I’m not online tonight so I’m writing this post in advance, but it looks like yesterday’s YouGov poll wasn’t so much of an outlier. Topline figures for the YouGov/Sun poll tonight are CON 32%, LAB 41%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8%. Labour’s lead is nine points, so slightly lower than yesterday’s, but UKIP remain one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats.


145 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 41, UKIP 9, LDEM 8”

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  1. I have no idea what a remnimbi bond is. But I’m sure it’s just what we need to save UK manufacturing.

  2. It’s Sovereign Debt of China.

    Bringing the trade in Chinese Bonds to London will create direct jobs in a market, which will see the Chinese currency gaining global reserve status.and has the potential to spin off Chinese & Asian inward investment in UK.

    Financial Services is hugely important to UK.

    It doesn’t have to be built on exotic instruments of dubious value.

  3. Nick P, credit where it is due, it is on the face of it good for the UK.

  4. JIM JAM

    Pragmatic & objective as ever :-)

  5. The SNP can’t have it both ways on unemployment figures. The claim is they have a greater drop in unemployment than rUK and seek to credit this to their policies. Whose fault is it when unemployment increases? Not theirs apparently.

    If you claim credit for the good you must accept blame for the bad. If you claim that Scotland can’t control unemployment because it’s a part of the UK then you must credit the UK government with the drop in unemployment.

    The facts are clear – the Tories have cut capital spending and are having problems with unemployment; the SNP have cut capital spending even further and are struggling with unemployment also.

    To claim the unemployment rate in Scotland being better than the UK average as a success is like DC claiming the drop in unemployment vindicates his policies, even though there are still 1m+ unemployed youths.

    Saying the unemployment rate in Scotland is a success as it is lower than rUK is like saying it’s better to have constipation rather than diarrhoea – they’re both sh*tty problems no one wants to have!

  6. @Alan

    “I don’t understand why people consider Euroscepticism as the sole ground of the right. It’s perfectly possible to be a centrist (or even left wing, who believes the free market stops the state from having enough control over the marketplace) liberal and still think that Europe has far too much impact on our own sovereignty.”

    That’s a point. Left wing eurosceptic parties, like in France, Denmark and Netherlands, are doing well, and sometimes even taking votes from the far right, who were the only one to defend this point of view before. But in the case of UKIP themselves, they are a eurosceptic far right party. But I wonder if a left-wing eurosceptic party appear, if they could steal votes from them.

    I think that UKIP are a reality now and even they don’t get as much as 9% their number of votes, regardless of MP’s elected, will be too big to be ignored. Do you think that, in a worst case scenario, a Con-UKIP coalition could happen?

  7. “which will see the Chinese currency gaining global reserve status.”

    Once the Chinese currency gets reserve status or allows a basket of currencies to replace the dollar Hong Kong will become the centre of global finance and the US economy will be in real trouble as it is only the dollars reserve currency status that is keeping it afloat.

    By all means issue yuan bonds as it will good for the city but it isn’t a long term solution to our problems and if the Chinese economy overheats and it has boom and bust we could suffer with it, but then that is playing the markets.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

  8. Jayblanc

    “The majority of the country voted centre left,”

    An alternative reading is that the overwhelming majority of the country voted centre-right. The problem was that 3 million or so of them didn’t seem to realise that that was what they were doing and rapidly realised afterwards in one of the biggest stable shifts of VI that we’ve seen in generations.

    I actually don’t agree that the CA should have been a centrist one. It clearly should have been (and arguably, was) a centre-right agreement. The problem for Cameron at the moment is that his Right doesn’t seem to realise that they didn’t win the Election and is heaping opprobrium on his head for now not leading a more avowedly right-wing administration.

    Cannon to the left of him. Cannon to the right of him. Into the mid-term of death…

  9. On the subject of woes on both sides of the Coalition, one can’t help wondering if the great Gods Hubris and Nemesis are quietly chuckling into their pint pots these days.

    Had Clegg been just a little bit less smoothly polished at the “Stare down the camera and remember the questioner’s name” act during the Leaders’ Debates, had the Clegg-mania shock not thrown the election campaign off kilter, then what a different world we’d now be inhabiting.

    A significantly more right-wing Government with even less restraint pulling them centre-wards. The experience of the first 2 years of the 79-83 administration suggests that they’d be polling around 25-26% by now.

    A Labour Party without a coherent policy platform and still blamed for the mess, floundering in the low 20s in the polls.

    An invigorated LD party shouting, “See! We TOLD you what would happen if you gave them unfettered power,” tacking right and left as the opportunities arose, sweeping up disillusioned centrists from both sides and polling in the low 40s. The dream of the Gang of Four finally coming to maturity.

    Counterfactual history eh? I bet Clegg cries himself to sleep most nights considering what might have been.

  10. @ Henry

    I think the huge problem the LDs faced in 2010 was educating people about what to expect when they voted for them in terms of what could actually be achieved through Coalition rather than majority government.

    Most of the voter frustration is driven by the LDs being massively short-changed by FPTP. How could LD voters not feel hard done by when those who voted Tory or Labour get so much more representation for their share of vote?

    If they really are saying what Red Rag says they are, that is a depressing indictment of our inability to communicate what we actually are doing in government. In fact, you have to wonder why the average man or woman on the street should be aware of how much is being done. If their only knowledge of politics derives from the tabloids, the Mail, Telegraph, Times or Mirror says, then of course they will have a hostile view because of the torrent of acid ink that has been poured on the party and its leadership incessantly ever since the first leaders’ debate.

  11. @LEFTYLAMPTON
    “I bet Clegg cries himself to sleep most nights considering what might have been.”

    Ah, that explains the puffy eyes.

  12. @ROBERT C
    `I think the huge problem the LDs faced in 2010 was educating people about what to expect when they voted for them in terms of what could actually be achieved through Coalition rather than majority government.

    But quite a proportion of Lib Dem votes for anti-Tory votes…So the least they could have done for those voters is to stay out of government and support a Tory government for `national interest`…The enthusiasm with which they went into government indicated some contempt for these voters.

  13. @ Leftylampton

    Being out of power but with high polling ratings (probably high twenties at best, not 40s) would have been a path we have trod many times before. What use would that be?

    Sitting on the sidelines for ever and a day, waiting for the Tories to call an election whenever they feel like it and probably winning an outright majority as well would be equally bad, if not worse.

    I’m sorry, but your counterfactual is really not very appealing.

  14. @Smukesh

    And a similar proportion were also probably anti-Labour voters, who were sick to the back teeth of the Brown administration and wanted something different. What about their views?

    The FPTP system of “anti” voting is just simply the worst way to run a political system.

    Supporting a Tory minority government would have got us the same blame with none of our policies implemented, followed swiftly by an election where the Tories won an outright majority.

    Before the general election, everyone said it was the election no-one wanted to win because of the state of the public finances. Well how right they were.

  15. Robert C

    Do you really think that your party is so poor that it could not have built greatly on a 21-22% polling figure in 2010 in the circumstances that would have existed if the Tories had squeaked a majority? I suggest that the LDs would have been rolling in polling clover today. They would have consolidated the gains they had made from Labour, and would have been a very attractive alternative for centrist Tories, dismayed by Cameron being pulled strongly rightwards by his very rightwing PCP.

    But no matter. The problem for the LDs is that, whatever the possible problems of that scenario, the reality is not appealing either. They have the misfortune to have secured a Coalition in the least promising economic times, and with (partisan comment alert, although I think an unbiased reading of events these last two years will support it) a politically maladroit leadership that has been hung out to dry on a regular basis. As a result, the party is facing the very real prospect of a generation in a 1950s-60s style wilderness as the centre-left support that it has cultivated for 30 years abandons it.

    The LDs may have a few Coalition successes to cling to for the future, but I suspect that they will not get close to power (or at least not with any real clout) for the rest of my lifetime (which I fully intend to be a good few years yet).

  16. @”By all means issue yuan bonds as it will good for the city but it isn’t a long term solution to our problems.”

    Who said it is?

    It’s a new market-& London isnow in it-that’s helpful.

  17. @Robert C

    Unfortunately an alternative take is that having minority parties that then have disproportionate influence on government through coalition agreements is just simply the worst way to run a political system.

    Look at Israel for example…

    You can never reverse engineer people’s votes to discover why they voted the way they did.

  18. @ROBERT C
    `The FPTP system of “anti” voting is just simply the worst way to run a political system`

    You accept that only a minority of voters wanted a Lib Dem in government as most of the votes were protest votes…So why the rush to be in government? Out of government,without massive self-goals like tuition fees increase,you could have had more credibility for the AV referendum by which time Nick Clegg was toxic

    And the fact that you are currently down almost 14 points off the 2010 intake indicate that there were far more anti-Tory voters than anti-Labour voters voting for you

    I do accept though that Lib Dems,especially Cable and Huhne have been a moderating influence on this government

  19. @ Swanarcadian

    I trust it was you that put all the videos up on you tube of the 2010 election night. A big thankyou for that, call me sad but i do enjoy watching the results come in :)

    As for the pretty dire polls for the conservatives, just a blip.

    Once they economy picks up pace and a little feel good factor that comes with that kicks in i think we shall start to see the polls neck and neck again at worst for the conservatives.

    If they dont sort it by then they deserve to lose the next election which by the way is in May 2015 not 2012.

  20. Robert C

    But C&S would have required you to vote for the finance bill and for no confidence motions ONLY.

    You could have voted against the specific health and tuition fees legislation for example- especially as it was not a part if your manifesto (whereas-albeit it obliquely-deficit reduction was).

    Furthermore Dave and George would not have called a GE any time soon as it would have been unlikely to have delivered them a workable majority.

    Essentially your lleadership made a disastrous decision IMHO: you’ll likely pay for it for a generation.

    Big lesson of being on this site for over 3 years now? Over time the polls don’t lie (and EdM blind followers need to take note of that fact as well)…

  21. Allan Christie,

    The voters don’t shout it because most people in Scotland weren’t politically aware (or alive?) when the Tories were the Unionists.

    Of course, Labour kept with the slogan long after it had lost any connection with reality.

  22. GOOD EVENING after a hard day, some extra tutoring and then a car parking fine from a very fat male revenue collector wearing ear studs.

    Interesting article in the ‘I” on ED M.

  23. @CHRISLANE1945

    “a car parking fine from a very fat male revenue collector wearing ear studs.”

    Forgive me, but all I could think of was:

    http://www.producenews-online.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Cow-with-ear-tag-474×317.gif

  24. The lib dems always looked to be on shaky ground – straddling left and right, hoovering up votes from both labour and the tories meant that, eventually, they would end up doing something to lose favour with a large section of their support. As it turns out, by the time of the 2010 election, most of their support came from the left – whom they’d courted for years. Now they’re in big trouble.

  25. STATGEEK.
    Thank you!

    And on the political front, I have just watched PMQ’s and wondered how damaging the sight of Old Nick nodding at his leader’s jokes and statements is becoming for the LD’s

  26. Re leftwing Euroscepticism

    Candidates for TUSC (Trade Union and Socialsit Coalition) stood under the ‘No2EU’ banner at the last Euro elections.

    The Green party is also moderately Eurosceptic (unlike many of the other Green parties in Europe, who tend to be more pro-European).

  27. Luke

    I wouldn’t describe the Scottish Green Party as “eurosceptic”, though they do want Scotland (the UK, if we are still in it) and the EU to change policy direction.

    “The Greens are the first political movement born in the age of European political and economic union, and we’ve always seen EU membership as a positive opportunity to make progress on a host of social and environmental objectives. Europe has improved working conditions for millions of people, helped to control the use of toxic chemicals in industry, and put pressure on all member states to live up to basic standards of human rights and equality.

    But the EU is also guilty of far too much economic centralisation, and remains dominated by an unsustainable and market-obsessed economic model. Greens want to see strong self-reliant local and regional economies in Europe, instead of pushing for ever greater centralisation. In a more democratic and accountable Europe, power should be placed in the hands of citizens through a stronger Parliament, and greater use of referendums.”

    Do the English/Welsh Greens take a different line?

  28. CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 10%, OTHERS 16%; APP -36

    UKIP 8%

    LibDem bounce?

  29. C: 32% Lab: 41% LD: 10% UKIP: 8% App: -36%

  30. If 10% constitutes a “bounce” then the good Lord help the LDs. It does start to look like a proper Labour lead, rather suddenly. The thing is now for the party to sustain it.

  31. I expect the Tories to narrow the gap tomorrow, due to Abu Qatada (don’t we ever get his real name? I nearly fell off my chair when I found out that Abu Hamza’s real name was Mustafa Kamal – I.e. named after Ataturk) being back in the clink, and better job data.

  32. It wasn’t the wholesale ditching of policies that did for the LDs. It was that they weren’t really cherished values in the first place. Just tactical positioning that was jettisoned when no longer required.

  33. O-N: yep, another 5% F bias for Lab.

  34. Raf,sorry I do not understand.Why should the Tories get a
    boost from the AQ business.I rather understood that the
    whole business had descended into the usual mess
    and rigmarole of who said what when.

  35. “Which of these would make the best Prime Minister?

    G_B, Sco,
    31%, 26%, Cameron
    22%, 21%, Miliband
    _5%, _4%, Clegg
    42%, 49% Don’t Know (ie they’re all crap)

    I gather Miliband is due to visit Scotland. When he did that last May, Labour lost every constituency he visited.

  36. Old Nat,well I suppose that if we listen to the counsel of
    defeat and despair ,we would not to anything.

  37. @Ann (in Wales)

    The Tories should benefit as:
    (a) May has taken,the decision to deport him, having concluded what she claims are legally effective MoU with Jordan; and
    (b) AQ is not in a lock up, rather than at home.

    Yes, she has hit a snag, but it this must be positive law and,order story for heartland Tories.

  38. @ RAF,

    You’ve obviously not seen the news from today. The whole AQ thing has gone belly up for the govt as they got their dates wrong and announced the deportation prematurely.

    Unfortunately it is falling again into the pattern of “announce policy-miss key problems/failings-announce embarrassing u-turn/clarification/consultation” – as seen with forests, NHS, Gerry cans, Granny Tax, charities etc. etc. etc.

  39. Which of these would make the best Prime
    Minister?

    March 20th:
    David Cameron – 38%
    Ed Miliband – 18%
    (Cameron 20% lead)

    April 18th:
    David Cameron – 31% (-7)
    Ed Miliband – 22% (+4)
    (Cameron 9% lead)

    In less than a month, Cameron’s lead as best PM has dropped 11%.

    The Tory complacency because nobody will elect Miliband when it comes to crunch time is slowly wearing thin.

    If Miliband catches up on this rating, that’s when it’s REALLY panic time for the Conservatives.

  40. ADRIAN B

    Isn’t consistency to be admired?

  41. @RAF

    Not sure I agree with you, if you watch the news coverage its all bad. And it fits in well with the “omni-shambles”. But the Tories could turn it around and blame the European Court of Human Rights.

  42. RAF,thank you for being so patient,I am only commenting
    on what I heard on the BBC tonight.Apparently AQs house
    arrest was quite rigorous.But hell I am beginning to sound
    like an apologist for him.Frankly if this a positive story for
    the Tories,well frankly good.As long as he IS deported.

  43. @Garry Gatter, Adrian B and Ann (in Wales)

    Actually, would you believe I have not seen the TV news this evening? It looks as if I may be wrong.

    Ann – the curfew conditions were very strict. 22hr curfew, guests needed to.be pre-cleared. No internet. No calls to anyone not pre-vetted etc. The point I was making was that having him ay home was very expensivr for the police/secuity.services. Prison is cheaper.

    I would also like him to be deported. Howevet, this is a man that has been effectively detainef for 8 years without having been.charged with an offence. I find that wrong. Also of he goed to Jordan, he will be detained again – probably.for the rest of his.life, as he was convicted of terrorism offenced in absentia. He may well be a very dangerous imdivudual, but I would like this to.be proven.in a court of law, with.due process. I have no.problem with that.being a Jordanian.court.

  44. @Luke

    I haven’t met or directly heard of anyone who has changed their vote because of rendition whether they supported it or not. I certainly haven’t heard of anyone doing so because of this latest story about Jack Straw, and frankly I do not believe it without evidence.

    It was being stated as ‘a given fact’ that rendition affected votes. I said I wanted to see actual evidence that rendition affected votes.

    Your response was merely to re-state earlier points that it did or indeed does.

    Valuable though your opinion is, that isn’t actually giving me any evidence, just saying something does not make it true.

    Please give me some polling evidence it does.

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