Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). Thirteen points equals the biggest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the election (it’s been hit twice before, both in April).

All the normal caveats apply – sure, it could be the start of larger Labour leads or it could just be normal random variation around the 10 or 11 point leads we’ve been seeing of late. That said, I personally wouldn’t be surprised if we did see bigger Labour leads in the coming days, it is far from unknown for local election victories to give parties a boost (from having the aura of success about them and “looking like a winner”). Equally, it’s far from guaranteed to happen. As ever, time will tell.


401 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 44, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. @ Max

    “I read the comments on this board long before posting, it was the one sided ness of it all, and the fact you lot dominated unchallenged that actually inspired me to start posting here, so don’t blame the decline on me.”

    Max your comments are partisan in the extreme and quite against the ethos of this board. The above comment of yours proves it I’m afraid where you come across as some kind of self appointed vigilante. We’re not interested in your views on ‘the gays’, we’re here to talk about opinion polls. Please keep your personal opinions to yourself.

  2. Regarding Max,he is young and has chazupsa.Probably
    spelt that wrong but you know what I mean.What does
    concern me is why he is wasting so much of his precious
    youth arguing with all and sundry and drinking cider at 11
    am and eating hotpots for goodness sake.Where are your
    friends Max,people of your own age?

  3. @PeterCairns

    “Finish the post I am on tender hooks……”

    good manners? offensiveness? his own lack of consequence? his inability to corrrectly assign gender?

    Take your pick or add one of your own. I’m done feeding him.

  4. Peter,

    Don’t it just? We frankly need to get some more lustre around here, and make ourselves a ‘shining beacon’ of discussion like the proverbial ‘city on the hill’ to reach even grander heights!

  5. Ann:

    There are a couple of spellings, but the most common is ‘Chutzpah’. Glad to see Yiddish is going strong though, regardless of typos.

  6. I think that’s the Magners kicking in.

    I made a comment on the previous thread about how the Libdems were over estimated on all the London polls compared to how the votes actually came in.
    I wondered whether anyone had an opinion on why this might be?

  7. @Ann

    “Where are your friends Max, people of your own age?”

    So tempting to comment…

  8. Hooded

    I could not understand the raison d’etre for the ‘re-launch’.

    There was no evidence that the boat had sunk, merely wallowing with a few leaks that need plugging.

    The Agreement has to be kept to and was already launched in the Rose Garden. The HoL reform has to go ahead because it is in the Agreement. When I say ‘go ahead’ ………

  9. Max
    In the words of your leader, Calm Down Dear.
    Or actually..

    All
    In the words of Mr Winner, Calm Down Dear.

    While Max may be saying things which have offended people, it’s best to ignore the posts and let AW deal with the posts when he has the time (or when Max doesn’t continue because he isn’t replying to people replying to him).

    I think we’ve all learnt the lesson of being overly partisan the hard way on this site (or perhaps it was just me that ended up being moderated?) and since Max is relatively new to posting here, he’s learning the same as the rest of us have.

  10. Did Max have a few too many celebratory drinks?

    Anyways – to try and swing us back on polls!
    Its interesting to see Obama VS Romney in polls, and whilst worrying that Romney does better on the economy, quite frankly – so did Sarkozy; but in even more areas!

    Seems the perception that ‘rich = good economy’ is very deeply embedded in the public consciousness, yet at the same time it appears many ‘think’ Obama will be better for them. It seems to me to be one of those misunderstandings of what the economy means. E.g. GDP VS your own situation.

    Certainly Obama is better in the places that count: the middle class (terrible share for Romney there, election crippling in fact); Taxes; Jobs (this is very tight however and Obama will have to work hard here – hopefully this won’t cause overspending in swing states and underspending in ‘loyal’ ones); Social Security.

    On the other ‘bonus features’ Obama is doing very well – especially Foreign Policy (if Obama/Romney cancel each other out on the other areas, this is what Obama can win on). But that ‘Standing up for the Middle Class’ is quite good (albeit a terrible question in my eyes, but I am guessing in the US this wouldn’t be seen as a negative like ‘he will only stand up for the middle class, not the poor’ – seeing as Middle is basically a collect all term?)

    Be an interesting run up to the election but I have a feeling its going to be a dull election – mostly with the winner called far in advance. Romney/Obama have made their nests – the public have made their opinions up.

  11. Hooded man,I would have thought that if you consider
    last weeks election results and the current polls,the
    goverment ARE in trouble! IMO.

  12. @Cloudspotter

    “I wondered whether anyone had an opinion on why this might be?”

    I guess the most obvious possibility is differential turnout – that hard core LDs (which is all there is at the moment) really didn’t see much value in voting in a clear Con-Lab contest. Unless they had a clear preference for Boris or Ken, it’s easy to see them not bothering.

  13. Back to polling;

    I know that the effects of the relaunch and Queens speech won’t come out in the polls until tomorrow, but even most Cons I know seem to have rated it as a rather non-event. I expect a steady lead for Labour over the next week, about the same as the 8-11 we’ve been seeing recently, with perhaps one or two hitting higher.

    Also, apparently Lab have formed a coalition to take control of Stirling from the SNP. Ahhhh, the local elections. Just when you think it’s all over.

  14. Hooded Man,

    I tend to agree with you about the relaunch and the Queens speech ( Max is it okay to say Queens?).

    With little ability at the moment to revive the economy, although I have no doubt they are genuinely trying, my worry would be that they look down the list of public concerns to find something salient to talk about.

    After the economy and unemployment you don’t have to look to far down the list to find crime and immigration.

    Given the last few days headlines about Rochdale, I’d hate to see a move to the right to try an reclaim the initiative.

    That’s not to say that crime and immigration aren’t issues the public don’t want addressed but that for a government in difficulty to be pushed to address them to change the news narrative probably wouldn’t give us the well thought through policies we need.

    Peter.

  15. Fraser:

    I’ve got to be honest, I thought Sarkozy did remarkably well. He lost the 1st ballot for the 1st time ever (for a sitting president), Le Pen endorsed no-one and the leftist and centrist candidates both endorsed Hollande. I’m amazed Sarkozy kept it to within 5 or even 10 points, let alone 3.

  16. Cloudspotter:

    I suspect there’s a suppression of the LD vote currently, as many, even the hardcore LDers, aren’t overly chuffed with their party, and didn’t expect a good result.
    The LDs need to get rid of this expectation (no easy task) of failure before the 2015 election or else it could really eat into their vote in Lab or three-way marginals.

  17. Tinged
    I was never moderated in my previous visits, although AW did once alter the words with which I described Rebekah Brooks (quite rightly) as one should never speak of a woman in that way even though ………***$$$!!!!.

  18. @ Scotswaehae

    “(PS, as a heads up, “the gays” don’t exist as a group, it’s about as offensive as “the Jews” or “the Blacks”, try saying Gay people in future posts)”

    Wait! What? Yes we do! I use that phrase all the time. Maybe it depends on the context though.

    Allright, I need to get out of here and go take care of my work for the day (this is what happens when one gets sleep deprived, they get distracted from other things on fun British political blogs)

    @ Mark Watson

    “Max offends me not because of his politics, hey some of my best friends are conservative, but because he is offensive.
    His contributions often sink well below the ethical and intellectual norms that others adhere to.
    He is morphing from an eager yet unwise participant into a troll like presence that appears anxious to domnate the board.
    ‘ The gays’ – max this is just not on.”

    Well I use the term “the gays” from time to time. I guess it can be offensive depending on the context. Max is rubbing salt in the wound of Amendment One and being unneccessarily aggressive. I don’t see why he’s doing that. There’s no need.

    @ Max

    “Believe me they try. When I said gays favour the left I was called homophobic because i was supposedly basing how people vote based on their sexuality, yet polling proves it.”

    Well sexual orientation can affect voting habits (though it’s a little less dramatic in Great Britain where I imagine that your gay factory workers and gay truck drivers and gay restaurant waiters have probably always voted Labour, your super wealthy”posh” gays probably have always voted Tory, your academics and white collar professional middle class gays have always voted for the Lib Dems, and where your gay Scots who are still fuming over the 1707 Act of Union and refuse to call themselves “British” have probably voted for the SNP). I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.

    “People from one area largely going into another. I myself have spilled over from Kent, into a part of London (still kentish address) able to vote in London election. Bexley and Bromley would still be quite Tory without us, but they would be a lot less so, it’s the spillover from the kent part that makes them do so well in Bex and Brom.”

    Well, um, for the most part (and there are always exceptions to this rule), blacks in North Carolina have been there for a really long time. In fact, it might interest you to know that the first blacks in the United States arrived before the Mayflower did.

    @ Robin

    “What puzzles me is how a discussion of polling, and what affects it and what it affects, has anything to do with one’s political views. How can there be a left/right bias when we are discussing matters which do not have a left/right context.”

    There can be bias in terms of how we interpret the polls. We may interpret them more favorably or less favorably depending on who we want to see win.

  19. Quincel

    I made a point on the thread at the time – Hollande may have been boosted slightly by people just saying they are going to vote for him – going along with the flow of the country/friends/family. In the end they never intended to or were best ‘undecided’.

    I found the yougov poll very enlightening, generally Hollande was only trusted ensure the welfare of people financially. In all other regards crime/foreign policy/immigration he did rather poor. And quite frankly to have a ‘landslide’ you need to be strong across the political divides. Hollande in the end was not strong enough.

    @SCOTSWAEHAE

    Its interesting, if a bit shocking that Labour are turning over a left wing administration to give the Tories power.
    I have a feeling the SNP may have turned away when Labour looked to set up a majority, and so Labour went elsewhere to get their influence.

  20. Can I just say, my new favourite news outlet is the Taiwanese animations. They’re hilarious. Seriously, the most twisted but serious take on the news in the rest of the world (my personal favourite is the Scottish Independence one, which is to be held on the 400th anniversary of Mel Gibson’s death apparently).

    Anyone know what time the poll will roughly come out at? I’m leaving Spain to go to the UK’s soggy shores tomorrow, so need to get to bed early!

  21. Robin
    Yes i can see that for the mayoral election. But the same pattern exists for the assembly polls.

  22. @ Quincel

    I’m surprised by the margin in the French elections too. But a win is a win for Hollande.

    @ Fraser

    “Its interesting to see Obama VS Romney in polls, and whilst worrying that Romney does better on the economy, quite frankly – so did Sarkozy; but in even more areas!

    Seems the perception that ‘rich = good economy’ is very deeply embedded in the public consciousness, yet at the same time it appears many ‘think’ Obama will be better for them. It seems to me to be one of those misunderstandings of what the economy means. E.g. GDP VS your own situation.

    Certainly Obama is better in the places that count: the middle class (terrible share for Romney there, election crippling in fact); Taxes; Jobs (this is very tight however and Obama will have to work hard here – hopefully this won’t cause overspending in swing states and underspending in ‘loyal’ ones); Social Security.

    On the other ‘bonus features’ Obama is doing very well – especially Foreign Policy (if Obama/Romney cancel each other out on the other areas, this is what Obama can win on). But that ‘Standing up for the Middle Class’ is quite good (albeit a terrible question in my eyes, but I am guessing in the US this wouldn’t be seen as a negative like ‘he will only stand up for the middle class, not the poor’ – seeing as Middle is basically a collect all term?)

    Be an interesting run up to the election but I have a feeling its going to be a dull election – mostly with the winner called far in advance. Romney/Obama have made their nests – the public have made their opinions up.”

    Obama still trails on the economy because of the jobs situation. It’s a serious problem for him. But he’ll win the message of who can best stand up for the middle class. And yeah, as we’ve discussed, middle class has a very different connotation (and perhaps meaning) in British terms and American terms.

    Presidential reelections are typically not narrow. We decide either we can’t stand the guy and throw him out on his ass or we decide he’s decent enough to be reelected to a second term (even if we don’t love the guy). I’m not saying history will dicate the result now but that’s the historical pattern. Most presidents tend to increase their percentage of the vote upon reelection to a second term (if they get reelected).

    Romney and the GOP keep making a lot of unforced errors too and that helps Obama. I don’t think you can win a presidential election on unearned runs though so we’ll see.

  23. Quincel ,thanks for the correction.It is one of those words
    that the incredibly rich English language does not have
    quite the right fit for.Trying to think of one,brash is the only
    one that comes to mind,but not quite right.

  24. Howard,
    Oh, just me then.

    All
    I do wonder who will get credit or misery for the measures laid out in the queen’s speech (if casual observers actually took any notice).
    Most of the things that I think will be popular with the public are largely LibDem proposals so they should, in theory, get the credit – but it may be lost as ‘coalition policies’.
    Much like how the popular budget proposals were largely LibDem proposals, but they gained no credit – whereas the unpopular (but they would argue necessary and largely misunderstood) proposals were Tory proposals which weren’t enthusiastically backed by the LibDems.

    The only upsets that I can see coming along, from the proposals, are the HoL reform and the ‘spying laws’.
    HoL reforms, as has already discussed, may cause some upset to Tory voters (although probably only a very small but vocal minority).
    But the ‘spying laws’, which are essentially illiberal, could cause problems for the LibDems in recovering lost support (or potentially draining away from what little they have left).

  25. Fraser:

    I think local council coalitions in Scotland tend to be more common, due to our voting system here. It’s very difficult to become a majority administration in Scotland (which is why Lab and SNP councils are so impressive), so parties are more willing to compromise. To be honest, I’m more surprised that Lab and the SNP went into a coalition for a council (though I have to say I think it’s good for Scottish politics that the two main parties are less destructive in their attitude to one another).

  26. Good news for Theresa May, the Abu Qatada appeal has just been rejected.

  27. @Max, @SoCal
    I can’t actually find any polling on gender orientation and voting, except for self-selecting (thus dodgy) polling for gay sites – one that found Tories ahead in 2010, one that found them behind (bringing even more evidence to the polls being dodgy).

    Anybody actually have any data on this?

    I would have assumed, again I have no evidence, that traditionally the ‘gay vote’ was predominantly liberal (as liberal parties are pro-gay rights) as opposed to Tory or Labour.

  28. Looking back at the various american polls of the past month, I dont see how Romney has a chance unless Obama starts scoring some pretty serious own goals. Even where Romney is given a better rating for ‘the economy’, whatever that means, it’s marginal when compared to the ten point leads that Obama has in some areas.

  29. Howard,

    Yes of course, I was using their words, not mine (ours). Was really a reaffirmation of vows, as most media described it, after the tricky elections last week and murmurings from both camps….

    Ann in W,

    A month or two of separation in the polls Is too early to call longer term troubles. The gap last week with real votes was a lot narrower….

    Peter,

    Yes, there is no need to lurch to the right. And Cameron won’t do it. But that’s not to say they won’t remove him to facilitate said lurch…..

    Apols

  30. SCOTSWAEHAE,

    Good news for Abu Qatada… Theresa May is still home secretary…

    Couldn’t resist that one!

    Peter.

  31. @Socal

    “There can be bias in terms of how we interpret the polls. We may interpret them more favorably or less favorably depending on who we want to see win.”

    Sure. But while our political views might affect our interpretation, they don’t provide any relevant information. Our views are not relevant to the discussion – what matters is the views of (appreciable numbers of) voters.

    “I think Con VI will go up because gay marriage is an abomination” makes no sense whatsoever (one person’s view of gay marriage is of no consequence), whereas “I think Con VI will go up because many floating voters think gay marriage is an abomination” is a legitimate argument that might sensibly be made by those of any political persuasion.

    The first statement results in a flame war, the second a non-partisan discussion of the demographic of floating voters and their views on social issues.

  32. @PETER CAIRNS
    I would expect a Scots Nat to keep quiet about being made a fool of by clever Arabs.

    ANN IN WALES
    Quite agree, this government is in trouble. Its NOT going to collapse next week, but it looks foolish and incompetent.
    AMBER
    Thanks my dear.

  33. cloud spotter

    I think that’s the Magners kicking in.

    I made a comment on the previous thread about how the Lib Dems were over estimated on all the London polls compared to how the votes actually came in.
    I wondered whether anyone had an opinion on why this might be?

    Max asked a similar thing about the low UKIP figure (2%) for Mayor before also against polling. I said that that I suspected that some candidates got squeezed by the big personality battle and that I didn’t think the Lib Dem’s real percentage is 4% either. Last week London was full of people saying they though Brian was the best candidate but they were voting for Boris/Ken because they knew he couldn’t win.

    Of course you could have given your ‘first’ vote to Brian and the ‘second’ to Boris/Ken but not many people seem to really understand the implications of the voting system. In retrospect I wonder if this is why Jenny Jones came third – because she clearly instructed her voters how to vote so they didn’t fall into the ‘must vote for Boris or Ken’ trap.

    Either that or someone started a nasty rumour that Brian puts ice in his cider (I mean Max you’re not helping yourself here – I drink cider too but Magners is the classic cider that doesn’t taste of anything so that teenagers can get drunk as quickly as possible. It’s White Lightning with an advertising budget)

  34. Yet another fine example of bipartisanship from Peter.

    As for personal comments about my girlfriend, or my friends in general, they are all mostly back in Kent, and the ones here at uni, have exams or are revising.

    And what’s wrong with saying “the gays” it’s jsut a short version of “the gay people”

    The British people = the brits
    the english people = the english
    the black people = the blacks
    the hispanic people = the hispanics
    The Conservative People (Members) = The Conservatives

    The Liberal Democrats = The Lib Dems or The Liberals or The Libs
    The Gay people = The gays.

    There’s nothing wrong with saying “the gays”

  35. Roger,

    ” It’s White Lightning with an advertising budget”

    Is that Magers or the Government!

    Peter.

  36. Roger,

    ” It’s White Lightning with an advertising budget”

    Is that Mangers or the Government!

    Peter.

  37. Max,

    “I think, and maybe you can correct me on this, is it generally agreed that Republicans will at least gain some college votes and not the other way around and are unlikely to remain the same?”

    That’s what I would have thought, but I’m no expert. If SoCal thinks otherwise, his would be a more informed opinion than mine.

    Now that the Republican nomination is effectively sorted, state-by-state polling should become increasingly frequent in the run-up to November. You should keep your eye on some website which keeps track of polling averages for each state. My website of choice will be FiveThirtyEight again. I gather that Nate Silver incorporates *all* published polls into his projections, but they are weighted according to various factors such as the pollster’s previous accuracy, and modified in an attempt to downplay any house effects. His was also the only such website in 2008 (that I was aware of) to apply these averages, via thousands of simulations, to estimate a probability of either candidate winning each state and a statistical expectation for the resulting electoral college.

  38. Roly,

    If you call taking three years to die in agony of cancer instead of three months taking advantage you could be right.

    Every time I see him on the news I can’t say he strikes me as someone who got of light.

    Peter.

  39. @Roger

    Totally disagree with you, Magners is the nicest, and everyone I know likes it, and of the cider drinkers amongst us, there’s agreement that its our favourite, its just too expensive, so usually have to settle for the Vodka Redbull. Magners has the best flavour, in 2nd it’s either Bulmers or Thathcers.

    It’s strongbow thats horrible, its got a horrible chemically taste. like its never seen an apple in its life but just made with apple flavouring. And the guys will know what im talking about when i say it smells like that horrible urine smell you get in the guys toilets if they’re not cleaned regularly.

  40. The relaunch and the queens speech dont show any sign of a government tkaing back control of the political agenda.
    I think the last month or so will turn out to be the equivalent of john majors ‘black wedensday’ – they have lost the trust of large sections of the electrote.
    Camerons must fear that the rest of his premiership will be dogged with fighting his increasinly restive backbenchers whilst having his political energy increasingly sapped by the sucking mire of the leveson enquiry.
    Unless there is a marked pick up in the economy soon, then the tories will contune to languish in the polls (although I cant see them going much below their bedrock support of around 30%).
    Simaralrly the lib dems will continue to bump along on around 10% – this probly represents their bedrock support.
    Another shoeing at the local elections in 2013 might finally see the lib dems turn on clegg and bring down the coaltion – but they do seem to have remarkable powers of self delusion on that front.
    The challenge for labour is to go beyond the ‘reverser beauty contest’ of poltics and win over the large chunk of the popualtion who voting ‘other’ or ‘none of the above’ – they have a real opportunity (esp with the anti-austerity tide in growing all accross europe) to beak with the neo-liberal economic dogma and make some bold policies aimed at reducing the wealth gap and investing in things like social housing. They proably wont – as the tempation will be to play safe and aim mererly appear more compentant than the government (not a huge challenge) and not do anything to frigten the horses.

  41. Roland,you and I have had our moments,you once compared me to a dead sheep, but I respect your
    political nous.Being provocative here,but what did you think of Dennis Skinners interjection in the Commons
    today.I only ask because it has been given a lot of
    coverage.

  42. Good Evening All.
    Youth is wasted on the young, Oscar said, and sometimes young people might waste it on UKPR.

    1975-1978: I was so determined to avoid a third class degree, and I felt so intellectually inferior to the apparently confident ‘posh boys’ that I spent 8 hours a day in the Radcliffe Camera, and would not have had time to be on here. I regret being so ‘good’.

    With regard to todays political landscape, it seems that the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are strapped to the mast, threatened by Scylla and Charybdis, and just hoping that they will come through by 2015.

    I under estimated ED, though, and it is hard to see Labour dropping below 38%, while Tim Mongomerie has pointed out very few ruling parties actually increase their vote in the second GE.

  43. @Roger

    maybe they changed the recipe for magners in the last 5 years or so, as everyone i know who likes cider likes it. And its really expensive too, if it was rubbish, why would it be so pricey?

    And I’ve never heard of White Lightning, maybe showing your age there a bit ;)

  44. “sometimes young people might waste it on UKPR.”

    Believe me, after exams, I wont be here for a loOOOOOONG time, (gives you something to look forward to) i only visit here in between revision breaks.

  45. Beeb24 re Greece :-
    Leftwing leader Alexis Tsipras fails to build coalition

  46. Prediction for tonight:

    Con 31.78
    Lab 42.33
    LD 8.84

  47. predictions!

    Okay. Abacus. Wind vane. Compass. Survey feedback. Movie Reviews.

    Something in the air.

    okay:

    Con 28
    Lab 48
    LD 9

  48. Nick P,

    “…Abacus…”

    Suddenly my Atari ST-based calculations seem positively state-of-the-art!

  49. While I’m in a slightly ratty mood can I point out that Roland should stop doing his ‘poor ickle me’ act right now. He tries to pull this thing about being oppressed by the evil red hordes on here every so often and it’s always deeply unconvincing.

    This is partly because he’s more than capable of looking after himself and partly because there are there are lots of other Conservatives and right-leaning commenters who will say something now and then (even Max manages to fit in the odd word at rare intervals ;) ).

    But as Anthony always points out the main reason is the “You only sing when you’re winning” effect. The Tories are not doing well in the polls and on a polling site there is little opportunity for the blues to brag. Apparently previous Labour nadirs have produced a similar absence of red.

    I suspect the only reason that Roland is putting it on is that Anthony has said he’s out for the evening so the cat’s away. (It’s Mayor-making so it always seems to go on forever then everyone gets drunk).

  50. Max

    As a proud resident of Kent I feel obliged to point you in the direction of Biddenden, a proper creator of real ciders.

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