – @NickP is wrong. More bad stuff is coming out and Hunt is in serious trouble.”

    Quite happy to be wrong. Can’t understand why Cameron didn’t sack him if he knew what was coming.

  33. @my namesake

    Your last post is similar to others from you. It seems to me that every now and then you pop in, make a right wing point about cutting more expenditure and then retire.

    Could you tell us what effect more cuts would have on VI? My feeling is that such would be very damaging to the blue and golden corner, regardless of whether it would have any benefits to the economy or deficit, about which I do not consider I should express a view, as, in my case, I haven’t a clue..

  34. Prediction

    Jeremy Hunt will offer his resignation to the PM this evening, which will reluctantly be accepted.
    Ed Vaisey will be appointed secretary of state.

  35. Mike N

    Hmm. Maybe this Apple autocorrect is cleverer than I thought…

  36. I’m reminded about AW’s constant warning that those already anti-Hunt will see his performance as terrible and those already pro-Hunt (are there many of these people?) will see him as doing well.

    I think the key thing to watch will be the reaction of the Editors tweets. Wintour and Michael White are particularly interesting at the moment. If tomorrow’s papers are a full splash of “He Must Be Sacked” I think that will be the deciding factor (maybe not of a resignation but of a referral of his behaviour).

  37. LeftyL

    A typo or not, it was funny (and apt).

  38. R Huckle
    On Vaisey.

    No he won’t IMO. The number of cabinet ministers agreed between Con and Lib Dem is fixed by agreement. I suppose you could be right but only if a LD minister was to helpfully fall on his sword for a Tory substitute (it is ‘he’ of course as the LDs don’t have any women in teh cabinet). More likely is that a Con minister would be moved up to SoS (again IMO).

  39. @Lefty

    Yes, what interests me is that often they do the ‘expected to say’ bits about statements that are made hours later to Parliament, and my understanding is that such should bring down the wrath of the Speaker on them.

    Perhaps a law enabling Bercow to find such as Robinson ‘in contempt’ with a pundits’ dungeon at a spot deep beneath his Chair would be appropriate.

  40. BBC News announce “charity tax U-turn”

  41. Howard.
    This constant need for the 24h rolling media to be one step ahead of the news is deeply corrosive. It has led directly to the chumming up of politicians/advisors and the media. It’s led to politicians constantly having to trail their announcements beforehand in order to control the media response and by extension, that of the public. It is deeply un-democratic and has led directly to the situation that Leveson is dealing with today.

    If I were Leveson, I’d be absolutely incandescent at Robinson’s piece today and would drag him in immediately to find out who the bloody hell was feeding him.

  42. Another U turn announced!!

  43. Charitable Giving budget proposal “changed”.
    8-)

  44. Howard – Ed Vaizey IS a Tory

  45. U-turn on charity tax right in the middle of Hunt at Leveson.

    LOL!

  46. “@Anthony Wells

    Howard – Ed Vaizey IS a Tory”

    That is one of parliaments problems. Too many Eds.

    I think Howard confused Ed Davey with Ed Vaizey.

    Ed Davey has only just replaced Huhne as secretary of state at Energy.

    I am sure that Cameron will have to have a reshuffle at some point.

  47. Well whoever Cameron picks;

    On his Ed be it!

    Peter.

  48. I see AW is moderating a previous post. Perhaps I should never start any sentence with…… I don’t say this in a partisan way, but.

    Perhaps I should have said. Some voters if polled could view the conduct of Hunt as incompetent and this may be reflected in VI.

  49. CROSSBATn

    Just seen Paul Krugman on Newsnight debating the state of the UK economy and the coalition’s economic policy with the venture capitalist John Moulton and the Tory MP and ex-financier Andrea Leadsom. I don’t know what others who may have watched the discussion thought about it, but I got the distinct impression that Mr Moulton and and Ms Leadsom looked somewhat chastened by the end of it!

    —-

    Just watched it thanks for the tip.

    What a pair of lightweights! Leadsom peddaling the old household finances myth was cringeworthy.

    I don’t live in the UK so rarely see Newsnight. I was amused that Paxman seemed so amused by the whole thing.

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