Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). Thirteen points equals the biggest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the election (it’s been hit twice before, both in April).

All the normal caveats apply – sure, it could be the start of larger Labour leads or it could just be normal random variation around the 10 or 11 point leads we’ve been seeing of late. That said, I personally wouldn’t be surprised if we did see bigger Labour leads in the coming days, it is far from unknown for local election victories to give parties a boost (from having the aura of success about them and “looking like a winner”). Equally, it’s far from guaranteed to happen. As ever, time will tell.


401 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 44, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. @Roly1

    You forgot to mention PC rightwingers in your post. People who say they are Conservative but actually pander to the left.

  2. Hey guys, hows it going.

    Just to give you a quick heads up of the local election impact in my town Rugby. Tho the Labour vote went up and the Tory vote went down only 2 seats changed hands in the whole constituency. Scratch the surface and the Tory vote went down by 6 percent to 38% and the Labour vote up 4% to 33% from 2011. Predict that if the polls continue in this vane the seat will get VERY marginal in 2015. It was in 1997 when Andy King took it.

    Speaking to a mate of mine (Tory) on Friday in the pub and he said th that Labour could never take a 20 + lead in the polls cos the LD score is so low. I am not so sure. Is that possible??

  3. @Adrian

    “Every year they say New Hampshire will be close, but it never is – it even went Dem with Kerry.”

    Bush won it in 2000, so Republicans have won their recently, not to mention they control both NH congressional districts at the moment. Then add in the extra bonus points that NH see Romney as a sort of favoured son. He’s from neighbouring Massachusetts and actually lives in NH now. Plus there is a campaign in NH to get a more Libertarian electorate, they’re encouraging 20,000 Libertarians to move there. Libertarians in the US, such as Paul etc, actually tend to favour Republicans more on issues such as the economy which will be the main issue in this election.

    So it’s very conceivable that Romney could take New Hampshire. You’d have to ask Nate Silver though. He seems to be the one you should go to on this sort of thing.

  4. US election again:
    http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

    Looks like Obama is ahead in every category and issue apart from “Who do you trust to run the economy”.

    So if it becomes a single-issue campaign he could be in trouble, if the Dems can make it a broad campaign he will be comfortable.

  5. Roly:

    Have you ever considered that its not the fact that you and max are tories that makes people find you both thoroughly obnoxious?

    I

  6. @Adrian “Looks like Obama is ahead in every category and issue apart from “Who do you trust to run the economy”.”

    A certain wiseman from Arkansas once said “It’s the Economy Stupid.”

    This is why I’m worried about Cameron’s impact over here, the one thing Conservatives have going for them is that we are trusted on the economy, if we start to lose that through the incompetence of a certain leader, then we’re finished.

  7. Roly,
    You bring a charm and impudent wit to many of your posts, I missed youn when your were away.

  8. “Have you ever considered that its not the fact that you and max are tories that makes people find you both thoroughly obnoxious?”

    I think we considered it, but then the evidence suggests that it is in fact, because we are tories, that’s why tories here are so rare, facing extinction, because they have been hunted or attacked by this sort of mob mentality.

    When Conservatives make up about 33% to 36% of the population, yet the only regular tory posters are me roly and Bluebob (maybe Colin) you’ve got to ask why it is that this site is dominated by labour and the left?

  9. @AW
    I fully appreciate who has the whip hand here and its not me. However, when one cannot discuss voter race or religion without abuse from certain posters, one wonders if the modern day view of what creates offence is not a bit screwed up.

  10. Mi tiepin ist shokin, shud ave sed

    Roly,
    You bring a charm and impudent wit to many of your posts, I missed you when you were away.

  11. @Roly “I fully appreciate who has the whip hand here and its not me. However, when one cannot discuss voter race or religion without abuse from certain posters, one wonders if the modern day view of what creates offence is not a bit screwed up.”

    Agreed, it seems that anything we say are not allowed to offend anybody, but if your on the left it doesn’t matter who you offend. You get put into moderation for the slightest thing nowadays.

  12. ‘@PAULCROFT
    I draw your attention to JIM JAM’S 5.20 post.

    @jim jam
    Thank you my dear fellow.

  13. @MAX
    Have no doubt about Colin, he, as THE BARONESS used to say, “is one of us”.

  14. @ Michael Elliott

    “That’s strange. I should remember that – but, then, I did consume an awful lot of beer that night.”

    Heh. I don’t drink so maybe that’s why I remember (but I may have had a glass of champagne that night). Of course I had been in Virginia that day for 14 hours and was nervously sweating out the results.

  15. Max:

    If you wre the most left wing contributor here I would still find you obnoxious for trying to make fun of a councillor who has just lost his seat and then, when this is pointed out to you, not having the good grace to apologise.

    As to why right wing people don’t contribute more, perhaps they’re too bust reading the sun and the mail, but the option is certainly there for them to do so in as large a number as they care to.

  16. @Paul “If you wre the most left wing contributor here I would still find you obnoxious for trying to make fun of a councillor who has just lost his seat and then,”

    I did no such thing.

    “As to why right wing people don’t contribute more, perhaps they’re too bust reading the sun and the mail, but the option is certainly there for them to do so in as large a number as they care to.”

    I think there’s more to it than that. Likewise why aren’t you guys off reading the Guardian and Mirror? Youc can’t blame it on the papers. The only reason I post so much is to try and make up the balane, if I didn’t, there’d just a sea of red, on this site, and those who are red, but cant be bothered to find out how to change their background.

    I post one comment, even the most innocent of comments, celebrating Boris win, or the win last night in North Carolina, and you get a wave of attacks, which are highly partisan. But when Labour won 800 councilors, that’s all anyone on the site was talking about, and people doing nothing than talking about how much booze they were consuming to celebrate went unhindered, whereas I did the same this morning, and got attacked.

    There is a clear view that left wing views are allowed, but if your right then, then its offensive. Your allowed to say your in favour of gay marriage, but not allowed to say your opposed. You’re allowed to celebrate when gay marriage is legalised in a jurisdiction, but not when its banned.

  17. @ Max

    I would agree that we have fewer Tory posters theses days. There were more before you came along.

    I have found a feww taking over the Dover thread where they were able to have a conversation with out the need to defend their cause for others.

  18. @DAVE “I would agree that we have fewer Tory posters theses days. There were more before you came along.”

    Again, that comment was just an empty smear, but will probably be tolerated due to double standards.

    I read the comments on this board long before posting, it was the one sided ness of it all, and the fact you lot dominated unchallenged that actually inspired me to start posting here, so don’t blame the decline on me.

  19. @ Adrian B

    “Every year they say New Hampshire will be close, but it never is – it even went Dem with Kerry.”

    It was still close though. 1992, 2000, and 2004 were very close votes in New Hampshire. I don’t remember 1996 off the top of my head but I think it was a wide margin for Clinton. 2008 was the year it wasn’t close. Before 1992, it was one of the most solidly Republican states in the union.

    @ Max

    “Yes but District of Columbia is the most Democrat district in the country. Because it has a large amount of one certain Demographic that vote Democrat by about 90% This demographic however, are able to cross the aisle and vote with Republicans on the issue of Gay marriage, as this demographic, as well as another demographic mainly in Florida, Texas etc is highly religious.”

    Democratic*, Max, Democratic*. Not “Democrat.” :) Anyway, it’s got nothing to do with religion. It’s more cultural. African Americans are the least supportive of same-sex marriage of any demographic. African Americans are the majority of the population in the District of Columbia. But opposition is not uniform (especially considering the large numbers of wealthy and highly educated African Americans in DC) and views are changing. Latinos have traditionally been opposed to same-sex marriage though not nearly as much and it is changing as well.

  20. It it possible to load excel graphs into the text on here?

    I have a graph of vote share spread over six years in one ward and it makes interesting reading but you need to see the graph and not just the data to pick out the trends.

  21. @Socali

    Glad you got which 2 demographics I was refering to, I had to simple infer because to say that the B word, or the H word favour democrats would probably be held as racist and the Mod police would be on my case, despite polling saying otherwise.

    And I can hardly say “they vote democratic” because that sounds like the other team is cheating :P It’s such a good name, because everyone (well almost) is Democratic, in the sense that no one wants dictatorship, but they’re not Democratic in terms of supporting, the Democratic party.

    That the other thing “The DEMOCRATIC party” well surely the other parties are democratic as well :P we didn’t pick John McCain’s name out of a hat :)

  22. @Max

    “@DAVE “I would agree that we have fewer Tory posters theses days. There were more before you came along.”

    Again, that comment was just an empty smear, but will probably be tolerated due to double standards.”

    Don’t be so easily offended. It could equally mean that you just missed a time when there were more Tory posters. In fact I seem to recall a lot of Tory posters around the 2010 election.

    That isn’t surprising – it’s easier to post when your side are doing well (lots of positive things to comment on), and harder when the political pendulum seems to be swinging away from you.

  23. @Max

    The names of political parties are often long removed from their origins. On the other side of the fence in the US I suspect that the Democrats do actually endorse the US Republic.

  24. @TheSheep

    “Don’t be so easily offended. ”

    Was that sarcasm??? People here claim to take offence at anything they don’t agree with.

    I don’t agree with Gay Marriage, then 2 gays come out of nowhere and moan they are offended etc. I say we should cut back the public sector, then people who work in the public sector come out and complain they are offended.

    I agree with Roly, I don’t really care if your offended, I don’t say anything you should be offended by, I don’t say anything I’m ashamed of.

    The worst part is where they sort of trap you in a pinsir movement, one will pretend like they are asking a genuine question about your faith, which you kindly reply to, and then another pops up to complain how offensive that was etc when all you were telling them is the answer to their question.

  25. @ Adrian B

    “North Carolina had been almost an exact tie for weeks so the actual flip to Obama wasn’t actually that much of a surprise. I actually thought he was going to get Missouri before Indy – no chance of that now.

    And actually demographic changes have now made Virginia even more safe for Obama and possible North Carolina too, although a swing back to GOP will probably neuter N.C back to GOP.”

    Here’s the thing though. That swing back to the GOP hasn’t occurred in North Carolina. By all accounts it should have but it hasn’t. That’s a major problem for the GOP.

    I wouldn’t rule out Missouri going for Obama this year. It was traditionally the bellweather in the past. I think he’s more likely to gain Arizona and Georgia though.

  26. @ Roly

    You know I enjoy your contributions, even though you are a Tory. :-)

  27. @Socali

    So you expect Obama to actually make gains this year? I find that odd as acutally, theres a lot of disproval to Obama, and the only reason he’s winning is because Romney is seen as a bad choice also.

    The lack of Swing in North Carolina is indeed because of spillover of Blacks into the state which support Obama by about 98%

    I can’t see him winning Missouri, Arizona or Georgia tho. If he won Georgia, I think the Republicans would have to pack up and leave.

  28. It seems that as well as Anthony’s well documented myths about polling their are also now myths about Polling report.

    It has a left wing bias;

    No it does not, their may be more left of centre posters but by and large you get both sides of the argument particularly on economic issues.

    There are very few Tories;

    Again untrue their are plenty, not all post under party colours but most are clear about who they support and why. However ,though somewhat to the annoyance of some of their parties faithful, by and large they do not portray anyone who isn’t a Tory as a pinko commie.

    Anthony discriminates against certain posters because of their affiliations;

    Wrong again, people get moderated for being off topic and offensive and interpret that as bias, but then offensive people tend to take sanction badly.

    This is one of the best moderated sites and places for discussion in British politics and long may it continue.

    The net being a free place anyone who doesn’t like how it is run and it’s rules is free to leave.

    I personally find it a place populated by well balanced people; even if a few are only balanced because they have a chip on both shoulders.

    Peter.

  29. “It has a left wing bias;”

    Yes it does, you outnumber us by miles, and are able to post partisan comments unhindered.

    “There are very few Tories;”

    Well yeas, theres only 4 regulars, occasionally you get someone pop up but they usually post once or twice then leave because of the left wingers.

    “Anthony discriminates against certain posters because of their affiliations;”

    No one has argued this, that I’m aware of.

    “The net being a free place anyone who doesn’t like how it is run and it’s rules is free to leave.”

    Which is what you want to happen so you will be the only dominant force.

  30. @ Michael Elliott

    “Not confusing with Virginia, but I did get the number too high. It was at 63% Obama on FiveThirtyEight, having passed 50% shortly after the financial crises and steadily worked towards 60% over the subsequent weeks. Virginia got up to 97% Obama!

    Of course, I don’t mean to imply that the FiveThirtyEight predictions are the sole guage of what should have been shocking at the time – just that they show what sort of things the polls were saying.”

    Fair enough.

    I knew Obama would win Virginia in early 2007 (I thought it would be one of the only states he would win if the GE nominee at the time).

    @ Jim Jam

    “Max is untypical of contributers on here.”

    Very true. I kind of find it buzz killing. I like this blog because I can relax here and combat a lot of the stresses in my life. It’s nice not to have to deal with people who feel the need to go at it with each other.

  31. @ Jim Jam
    “Max is untypical of contributers on here.”

    Yes we discussed this just now,the blue background for one thing.

    @Socali, I thought we were here to DISCUSS polls, I didn’t know you came here looking for broad consensus. Surely it’s not much of a discussion if you all agree.

  32. Max:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t AW, our benign Overlord ;) a Conservative? I tend to find here that most Con posters here tend to be as neutral as the Lab (ie mainly neutral/speculative, with a wee bit of pro-party bias). In fact, some of the posters I usually don’t agree with are the ones I find most insightful, including the Con and SNP posters.

    Anyway, as AW will probably say if we all continue this, let’s bury the hatchet and try to be as non-partisan as we can in the future, ok?

    (PS, as a heads up, “the gays” don’t exist as a group, it’s about as offensive as “the Jews” or “the Blacks”, try saying Gay people in future posts)

  33. max: “i did no such thing”

    not only did you post a very unfunny post about your granny trying to get in touch with peter cairns you obviously felt it was so brilliantly hilarious that you repeated it almost immediately.

    You were criticised by a number of posters but still failed to apologise.

    Thos are facts and can be checked up on rather than wriggled out of.

    I should also mention I’ve no idea who anybody is on this site and am not in the last bothered by their political affiliations, just in the quality of their contributions. I was offended by your posts immediately and continuously, irrespective of your party allegiance.

  34. @Scots

    I’ve never questioned Anthony’s affiliation. I don’t like how you twist the argument.

    It’s about left wingers scaring off the right, it doesn’t matter who’s running the circus if the elephants have escaped the pen. You could have Thatcher herself running the site, that doesn’t mean the left would be any less attacking, in fact, they’d probably be more.

    When Robin posts her horrible comments about Thatcher being worse than pedophiles rapists and murderers, that’s nothing to do with Anthony. Ok he could have condemned it a little harder than he did, but then he’d probably be attacked for not being impartial.

  35. @Paul “not only did you post a very unfunny post about your granny trying to get in touch with peter cairns you obviously felt it was so brilliantly hilarious that you repeated it almost immediately.”

    Eh, ya talking bout me granny sturgeon??? That was real, not a joke.

    I’m serious. It’s true. The poor dears bins not been collected. She’s had to hire a fox (she pays him in bread) to get rid of the rubbish for her. her local council has gone downhill.

  36. @ Max

    Ken? Statgeek? There’s more Labour posters because shockingly they’re more willing to discuss polls. Go back to threads when Brown was in and you’ll see a similar disparity but in favour of Tories.

    At least have the honesty to admit that’s what you’re implying when you say your comments go moderated whilst Labour commentors don’t. I think any casual observer can see you’re not even trying to stay within the commenting rules, and because you post every three seconds it becomes easier to notice. The fact that AW is a Tory, and the person moderating you seems to have conveniently escaped your attention (must be the leftist PC brigade BBC lot again!) – but then it’s probably as convenient as your confusion over whether Colin’s a Tory.

  37. @ Max

    “Glad you got which 2 demographics I was refering to, I had to simple infer because to say that the B word, or the H word favour democrats would probably be held as racist and the Mod police would be on my case, despite polling saying otherwise.”

    Why would anyone call you a racist for saying that? That makes no sense.

    “And I can hardly say “they vote democratic” because that sounds like the other team is cheating It’s such a good name, because everyone (well almost) is Democratic, in the sense that no one wants dictatorship, but they’re not Democratic in terms of supporting, the Democratic party.”

    No, it’s just the proper name for the party. I’m not going to address the cheating stuff.

    “So you expect Obama to actually make gains this year? I find that odd as acutally, theres a lot of disproval to Obama, and the only reason he’s winning is because Romney is seen as a bad choice also.”

    I don’t know that he’ll make gains. He could. I mean, he would have made a lot of gains if he was facing Santorum or Gingrich (especially Gingrich).

    “The lack of Swing in North Carolina is indeed because of spillover of Blacks into the state which support Obama by about 98%”

    What do you mean by spillover? Blacks in North Carolina are citizens of North Carolina. They live there. They’re part of the population. They’re entitled to vote there and have their ballots counted equally as the others.

    “I can’t see him winning Missouri, Arizona or Georgia tho. If he won Georgia, I think the Republicans would have to pack up and leave.”

    In Arizona, there won’t be the John McCain home state advantage in place. Additionally, the Latino vote has swung so dramatically to Obama, that could affect the results in a state that has a large Latino population. Polls show a toss up in that state, some with Obama ahead.

    As to Georgia, it has many of the same demographics as North Carolina and polls show the state is competitive for the President. He only lost there by 5% last time (with a massive African American undervote). There is a potential for the Bradley Coalition to prevail there. That’s where he’s got the ability to win.

    As for Missouri, it’s a long shot but still a possibility simply due to the recovery of the auto industry and the growth of the manufacturing sector.

  38. @ Max

    I for one am happy to have you here. You bite at any thing any body posts. Then we can sit back and watch.

    But can we get back to the propose of the site.

    I have been listening to the Queens speech debate and have to say that there are no big policies in there. Nothing to shift the VI in favour of the Tories or Lib Dem.

    The way in which the House of Lords draft bill is framed makes you think it is well into the long grass.

    Improving the economy by reducing employees rights will not play well.

    It was also ED M’s best performance by a long way as well. Will this improve his ratings? I could not find any data for the leaders in last nights data was it there?

  39. @Craig “At least have the honesty to admit that’s what you’re implying”

    Well read again, that’s not what I’m implying. Whenever I post something the left kick up suck a fuss, that’s not Anthony’s fault. But certain comments do break the rules and go unmoderated, especially personal attacks on me because if Anthony tried to intervene and condemn it, he’d get a backlash.

    So no, I don’t blame Anthony, and it’s not what I’m trying to imply, like I said, even if Thatcher was in charge of this site she’d have a problem with you lot, it’s nothing to do with the person running their site, they can’t be held responsible for what you lot say, nor would I try to hold him responsible.

  40. What puzzles me is how a discussion of polling, and what affects it and what it affects, has anything to do with one’s political views. How can there be a left/right bias when we are discussing matters which do not have a left/right context.

    Certainly those coming at things from different perspectives (which need not be political) may have different views (e.g. I think Con VI will/will not recover because…) and their position on the left/right liberal/conservative axes may colour those views, but in the end the matter of whether Con VI will recover is not a party political matter. We can be right or wrong about how the polls will respond to particular events, but we can’t be right or left.

    One can readily say that Rose Garden Mk2 will not help Con VI (and may harm it) without in any way relying on a particular political standpoint (as ably demonstrated by Colin, for instance).

    In the end, the only appropriate response is the one that I have been trying to follow for the past week or so, and which Jim Jam has now adopted.

    DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS

    What the Kentish fails to recognise is that

  41. Oops, failed to delete a fragment that contravenes my own advice!!

  42. “Why would anyone call you a racist for saying that? That makes no sense.”

    Believe me they try. When I said gays favour the left I was called homophobic because i was supposedly basing how people vote based on their sexuality, yet polling proves it.

    “What do you mean by spillover?”

    People from one area largely going into another. I myself have spilled over from Kent, into a part of London (still kentish address) able to vote in London election. Bexley and Bromley would still be quite Tory without us, but they would be a lot less so, it’s the spillover from the kent part that makes them do so well in Bex and Brom.

    ON THE US

    I can’t imagine Obama making a swing of 5% in his favour when he’s a lot less popular now than in 2008.

  43. @Max
    But certain comments do break the rules and go unmoderated, especially personal attacks on me because if Anthony tried to intervene and condemn it, he’d get a backlash.
    Namely nearly all of yours, and AW doesn’t have the energy or the time to moderate them all, so is left having to leave the replies unmoderated for consistency. What is it with certain right-wing folk playing the perennial victim when they’re the most boisterous and loud-mouthed people out there?

  44. Max offends me not because of his politics, hey some of my best friends are conservative, but because he is offensive.
    His contributions often sink well below the ethical and intellectual norms that others adhere to.
    He is morphing from an eager yet unwise participant into a troll like presence that appears anxious to domnate the board.
    ‘ The gays’ – max this is just not on.

  45. Robin,

    Finish the post I am on tender hooks……

    Peter.

  46. @Mark

    But its conservative policies you find offensive. I don’t agree with gay marriage, that’s fact, it’s not offensive. I’m sure there’s stuff I like that you don’t agree with, I wouldn’t be offended if you told me you didnt agree with it.

  47. Gentlemen (and ladies), can we all please drop the personal and partisan comments and in particular stop responding to the ones other people make? PeterCairns is exactly correct in his post above, this is one of the best places to discuss politics on the internet and it would be a crying shame if it were to lose its lustre.

  48. @ Max

    “I thought we were here to DISCUSS polls, I didn’t know you came here looking for broad consensus. Surely it’s not much of a discussion if you all agree.”

    It’s not about consensus. It’s about the fact that posters from multiple different political backgrounds with very different perspectives (including some different intra party perspectives) all discuss their views politely with each other. They mostly manage to respectfully disagree with each other without giving up their personal beliefs but not resorting to attacks against each other and making obnoxious statements. Not only that, instead of screaming about their point of view, bloggers here will often research things and bring up links to show their evidence or will give people links to be helpful.

    Considering that this is a multi-partisan blog, it’s nothing short of amazing because most blogs I see where there is even remotely some civility are on blogs where everyone is of the same political persuasion (and even then, it’s touch and go).

    But this place is different. You don’t just have all the parties but you’ve got Blairite, Brownite, and Bennite Labour. You’ve got Lib Dems who support the coalition and those who hate it (as well as Lib Dems from the Social Democratic wing and those from the Liberal wing). You’ve got Scots Nats who are gradualists and those who aren’t. You’ve got Tories, some who love Nadine Dorries and some who can’t stand her. You’ve got Greens. I’ve even seen a few UKIPers. All with very strong beliefs and opinions and political identities. Most seem to be able to express their view without attacking others or deliberately saying things that they know will upset others.

    I also will add that there are plenty of Tories here who I like and get along with (and often agree with on a number of issues even though I self-identify as a leftwinger and a progressive).

  49. Colin,

    Agree with what you said up above about the ‘relaunch’ – if it was an attempt to come out fighting then they wouldn’t have burst through a soggy paper bag……..disappointing really, as was the drab laundry list on the goatskin vellum today…….starting to come across as hostages to fortune rather than masters of destiny – which is true of all governments, but the art is to make it appear not the case to the electorate…….thankfully the opposition have little to say which might solidify the gap, otherwise they’d be in real trouble!

  50. Quincel,

    Oh I like the idea of lustre, makes us sound oh so grand!

    Peter.

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