As well as the YouGov poll (see the post below), there are also new polls today from Populus and TNS BMRB.

Populus has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 33%(-1), LAB 42%(+4), LDEM 11%(nc). For those with a Times subscription there are more details here.

Meantime TNS BMRB has topline figures, again with changes from last month, of CON 32%(-3), LAB 42% (+4), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 16%.

So, three polls tonight, with answers that are actually pretty consistent – the Conservatives at 32-33, Labour at 42-43 and slightly more variation on the Lib Dems on 8-11.


153 Responses to “New Populus and TNS polls”

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  1. I think the big news, is a minor party such as Ukip making it in to the top 3 for the 1st time in ages. I know Anthony warns us about blips in polls, but surely this must be the first time a minor party has made the top 3 in VI even if only a single rogue poll, for decades. Am I right? At one point there was 2 liberal parties or somethng that then merged, so would that possibly have been the last time a new party broke into the top 3, even if only for 1 poll.

    Since that time, has there ever been a poll, even a rogue one, showing a new party in the top 3?

  2. Amber

    I’m sure that the Skintland thing was not designed to be “anti-Scottish” any more than the Punch cartoons in the 19th century were designed to be “anti-Irish”, or the comments about the North of England are designed to be “anti-Northern”.

    They don’t “design” these things. The metropolitan elite simply has an innate sense of its own superiority, and has no sense of their own intrinsic bigotry.

    As usual, your response is sensible. Alas Barney fails to respond.

    Not all SLabs are the same!

  3. On that Yougov poll, SNP being high might not be the oddest thing. Both Con/LD polling looks reasonably right!
    I don’t think things like the Economist make much difference, if anything for some I think it strengthens their negative view of SNP (see some Labour supporters tweeting about it); but I do think it makes the opposition parties look a bit to well…’excited’ over things putting Scotland down. Which I think to what we might describe with the US term, ‘independents’ (probably should think of a better phrase as it is a poor choice of words in the Scottish situation :p) – makes them think the SNP are looking after their interests.

    Certainly there has been ZERO changes despite changes to all the parties leaderships, except maybe:
    – Lib Dems in Scotland have gone BACKWARD and become an even more hypocritical and bonkers version of Scottish Labour (see their Uni/college chatter)
    – Conservatives? Meh, they need more time I suppose. Nothing ‘bad’ has happened beyond well…being Tories.
    – Labour? Continued their decline, only now their in full-on opposition and so are generally ignored by the press who see SNP as almost a mini-opposition to the coalition in Westminster.

    Scots have already seen the ‘Ed Miliband Labour’ over the previous minority-SNP term, they hated it. In England there is no alternative. I wouldn’t be surprised at a generally anti-Labour vote in Scotland.

    Tory vote going to UKIP is interesting. Seems the ‘hard Tories’ are going to an alternative. And with ‘coalition government’ making rulings its to be expected really.

  4. Fraser

    I agree that the Economist thing will make little difference in VI.

    it won’t have registered with most people.

    It will consolidate the views (among those who are actually aware of it) of those who are primarily Scots in their thinking that, the London elite is institutionally anti-Scottish.

    Sensible unionists in Scotland like Amber will agree that such stuff is offensive, but it won’t change their view on the constitutional question.

    Then, there is Barney – desperate to be the “official” SLab voice – and unaware of the consequences of his pronouncements.

  5. @OldNat;

    I don’t know, I think you have to find a certain sense of humour in these things. Being half-Australian and living in New Zealand, there’s a fair wee amount of stuff like that going on, and I always saw it more as friendly banter, you know? They called us criminals, we call them sheep-shaggers (if you’ll excuse my French) and at the end of the day everyone goes home feeling satisfied.

    Of course Westminster calls you Skintland, but then, Skintland calls them Wastemonster. Swings and roundabouts, right?

  6. Wasn’t there a not the nine-o-clock news Tory map of the UK once?

    I think Scotland got called Gillie Jocko Land.

    Wonder if it’s on line somewhere?

  7. Latest IFop French presidential poll –
    Arthaud – 1% (L)
    Poutou – 1% (L)
    Melenchon – 14% (L)
    Hollande – 27.5% (L)
    Joly – 2.5% (L)
    Bayrou – 10% (C)
    Sarkozy – 27% (R)
    Dupont-Aignon – 1% (R)
    Le Pen – 16% (R)

    Total Left – 46%
    Total Right – 44%

    Second Round –
    Hollande – 55%
    Sarkozy – 45%

    So again, first round looking very close between Sarkozy & Hollande and Le Pen & Melenchon, but second round definitely for Hollande.

    Is it effectively close enough to call the election?

  8. Max – I think the Greens scored more than the LDs in 1988 (maybe ’89) just after the merger and their 15% in Euro Elections; it did not last.
    As a Lab member I hope that the UKIP VI materialises at a GE but I doubt it very much.
    One has to accept that some increase mostly at the expense of the cons looks likely at the moment, though, and could make the difference is 10-20 seats perhaps?
    A long way off but at the Euro Elections UKIP could be second again this time pushing Cons in to third.

  9. I think it’s safe to assume a large portion of the UKIP vote will return to the Tories as long as they’re afraid enough of a Labour victory in 2015.

    The only scenario I can think of, with Tory > UKIP sticking, is if it’s pretty certain that Labour will win 2015 and the Tories have done enough to alienate their voters.

    That’s what Major found when most of the Tory vote became Non-Voters 1992-1997 when their vote collapsed – only this time the Tory voters would have somewhere to place their anti-Gov but anti-Labour protest vote (unlike 1992-97 where they just stayed at home).

    Such a result (split right) would be fantastic for the left – so it’s best to not get our hopes up and just assume that the UKIP vote will largely ‘come home’ in 2015.

  10. A perversity is that if UKIP’s vote share increases, they’ll suffer much more from single-winner-induced disproportionality yet remain fundamentally committed to it in their manifesto. (And it’s also worth noting that AV would have only had a tangential effect: you can’t fix national disproportionality at the constituency level.)

  11. The Populus poll for the Times totals 102%.

    My suspicions were raised when I read that Labour’s rating had improved by 4% whereas those expressing support for all other parties had fallen by just 1%.

  12. TF -Peter Cairns coined this the ‘games up’ phenonmemon before the last GE. It looked at one point in 2009 that that point might be reached for Labour like it had for the Tories in ’97. In the end whilst some did stay at home many disillusioned Lab supporters did turn out suffciently worried about what a Tory Gov’t might bring, although there was still plenty of stay at homes.
    I agree with you Labour has to expect the UKIP GE vote to drop compared to current (and probably even higher) post Euro Election opinion polls levels. If UKIP 8% the spilt, will probably be worth 4% or so the the Tories over Labour as some wil stay and a little go Labour but in lab/con marginals the benefit to the Tories may well be nearer 6%.

    The Labour leadership will be aware of this and know that the need to firm up their support and try to add 2-3% if they can

  13. Tom – it happens. For example:

    34.5 plus 40.5 plus 11.5 plus 13.5 = 100

    round them to integers

    35 plus 41 plus 12 plus 14 = 102

  14. As JimJam says, the last time a party other than the big three was in third place was the Green party in 1989.

  15. @JimJam/Tinged Fringe

    I’m not sure I entirely buy this theory of the inevitability of most of the UKIP vote “coming home” to the Conservatives at a General Election. It’s conceivable, I accept, but not a certainty by any means. In many ways it will depend on how skilfully Farage and UKIP play their hand and, when interviewed on Sunday, Farage hinted at conversations his party were currently having with disillusioned Tory MPs. If he could secure some eye-catching defections, a la SDP in the 80s, and then mutate UKIP into something a little more than a single issue party, then he could hang on to, and possibly increase, his party’s electoral support.

    In the same way that I don’t assume the inevitable return of a section of the current SNP vote to Labour in the Westminster elections, I don’t see the UKIP vote automatically melting into the grateful hands of the Conservatives come 2015 either.

    If Farage is the political mould-breaker that he claims to be, then he has to go all out for the growing band of right wing Tory voters, and politicians, who are growing ever more disillusioned with the Clegg-diluted Conservatism on offer from Cameron. Farage is not my favourite politician by any means, in fact he’s one of those that I least like, but he’s not a man to be underestimated by any means and, as a former Conservative, I sense he knows exactly where the fault lines and fissures exist in his former party. He may not have arrived at a better time to exploit them either.

  16. I am delighted to see UKIP polling so well, at the expense of the Tories. If the Tories ever needed a warning that trying to copy New Labour – as they seem intent on doing – will destroy them, this is it.

  17. @ Tinged Fringe

    One other factor you left out of your “stay at home Con vote” scenario. Not only do they need to feel alienated from the Cons and that Lab is bound to win, they also need to feel “not that bothered” with the Lab alternative.

    That was Major’s problem in 1992 – disgruntled Tories really weren’t that bothered with Blair. He looked and sounded like a One Nation Tory, he had no baggage with the left (he’d spent three years dumping trad Lab policies), and not only did Blair win over many Con voters, he also made a lot of Con voters think “Actually he’ll actually be better than another five years of Major”.

    This is VERY unlikely to happen with EM – look at his numbers, and compare with Blair c1995.

  18. On the provisional boundaries calculator it shows others losing seats even if they increase to 17% like on this poll. Is this because of boundary changes or just because its hard to calculate localised political movements.

  19. “desperate to be the official SLab voice” Moi?
    Refusing to answer the inquisitor at 1.42 in the morning. Because of the Screwtape approach, internet discussion of Scottish politics has almost died. PB seems to have a near ban, the BBC has stopped blogging on its commentators sites etc. The SNP locally doesn’t see me as an official conduit but as a scary leftist leading “pre-historic” Labour. Experienced readers of this site may raise an eye-brow of surprise.
    The Economict cover isn’t exactly Oscar Wilde but the Economist covers are often much more abusive. (I don’t like them). But the article was more than fair and accurate (un-like the strange earlier one referred to by Amber). However, for me the most significant issue was the SNP response which was to threaten the Economist that they would ensure that the Eonomist would “rue the day” they printed that cover. What possible means does A Salmond have to do this?
    As the leader of a Labour group in the midst of an election, I obviously don’t have time to blog on a site with barely one local voter but I would ask posters from outside Scotland to take more detailed interest if posting on Scotland

  20. There is a an Angus Reid poll out with the Tories on 29%

  21. @ David,

    Tories on 29% – CRIPES, is there a link somewhere?

  22. L 41 C 29 LD 11

    Angus Reid

    Ukip on 8

  23. nickp

    The Spitting Image Book had a “Tory Atlas of The World”

    There’s a scan of it online here:

    http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/toryatlasoftheworld2.jpg

  24. If it can be proved that government policies have been changed, following donations to the Tory party, there will be significant shift in polling. This will be difficult to prove, but the claims in some of todays newspapers, will be damaging, if they gain momentum, by gaining TV news coverage. This could also impact on Boris winning the Mayoral election.

    Once the media get their teeth into a government, they just keep going, trying to get stories. Could we be witnessing the beginning of the end of this coalition government and an early GE ?

  25. pablo

    I got moderated for that one. But it is funny.

  26. R Huckle – Thanks

    Populus tables are here:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/Times%20April%202012.pdf

    But haven’t found TNS to complete the set.

    You wait ages for a non-YouGov poll …

  27. THE ECONOMIST & SKINTLAND
    @ Oldnat
    The Economist’s rudeness is proverbial & includes targets like African Heads of state. It’s a trait of right-wing economists, who think they rule the world [they do!]. Its cover was silly [tho I laughed at some of the puns] & had little relation to its articles on Scot. independence, which were OKish, if on the sceptical side: but economists are sceptics.

    The sweeping way in which you conflate the “London elite”, anti-Scottishness, the Economist, etc, seems as heavy-handed & unhelpful as the Economist’s cover & the equivalent of saying that Salmond is an “anti-English blusterer”
    The Economist at least is liberal on social issues: it has long supported gay marriage, which is more than can be said for Brian Souter, the largest single contributor to SNP funds, & who of course gave a £1 mill contribution to a campaign to retain Clause 28 [different no.? in Scotland]. Salmond is quite happy to “get into bed” with Souter [a joke AW!] & it seems puzzling to me that you pose as a stern upholder of “moral” politics while belonging to a party that accepts money from the Souters of this world.

  28. @David “But surely, seeing as the fieldwork was done during the whole of the last month, the start of which where Labour support was much higher, it is to be perfectly expected to see these numbers and it in no way discredits the recent yougov polls.”

    Not sure if I am missing something here but todays yougov definitely says fieldwork was carried out on 15/16th April, not any part of last month.

  29. Angus Reid haven’t always had the greatest of reputations on UKPR as they do tend to veer to the extremes for some reason, but the 29% Tory score backs up what I posted yesterday – the big news from these polls isn’t the UKIP score, but a consistent finding now among 4 individual polling companies that Tory VI is now down to the very low part of their range.

    I view this as being highly significant, as it isn’t based on external events or any positive Labour coverage, but seems more to do with the fact that Tory competence is damaged – a much more serious issue in the long term if the position isn’t recovered quickly.

  30. Percy Holmes @ THEWASH

    “Not convinced LAB are suddenly ahead on economy ”

    Well, I’m not convinced anything happens suddenly.

    nickp

    “I think there’s more likelihood of substantial SNP voters switching to Lab than Lab voters switching to Tory.”

    Or vice-versa. In fact there is a possibiliy that there may be every sort of churn other than that or LibDem gains or recovery.

    Cons are static, already down to their core non-tactial voters and beaten,not y their opponents,(they still have substantial suppor)t but by FPTP.

    The big movements in recent years have been from LibDem to SNP (2/3) and Lab (1/3).

    SLAB’s Achillies heel is the reputation for negativity and relative (in)competence which a poster above identified as UK Cons risk factor.

  31. Incidentally – I’m not sure if anyone picked up the Ernst & Young ITEM club report last week predicting growth of only 0.8% this year (half the OBR forecast) with a predicted 1.5% and 2.6% only in the next two years – well below what Osborne needs.

    They also point out (again) that UK companies are sitting on huge piles of cash – equivalent to 50% of GDP, while investment effectively stalled.

    I have to say, Osborne’s strategy on reducing Corporation Tax while limiting investment incentives is entirely wrong. He is encouraging building up even more cash reserves, when he should be doing everything to get the cash spent on investment.

  32. @Alec

    “Tory competence is damaged ”

    I’m waiting for a government spokesman to explain how the poor polling isn’t due to policy but poor communication, and all they need to do is get their message across more effectively…

  33. Now we’ve got the Angus Reid poll in with the Tories on 29% and a 12 point lead for Labour, I think it’s fairly safe to say, with the latest Populus, TNS and YouGov polls providing further corroboration, that the Conservatives have taken their biggest and most damaging hit since the formation of the Coalition in May 2010. Up to now their vote has been remarkably resilient and while the Lib Dems have taken all the collateral damage, the Tories have seemed somewhat immune from the vicissitudes of normal politics. This was true right up to the end of February and into March this year, but the post Budget whirlwind, combined with a multiplicity of other pratfalls, appears to have holed them below the waterline.

    We won’t know for a long time yet, but was Osborne’s calamitous budget Cameron’s Black Wednesday moment; a pivotal time in a Government’s life cycle where credibility is lost forever? Blair never quite had an equivalent in his 10 years but Brown’s was definitely “the election that never was” fiasco, followed by Northern Rock. Could Cameron’s master strategist have lit the slow-burning fuse to the large bomb that was always sitting underneath this Coalition?

  34. “Not convinced LAB are suddenly ahead on economy ”

    Well, they are. At least, in this particular poll.

    When people have talked in the past about Lab needing to regain their reputation on the economy or Ed M needing to improve his personal ratings, I’ve constantly tried to point out that it’s a relative thing.

    Ed and Labour have done virtually nothing for the last month – indeed, contributors here were complaining that Ed was out of the news throughout Easter when he should have been pressing home his advantage.

    Yet we now see polls suggesting Labour’s economic reputation is rising compared to the Tories. If people start thinking the Tories are rubbish, they will start to think Labour are better, regardless of what Labour have actually done or not done. This is why Tory economic competence stayed very low from 1997 – 2008. Simply because it appeared that Labour were doing OK.

    This is why Tory competence if absolutely critical. If they can’t regain the mantle of competence, Labour will sweep back in, Ed M or not.

  35. Polling wise it’s interesting.

    Last year we saw months of polldrums where Con was on 36, Lab about 5 pts higher and LD becalmed around 10. Then late last year we saw a sudden Tory surge, where they went up to Lab levels and Lab dropped a couple of points.

    Then gravity reasserted itself…but apparently gravity is stronger now and the Con vote is now several points under that 36 mark.

    Could it be that the veto gave some voters a feeling that somwthing good was happening…and when that proved an illusion instead of going back to Con they went elsewhere in disgust, mostly UKIP?

    That tax cut for the rich though…

  36. Crossbat,

    Though I don’t agree with many of Mr Miliband’s policies – I am much more left-wing than he is – I remember saying here some months ago that he is a clever politician who everyone is underestimating while having too much fun with the tiresome Wallace and Gromit nonsense.

    Blair was Bambi, but he put an end to tory election victories. I have some propably wild and naive hopes that Mr Miliband, in contrast to Blair, is actually a good, honest and skilful man of principle, but I have still to be convinced.

    Much more of this adept handling of the political situation will make me a troubled and conflicted lefty!

  37. @Alec

    Well you probably know the old saying. Better to keep your mouth shut and let people think you’re stupid than open your mouth and confirm it.

    Maybe Ed does too!

    And well done, UKIP. I’m sure this is a week that will live in infamy.

  38. No NickP, nothing to do with the veto. Conservatives such as myself were already struggling to accept Cameron’s attacks on the traditional institutuion of marriage and the nuclear family. We also weren’t too pleased with the stance on Europe overall, but again grinned and bared it.

    But then that budget just caused so much fury. We can stomach cuts, but taxes like the pasty tax, as well as the granny tax are just too much to handle. At the moment, Cameron isn’t following a Conservative path, as Nadine Dorris says on Conservative Home, Ukip policies are much more in like with actual conservatives, and Ukip don’t have the baggage of being in the pockets of the uber rich. So it’s a natural home for middle and working class former conservatives such as myself.

    In the general election, I think some of that support will go back to Cons, but if Cameron is still in charge, gay marriage goes through, and we have any more budgets like the one 3 weeks ago, then a lot of that support won’t come home. Also, the fear of Labour winning won’t be enough to pull people back as by in large, Cameron is going further and further towards Labours policies, especially on social issues, but now also economic issues, with tax rises etc.

    Actually on the subject of tax, Labour are advocating a cut in VAT, Cons cut the top rate for high earners, the majority of the party is more effected by Vat, than by the 50p tax rate, so in terms of lowering taxes, Labour are more conservative than Cameron.

  39. TinnedFringe,

    Thanks for the French polls. Do you know how they sample, because I’ve been following the Mélenchon campaign quite closely and have noted that they are attracting non-voters in large numbers.

    Do you know if the French sampling- and, though I shamelessly post here, I’m not a psephologist and don’t really understand the technical stuff – tends to exclude those who are unlikely to vote or who haven’t voted previously?

    Seeing the huge crowds the FdG is attracting all over the country, I would not be surprised to see their score higher than stated in the polls.

  40. @ Barney, Old Nat

    Re: The Economist

    I won’t buy nor read the Economist again after seeing the article which I mentioned – but I’d defend their right to print it. It was the cover story, so I might be able to find it on the internet later & post a link, if I have time to look.
    8-)

  41. UKIP? will they become the right’s answer to the SDP or are they a protest vote that will evaporate at the next general election when the chips are down?

    As a Labour supporter my gut reaction is that their support is soft and it will return to the Tories, but I also remember the early 80s when the Gang of Four etc felt disgruntled enough with the Labour Party to risk the inevitable period of Tory rule.

    There are probably others on here better placed to say if the average convert to UKIP is will risk a Labour victory at the next election in the hope of either forming a fourth party which can drag the whole political debate to the right or force major euro-sceptic concessions from a Tory Government.

    I can see the analogy with the SDP has one major flaw in that the SDP were seen as more centralist than Labour so they could appeal to Right wing Labour Voters, Old Liberals and One Nation Tories, while being more extreme (in the nicest sense of the word) will mean UKIP will only really take votes from Tories – or is this an oversimplification to try and view politics as a spectrum, and that UKIP are actually picking up some disgruntled Labour voters (maybes those who have flirted with the BNP as a protest vote and see immigration / job competition as their major concern).

  42. @TheTingedFringe
    Based on the results of previous PE combined with the respective VI polls of J-5 before the first round, it seems pretty safe to say that F. Hollande will be our next president. The average of all 7 polls between 10 and 16 April is, for the runoff, Hollande 55.5 and Sarkozy 44.5 (pretty similar to the poll that you have mentioned). This is quite unprecedented, and cannot be reversed (In 2007, at the same period, Sarkozy had an average of 52.5, and in fact he was elected with 53%). The discrepancy between first and second round is only apparent. Indeed, as you point out, the Left is around 46, the Right around 44 and the Center (Bayrou) around 10. But the Left is compact behind Hollande for the runoff, whereas Marine LePen is not willing to officially support Sarkozy. Of course her voters will go for the most part there, but, according to all polls, 15-10% of them will vote for Hollande and an equally important part will vote blank. Furthermore, the voters of Bayrou are slightly more in favor of Hollande, and this explains the double-digit lead of the latter over Sarkozy at the runoff. So the only two questions, with rather a psychological (or even betting) impact, but not a real political one are: 1. Who will top the 1st round (the 7 poll average shows an 1-point lead for Hollande), and 2. Who will be the third man (or woman) – for the time being LePen has a 2-point lead over Melenchon

  43. For the moment I think too much is being made of recent polls.The changes have their roots in the Budget not some dramatic ‘Black Wednesday’ sea change.

    Cameron has one advantage over Major and Brown – he’s not the head of a long-running dominant government.He will undoubtedly ask for more time in 2015.How credible that will be will depend on the relative performance of the economy between now and then,Still anybody’s guess really.

  44. Is Angus Reid’s poll another outlier?

    Decided voters (79% of respondents):

    SNP 47%
    Lab 33%
    Con 11%
    Lib 5%

    Based on my averages, the Con VI is roughly cut in half, while Labour loses 15% or so. Lib Dems relatively unchanged.

  45. @REDFISH “if the average convert to UKIP is will risk a Labour victory at the next election”

    Don’t know if you count me as average or not. I was a card carrying Conservative member, but then a few weeks ago when membership was due I didn’t renew it, and am contemplating supporting Ukip, I’m not actually a member though. But I have friends who are.

    Whether Ukip leaning cons are willing to risk Labour victory or not really depends on what Cameron does in the next few years. It feels to many of us, that the Conservative party is actually attacking Conservative supporters.

    As polls show, the 60+ age group is much more Conservative, things like the granny tax feels like a direct tax on them. In fact, Labour never did this, so to many of these voters, they might not just be willing to risk a Labour victory in 2015, they may be better off.

    Then you’ve got Social Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems support gay marriage, but what’s the point of voting Conservative, when they are going to put through gay marriage anyway, why would you fear Labour when Cameron is doing the same thing. In fact, Labour only went so far as Civil Partnerships, they didn’t attack marriage, so again, for these groups, maybe Labour would be better for them.

    Cameron has failed on immigration reform, so anyone fearing Labour’s policy of open door immigration, isn’t exactly comforted by Cameron’s Conservatives.

    Now we’ve got the attack on charities, to many on the right wing, they are very big on charities, think of the stereotype tory wife, she has a long list of charities which she dedicates her time to, while raising her kids. Cameron is not only taking away her child benefits as shes earning a bit too much, but now he’s also going to attack charity contributions.

    Cameron is doing the remarkable thing of managing to p**s everyone off both left and right. Another 3 years of this, and many may indeed think, so what if Labour get in, it’l be pretty similar and at least this way I can vote how I want.

  46. Virgilio,

    Do you know about the sampling techniques in French polling?

    How do they deal with previous non-voters?

  47. UKIP – I don’t assume that all their support is right wing. I think a lot of their support comes from social conservatives who are not particularly right-wing e.g. ‘Blue’ Labour, to coin a phrase.

    I don’t know if a couple of Tories ‘defecting’ – i.e. going to UKIP, if they are to lose their seats in the boundary review, would make much difference. But if a sizeable number of seat-losers shift to UKIP, it could be game on.

    I think backing from the Murdoch press might help UKIP more than Tory MPs going to UKIP. The Sun usually like to back the winner but they are going through interesting times. They may decide that there’s more sales in championing the underdog & attacking the Coalition/ Opposition than backing one of the established Parties.

    The other new thing is the Coalition itself. UKIP have seen that it can happen now. Why not go for that? So when people say: You can’t win, throw your support behind the Tories, UKIP can respond with the prospect of supporting a Tory minority government by forming a coalition with them in exchange for a “cast-iron guarantee” of a referendum on Europe :twisted:

    In summary, maybe we shouldn’t take the surge in UKIP support lightly; it may have more traction than we expect.

  48. Max,

    You are being triangulated, like we were by the Blairites.

    I can’t say I feel anything but mild schadenfreude but I know it is not nice to have your opinions ignored in what you consider to be your own party.

  49. @Amber

    A Blue labour party sounds heaven. Well the one you described, a party that is socially conservative, but then also follows New Labours supposed ideology of supporting growth and business but also looking after the little guy.

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