There are two new polls out tonight. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. So far this week YouGov’s daily polling has shown Labour leads of 5 points, 4 points, 3 points and 5 points, so it certainly looks as if the Labour lead has grown from the leads of one or two points that we were seeing last month.

The second poll is from TNS BMRB and has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 35%(-2), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 16%(+3).


172 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. TF – Andrew Stunnell said this on today’s DP, should be on i player by now.

  2. @Colin

    The famous/infamous hostorian David Starkey argued often that Tony Blair’s natural destiny was the destuction of the Labour Party in any meaningful sense. We’ll never know if he was right, as Blair never got the chance to see things through to a natural end.

  3. Martyn, my dear,one simply cannot be seen there these
    days.My daughter in law remembers when Liz
    Hurley used to walk around with her dog on a string in t he town centre.But
    we are all rather posh these days.not.

  4. Nothing on Vince’s comments about economic strategy?

  5. I actually thought that the modern version was quite close to reality. :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_People%27s_Flag_Is_Palest_Pink

  6. CHRIS LANE,you are a romantic and a gentleman,but
    then perhaps all historians are,with the exception of the truly odious and revolting Starkey.

  7. @Tinged Fringe

    As I’ve said, the Parliamentary Lib Dem party almost seem to be an entirely different political party to their local government and activists. Andrew Stunell already has form for insulting his own activists. He told a HIV sufferer who contacted Lib Dem MPs about the NHS reforms to “Consider just how counterproductive[sic] it is likely to be to send an unsolicited bar-room rant to a load of very busy people at the end of a long day.” http://www.unitetheunion.org/news__events/latest_news/liberal_democrat_mps__insult_.aspx

    I don’t think it even occurs to them that they have to face re-selection by their own party members. Or maybe looking at the electoral prospects, they’ve stopped caring? As I said before, there is blood in the water for the Lib Dem conference, and now we find out if what’s left are sharks or sheep.

  8. Good evening all.
    I have seen a new Angus Reid poll that puts Labour 8% ahead. 40 to 32.
    I haven’t seen the Liberal figure by the way.

  9. 50% of young black males unemployed.A very worrying
    statistic indeed.

  10. I still think Angus Reid has a pretty heavy negative bias for the incumbent party of government because of their “Primer” question.

  11. Good Evening again, fantastic chess match.

    Labour is reported by the ‘I’ to have done well in some local by elections on Thursday

  12. Maybe some one else has posted earlier.

    The NHS risk document is going to have to be published.

    Civil servants have said it is ‘chilling’

    Mmmm.

    Things may be turning, me thinks.

    How much more can the Lib Dems here, nice people genuinely, take. Fond regards to Henry and all.

  13. oldnat

    That’s the one. Thanks.

  14. Interestingly, the Angus Reid press release is listing UKIP equally with the big three.

    Although this shouldn’t really make a difference, putting UKIP on equal footing with the other three parties might prompt people to give them more serious consideration than they would otherwise. Anyway, we’ll see.

  15. Chrislane: shot in a chair? Wrong Connolly, methinks.

  16. @colin Your link suggests that although Gordon Brown has earned over £1 million, he hasn’t actually kept any of it for himself. I find this resistance to the lure of wealth accumulation to be rather admirable.

  17. Also, the emergency motions ballot for the Lib Dem conference has been announced. (STV Vote on which emergency motion will be put to the floor for from those filed)

    There will be a choice between the motion from Shirley Williams for limited amendments to the NHS bill, and the ‘withdraw the entire bill’ motion. So which one of those goes to the floor will indicate which way the wind is blowing within the party. I think there’s a fairly good chance the ‘Withdraw the entire bill’ motion will end up being put to the floor, and a pretty good chance it passes if it does.

  18. ANN MILES.
    What on earth brought that compliment on?

    LANDOCAKES.
    Well, it is a good story. Are you saying that the wrong James Connolly got shot in a chair in Kilmainham Gaol by brave welsh soldiers?
    Or that this particular Connolly, of the Irish Citizen Army, comrade of Larkin as well as Pearse et co, did not write The Red Flag hymn?
    (The author may be a James Connell)

  19. ‘I don’t think it even occurs to them that they have to face re-selection by their own party members. Or maybe looking at the electoral prospects, they’ve stopped caring? As I said before, there is blood in the water for the Lib Dem conference, and now we find out if what’s left are sharks or sheep.’

    Stunnell will be retiring at the next election so perhaps feels he has nothing to lose but Williams was foolish because there is potential for a huge loss of votes to Lab and greens in his constituency.

  20. “I have seen a new Angus Reid poll that puts Labour 8% ahead. 40 to 32.”

    I love the smell of Angus Reid in the evening. It smells like………….victory!

  21. Crossbat

    You are so right . Victory for the SNP at 47% over 32% for Labour in Scotland!

  22. CROSSBAT11

    Ah! I know what you mean. The Macbeth cross break SNP 47% : Lab 34% – pity that, as a poll, it has all the validity of the witches’ predictions. Wait though ……. :-)

  23. Charlie

    Snap.

  24. Since the 2010 GE, Angus Reid puts Con consistently in the 31-35% range.

    Labour at 37-43%.

    LD quickly fell from a high of 16%; post tuition fees they have been at 8-12%.

  25. Electoral Calculus makes it 36 for the Nats, 15 for Labour and a solitary one for the Libs under the new boundaries in SCOTLAND. – AT 47- 34 SNP to Lab.from Angus Reid.

    NIL POINTS FOR THE TORIES!

  26. @Jayblanc (11.06 pm)

    “There will be a choice between the motion from Shirley Williams for limited amendments to the NHS bill, and the ‘withdraw the entire bill’ motion. So which one of those goes to the floor will indicate which way the wind is blowing within the party. I think there’s a fairly good chance the ‘Withdraw the entire bill’ motion will end up being put to the floor, and a pretty good chance it passes if it does.”

    ————————————————————————
    Jayblanc,
    Totally agree with your comments above.

    Lib Dem Voice survey of members :- 57% vs 32% vote to drop the Health & Social Care bill. 72% believe passing the bill will damage the party. While the survey is only based on those LD members signed in to LDV and who bothered to vote, I suspect it is fairly accurate reflection of the members’ views. However, despite this, based on tonights TV news, it seems the leadership are hell bent on supporting Lansley.

    Consequently, unfortunately the 72% will be proved correct. I have already advised Clegg by letter that if the bill is passed he can have back my membership card although I will continue to support our local LD councillors who do a much better job than some of our right wing MPs.

    As others have commented above, we are now two separate parties, parliamentary and the majority of the rank and file. Perhaps, of course, the aim of the leadership is to have a single narrow church party following the departure of centre left LDs. :)

  27. PETER BELL

    I presume that this conference is of the Federal LD Party? Are Scots and Welsh delegates allowed to vote on what is entirely an English matter like the reform of NHS England?

  28. Philip Collins in The Times today said that Cameron “looks and sounds Prime Minesterial”.

    Then the Angus Reid poll. Cameron net approval -20. Milliband, -25.

    So presumably even an arch-Blairite like Collins would have to conclude that young Ed is currently looking and sounding very nearly Prime Ministerial.

  29. LEFTYLAMPTON

    Perhaps Collins meant that Cameron “looks and sounds” like Anthony Eden, or Spencer Perceval.

    “Prime Ministerial” isn’t necessarily a description of anything good. In which case your placing Miliband in proximity to Cameron seems rather appropriate.

  30. @Peter Bell

    I think this may even go beyond, perhaps way beyond the issue of left and right. It is about the degree to which the leadership of uk parlianentary parties are bound by their members. Of course we do not have direct democracy, and the leadership of all parties have sone degree of lattitude. But there comes a point where red lines are crossed and the leadership no.longer represent their party but only themselves.

    And in the case of the LDs, this has echoes (albeit far more serious internally) of the Blair government’s position on Iraq. Then as now, there was a chasm between the aporoach of the leadership and that of the membership. Then, as now, the membership were told that the leadership were taking a pragmatic global view, in order to reap long term strategic benefits (in this case, the experience of taking unpopular decisions in government, with the perceived benefit that one day the electorate will consider the LDs competent and serious governing material). But I fear that Clegg, like Blair, either through hubris, or in Clegg’s case inertia; has overplayed his hand and may not have much more road to run.

  31. @Oldnat

    Wasn’t Spencer Perceval shot in the Commons? Eden was taken down by his own side. Cameron is unlikely to meet that fate.

    what are Clegg’s PM numbers in the AR poll?

  32. CROSSBAT11

    Manchester United have won the FA Youth Cup 10 times.
    We do produce our own players from the tragic Babes to the Famous Five.
    We have produced more England players than any other team by a country mile.
    Is it Aston Villa you proport to support, probably from the comfort of your sofa, judging by their crowds.
    They only fill the place when they play United.
    I know this is a political site but you stareted it.

  33. Lefty,

    You’re absolutely right about Ed. Looking and sounding Prime Ministerial (or “very nearly” as you put it). The country awaits, eager to embrace him as PM come the next election. Please don’t deprive them of the chance with all this silly talk about him not being up to it……..

  34. RAF

    You got my Perceval reference. Cameron is unlikely to have a literal repetition of that – although a metaphorical one is quite possible with a PM who doesn’t grasp detail very well.

    Milliband doesn’t seem to be the one with the “assassin’s” skills, however.

  35. @ Old Nat (11.58)

    Yes, it is the spring conference of the federal LD party. As far as I am aware voting on all motions is open to all voting representatives so will include all Scottish members who are representing their area.

  36. “what are Clegg’s numbers in the AR poll?”
    22% approve
    68% disapprove
    10% don’t know

  37. @Ozwald

    ‘”what are Clegg’s numbers in the AR poll?”’

    “22% approve
    68% disapprove
    10% don’t know”

    Thanks Ozwald. So that’s:

    Cameron -20
    Miliband -25
    Clegg – 46

    Although I think it should be noted that since the GE, AR has tended to show lower figures for the Tories/Cameron that other polling organisations.

  38. Stockport Red,

    We do all love ManU, honestly. I don’t have the stomach for prawn sarnies, otherwise I’d be there every week.
    Check your stats though, reckon there are other teams that have provided more England players than your ‘beloved’. Certainly, the “country mile” was a nice piece of footy hyperbole. Fergie would be proud.

    (funnily enough, just had a look, and whilst a year out of date, as at Feb 11, the team that had provided most England players was Villa. Don’t imagine the last 12 months has turned that into the Stretford country mile)

  39. HOODEDMAN
    You may have a point on the really ancient history, when AV won most of their trophies.
    In more recent times and going back to after the second world war, United win by a country mile.
    I have no love for the Yanks but I will be there on Sunday, minus said prawn butty, it’s in the blood.
    I like WBA, a lovely friendly away game but passionate support for the home team.

  40. Peter Bell

    I’m sure that you will enjoy the input from the Scottish delegates. They may well vote for policies in England that they would vehemently oppose (at least in public) for their own constituencies.

    Federalism clearly has a long way to go in the Lib Dems, before you actually understand what it means!

  41. @STOCKPORT RED

    “I know this is a political site but you started it.”

    What a great sig. Pity we can’t use them here.

  42. @ Peter Bell

    It almost goes without saying, I hope the LD members eschew Lord Shirley Williams’ motion & go for the other option. I do believe that you are correct in your view: The future of the LDs is now resting squarely on the shoulders of the members who will make this decision on the NHS Bill.

    FWIW, thousands of Labour supporters don’t care about the political capital that would be gained by Labour from the LD’s supporting Lansley’s Bill; we are 100% behind the LD members who want to bin it & dearly hope that they will succeed.
    8-)

  43. @ Scotswaehae (I know I haven’t seen you around in a while)

    Wanted to share this peice of good polling news that might please you.

    http://www.prop8trialtracker.com/2012/03/09/poll-increasing-opposition-to-north-carolinas-amendment-one/

    There are a couple of problems to note. The poll doesn’t poll likely voters. Now, if election were being held in November, I’d feel more confident because in 2008, “likely voters” would have delivered a very different election result and from all appearances, the 2012 electorate will be more like 2008. But that’s for the November general. The legislature, in a sneaky (and deliberate) move has made sure it’s on the ballot in May when the turnout will be dramatically lower.

    Btw, Kay Hagan came out in public opposition to this. This is impressive (I remember 6 years ago when Jim Webb came out and opposed a similar amendment in Virginia…….it was extremely bold of him to do at the time as it was considered politically unwise…which shows you how far we’ve come).

  44. Good Morning.
    CROSSBAT11 AND STOCKPORT RED.

    The season is at a cross roads today, with Citeh’s games now apparently more difficult than United’s.

    In the 1960’s and 1970’s it was impossible for catholics in Manchester, Salford or Stockport etc to get to Confession when United were at home.

    And they almost invariable voted Labour. Just reading Thorpe’s magisterial History of Labour, as you do on a Saturday morning with the family home from boarding school this weekend.

    Exciting rugby and soccer results to come.

  45. Interesting poll from Yougov (1089 people) –
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ufxnsc11vd/Unison%20Results%20120306%20NHS%20Lib%20Dems%20-%20For%20Website.pdf
    Asking voters who have not decided which party yet to vote for but still consider voting LibDem –
    “If the Liberal Democrat Party called for the Health and Social Care Bill to be dropped, would you be more likely to vote for them at the next election, less likely to vote for them or would it make no difference to you?”
    29% More Likely
    13% Less Likely
    12% I would vote for them anyway
    23% I would not vote for them anyway

    By 2010-vote breakdown (warning: small subsample alert)-
    Con –
    9% More likely
    26% Less likely

    So if they’re going after Con voters, it’ll be important for them to continue on, but..

    Lab –
    45% More likely
    6% Less likely
    Lib –
    41% More likely
    8% Less likely

    So if they’re trying to recover their lost voters and win more Labour voters, it seems that dropping the bill would be a good starting place.
    Also assuming that the LibDems want to start their electoral plan of distancing themselves from the Tories early, taking a stand on the NHS reforms would probably be the biggest thing they could take a stand on.

    The only major problem with the poll is the lack of ‘What happens if they pass the bill?’ question – it would have been very interesting to see the numbers for LibDem/LibDem2010/Labour for ‘less likely to vote’ if the reforms passed.

  46. First post here so hi everyone.

    Ive been following the site for a long while now and look forward to reading the comments.

    As you can see from my username its pretty obvious who i vote for, so i will not claim to be neutral.

    With the recent 3-5% leads labour have been showing ive noticed some of the labour supporters feeling happier about things but if being honest how on earth could you be?

    The goverment is making huge cuts and are unpopular right now and all the opposition has is still only a 3-5% lead.
    If the situation was reversed i would be very very worried about the party at the next election.

    All it will take is some relativtly good news from the goverments side and the partys will be neck and neck again.

  47. BLUEBOB
    1) Most of the cuts have not been implemented yet.
    2) See here:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4774
    AW sums it up well –
    “Under normal circumstances it would be arguable that Labour were doing quite well given the situation, but probably not enough to win an election. Under the present circumstances one could well argue that Labour are not doing well at all, but if the realignment of Lib Dem support is stickier than normal mid term gains it’s possible it could be enough.”

  48. Welcome BlueBob.
    Worth checking the link above if you have not already.
    FWIW, as an LP member my target is to narrow the gap on the conservatives at the enxt GE to 5% or less. Enough to prevent a conservative OM. There is a chance imo of Labour getting within 3% which may give them more seats but most votes would be very difficult from the base in 2010.

    Whilst Anthony is sceptical of saying the opposition need lead x now, historical evidence suggests there is a drift in the Governments direction in the last year or so before a GE.
    What none of us know us how the coalition realities affect this; most posters on here expect an LD recovery to 13-18% with a better performance in seats they are defending but truth is we don’t know.

    I believe the reason many LP supporters on here are encouraged at the moment is because the leader has done better this year whilst at the same time the Government seems to be struggling a little.
    3-4% VI lead for Labour means little now but it is encouraging; also those LD returnees have been with us for 18 months or more now suggesting a high proportion are here to stay and that a 35% base is a strong possibility.

  49. “If the situation was reversed i would be very very worried about the party at the next election.”
    —————————-
    Meanwhile, Tory Grandees ponder on the more important fact that it is 20 years since they won a working majority and Lab are much more likely to benefit long-term from LD meltdown than blues.

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