Tonight’s YouGov results for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). It looks as though the rather unexpected 8 point Labour lead on Thursday was indeed a bit of an outlier, nevertheless, Labour’s post-local-election boost does seem to have abated a bit – last week Labour’s average lead in YouGov’s daily polls was 12.6 points. This week it has been 10.6 points.

There are also new figures from TNS-BMRB (although the actual fieldwork for the poll was done over last weekend, so while it’s newly published, it was done the same time as the ICM and Populus polls earlier this week). Their topline figures with changes from their last poll just after the local elections are CON 30%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LD 12%(+2), Others 16%(-1).

As usual, I’ll do a proper post on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow.

56 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 43, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. Allan Christie

    UKIP have been floating around the 8% mark for a while now but how many seats would this translate into if they polled the same % at the general election?

    Is there a part of the country where they are strong? Even 8% for the Libs would still see them pick up around a dozen seats in the South West!!


    Lib Dem support tends to be concentrated in certain constituencies within certain areas. And currently adds up to 8% nationally and will gain them about 15 to 20 seats.

    By contrast UKIP support is more thinly (widely) spread. Not concentrated in any constituencies. It also currently adds up to 8% nationally but will consequently gain them no seats.

  2. @CHRISLANE1945
    `However, I also think that the sight of Nick C and his colleagues laughing and appearing to support the PM in the House of Commons seems to be damaging to them`

    Especially when it seems to be orchestrated as MIKE N points out.

    It might be important that Liberal Democrats acknowledge that the banks played a big role in the recession rather than government…For this is Labour`s position.He also seemed to criticise Theresa May for overplaying the Eurogeddon scenario and drumming up Immigration concerns.

  3. @Smukesh

    “Can`t see Blair`s testimony being too damaging‚ĶFor one,he`s not the leader and I don`t believe sleaze will emerge.”

    I agree, although I should imagine that there are quite a few in the Coalition who are hoping, desperately, that it might! His testimony will a bit of an archaic sideshow, I would imagine, but I expect it be highly entertaining, especially his sparring with the counsel Robert Jay. For Blair’s many detractors and arch-loathers, the spectacle will be an infuriating one. Reminders of why they loathe him so will be there in spade loads. There will be self-deprecation aplenty, wit, humour, equivocation, ambiguity and half-truths slipping into untruths. The old master will no doubt showcase the full gamut of his vast tricks and I can see many viewers spitting feathers and, in some cases, being sorely tempted to hurl hard objects at the TV screen.

    Then, I suspect, they’ll be plenty like me who, almost despite ourselves, will secretly enjoy the sight of a master politician at work. This admiring number will probably include all those who, in a recent poll, placed him as the most likeable of all our PMs in the last 32 years, and the second most competent after Thatcher.

    Of course, it will be almost irrelevant stuff in the great Leveson scheme of things, but it will be a timely reminder of the man’e political gifts; gifts still greatly admired by leading Tories, I believe. For, whatever is said about Blair, and however history eventually judges him, he was/is an extraordinary performer, someone who plied the black art of politics better than anyone I can remember in my political lifetime.

    For the first time since Leveson started, I’ll be watching tomorrow. If you don’t get Blair, and the reason for his extraordinary success, you don’t get politics, in my view.

  4. @Hooded Man

    Royal sources did say William would not listen to reason over this. Just my reading – as a young child, and at a deeply traumatic time he will have heard many negative comments, from other family members, about that dreadful man interfering. It is forgotten perhaps how badly the monarch miscalculated the public mood over Diana, and the PM has a duty to advise in such circumstances.

    The Queen’s opinion was that Diana was no longer a member of the family and did not merit a state funeral. “Ma’am, have you no heart?” headlines started appearing. and she eventually bowed to pressure and had the palace flag lowered to half-mast.

  5. Billy Bob,

    From experience, as a fifteen year old even in tragic circumstances he is probably sufficiently capable of making his own mind up about those with his interests at heart, or otherwise……….and one grows up pretty quickly in such situations……..

    ………bear in mind the SNP would have us all voting around that age :-)

  6. BIG TIM.

    Yes that is what I thought. UKIP have no area of the country where they are strong so maybe they should concentrate in one area only and see if they can win a seat or two. The Greens managed it so who knows if UKIP can do the same!!

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