There are two new polls out tonight. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. So far this week YouGov’s daily polling has shown Labour leads of 5 points, 4 points, 3 points and 5 points, so it certainly looks as if the Labour lead has grown from the leads of one or two points that we were seeing last month.

The second poll is from TNS BMRB and has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 35%(-2), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 16%(+3).


172 Responses to “New YouGov and TNS BMRB polls”

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  1. @Tinged Fringe

    Except we know a substantial portion of the past Lib Dem voters have switched voter intent to Labour. So it would require them to also decide not to vote Labour after all. And for Labour not to have regained it’s own non-voters. And for the Conservatives to have put their own vote share up over the last election…

    None of which are reflected in current polling.

  2. JAYBLANC

    “The problem with NHS reforms is no one seems able to explain the actual problems they are fixing, and how the fixes work to make the NHS better. ”

    I think that is very true.

    Pretty poor show for which they have paid a price.

  3. “Unless they make bloody certain that it is understood they will just repeat the mistake they made over tuition fees.”
    I agree there – if they get people to accept their narrative, then they’ll be hurt less than otherwise.

    However the narratives that they’ve shackled to it will probably do more harm than good (Williams vs Burnham – ignoring Evan Harris, Ben Goldacre, etc), telling people that it’s all down to misunderstandings (insulting the voter’s intelligence, even if the opposition is actually just down to misunderstanding), ‘We have nothing to apologise for’ and ‘It’s time to move on’ (A repeat of the narratives of Labour on Iraq), etc

  4. HAL

    Fair comment.

  5. When do the boundary changes go through again?

    I agree with other posters on here that if the country is booming by 2015 the conservatives will romp it.

    If the country is still not out of the woods then they will still just edge it.

    Im not saying everybody will fall in love with the torys, they will stay in because,
    1) It will take longer than 5 years for people to stop blaming Labour for the economic woes and
    2) EM is just not electable, he is nearly impossible to like.

    Now if it was his brother in charge,…well then i would be worried.

  6. JAYBLANC

    I really don’t feel qualified to debate the clinical options for providing physio .

    CCGs will decide what is best.

    The expanded membership of CCGs would seem pretty certain to provide a balanced view of the best approach for a given area/locality.

  7. Incidentally, all medical advice is that treatment that requires high skills, or access to specific equipment, is best handled at hospitals that are large enough to dedicate enough resources to that department. ‘Localisation’ and moving services to local ‘health centres’ is pretty much the opposite of this. There really is a very limited amount of care that could be safely moved away from Hospitals that isn’t already handled that way.

    The biggest problem with the NHS is, if anything, the lack of trained nurses and doctors. Something the reforms do nothing to address, and may well make worse by taking the focus away from a National Health Service that can address that, into Regional Health Services that focus on their own local needs.

  8. AMBER

    ………….if what you assert is correct then much as it will pain you -&me-you will get your silver lining & a Labour Government.

    I am reluctant to respond to your natural inclination to personal abuse-but will say in defence of Shirley Williams ( who is not a Lord-despite your little gender based dig) , that for a woman whos politics have always been alien to me , I believe she knows more about the NHS Bill than anyone apart from Lansley.

    She has immersed herself in the detail & done a good job for her cause as a result.

    Whether this has improved or hindered the reforming ability of the Bill depends on your viewpoint .

  9. Tuition fees was difficult for the LDs because of the pledge they made before the GE but they did have the coalition agreement defence and if we are honest Labour introduced fees and would have increased them, possibly to £6K a year.
    I think the biggest issue for DC is ‘no top down reorganisations’ and as the impact of changes may not be obvious by the GE it becomes a big part of the broken promises charge that Labour will make in 2015.
    For the LDs it is clear that they don’t really want the bill at all but are feeling compelled by the realities of Coalition, on this occassion though the NHS bill goes beyond the coalition agreement so they are choosing to support someting they are not obliged to.
    Like the Economy, if all goes well the cons get the credit and if badly the LDs will be punished for allowing them to do as they wish or so it seems.
    Virgilo has provided a superb summary of the position of Junior partners in Coalitions so the LDs position is not unique but they do seem to be making a bad job of things.
    Saying a la Farron we have 75% of our manifesto in place is irrelevant if the 25% is the most important (reverse Pareto kind of) and the measures the Cons have introduced facilatated by the LDs are an anathema to many of their ertswhile supporters.
    I was always of the view that the LDs would recover to the high teens by 2015 and hold perhaps 35 seats but I am now doubting this for the first time.

  10. @colin
    “Who now really believes that the tuition fee deal is such a problem?”

    Take a look at how fees are set to rocket at the Open University. Anyone considering studying with a view to changing career or for personal development will have a significant financial obstacle to overcome, and these are older people who are more likely to vote. As a current student I worry for the future of the OU.

    And the issue of trust is important. This was not just a manifesto item to be bargained away in coalition: LD candidates made public signed personal pledges to vote against an increase. No ifs or buts. All those who voted for the increase or simply abstained showed that they could not be trusted or were foolish to make such a promise, or both. If this is not a fatal political flaw then I don’t know what is.

  11. @Amberstar And Colin, the possibility of political gain for Labour is no silver lining to me, if paid for by the suffering of my fellow citizens.

    Bloody hell. Hear hear.

    You have a future in politics Amber. Superb comment. More power to you.

  12. The universities problem is a time-bomb. Some universities could well go bust once it is clear they don’t have enough students.

    It could happen as early as 2013 but my guess a little later. The problems will slowly accumulate into a death spiral as students start avoiding the weaker institutions, just in case they go bust. Then they will go bust.

  13. @JIMJAM
    “I was always of the view that the LDs would recover to the high teens by 2015 and hold perhaps 35 seats but I am now doubting this for the first time.”

    My gut-feeling is that our (I still find it hard to not think of myself as a LD but everyday I drift further away) current low position in the polls is a result of ill-will and disappointment over what the parliamentary party has done. Unless there is some significant and obvious good news about the economy and the NHS (maybe 50/50 on the former, very unlikely on the latter even if the bill were a good idea) then I think that by 2015 LDs will be looking fondly back at the current low polling figures as the good old days.

    I believe that at the next election, polling and marginal seats will be under closer scrutiny than ever. Will anti-conservative voters still see the LDs as a least worst option? Will conservative voters see LDs as suitable alternatives? Will LDs be simply ignored as an alternative to anything, providing a huge opportunity for other parties and independents? Could certainly be interesting and national polling might not reflect the distribution of seats.

  14. JIM JAM – I agree. Many students voted LIb Dem for the tuition fees pledge. All Lib Dem MPs with big colleges & universities in their constituencies watch out. The EMA decision was also a bad move. How to alienate a generation of young people in one fell swoop. Then there was the flip-flop on VAT. Most Lib Dem voters probably weren’t that bothered about the 75% of their manifesto which has been pushed through or iss in the pipeline – pupil premium, school policies or the tax issues etc . Now they look like they might alienate their older voters who will rely on the NHS in the next few years.
    The way Clegg & Farron are talking about not looking back looks like they are trying to forget their cataclismic errors of judgement.
    Everyone who has made mistakes wants to try to ignore them and move on. I hope the electorate remember.
    It is odd that they keep hammering on about differentiation on issues that are not the most important but are towing the Tory line on all of the things that matter most – the NHS privatisation and the deficit reduction strategy.

  15. @HAL
    “It could happen as early as 2013 but my guess a little later. The problems will slowly accumulate into a death spiral as students start avoiding the weaker institutions, just in case they go bust. Then they will go bust.”

    This is my biggest concern about creating artificial markets in education and health. If a normal business goes bust, its customers are inconvenienced and other suppliers move in to fill the gap. If a free school goes bust or the committed founding parents lose interest once their children have left, what happens to the futures of those kids who are still there? If a university goes bust, what happens to those students who have nothing to show for 3 years work? If a hospital goes bust, what happens to the patients – will the energy companies simply pull the plug on the life-support machines? People who receive health and education services are not just customers who can shop around and change suppliers whenever they want, and leaving the market to “decide” seems to be a means to allow a government to deny responsibility for any failures or shortcomings. I think that in these areas collaboration should be king, not competition.

  16. Amber,thank you for the clarification.Totally agree of course.What really takes the pip for me today is SW
    accusing Poly Toynbee of lying.How extraordinary,I thought the Guardian supported the Lib Dems!

  17. “LD’s decide to debate the SW motion, rather than the “drop.the bill” motion by 309 votes to 280.”

    I hear the sound of another very large nail being driven into a coffin.

    Still, I expect old Cleggy is pleased to have lived to fight another day and I have no doubt that a congratulatory message has been dispatched to him from his mate Cammo.

    Meanwhile the Lib Dem train hurtles its remorseless way towards the electoral cliff edge.

    Forgive them, for they know not what they do.

  18. Blue Bob,alas 42% of the population do not agree with
    your estimation of EMs electability!

  19. @Colin

    “Shirley Williams………………… a woman whos politics have always been alien to me ,”

    My God, just how right wing are you???

  20. Ah Crossbat.

    How pleased you must be to see the LibDems taking your advice so much to heart-and acting so decisively to ” to be an independent political party with a unique identity.”

    I must confess to some surprise at reading how much Mr Farron feels a sense of different identity to Mr Burnham.

    :-)

    or if you prefer

    lol

  21. I’m not sure the NHS bill will necessarily have any effect on what seats the LDs are currently likely/unlikely to win in 2015
    (in terms of affecting LD-Tory marginals).

    I think it’ll just lead to an even greater collapse in their vote in seats Labour are on course to win from them anyway such as Cambridge and Manchester Withington etc as well as in a lot of Labour held seats.

  22. @ Anthony,

    I’m sorry for posting my scathing remark about Lord Williams. I’m not sorry for the comment. I’m only apologising for making it here!

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