YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures tonight of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. A Labour lead of twelve points, again pretty typical of YouGov’s daily polls for the last week or two.

Tonight’s poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly question on who would make the best Prime Minister. David Cameron is on 31%(-1), Ed Miliband 21%(-3), Nick Clegg 5%(+1), Don’t know 43%(+2).


160 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 44, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. I don’t know why this lead is so robust. I still have the feeling it’s going to start dying down soon.

  2. 12 points ahead. seems that osborne’s clearing of thte decks isn’t working.

  3. Isn’t the government’s best hope simply to do nothing for a few months?

  4. @Garry Gatter

    You did magnificently Garry, Congratulations! See end of last thread

  5. I think the Tories VI has been bolstered by over 60’s pasty eaters.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/fjx3fea7e9/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-300512.pdf

  6. @Harry

    My word, these feelings simply must be held in check.

  7. @MIKEMS

    I agree with that – I think anything the government does right now will be viewed as a disaster – Labour have them ‘on the run’, in the words of David Cameron. Best just to continue running the country, and the high leads will probably cease.

  8. @R Huckle

    You call 32% a ‘bolster’? :-)

  9. Howard

    You must be very pleased with Nick Cleggs uplift, as the person judged to be best PM. :)

    BBC News reporting that Andy Coulson has now been charged. If he is found guilty, this would be highly embarrassing to Cameron, as Coulson was his advisor at No.10 at the time.

  10. @Mikems

    We are almost into salad days (my Dutch friends call it the cucumber time) and we have (well you know what we have in front of us), ceremonies, flags, football, more ceremonies, flags, opening ceremonies, running about, closing ceremonies, and in between Tour de France, British GP, Ascot……………..

    Nothing will happen that would have any lasting effect other than an ‘event’.

  11. 43% “don’t know” who would make best p.m. Dunno what that says about what but its a bit odd.

  12. @R Huckle

    As you can imagine, Mrs H and I are at this moment pouring another glass of Chilean Merlot.

    Mind, we would be anyway at 2200 (last one).

  13. Howard,

    I think the collapse of the Spanish banking system will qualify as an “event”.

  14. The Doctors go on strike for the first time since the 70s
    and Coulson is charged with perjury whilst in the heart
    of No 10.Plus endless U turns.Tomorrows polls may well
    reflect what is seen to be a goverment in serious trouble.

  15. @Ann (in Wales!)

    I don’t think those things have leaked through to the general population properly, to be honest. I don’t think we’ll particularly see any trend away from the government that isn’t an outlier.

  16. @ANN(IN WALES)
    `The Doctors go on strike for the first time since the 70s`

    Terrible headlines tomorrow for the doctors though…They have to take a share of the pain though some feel the government is trying to use the doctor`s pension funds which is in surplus as a piggy bank.I have to admit that the Labour government was excessively generous to GP`s and maybe some clawback would be fair.

  17. Harry,get real.With an ageing population who trust their
    doctors they are going to be pretty interested to know
    their reasons for this strike.It is not just about pensions
    in my opinion,it is about how the opinions of the proffesionals
    have been consistently ignored by this government.Not
    just Doctors but teachers,the police,you name it basically.

  18. @ANN( IN WALES)
    `It is not just about pensions
    in my opinion`

    I think you are right about that.

  19. Not much sign of things moving, although I would urge a little caution as we are somewhat inured to YouGov’s large leads. Other companies are less favourable to Labour, but it’s fair to say that things really are pretty relentless for the government at present.

    The Euro situation is critical, but it’s looking increasingly like a Spanish bailout is inevitable, whether or not Greece leaves the EU. The fact that the post bailout austerity packages are what is now causing the biggest problems begs the question as to why a Spanish bailout would have any better success, but hey ho – we’ve had 18 Euro summits that have each solved the crisis, so we’ve been told.

  20. Looks like we’re in solid double digit lead territory again after a little bit of tightening last week when we had a couple of 8 and 10% leads. We even had a poster seizing on the 8% lead poll saying that it proved the “softness” of the Labour vote and asserting that an opposition should be much further ahead considering the government’s current woes. The last four YouGov polls average a 12% Labour lead and, coincidentally, this particular poster hasn’t reappeared. To quote our absent friend Roly, it would appear that he’s “gone back into his box”.

    So, why do we think that the Labour lead has widened in the last week? My Saturday Daily Express had our old friend Patrick O’Flynn claiming that Cameron had “stopped the rot” and that there was signs that the Government were controlling the agenda again and eliminating the tendency for self-inflicted pratfalls. As a result of this improvement in news management, he predicted a timely and welcome recovery in their political fortunes. Subsequently, we’ve had the retreats on the pasty and caravan taxes and the proposed measures on secret courts, yet we see no uptick in the Tory VI in the polls.

    I’m keeping my powder dry on this for now for risk of pronouncing too early, and we do need to see if the trend continues, but I have a growing feeling that something quite significant took place over two months ago and that Osborne’s calamitous Budget on March 21st has changed the terms of engagement very significantly. Here we are, almost in June now, and the sudden shift in opinion seen almost immediately after the March Budget is still entrenched in the polls, maybe even growing. We’re not talking blips or short lived spasms here, and something has changed in the way that this government is perceived. My guess is that competence is the key factor and once a government loses a reputation for competence, it usually proves a very difficult genie to get back into the bottle.

    I had a feeling at the time of the fuel fiasco, pasty taxes et al that the sound of laughter might be the sound that the government would least like hearing and all I’ve seen since, and heard on the doorsteps whilst campaigning in the local elections, reinforces this view. Ridicule is not a good a good thing to invite in politics.

  21. Andy Coulson being charged is trending all around the world on twitter. Many from media outlets, where the stories all appear to question Camerons judgement.

    I think Cameron could be fatally wounded over the next few years, if matters are progressed in regard to Coulson and Brooks. Could some Tories start to think about calling a leadership election by say Autumn 2013 and then go for an early GE ? They would have to ask parliament to vote for a no confidence motion, which would trigger a GE under the fixed term parliament bill. I don’t think Labour and the Lib Dems would stop an early GE.

    Previously the Tories were very unhappy with Brown taking over from Blair, without a GE to allow the British electorate to consider who they wanted as PM, as well as their preferred MP.

  22. For anyone with an academic interest in matters of law, a transcript (in six parts) of Coulson’s testimony at the Sheridan trial can be found here:

    h
    ttp://web3dlaw.wordpress.com/tag/coulson/

    Sheridan is given leave to ask questions which touch on many aspects of the phone hacking scandal.

  23. @ Ann

    Don’t get me wrong, I agree with you. I’m just not sure anybody who hasn’t already switched over to Labour does.

  24. @BillyBob

    I’ll certainly look into it.

    Sheridan was such a high profile figure that this story will remain big in Scotland at least for sone time. Will Sheridan seek a fresh appeal or a retrial?

  25. Crossbat,I am quite sure that the government is hoping
    that the jubilee celebrations will deflect the adverse winds
    that are blowing in their direction.Alas, there is rather an
    adverse weather forecast this weekend, cold and wet.Not
    good for street parties et al.By the way does anyone know
    anyone who is attending a street party?

  26. “So, why do we think that the Labour lead has widened in the last week”

    Don’t waste too much time trying to explain things that are probably normal margin of error variation. In hindsight that one YouGov poll showing an 8 point lead looked like an outlier, and putting that one aside Labour’s lead in the YouGov polls last week was between 10 and 12 points.

    Agree with the rest of your comment though, the budget and the omnishambles period afterwards do seem to have produced a shift in opinion that has now been consolidated.

  27. @ Billy Bob (from the previous thread)

    “It was in fact addressed to chrislane1945 at 5:35 am on 8th October 2011, but yes, I do treasure that episode:”

    Lol, you have an amazing memory or equally amazing research skills. Your line then about “UKPR surreality” was priceless.

    @ Amber Star (from the previous thread)

    “My son & I are both members of the Labour Party. It is very cool. You can attend the Party conferences (as a delegate, if your CLP appoints you), you get to have input to policy reviews, vote for office bearers including the Party leaders & deputy leaders & you get to nominate members to be local councillors, MPs & MSPs. You also get invited to loads of events. We’ve been to dinners with Ed Balls, Alistair Darling & Alistair Campbell to name three well known names plus loads of events with MSPs, MPs.& Councillors.”

    That does sound cool and worth your monthly or yearly dues. Do you not have elections for party delegates to your conferences? Or are you just automatically invited? I assume that party conferences help pick your party leaders and craft your platform right?

    @ Howard (from a previous thread)

    “The membership is a sort of relict feature of that which enabled me to become a District councillor. Had I stood as independent, although I was very popular (I made sure of that in the 2 years previous), I would have had a Lib Dem against me and the Tory.

    Do I really have to spell out what the result would have been? FPTP in a Toryish area, there was only one way to possibly get elected. I really just wanted to protect the rural environment. In those days, I really thought the LDs would not wish to concrete over the countryside and I supported PR and greater integration within the EU. Only two of those three are left now, but which other party wants both PR and more integration within the EU?”

    I think you did what you felt is best. I don’t think we’re ever going to agree with any politcal party 100% of the time. It’s kind of unreasonably to expect that. So you go with the one that you’re closest with and go from there.

    “I got a ‘personal’ email from Nick today – there, that’s another benefit, wow.”

    Was he asking you for money? I get so many of those these days and it just gets annoying after a while.

  28. Alec,

    The Spanish know that the previous bailouts have been a disaster and so are playing chicken with the ECB over bailing out the Spanish banks. It isn’t clear to me if they will actually blink if the ECB doesn’t, or if they will instead let banks fold. The latter would be most rational in my view. It would also have a significant effect on the UK economy.

  29. As you can imagine, Mrs H and I are at this moment pouring another glass of Chilean Merlot.

    Mind, we would be anyway at 2200 (last one).

    May 30th, 2012 at 10:19 pm

    ———————

    R Huckle – either you have a very steady wrist, or AW has you on the naughty step for a full 19 mins -surely a record for a LibDem?

  30. Sorry, RH I meant Mr & Mrs Howard

  31. That Labour lead seems determined to fool us into thinking it’s going to grow significantly, then come steadily down, then again back up as today.

    It could be assumed the high “don’t know” might be another symptom of the situation whereby UKIP is now popular (being as they have never been in parliament, and hence can’t be blamed for anything that goes wrong) otherwise known as a protest vote, which would normally go to the LD’s if they were not i government as now.

    I’m sure Nick Clegg would be glad to see his popularity on the increase. Then again starting from 5% gives little latitude for decrease.

    Like many, I’m waiting for the Spanish banks to go “pop”. The chain reaction is going to be interesting, if painful.

  32. I had a post snipped yesterday by AW, as he did not appreciate my pastry jokes at the Tories expense.

    I thought that it was quite funny to say that George Osborne looked at bit pastry and could do with a Sun static caravan holiday, where he might bump into Rebecca and Rupes.

    I don’t see this as partisan. It is a joke based on current stories in the media, some of which is possibly reflected in polling ?

  33. @SMUKESH Terrible headlines tomorrow for the doctors though…They have to take a share of the pain

    Might have worked before the budget – that argument will no longer wash

  34. Brilliant quote by Krugman on Newsnight.

    I’m not quoting verbatim but it went something like this.

    Something impossible is going to happen. Either Greece leaves the Euro, which is impossible. Or Germany faces up to the need to move towards communalising the EZ debt, which is impossible. And the decision makers don;t have the luxury of years to call this one. They have a few months, maximum.

    Interesting times…

  35. Are the voting public finally coming to the conclusion ‘They’re All In It Together’?

    It’s certainly looking like it but perhaps not quite what had been intended!

    As a non partisan, I find it quite interesting to hear the comments of my neighbours here in Wilmslow, part of George Osborne’s constituency….the views certainly seem to have changed with some permanency from those at the time of the GE.

    People (non partisans) don’t seem to like the way the Prime Minister conducted himself in making personal attacks at PMQ’s and the judgement of who the Prime Minister gives his unswerving support to (Coulson/Hunt etc) doesn’t seem to be in tune with most people, in this neck of the woods at least!

    Governments tend to lose elections rather than opposition winning them, this Government, to some, appears farcical at present and whilst Ed Milliband is certainly no Tony Blair in terms of oratory skills, maybe he doesn’t actually have to do much in order to win a GE, just let the PM and his team ‘Carry On Cutting’!!!

  36. @HOWARD

    Thanks :) I was close but still no coconut.

  37. Just seen Paul Krugman on Newsnight debating the state of the UK economy and the coalition’s economic policy with the venture capitalist John Moulton and the Tory MP and ex-financier Andrea Leadsom. I don’t know what others who may have watched the discussion thought about it, but I got the distinct impression that Mr Moulton and and Ms Leadsom looked somewhat chastened by the end of it!

    Let’s put it this way, if Paxman had been a boxing referee I think he might have stopped it about halfway through.

  38. @Ann (in Wales),

    I shall be at a street party on Monday. As will the rest of my street. My wife is running it. Enthusiasm is running high and I don’t think bad weather will dampen it.

    Whether the Jubilee will help the government or not (I think it might do, if only by dominating the news to the detriment of the Coulson story and other political chatter), I think your cynicism about the event will not be realised. Brits love a good old jamboree. After all, nearly 10,000 road closures for parties – and that won’t be all the parties (we’ve not applied for a road closure, as that would cut a dozen residents off from their houses due to the layout of our estate).

  39. Coulson detained at 6 am, rendered over the border,held and then arrested and charged at 10pm, then rendered back to Forest Hill (Dulwich Borders)

    What would Murdoch have made of it all if he still had a voice?

  40. As for the polling – well it is still pretty dire for the government. I think the root cause is the Budget, and primarily the higher rate tax cut, juxtaposed with the “granny tax”. With that single piece of political insensitivity the Chancellor managed to puncture the “we’re all in it together” balloon completely.

    I think that is a very important and dangerous event for the Tories. They were benefiting from a little bit of a “blitz spirit” attitude in the country, what with “Keep Calm and Carry On” posters all the rage, and the nostalgia of the Jubilee. A large chunk of the electorate were foursquare behind the cuts, despite personal misgivings about specific policies, because they perceived that the country was “at risk” and that everyone needed to do their bit to save it.

    Whether that’s actually true or not (cue 15 posts extolling a Keynesian solution to the debt crisis) is really beside the point. The sentiment was in place. But by gifting the opposition the impression that he was stealing cash off retired postmen and stuffing it into the mouths of the rich, the Chancellor has lost his credibility with the public. And let’s face it he was on fairly thin ice to start with, given his background.

    Everything else is just fluff really, although the so-called “Pasty Tax” probably cost a few votes in the Plymouth council election. Coulson and Brooks doesn’t look good, but they’ve been charged with things that are extremely unlikely to link directly to Cameron so I don’t think that’s going to matter much beyond Westminster.

    I fully expected the Tories to be 10 points behind by now. They’re probably a little bit more in trouble than I expected. Certainly it’s moved the goalposts for 2015 to make a Labour majority at least a reasonable prospect. Still a long time to go though.

  41. The regional breakdown of the recent Sunday Times / You Gov poll is interesting . The Scottish National Party is comfortably ahead of Labour in Scotland and Labour is behind in the South of England but with a marginal lead in London . Labour’s poll lead seems to be bolstered by the 56% support it has in the North of England where it already holds a vast number of seats . A 12% lead is useless without holding Scotland or being able to challenge in London and the South

  42. “Tonight’s poll also has YouGov’s fortnightly question on who would make the best Prime Minister. David Cameron is on 31%(-1), Ed Miliband 21%(-3), Nick Clegg 5%(+1), Don’t know 43%(+2).”
    ….

    Taking the error of margin as a + 3% into account then Cameron and Clegg’s popularity almost mirrors their party’s support but for Milliband it’s a disaster and could cause Labour big problems come the election.

    I do believe personalities do win elections!!

    Just saying…. :)

  43. @crossbat11

    “Just seen Paul Krugman on Newsnight . Mr Moulton and and Ms Leadsom looked somewhat chastened by the end of it!

    Let’s put it this way, if Paxman had been a boxing referee I think he might have stopped it about halfway through.”

    Yes watched it. Agree with your assessment. I agreed with everything that Mr Krugman said.

    The problem for the coalition is that they still have most of the actual cuts to implement. They will be doing this against a background of a likely prolonged Eurozone recession. Spain is a now likely to need bailing out and the only country that can do this is Germany. The UK economy if it wants to avoid a recession lasting until the next GE, needs to get major infrastructure projects going. Could do with an investment bank being set up urgently for this purpose, as well to invest in businesses that can’t currently borrow money to expand.

  44. Does anyone have the information for how likely people are to vote for their parties? I’m wondering whether yet another bad news day for the government over Andy Coulson and what may be to come will have any further effect on the government’s approval, or whether the remaining are diehard supporters.

    Personally, I’d expect that most labour voters would be open to changing their minds and the remaining tory supporters will have their mind set.

  45. @David Anthony,

    I think Tory VI has a floor of around 30%. Labour maybe a little less. LibDems who knows? Once I would have said 10% but its clearly dropped below that.

    I think the point about “bad news” is that what matters is whether it changes people’s perceptions or not. Most people who believe that Brooks and Coulson’s alleged crimes reflect badly on Cameron are those who assume that he was a party to them. In other words, people who don’t like him anyway.

    If proof emerges that he knew anything about phonehacking, perjury or whatever, then that would be a significant new development that could turn people against him who were previously in favour. But the assumption that he will suffer even if there is no proof “because it calls his judgement into question” comes mainly from people who think he has no judgement to question.

    To quote Tyrion Lannister in Game of Thrones;

    Janos Slynt – “Are you questioning my honour?”
    Tyrion – “No I’m not questioning your honour. I’m denying its existence”.

  46. Neil A

    “I think the root cause is the Budget…”

    May I present an ever-so-slightly partisan counter argument? I think the Budget was a catalyst. It suddenly crystalised concerns that have been swelling under the surface, that maybe the Govt’s whole approach to the current crisis is wrong.

    I simply cannot see any reason why what would otherwise be a transient 1-2% polling hit over really quite trivial issues like tax on sausage rolls should turn into what is looking more like a structural shift in VI.

    Tonight’s Newsnight was very informative. Two eminine t economists (Krugman and Rogoff) with little history of agreement BOTH agreeing that Austerity as a way forward is dead in the water. Christ, even Niall Ferguson has admitted that Austerity uber Alles is wrong for the EZ periphery.

    And yet, we still hear nothing but the same mantra from the Coalition.

    I suggest that the tide has turned. That people were already starting to question the 1-D TINA approach that the Coalition has peddled. And that the Budget/Omnishambles was the mote of dust that catalysed the sudden crystalisation of VI change.

    Nice to see you back anyway.

  47. @KeithP

    “That Labour lead seems determined to fool us into thinking it’s going to grow significantly, then come steadily down, then again back up as today”

    I’ve commented before about how the Labour VI seems much less stable than either Con or LD – there seems a lot more wobble around the average. I wondered out loud whether it had something to do with feeling under pressure shortly before payday, but the recent oscillations don’t back that up.

    I’m now tending towards the idea that there is something about the Labour-voting demographic that isn’t properly controlled in the YouGov weightings, so that Lab VI is prone to large swings (and roundabouts). The most obvious recent example was the week after Easter, where the polling was markedly different from the weeks either side.

    The question is, what is the nature of this uncorrected fluctuation, and if it were to be corrected what would be the impact on the polling figures…?

  48. @Lefty,

    Thanks.

    I didn’t see Newsnight, but I am sure both the economists were very eloquent. I am sure there are other economists who would be just as eloquent in putting an opposing view, even if Newsnight didn’t have them on the program on this occasion.

    I had always assumed that the public mood would turn away from the cuts, hence my pricing in of a 10% deficit for the Tories by the end of 2011 (I was a little out with my timing). In a way we are saying the same thing, which is that the “we’re all in it together” narrative was keeping support for cuts up, and the budget broke the dam.

    The bottom line is that the Left’s policy is always to spend more money, whether there’s a boom, a bust or something in between. There’s no point us debating here whether austerity is a good idea. For a start, the UK’s cuts are not “austerity” by a long chalk. As for the Eurozone periphery, I am not sure that they face any genuine choice at all. When you’re bust, you’re bust. There is no “I don’t want to be bust” option.

  49. Neil

    I guess we are saying the same thing about the polling situation. Just different things about the root cause. Politics eh? Bloody hell.

    As for Newsnight’s choice of economists, those two ARE on different sides.The point is that BOTH were saying that Austerity is leading to calamity. Their only points of difference were on what the consequences are for decisions going forwards.

    Whether the Coalition’s policies are or are not Austerity is perhaps secondary. The primary issue is how they are seen. They made much political capital by conjuring up the spectre of what would happen without Austerity. If they are now suffering because of a perception of Austerity, then hoists and petards come to mind.

    And as for the EZ periphery, I’ll beg to differ again. When you’re bust, you DO have a Plan B. You can play your hand sufficiently skilfully that Germany might just blink at what the consequences of you actually going bust might be. You can say, “I don’t want to be bust. Do YOU want to run the risk of what might happen if I DO go bust.”

    That’s the situation that we are living through over the next month or so. By Sept/Oct, we’ll know if we’re in nightmare territory because the politicians have over-played their hands.

  50. Just think if this was post Independence we might have had to apply to extradite Coulson with May having to sign him over….that would be fun for the government.

    Peter.

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