Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). Thirteen points equals the biggest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the election (it’s been hit twice before, both in April).

All the normal caveats apply – sure, it could be the start of larger Labour leads or it could just be normal random variation around the 10 or 11 point leads we’ve been seeing of late. That said, I personally wouldn’t be surprised if we did see bigger Labour leads in the coming days, it is far from unknown for local election victories to give parties a boost (from having the aura of success about them and “looking like a winner”). Equally, it’s far from guaranteed to happen. As ever, time will tell.


401 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 44, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. @PeterCairns

    Fwiw “tenterhooks” were the hooks used to dry cloth on a frame (tenter), though as is nearly always the case, the malapropism is equally expressive.

    As it happens the latin “tendere” to stretch is the root of both tent and tender (as in extend), while the other meaning of tender (to the touch) is also related by way of tenuis, thin (something that has been stretched).

  2. Whaddya know, the in-fighting isn’t just confined to this site ;-)

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2012/05/tory-mps-at-war-with-each-other.html

    Tim Montgomerie warning of trouble at t’mill….

    A reshuffle is surely on the cards soon. DC should have bitten the bullet on this a while back, now, with his back to the wall, it will look like it’s being done from a position of weakness but it’s needed nevertheless IMO to sharpen and freshen his attack.

    Anyone got any inside knowledge/thoughts on upcoming talent in the Tory ranks? I’ve no idea myself other than a suspicion that we are likely to see more media-friendly women in some important roles soon…..

  3. Am I understanding Greek electoral law correctly if I say that a few days from now, for the first time since Hitler, a Nazi will be asked to form a government?

    (Obviously, noone will be interested, but he still needs to be asked).

    On tonight’s predictions, I go for another Lab 13 point lead with government approval at -44.

  4. Obama’s just come out for same-sex marriage.

    I’m sure it’s not really a surprise to anyone that he feels this way, but it’s a very brave move to make before the election isn’t it? Any idea of how it may affect the polling in swing states, especially southern ones, it seems an issue that many Democrat’s don’t back, like Socal said black and Hispanic voters seem to http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5368be less keen and they look like they’re breaking for Obama at the moment.

    Back home, I can’t see any of the events over the past few days really influencing polls; the relaunch was a damp squid by all accounts and there’s nothing really unsurprising in the Queen’s speech, so if there is an increase in Labour support I would attribute it to a post-election bounce.

  5. @WOODSMAN

    “More surprising was the way that Stewart Jackson MP was shouted down when he argued that we had to be an ecumenical party where dissident voices were given proper house room. 15 to 20 MPs told him to shut up and sit down.”

    :D

  6. @ Scotswaehae, Mark Watson, David, (and others who care)

    http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/president-obama-affirms-his-support-for-same-sex-marriage.html

    The President has come out of the closet on his position in regards to marriage equality that is.

    I was getting annoyed with all the complaints on this from the left. I mean, talk about irrelevant and counter productive. But, I’m glad he’s shown the courage to finally say what he truly believes.

  7. Hooded

    Thanks.

    Not sure I agree about the Queen’s Speech content.

    The last two years have been a whirlwind of reforming legislation. The pace was incredible.

    I’m glad they have slowed it down.

    Getting Acts of Parliament through HoC is the easy bit-implementing all the regs & achieving desired outcomes is what matters to voters & they have a lot of that to do.

    The Banking Reform Bill will be big enough for them to get their teeth into.

  8. @CYT

    PASOK, ANEL (independent cons) and KKE (communists) would be given a chance of forming a government before the nazi’s

  9. Craig, yes – but surely they will all fail (and thus the Nazis will be asked, and fail – and trigger the election).

  10. Reggie,

    Interesting views.

    Until I came on UKPR, I was completely unaware of the effect on VI in the polls for Con of ‘black wednesday’ but looking at the graphs in here – its so clear that this did seem to mark the end for Major’s Government.

    Do people think recent events will have the same effect on the coalition government — will the Government lose economic credibility ?

    ie are we looking at a terminal decline in government support, or ‘mid-term blues’

    Off topic, Max, what are you studying, where, if you dont mind me asking.Im a lifelong perpetual student myself, and I am always interested in what people are studying.

    :-)

  11. @Max

    Analysis of pricing shows that price is not necessarily related to quality. In a free market you will charge what you can in order to maximise your profits. If you have good brand perception you can charge far more for something that is intrinsically the same. So, although I haven’t drunk cider since I was 15, and therefore can’t comment on Magner’s qualities, I suspect that it isn’t as good as the price might suggest.

  12. I wonder how many times a week Cameron considers breaking his support of free speech to call ConservativeHome and tell them to shut up? I’m not saying I disagree with them necessarily, but they give him headache after headache. Now they’ve released an Alternative Queen’s Speech with 15 policies that would be on the cards “If we had a Tory majority” though many of them are love-letters to the right-wing of the party that wouldn’t be made laws anyway I suspect. How many different ways are they going to find to call Cameron weak and overly-centrist?

  13. Colin,
    Think you are right re Queens speech – they need to aim to bed down Welfare, NHS changes and others.

    Roger thanks for explaining why my 16 year old daugher asks me to get Magners Cider, on offer in Tesco last Saturday BTW.

    Chris L – like the Wilde quote.

    Ken, if you are on some news re Chelskie. UEFA have said John Terry can lift the trophy even though suspended, as long as Bayern don’t mind him joining in their celebratrations. Also heard Chelsea fans who joined from Blackburn in 2003 have agreed a one year contract extension and decided not to join Man City just yet. (courtesy of my 14 year old son actually hope you win).

  14. QUINCEL

    ConHome is a necessary thorn in the side -like those things certain Catholics have in their pants, to stop them having unsuitable thoughts.

    :-)

  15. As someone who has come on here almost daily for the last few years, but only posted 2-3 times, I’d like to add my voice to those calling for a return to civility. There are hundreds of forums for saying what you think about political, religious or social issues.The forums on Have Your Say, Comment is Free, Huffington Post etc are a perfect place for party activists to spew invective at each other. Jon Stewarts demolition of Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson on Crossfire sums up my views on that kind of “debate”. This is the only place I’ve found where (mostly) sensible people discuss the impact the days events might have on public opinion in a (mostly) non-partisan way. Please keep it that way.

  16. Prediction:

    If its ‘mid-terrm blues’ — Con 33, Lab 41, Libdem 8, Ukip 8

    If its ‘black wednesday’ — Con 28, Lab 45, LibDem 7, Ukip 9.

    :-)

  17. conhome seem quite good at the old Sun epithets: “mad-nad” “red-ed” etc. All very grown-up stuff

  18. JIM JAM

    Thanks :-)

    Yes-I would really like to see them ticking off a score sheet:-

    HB did not result in ethnic cleansing of central london.
    NHS did not break up & get sold to Sainsburys.

    etc.
    .
    Banking Reform is a really big deal-up there with NHS, Welfare & Schooling. It will be controversial-and after all it takes us right back to the UK Banking Crisis. It is a very important reform.

  19. SoCal,

    “The President has come out of the closet on his position in regards to marriage equality that is.”

    Good or bad for re-election, you think?

  20. @ Max
    And what’s wrong with saying “the gays” it’s jsut a short version of “the gay people”
    The British people = the brits
    the english people = the english
    the black people = the blacks
    the hispanic people = the hispanics
    The Conservative People (Members) = The Conservatives
    The Liberal Democrats = The Lib Dems or The Liberals or The Libs
    The Gay people = The gays.
    There’s nothing wrong with saying “the gays”
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Well, it’s obvious that you don’t like/understand/empathise with anybody not like you.

    I always find it quite hard to understand people who start to justify their own prejudice by lumping terms of description like ‘the English’, ‘the Brits’, ‘the Conservatives’ in with ‘the blacks’, ‘the hispanics’ and “the gays”. It’as an old trick of normalising something that is offensive …… ‘the’ as belonging to. Does a black person really belong to ‘the blacks’ or a gay person really belong to ‘the gays’?

    Before you accuse me of being over PC, I think you need to talk to ‘the blacks’, ‘the hispanics’ and “the gays” and see if they see themselves in the terminology you used. Perhaps then you will show some respect.

  21. I quite like the idea of banking reform but can it be done and would there be any point without the co-operation of the rest of the worlds governments/banks,

  22. ‘The Gays’ — probably not.
    ‘The Gay Community’ is probably OK though

    :-)

  23. @TheSheep

    Well someone commented that it was tasteless which I personally find untrue, as soon as I taste it, I think YUM, especially when you have ice it just makes it so tasty and refreshing, the apple flavour really comes through, and it doesnt taste alcoholic.

  24. FENCESITTER

    Suggest you read Vickers & make your own mind up :-

    http://bankingcommission.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/ICB-Final-Report.pdf

  25. @Quincel – “… call ConservativeHome and tell them to shut up?”

    The problem is more widespread, as Alex Massie writes for the Spectator:

    “And even if voters don’t much care for it, Leveson inevitably colours how the professional press views the government.”

    Leadership is more than presenting an image to the public, one has to be able to convince the people one is dealing with face-to-face, day-to-day.

    The new biog for example, which the media village will absolutely love, apart from charting the “Brooks affair” also mentions that royal courtiers told Cameron’s team “Buckingham Palace would think poorly of a decision to take Coulson into Downing Street.”

  26. Max

    And its [Magners] really expensive too, if it was rubbish, why would it be so pricey?

    How old are you exactly? Because the phrase ‘born yesterday’ rather springs to mind :P

    And I’ve never heard of White Lightning, maybe showing your age there a bit

    Oh I’m so old I can remember it coming in. But, as I keep on pointing out to you young people, Mr Google he your friend.. There is no excuse for ignorance of anyone’s popular culture these days.

    PeterCairns

    ”It’s White Lightning with an advertising budget”

    Is that Magners or the Government!

    Well given that White Lightning was very strong and beloved of the young, it probably isn’t the Government. On the other hand as it also tended to leave people lying about in the street, looking dazed…

  27. @CYT
    @TheSheep

    I’m no expert, but I’m sure I read at the time of the Greek election that only the top three parties would have a chance at coalition building. Now that ND and Syriza have failed, that just leaves Pasok. It seems highly unlikely that they can succeed where the other two have failed, so a new election in a month’s time seems inevitable.

    The Greek results are indeed fascinating, with seven parties represented in parliament, the largest of them only having 18% of the vote, but still getting a 50-seat bonus, giving them twice the number of seats of their nearest rivals. No wonder Syriza want this rule changed for the next election (though it seems very possible that if there is another election it would be them getting the extra 50).

    But perhaps the most remarkable fact is that in total 19% of the electorate voted for parties which did not even enter parliament, despite the threshold only being 3%!

  28. We should be grateful for FPTP for the Westminster parliament, as at least it produces stable (usually one party) government and minimises the risk of the extreme right emerging from the shadows (as happened in the last European elections in the UK). The PR electoral arrangements in some Mediterranean states (e.g. Italy/Greece/Israel) seem designed to produce instability and shifting party allegiances. They also facilitate a swing to the right and the emergence of neo-fascist parties. The new right-wing grand coalition in Israel has 94/120 of the Knesset seats and the recent Greek GE gave 162/300 seats to right-wing parties and allowed a Neo-Nazi party to gain representation. Unfortunately, the unstable situation in Greece is not merely of domestic concern there, but will impact on all EU members, including the UK.

  29. @ANN IN WALES
    I am not a good person to ask about Skinner. I think he is rather past it and today seemed to prove it once again.

  30. @peter cairns
    I did not enquire after the Libyan gentleman’s health.
    I made the point that he made your government look like fools. As for “getting of light”, the people who died over your country certainly did not.

  31. @andyo

    ‘The Gays’ — probably not.
    ‘The Gay Community’ is probably OK though

    How about homosexuals ?

  32. @Roly1

    yep ‘homosexuals’ is ok too.

    :-)

  33. Roland

    No, homosexual people, I suggest.

    My son-in-law is convinced that my daughter’s cat is homosexual. Thus it is a homosexual cat.

  34. Actually I am beginning to wonder if he means he enjoys stroking by men too much.

  35. I’ve just looked at the Tory web site and Lib Dem one (on how they each present the QS).

    It does seem to be heavy on LD stuff, generally. I suppose the 2013 one will be more Tory in content?

    Perhaps this is what has produced the 1922 backlash?

  36. The real problem with the ‘The XXXXs’ formulation isn’t it might offend some people, but that it treats a whole group of diverse people linked together by a single characteristic as if they were all exactly the same. By extension particular behaviours, opinions, even crimes can be imposed on every member of the group simply because they belong to it.

    If by contrast you use an adjectival approach (‘gay voters, ‘black professionals’, ‘Hispanic Texans’) you’re putting things in a wider context and also being more likely to make a statement that can be assessed with information rather than judged with prejudice (positive or negative). I suppose you could use this approach to have a go at the intersection of two groups you didn’t like, but it’s not as likely.

  37. I would say that using ‘homosexuals’ to generalise about gay people (“homosexuals vote Labour”) is just as bad as “the gays”. The offence comes from the fact that very often the *purpose* of using such a term is to pigeon-hole or to reinforce a stereotype, or to diminish individuality by instead assigning them to a group – it’s much easier for a bigot to say “I hate gays” than it is to say “I hate that particular gay person there, even though I have never met him/her”.

    “The Gay Community” is better, because this refers to a specific subset of individuals who are organised (whether formally or loosely) into some sort of grouping (e.g. a LGBT society, or those who frequent particular establishments who favour gay clientele). Those who don’t participate in such a grouping wouldn’t see themselves as being referred to by this term, although it is probably so generic as to be meaningless (cf what do we mean when we say “the Asian community”?).

    The point is that it is, pretty much without exception, possible to say exactly the same thing (usually with more accuracy) without using depersonalising or sterotyping phrasing. And making explicit the unacceptable nature of particular ways of expressing oneself makes it harder for prejudice to be expressed and propagated.

    The reduction in (although not elimination of) racism has derived at least in part from making the use of terms such as ‘blacks’ and ‘n*****s’ taboo. An example where political correctness has been only too sane.

  38. This is the work of a master satirist? Right?

  39. Roger (the Mexican)

    I had not realised there was so much significance in the Americanism of using adjectives as nouns. Thanks, a useful deliverable..

  40. After last night’s triumph, my prediction for tonight:

    Con 30
    Lab 44
    LD 9
    UKIP 8
    approval -41

  41. My prediction is you’re all betting against both statistical noise and a shift back after the protest vote in the locals:

    Con 32
    Lab 41
    LD 9
    UKIP 7

  42. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 9th May CON 31%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, (UKIP 8%); APP -39

  43. New thread

    13 pt Lab lead again

  44. *grin*

  45. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 9th May CON 31%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, (UKIP 8%); APP -39

  46. It’s not getting it wrong which bothers me, it’s the timing…

  47. QUINCEL

    I’d suggest that “protest vote” is another stereotype. The implication of it is that votes for (whoever you support – or the parties which are biggest) are positive votes for a particular stance, while others are simply negative.

    I suspect that few people anywhere vote positively for a particular group of politicians. Most are voting against what they don’t like.

    It’s a comfortable term for supporters of parties to use, in that it allows them to dismiss the views of people who voted the “wrong” way. Hence the perennial and foolish comments from politicians of parties in government that their policies are right – they just didn’t explain them properly to the simpletons who cast “protest votes”.

  48. There are some people who say “he is a gay”.

    Look, it’s not difficult. Ther current fashion is “gay” or “homosexual”. Anything else is probably offensive, sometimes gratuitously so. I don’t believe in political correctness, but there is no need to cause offence unneccesarily.

    And i’m a social conservative.

  49. Rory,

    “I made the point that he made your government look like fools.”

    Just how did not dieing as soon as doctors predicted make us look like fools, are you suggesting he faked his cancer.

    I tend to think he has just lived longer than expected. Would you call taking longer to die lucky, I am not so sure.

    “As for “getting of light”, the people who died over your country certainly did not.”

    As Kenny suggested rhetorically when he released him;

    Why show mercy to someone who showed no mercy…..because we hold ourselves to higher standards.

    I was watching Louis Theroux in San Quentin last night talking to someone sentenced to something like 1,700 years and it just came across as daft.

    We decided to show compassion to a dieing man even though he was a murderer because that is what our justice system says you should do.

    He was treated the same as anyone else, if he was dieing and could be allowed to die at home without being at risk or a risk to others then the rules say he should be released.

    We prosecuited him under the rule of law and released him under the rule of law, and we didn’t altered, twisted or bend it to get our man our keep him inside till he rotted.

    Peter.

  50. Peter – if still there it was the right decision even if it turns out that unforeeably

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