Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Others 17% (including UKIP on 8%). Thirteen points equals the biggest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the election (it’s been hit twice before, both in April).

All the normal caveats apply – sure, it could be the start of larger Labour leads or it could just be normal random variation around the 10 or 11 point leads we’ve been seeing of late. That said, I personally wouldn’t be surprised if we did see bigger Labour leads in the coming days, it is far from unknown for local election victories to give parties a boost (from having the aura of success about them and “looking like a winner”). Equally, it’s far from guaranteed to happen. As ever, time will tell.


401 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 44, LDEM 8, UKIP 8”

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  1. ““Would you be more inclined to vote for the party which gives you a better financial situation?””

    Who would say no to that? It’s not even “Would you vote” its would you BE MORE INCLINED. If someone offers you something really good, your obviously going to be more inclined, even if overall on balance you wouldnt vote for them.

    If a party offered me £1,000 to vote for them but they were say, a certain racist party. I’d be more inclined, who wouldn’t want £1,000, but I’d still not vote for them.

  2. Rassmussen and Gallup use likely voter polls, which are based on the 2010 numbers which would unfairly favor the Republicans. By American Labor Day we should be able to determine Likely Voters more easily and so Gallup will be more trustworthy (Rassmussen has a notorious right wing bias) until then, I recommend Public Policy Polling or PPP, a Democratic Internal and Media pollster out of North Carolina, which has a rep of giving the most accurate numbers. Yes, a pollster which works for the Dems is more accurate than Gallup and Rassmussen…

  3. Also, as of now, Obama is at least leading in the electoral college as he’s winning the states he needs to win. The popular vote goes down to the pollsters though.

  4. Thanks to everyone for their US responses, and for any more responses that are made. I’m a big fan of 538, and I agree that Rasmussen has looked out of line on the General polling ever since the primary finished, I’ll look more closely at the models they all use in future.

  5. “Indiana and North Carolina will be easy gains for the Republicans, as they were the shocks of the evening last time when they went Blue”

    That’s not quite true, to my recollection, Max. By election day, I think the predictions for Indiana were that it was practically a coin-toss (with a small bias towards McCain), while North Carolina had been firmly tilted towards Obama for weeks. There weren’t any real shocks.

  6. Americanbystander:

    I’d love to believe that PPP was right, and they do have a good history, but my gut says some of their polling numbers for Obama are too good to be true. Having said which, the whole reason I visit this site is because I believe that gut feelings pale to actual evidence.

  7. @Michael

    “That’s not quite true, to my recollection, Max. By election day, I think the predictions for Indiana were that it was practically a coin-toss (with a small bias towards McCain), while North Carolina had been firmly tilted towards Obama for weeks. There weren’t any real shocks.”

    Actually, North Carolina hadn’t gone Democrat since 1976, and Indiana hadn’t gone Democrat since 1964. Even then in 2008, they only went to Obama by the slimmest of margins, North Carolina which you say was firlmy tilted in favour of Obama, he only managed to win by 0.3%.

    Other states that will be interesting to watch are New Hampshire, which is a swing state and where Romney lives at the moment, and voted heavily for him in the primary, and Nevada which again is a swing state and has a heavy Mormon population. But together, they only amount to 10 extra votes.

    The real battle will be fought in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, they will decide the outcome of this race.

    If Democrats win in Florida its over automatically as when added to their safe states it goes up to 271 votes.

  8. Max:

    There´s a difference between an election thread and every single thread you decide that your opinion is paramount in.

    Please don´t reply to this as I am as sick of your partisan pinpong as everyone else is.

  9. @ John Murphy

    “The senate primary election in Indiana may indeed prove to be one of the most important moments in this election cycle….the Republican Party that tolerates Mitt Romney but hardly votes for him has at last had its chance to speak…. shades of Tea Party candidates last time who essentially prevented the Republicans taking control of the Senate.”

    Lugar would have easily won reelection to the Senate. Mourdock, who’s failed a couple of times to get elected to Congress (this is a man who claims Social Security and Medicare are unconstitutional). Makes me sad though to lose Lugar because he was good at his job and wasn’t a complete lunatic.

  10. Good Afternoon all.

    PEEWEE.
    Very interesting post about the Sept 2007 Poll.
    Apparently Gordon Brown ‘regrets’ not calling the GE then!

    I saw a Hague interview some time ago when he said GB should have called the GE in July.

    Cameron was out of the country, Africa, I think and going ‘nuts’ apparently saying he could be a very short lived Tory leader.

    This is an example of what AJP Taylor used to tell us; that Historical events are often shaped by accidents and mistakes, rather than ‘long term trends’

  11. John Watson

    There is no rational reason why the public shouldn’t be able to vote by phone, by mobile app, by web, by SMS, by Twitter or any of the other means by which the rest of the world communicates. Security? Billions of pounds are transmitted digitally every second and the boffins somewhere should be able to come up with a secure system, or at least one that’s as secure as the gerrymandering-prone postal ballot system. The current antiquated system not only makes voting a practical impossibility for normal working people, it’s also horrifically expensive.

    But we were promised massively increased turnout when the relaxing of the rules on postal ballots was introduced. That didn’t happen and while the system isn’t exactly prone to gm-ing (assuming Anthony still has an auto-block on the word), it is certainly prone to fraud. Which may increase the turnout, but that is hardly the idea.

    The trouble with electronic systems of voting is the trade-offs. The more secure you make them, the less easy they are to use. No one minds the effort if you are moving large amount of money around, but it might put them off voting.

    Just as important there’s also a trade-off between security and secrecy. The security against fraud is best done by increasing the amount of information included, but that in itself will reduce the secrecy of the ballot. And having people able to find out how you voted may in itself reduce turnout, apart from all the other implications.

    Furthermore electronic means of voting tend to have poorer audit trails than the current paper-based ones. It becomes much more difficult to detect and prove fraud, faults, or just incompetence – especially within the electoral process or within the machinery itself. This is already a problem where such means of voting are used, for example in the US.

    Imagine the additional problems you would have implementing mobile phone and web-based technologies (and several different ones on each). You’re suddenly having to guard, not just against possible interference locally, but against every foreign government; every concerned political, social and religious group; every commercial interest; every hacker out to prove themself; every possible combination of the above. In the world. And they may want to alter the results imperceptibly or just disrupt or discredit or corrupt the process. And every little District Council in the country will have to be able to provide watertight security against all that.

    As far as cost goes, the last time I looked pencils and paper were quite cheap. Constantly evolving software and hardware will be expensive to update and evaluate. If you look at the electronic counting used in the Mayoral elections it was probably slower and more expensive than doing it manually.

    You rightly point to those groups with lower participation in the existing process. But these are often also those less likely to use new technology and/or wary about giving contact details to authority. Do you really think everyone will give their mobile phone number to the local council?

    Finally if you think “voting [is] a practical impossibility for normal working people” when the hours are 7am to 10pm, can I suggest you change your job? Or that your employees do? ;)

    None of this is to suggest that there couldn’t be changes in the way elections are run – why don’t we vote on Sundays like most of Europe for example? Or look at where polling stations are situated? But politicians have spent too long trying to find a magic wand that will somehow increase numbers voting (see postal ballots as above). While the real solution is to get people to believe that using their vote will actually matter and change things for themselves and their families and their country

  12. I have lurked here for a few years and am finally provoked into posting by max. His style is that of a facebook fool, and personally as i am gay i find him often offensive.

  13. “North Carolina hadn’t gone Democrat since 1976, and Indiana hadn’t gone Democrat since 1964. Even then in 2008, they only went to Obama by the slimmest of margins, North Carolina which you say was firlmy tilted in favour of Obama, he only managed to win by 0.3%.”

    I’ll grant that they were both big shocks on election night to anyone who was basing their expectations purely on outcomes in previous elections. To anyone following the campaigns and the polls, neither was a shock. Indiana was perhaps mildly surprising (I remember that the situation with Missouri was an exact mirror image, even in terms of electoral college numbers). With North Carolina, it would have been much more surprising if it had gone for McCain.

    Unless my memory is worse than I think, the FiveThirtyEight prediction had Obama’s chances of winning North Carolina at at least 70% for weeks in advance, probably higher by election day.

  14. [email protected] Carefully bowdlerised a AW-banned word in my reply but forgot to take it out of the original quote. And apologies on the long comment Anthony (about something you probably know infinitely more about than me), but once I get started …

  15. @ Scotswaehae

    “Thanks on the stats, I knew the result, but not the breakdown. We always knew it wasn´t going to be stopped, I was hoping for just a narrow pass. A horrible outcome.

    I´m still hopeful that we´ll achieve marriage equality, and the one thing the coalition would have done right for me is to actually introduce it. They dont have much of a choice really, they introduce it now, or Labour does when they get in.”

    You’re welcome. It’s a horrible outcome but not exactly unexpected. Marriage equality will come to Scotland before it comes to England.

  16. John Watson

    I don’t recall seeing a post from you previously, so welcome – it’s always good to have new posters. Of course some posters become prolific with their comments.

    “…gerrymandering-prone postal ballot system.”

    Although it may be prone to abuse, I would disagree that it is ‘gerrymandering-prone’.

    IMO, finding ways to make it easier to vote (legally, and just once) must be investigated and pursued here in the UK if only to make elections somewhat more ‘valid’.

  17. @ American Bystander

    “Rassmussen and Gallup use likely voter polls, which are based on the 2010 numbers which would unfairly favor the Republicans. By American Labor Day we should be able to determine Likely Voters more easily and so Gallup will be more trustworthy (Rassmussen has a notorious right wing bias) until then, I recommend Public Policy Polling or PPP, a Democratic Internal and Media pollster out of North Carolina, which has a rep of giving the most accurate numbers. Yes, a pollster which works for the Dems is more accurate than Gallup and Rassmussen…”

    PPP has been more accurate though as they point out, they’ve skewed more Republican in 2010. Rassmussen has become a total joke (I honestly think they make up the numbers as they go) and Gallup isn’t all that good. There’s been a definite trend to Romney in recent weeks but I don’t think he’s actually ahead right now.

    The make up of the electorate is what will determine November’s outcome. Romney is not going to be able to walk back his numbers among Latinos (which have gone in the toilet). He’s not going to make any inroads among blacks. And it’s probably going to get worse for him among Millenials (especially with this latest student loan fiasco rate and the anti-birth control crusade). The question though is how many turn out. And that’s still a big question.

    That’s why Republicans are moving to enact laws that suppress voter turnout wherever they can. I actually don’t think that will work in the long run (though it will help the Republicans as it will force Obama and the DNC to spend money that they could otherwise use to counter the slew of Super PAC ads against them).

  18. @Mark Wattson”I have lurked here for a few years and am finally provoked into posting by max. ”

    No you haven’t, I’ve seen you post here before unless someone has the same name, i guess its a common name. And anyways, if you are new, then I’m glad too increase involment and participation. Stick around.

    @Michael “Unless my memory is worse than I think, the FiveThirtyEight prediction had Obama’s chances of winning North Carolina at at least 70% for weeks in advance, probably higher by election day.”

    Unless polls majorly overstated his support then? it’s hard to find statewide polls, most just do it nationally which as we learnt in 2000 means nothing.

    I guess what you take as a surprise may be different to mine, there was talk of McCain losing Arizona (his home state) and Montana. and indeed Montana came very close, had Montana been won by Obama, I would count that as a shock, even though, maybe perhaps you wouldn’t as some had said it was possible.

  19. Max

    Just got back from the shop to buy a big bottle of Magners Cider to celebrate the result in North Carolina

    But why? You say you are in favour of civil partnerships, though not same sex marriage. Neither are currently legal in NC, but this measure would prevent both, so it’s actually a move away from what you want. And that’s without the possible effects on for example unmarried couples of any combination of genders and their children.

    And more seriously why Magners? Have you no taste?

  20. @ Max

    “Just got back from the shop to buy a big bottle of Magners Cider to celebrate the result in North Carolina. Gonna have it with me chicken hotpot.”

    That’s just really sad.

    @ Mike MS

    “No, that’s your definition of marriage, not mine nor many other people.

    I commented in that fashion because I am fed up coming here and reading about your personal prejudices rather than politics and polling.”

    Thanks. :)

    @ Scotswaehae

    “I intend to do the same once we pass Equal marriage legislation in the UK. Booze, my boyfriend, and maybe marriage on the horizon.”

    If I ever get married (which is very unlikely), I’m going to push to honeymoon in the UK.

  21. @Roger Mexico “But why? You say you are in favour of civil partnerships, though not same sex marriage. Neither are currently legal in NC, but this measure would prevent both, so it’s actually a move away from what you want. ”

    I’m going to tread carefully here, because I don’t want to start moderating again. But basically, I don’t support either civil unions or gay marriage, but I can tolerate civil unions, I respect blair for making a compromise. That doesn’t mean I was 100% in favour of the outcome.

    “And more seriously why Magners? Have you no taste?”

    I have never liked beer, I’m from Kent, land of apples, I’m a cider drinka and Magners with ice is the most tasty cider on this earth. Don’t let them palm you off with strongbow, I find it does literally taste like another yellow fluid, but one which exits the body rather than enters.

    270 to win dot com allow you to a prediction of how each state will go in 2012 you can see mine below.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=kDb

    It turned out as a tie. I’m surprised, I actually think Obama will win. I think it comes down to Ohio, I was unsure how to cast it, polls say its close there as well, its next to Michigan so may favour Romney, but its quite an industrial area so might favour Obama especially because of his stimulus program.

  22. Good afternoon all,

    Just woke up after working all night to catch up on important things i let slip….spending too much time here :)

    How do you guys feel the relaunch went ?, you think it will pull the coalition back a couple of points or do you think the public simply want to see results now ?

    I think we are in the ‘See results’ camp myself.

    I must admit im a bit suprised at the lead in regards to the fact that Labour have not released any polocies yet but it seems the public are not bothered too much by it.

  23. Max,

    I was wrong with the 70% claim: the Wayback machine reveals Nate Silver’s final projection for North Carolina in 2008 as being 63% likely to go for Obama.

  24. @ Quincel

    “I’d love to believe that PPP was right, and they do have a good history, but my gut says some of their polling numbers for Obama are too good to be true. Having said which, the whole reason I visit this site is because I believe that gut feelings pale to actual evidence.”

    PPP actually had a more Republican bias than the many other pollsters in 2010. Just slightly though. It wasn’t like Gallup and Rasmussen, which were off. (Of course, when you gain 63 Congressional seats, no one notices if the polls confidently predicted you’d gain 75-95).

    @ Michael Elliott

    “I’ll grant that they were both big shocks on election night to anyone who was basing their expectations purely on outcomes in previous elections. To anyone following the campaigns and the polls, neither was a shock. Indiana was perhaps mildly surprising (I remember that the situation with Missouri was an exact mirror image, even in terms of electoral college numbers). With North Carolina, it would have been much more surprising if it had gone for McCain.”

    Indiana still shocks me. North Carolina doesn’t entirely but it was still surprising on election night. I thought we were one cycle away there still.

    “Unless my memory is worse than I think, the FiveThirtyEight prediction had Obama’s chances of winning North Carolina at at least 70% for weeks in advance, probably higher by election day.”

    Hmmmm. Maybe you’re confusing it with Virginia. Virginia was interesting because McCain led there for most of election night and the result seemed really close. The news networks took forever to call it and split when they made their projection (FOX News and CNN made the call before 11 pm eastern, MSNBC did not make the call until afterwards). But Virginia wasn’t actually that close. Obama won there by over 7%.

  25. Isn’t it about time ‘Latest Voting Intentions’ figure list got updated? I believe there have been some polls since April 25th and today

    It would be nice to get a feel for the trend.

  26. @ Billy Bob

    “Perhaps SoCal will enlighten us later.”

    I think the Daily Kos line you quoted is right.

    @ Max

    “Indiana and North Carolina will be easy gains for the Republicans, as they were the shocks of the evening last time when they went Blue.”

    Indiana, yes. North Carolina, no. Obama’s Bradley Coalition supporters are holding steady behind him and appear to continue to back him solidly. North Carolina is one of the few states where Obama’s standing has actually improved during his presidency polling wise.

    @ Quincel

    “Is anyone else confused by US election polling? Reuters have released a poll today putting Obama leading Romney by 7 points, while Rasmussen’s poll today has Romney up by 5. Gallup has Romney up by 3 while another pollster has him down by 3 and a final one has them at a virtual tie (Romney up by 1). Even the vote shares vary in those polls from 43 for Romney to 49, and 44 for Obama to 49. How can you have such variation in polling, surely at least one of them must be outside the MOE, but that’s meant to happen 5% of the time not 20%, and this sort of polling is coming out every week.”

    I think that daily tracking polls tend to fluctuate quite a bit and tend to have a lot of sample error. There’s also an issue of weighting polls properly to account for turnout.

  27. Also see the Max v Everyone and Everyone v Max merry go round still is in full swing :)

  28. “Unless polls majorly overstated his support then? it’s hard to find statewide polls, most just do it nationally which as we learnt in 2000 means nothing.”

    You’ll find that there are lots of statewide polls near election time, but perhaps they don’t get reported in great detail in the UK. I remember frequently being infuriated by TV reporters who would cite the results of individual polls to give their reports a certain narrative or urgency, rather than making use of the full range available.

    “I guess what you take as a surprise may be different to mine, there was talk of McCain losing Arizona (his home state) and Montana. and indeed Montana came very close, had Montana been won by Obama, I would count that as a shock, even though, maybe perhaps you wouldn’t as some had said it was possible.”

    No, they would both have been shocks. To cite Nate Silver again, his final predictions for Arizona and Montana were that they were 94% and 81% likely to vote for McCain, respectively.

  29. Martin – not today. I can’t update it from work because of the firewall, and am out all of tonight.

  30. SoCal,

    “Maybe you’re confusing it with Virginia. Virginia was interesting because McCain led there for most of election night and the result seemed really close. The news networks took forever to call it and split when they made their projection (FOX News and CNN made the call before 11 pm eastern, MSNBC did not make the call until afterwards). But Virginia wasn’t actually that close. Obama won there by over 7%”

    Not confusing with Virginia, but I did get the number too high. It was at 63% Obama on FiveThirtyEight, having passed 50% shortly after the financial crises and steadily worked towards 60% over the subsequent weeks. Virginia got up to 97% Obama!

    Of course, I don’t mean to imply that the FiveThirtyEight predictions are the sole guage of what should have been shocking at the time – just that they show what sort of things the polls were saying.

  31. “I was wrong with the 70% claim: the Wayback machine reveals Nate Silver’s final projection for North Carolina in 2008 as being 63% likely to go for Obama.”

    Meh your still pretty close. Either polls were saying he’d do a lot better in North Carolina and he actually under performed there or they knew something we didn’t.

    I can’t see Romney winning Virginia, demographically it has been altered too much, with spill over from Maryland and DC. I heard someone, you or Socali say Romney’s pollings were down amongst hispanics, this will obviously harm him in the key Florida, which he absoultely must win.

    My prediction for 2012 is Obama winning re-election, but being neutralised by the Republicans taking the Senate making his job so much harder as he will only really be left to Executive Orders, and you can’t govern on Executive orders alone for 4 years, at some point, some legislation will need to be passed which will need Reps support in both houses.

    In fact, the dodgy thing with American politics, is that Obama hasn’t been able to pass legislation at all since December 2010 because he needs to do significant horse trading with Reps in the house and they demand stuff he is unwilling to give.

  32. @Michael “To cite Nate Silver again, his final predictions for Arizona and Montana were that they were 94% and 81% likely to vote for McCain, respectively.”

    I may have to read more into this Nate Silver, as he seems to be highly certain about what were in the end knife-edge results. Did he predict every state correctly? Does he have a similar site for today’s Euro Million lottery numbers?

  33. @ Roger Mexico

    “But why? You say you are in favour of civil partnerships, though not same sex marriage. Neither are currently legal in NC, but this measure would prevent both, so it’s actually a move away from what you want. And that’s without the possible effects on for example unmarried couples of any combination of genders and their children.”

    What these amendments/initiatives are shown to do is cause great harm amongst the LGBT community. Studies have shown that they lead to increased rates of HIV/AIDS infections as well as increases in the number of hate crimes. There are other negative effects shown on physical and psychological health. These initiatives often don’t do much to change laws (in fact, the only time it actually did was in California and ironically it seemed to spark a massive backlash to the fundamentalists) but they are extremely harmful.

    It’s why I’m very glad that the effort to have a vote in the District of Columbia on same-sex marriage was blocked even though I think the campaign might have gone the other way.

    “And more seriously why Magners? Have you no taste?”

    LOL. :)

  34. ANTHONY

    Thanks.

    The “get out” appears to be lack of consensus-which to me equates to a complete waste of parliamentary time & effort.

  35. SoCal,

    “Virginia was interesting because McCain led there for most of election night and the result seemed really close. The news networks took forever to call it…”

    That’s strange. I should remember that – but, then, I did consume an awful lot of beer that night.

  36. “It’s why I’m very glad that the effort to have a vote in the District of Columbia on same-sex marriage was blocked even though I think the campaign might have gone the other way.”

    Yes but District of Columbia is the most Democrat district in the country. Because it has a large amount of one certain Demographic that vote Democrat by about 90% This demographic however, are able to cross the aisle and vote with Republicans on the issue of Gay marriage, as this demographic, as well as another demographic mainly in Florida, Texas etc is highly religious.

  37. BLUEBOB

    @”How do you guys feel the relaunch went ?, ”

    Utterly pointless & misconceived.

    Wandering about infront of a captive audience of bored tractor makers.

    What was required was a Q&A infront of the Press.

    …..the Press who have to be pulled back onside…….the Press who actually influence their readers.

  38. Mark Watson – welcome your post.
    One good thing about this kind of site is that it is race, disability, age, sometimes sex and sexual orientation neutral.
    This is good as it means that other than the party background we readers are not bringing any preconceived prejudice to their impression of a contribution, although of course we develop them to ceratin contributers based on other posts.
    That you and Scotswaehae have felt compelled to reveal your sexuality (not that it is anything to be bothered about but it is a private matter) is a mark of how offensive Max is, sadly without realsing it.
    Accordingly, I feel I wish to join other contributers and support your view and emphasise that Max is untypical of contributers on here.
    From now on I will not engage him, I have been tolerant due to his youth and desire to get more right wing people and young people on here but enough is enough.

  39. As a firm Labour supporter (you’d never guess from my posts, lol) I support the Government’s plans for reform of the House of Lords. It is very sensible to have a third of Peers (or Senators whatever they will be called) elected every five years with them serving non-renewable 15 year terms. They would never be able to say they have more legitimacy than the Commons as 2/3 would have been elected long before the current HoCs.

    Labour could play it very smart here by supporting the Government’s proposals wholeheartedly. They would surely then go through as even if all Tory backbenchers voted against, the combined votes of Labour, Lib Dem and Tory MPs on the payroll would see it sail through. This would cement deep divisions between the PM and his party. The only way out would be to make it a free vote and Tory Ministers voted against, which would make Cameron look very weak!

  40. @Roly

    “Max has one big problem on this board, he is not a left winger. I flatter myself that he has to some extent taken over from myself,”

    Well stick around, I could use some help now and again, and it’s hard at time being the only tory to post, if someone else could take a shift I’d be much obliged. ;)

  41. “I may have to read more into this Nate Silver, as he seems to be highly certain about what were in the end knife-edge results. Did he predict every state correctly?”

    Only Indiana and Missouri didn’t go in the direction which he had deemed more likely than the other. On the 30th of October he had predicted Missouri to be 53% likely to vote for Obama, and Indiana 44% likely to vote for Obama – both pretty close to coin-tosses, so it would be a bit harsh to say he got them wrong…

  42. @BIGD
    `Labour could play it very smart here by supporting the Government’s proposals wholeheartedly.`

    Labour might well have done that but for the fact that Lord`s reform may be somehow related to Boundary reform as some Lib Dems have indicated…It may be that Clegg will drop Lord`s reform but still give the conservatives boundary changes but the boundary changes are less likely than if Lord`s reform goes through

  43. @BIGD

    I think everyone agrees with some kind of Lord reform. I myself am quite traditional and conservative, but I think we should remove hereditary peers altogether as they really have done nothing to deserve their place other than be born.

    Also wouldn’t mind the CofE bishops being removed, although I must declare an interest, that as a Catholic obviously it might look bad to see me campaigning against the CofE.

    On the issue of elections I don’t know. In the future it could be good for me, more elections, more politicians = more chance for me to get in, but then on a moral side, I don’t think we want anymore politicians, and I like the idea of having a chamber of experience and expertise editing legislation but albeit not able to block it altogether, as opposed to having a 2nd house of commons albeit with slightly different rules.

    I fear we’d end up with the system in America where the 2nd house would become more confident and able to block legislation that the house of commons and prime minister wanted to pass.

  44. “Max against everyone”. Not quite. He appears to take an interest in politics that would be most welcome in other young people. Max has one big problem on this board, he is not a left winger. I flatter myself that he has to some extent taken over from myself, as the man to speak his mind and to hell with what PC left wingers think about it.

    [That’ll be why you keep getting banned then. I don’t want people posting here in on “to hell if I offend other people” view. I’d rather like people to respect other posters, think before they post, and not put up things that are going to rile up other posters – AW]

  45. @ Scotswaehae

    “I’m just going to respond this once, so I don’t get b*llocked, but it’s not a question of polling when you talk about celebrating, particularly when you know that you are provoking others (such as myself) who are in favour of marriage equality. Particularly when things like marriage equality doesn’t really matter to your life, but will make a huge difference to mine.”

    It’s more than that really. It’s not just provoking people on an issue that they support, this is our lives we’re fighting for (to borrow Harvey Milk’s language).

    You know, I mentioned Pete Knight last night. Knight’s son, an air force captain, is gay. Knight disowned him for it. He didn’t speak to his son for the rest of his life (Knight died in 2004). What I think was particularly grotesque about him is that he seemed to be waging the campaign for Prop 22 as a way to take a personal war against his own son and make it public.

    And I say that because the more I think about Prop 22, it makes little sense and is really an odd duck. These initiatives are usually placed on presidential ballots to help boost turnout for Republicans (by turning out fundamentalist Christian voters). In 2000, there were a number of people who thought California would go Republican for Dubya and so it’s a curious thing that the measure was placed on the March Primary and not in the November General. The other thing is, Prop 22 was duplicative. Same-sex marriage had already been explicitly banned by state statute since 1978. All it did was recodify that. It wasn’t a constitutional amendment and so it offered no protections to a court challenge.

    I remember one of the leaders in the 1998 Hawaii Referendum had a daughter who was gay. She was quoted as saying “I want my daughter to have every right” before launching into an anti-gay diatribe. I thought it was pretty sick and f**ked up. It’s great when parents can use the ballot box (and taxpayer funds) to wage a war against their kids in a fruitless attempt to control and punish them.

  46. @Michael “On the 30th of October he had predicted Missouri to be 53% likely to vote for Obama,”

    I was always under the impression that Missouri was solid Red, I never expected anything other than a McCain win in 08 in Missouri, but you’re right, when looking a little deeper actually Missouri is quite a swing state, it went for Clinton twice, Bush twice, and seems quite swingable. Can’t see Obama winning it in 2012 either though.

    I think, and maybe you can correct me on this, is it generally agreed that Republicans will at least gain some college votes and not the other way around and are unlikely to remain the same? For instance Indiana is surely a certain Red now,

    in fact the BBC confuses me it lists Indiana as Solid republican, although dems won it last time, but lists Michigan and Minnesota as Swing states even though they never voted for bush, have been Blue since the 70’s and 80’s and voted for Obama by a margin of 10 %and 16 % respectively.

  47. @Socali

    “It’s great when parents can use the ballot box (and taxpayer funds) to wage a war against their kids in a fruitless attempt to control and punish them.”

    Not true. I have stated my views on here clearly, I don’t have thess views as a way to wage war on my kids, after all I haven’t got any yet.

    On the case of Pete Knight, from what you said there I think I would do the same.

    It’s the old saying about correlation doesn’t imply causation. I’d do the same as Pete Knight, but it’s nothing to do with kids, as I hold these views even before I have kids.

    P.S if this Pete Knight is found to have done anything to his son, other than disowning which I agree with, please don’t assume I agree to whatever else there was, please ask me first before you make a character assumption.

  48. For those interested in watching the trend of polling in the state polls up to US election night there is nowhere better than here:
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

    Mark Blumenthal does an excellent job keeping it uptodate and the state trend lines can be adjusted to make them more or less sensitive to the latest polls or to see a longer-term gradual progression.

    For 2008 their trend line predicted every state incredibly accurately apart from Indiana, which they had narrowly for McCain (by .1 of a point, so they were only .2 out).

    North Carolina had been almost an exact tie for weeks so the actual flip to Obama wasn’t actually that much of a surprise. I actually thought he was going to get Missouri before Indy – no chance of that now.

    And actually demographic changes have now made Virginia even more safe for Obama and possible North Carolina too, although a swing back to GOP will probably neuter N.C back to GOP.

  49. @JIM JAM
    I like girls very much indeed. I always did from about 14 years of age and still do at 66 next June. I don’t know why I mention it, it must have been something Max said.

  50. Every year they say New Hampshire will be close, but it never is – it even went Dem with Kerry.

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