Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%. The two main parties remain extremely close, but we’re seeing more marginal Labour leads than marginal Tory ones (in the last fortnight’s YouGov polls there have been 7 Labour leads, 3 Tory leads), suggesting the underlying position is a very narrow Labour lead.

Ipsos MORI have also released the rest of their regular Scottish poll, showing Holyrood constituency voting intentions. Topline figures there are CON 13%(+1), LAB 23%(-3), LDEM 10%(+2), SNP 49%(-2), Others 5%.


262 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 39, LAB 41, LDEM 8”

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  1. @JAMES COLE

    Agreed, but judges are always aware of public opinion, and from time to time justice must be seen to be done (London Riots offenders received heavy sentences).

  2. @SoCal Liberal

    “There’s a significant difference between those who illegally avoid paying taxes and those who take advantage of legal loopholes.”

    In the eyes of the law, yes. In the eyes of public opinion, I think it’s more dependent on circumstances. We may have more sympathy for a guy who gets stung by HMRC for making a mistake on their self-assessment form than for someone who earns millions but ‘arranges their affairs’ such that they pay minimal tax.

    Right/Wrong is not the same dividing line as Legal/Illegal.

  3. Good Evening, freezing here, just back from chess, my boyhood game which I played for Nick P’s school, lol.

    Simon Hughes knew what he was doing with the straight choice slogan, as did THE SUN.

    tax avoidance and tax evasion. Both morally wrong for rich people I think, in hard times.

    COLIN.
    Obtuse or obstruse?

    Sometimes irony weakly attempted.

  4. Leftylampton

    “Such a challenge would do two things.
    1) It would move Labour back to a (to Nelson) safer centrist position.
    2) The turmoil would effectively kill Labour’s chances in 2015”

    1) I agree

    2) I totally disagree.

    Nelson is worried we might dump the brothers Milli: and hopeful that we keep both (or at least one of them).

    As you now- my position for a very long time is that Labour will lose the next election if it has *either* anywhere near the leadership.

    I hope to not be telling you ‘I told you so’ come the next GE…..

  5. ROB SHEFFIELD.
    You are absolutely right about the two ‘Milli’s’

    And it is ‘our people’ to use Bevin and Bevan phrasing that suffer while the ‘left’ muck it up- again- as TIGMOO did in 1951, 1955, 1959, 1979, 1983 and 1987 and 1992 did.

    Who stopped all that nonsense and won three times in a row, and was then pushed out, in order for TIGMOO to lose in 2010 and how many GE’s after that?

  6. chrislane1945

    We’ll win next time out under Ed M and what’s more I’ll beat you at chess.

  7. @ Danivon

    “In the eyes of the law, yes. In the eyes of public opinion, I think it’s more dependent on circumstances. We may have more sympathy for a guy who gets stung by HMRC for making a mistake on their self-assessment form than for someone who earns millions but ‘arranges their affairs’ such that they pay minimal tax.

    Right/Wrong is not the same dividing line as Legal/Illegal.”

    Yeah, I suppose that’s true.

    I have less sympathy for someone who is accused of tax evasion than someone who is accused of welfare fraud. Taxes are complicated, extremely complicated. It’s easy to make mistakes and not realize there were certain forms you had to file or certain fees that were payable or certain things you needed to pay taxes on. It’s easy to screw up. An honest mistake is an honest mistake.

    Of course, I’m one who supports Capital Gains Taxes and resents Mitt Romney for making them unpopular and raising public attention about them.

  8. @ Danivon

    It’s also a societal thing I think. If you live in a country where direct government benefits are those that pretty much everyone gets and everyone relies upon, I could see having sympathy for those who make mistakes on self-assessment forms.

    On the other hand, if you live in a country where direct government benefits are largely the province of the indigent and those living below the poverty line, your attitude might be different. People who abuse those kinds of benefits are taking advantage of a limited and finite resource designed to help the worst off in society (taking what doesn’t belong to you and depriving others who really need it). And because of the limited nature of those benefits, it’s hard to imagine people accidentally defrauding a public welfare agency.

  9. NICK P.
    Ok i will take that as a double whammy promise.

    Did you play for Crown Point Comp then?

    Golden Age 1966-1973 for chess: Terry Chapman was the star

  10. @Crossbat,

    We love you too <3

  11. Colin

    I have no knowledge of his early years. I based my comment on his, and his colleagues, damage to the LibDem cause which was forseen by many in the region.

    No attempt was made to limit the damage, or, as far as I can see repair it. The MP in this constituency has recently had a much lower profile and it may be that he expects as many do, that the SNP will win the seat next time and that nothing he may do would secure re-election so he now does nothing.

    LibDem councillors and members in this part of the world have worked tirelessly for decades to build up support and for eight years their MSP’s were in coalition with Labour. It was a long and very gradual progress, but showing steady success in the West. Their efforts have now been trashed.

    LibDems helped to bring about devolution while the SNP sulked, up till the last stage. They made a valuble contribution to the parliament and are now on the threshhold of falling below the number required to be recognised as a party group. We are the poorer that they are now so weak, though they are also suffering from retiral of their best people.

    I supported Libdem candidates myself when I came to this constituency.

    They must have known that much of their support in this part of Scotland was anti-Con, and it evaporated when they went into coalition with the Conservatives.

    DA and other Scottish Libdem MP’s have destroyed the party in Scotland for the sake of beng office for one term.

    Loyalty is a virtue you think. Loyalty to a principle might be, but loyalty to a leader who leads you in the wrong direction, damages your party and destroys the work of dozens of your colleagues is not.

    I do not think you can fairly call me a cybernat. I am not a SNP member; I split my vote, and, though I will vote for independence as I have said here often, It is not the ideal way to govern these Islands and should not be necessary.

  12. Chrislane.

    Obtuse I think-though would settle for abstruse too.

    Obstruse ???

    Now you are being obtuse again :-) :-)

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