Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%. It’s the first Tory lead from YouGov for the best part of a week, but only serves to underline that the two main parties are still pretty much neck-and-neck.

This has been the position in the polls for about seven weeks now – ever since David Cameron’s “veto” at the European Summit, and probably reinforced or replaced by the turbulent month that Labour have had since then.


121 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 38%, LD 10%”

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  1. BILLY BOB

    Yes. Haven’t you noticed how, in England, there is a constant ridiculing of those in the North by those in the South, and vice versa?

  2. There hasn’t been a single example since 1945 of a party losing office at one election only to win a majority at the next. The closest thing was Labour getting back into power in Feb 1974 but that was a minority government of course.

  3. Joe James B

    ” And why no outrage against football salaries or Z list celebs who make millions out of vandalising the English language on chat shows and probably came from sink schools.”

    How dare you suggest that anyone who comes form a “sink school” is not entitled to success or a large income when they have a talent that folk are willing to pay for, I see now that all this Tory whining over footballers pay is just class warfare

    I’m hopping mad, your attitude is that anyone who went to a “sink school” is worthless. I will send you the bill for the repairs to the wall!!

    And what’s wrong with all the leftys on this board, you are all willing to jump down the throats of posters that make sexist, racist or homophobic remarks, but completely ignore blatant classism(ok I made that word up, but it should be a word) no wonder labour can’t get out its vote.

  4. RiN

    Alas, you make an exaggerated claim as to your neologism –

    “Classism is differential treatment based on social class or perceived social class. Classism is the systematic oppression of subordinated class groups to advantage and strengthen the dominant class groups. It’s the systematic assignment of characteristics of worth and ability based on social class.”

  5. Interesting report on BBC website.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16790168

    Basically saying that for all the blather and strife about the public sector pension reforms, the new regime is basically just as generous as the old one.

    Perhaps an example of why you have to come over all intolerant and Thatcherite to achieve any kind of cuts at all. “Consensus and negotiation” just leads you round in a circle.

    Apparently it was the switch from RPI to CPI indexinng that will make the real difference. The current proposals are just swings and roundabouts.

  6. @OLDNAT

    Also reverse can happen. Tory toffs and all that. Reverse snobbery I think it’s called.

    I remember a time when everyone had a thicker skin. However, that was before the Internet and in general politics, football and religeon were kept to oneself, unless specifically seeking out any of the above.

    Someone accused me of being a Fifer a couple of months back. The effrontery!

  7. @NEIL A

    Not been following that story. Isn’t it also a case of new public sector contracts will be different, so natural wastage will reduce the tax bill?

  8. STATGEEK

    “Also reverse can happen” It’s late. I’m sure you are referring to something – but i have no idea what!

  9. Oldnat

    “neologism” you just made that word up, didn’t you :lol:

  10. @Andrew Myers

    There is no ‘party of government’ at the moment, so even assuming such is true (and it isn’t always) the Conservatives can’t benefit from it.

  11. @ Statgeek

    “Also reverse can happen. Tory toffs and all that. Reverse snobbery I think it’s called.”

    I think it’s all classism. Kinda pointless and backwards if you ask me.

  12. @ Andy JS

    “There hasn’t been a single example since 1945 of a party losing office at one election only to win a majority at the next. The closest thing was Labour getting back into power in Feb 1974 but that was a minority government of course.”

    I wonder why that is. Is it that voters get used to voting in favor of governments who do a job they disapprove of and are unhappy with?

  13. @SOCAL

    “I think it’s all classism. Kinda pointless and backwards if you ask me.”

    Pretty much agree. Unfortunately, entire sections of British society did and still do thrive on such things. There’s always someone else to blame for one’s own shortcomings.

  14. SOCALLIBERAL

    “I think it’s all classi[ci]sm. Kinda pointless and backwards if you ask me”

    And thus you carelessly toss aside the pretend differences within the British political class! Have you no shame?

    How could Cameron, Clegg and Miliband survive if they didn’t pretend to represent bits of other social classes – despite them all coming from the same one?

    Next you’ll be trying to sell us the idea that either of the main US parties wants to restrict rampant capitalism!

  15. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100133598/david-camerons-u-turn-will-advance-the-eurosceptic-cause/

    DT calls it a U-turn already- and the normally Dave philiac Tobe as well.

  16. & Socallliberal
    “I think it’s all classism. Kinda pointless and backwards if you ask me.””

    Kinda strange how kinda often you kinda use the word kinda, kinda. Would be kinder, kinda, if you used kinda, kinda less kinda often, kinda.

  17. @ Richard in Norway

    “How dare you suggest that anyone who comes form a “sink school” is not entitled to success or a large income when they have a talent that folk are willing to pay for, I see now that all this Tory whining over footballers pay is just class warfare.”

    Do the Tories really complain about what soccer players get paid? I’ve heard a lot of people knock the amount of pay that professional athletes receive. I don’t join them. Professional athletes work hard and entertain millions. They make massive amounts of money for the organizations they play for and they should get paid what they earn. It’s weird that Tories would complain about something like that. As Chef Terry of Fawlty Towers once said “that’s the free market.”

    This is why I generally take the side of the labor unions of professional athletes in disputes with owners of professional sports teams. Owners are usually billionaires and make a lot of money from their sports franchises that they wouldn’t make if not for the professional athletes.

    “I’m hopping mad”

    I say save your energy. There are other things to get angrier about.

  18. ROBBIEALIVE

    Why would you want to insist that SoCalLiberal uses your particular variation of the English language?

    that English is now the dominant world language is largely down to the dominance of the USA in the world in the second half of the 20th century.

    While I don’t see US economic and military dominance lasting for too many years, the conquest of the world by their variant of English is likely to remain.

  19. D Abrahams

    Pleased to see YouGov giving the LDs 10%.

    Of course it could be back to single figures tomorrow so I’m trying not to get too overexcited
    .__________

    No no you have every right to be excited. Word has it the Lib/Dems will be on double figures tomorrow!! .. 9¼ % :)

  20. @ Statgeek

    “Pretty much agree. Unfortunately, entire sections of British society did and still do thrive on such things. There’s always someone else to blame for one’s own shortcomings.”

    I think people do that because it’s easy (I admit that I do that myself on occassion). It means that you get to ignore your own faults and your own mistakes and avoid analysis of where you’ve gone wrong. That can be difficult. It’s far more easy to blame someone else.

    Of course we have classism here too (just not as extreme or ingrained in the population).

  21. @ Old Nat

    “And thus you carelessly toss aside the pretend differences within the British political class! Have you no shame?

    How could Cameron, Clegg and Miliband survive if they didn’t pretend to represent bits of other social classes – despite them all coming from the same one?

    Next you’ll be trying to sell us the idea that either of the main US parties wants to restrict rampant capitalism!”

    Well define “rampant capitalism” for me please because I don’t know what it means. I mean these days, I hear a lot of crazy crap from a lot of crazy people who all seem to get on tv these days.

    With regards to Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband coming from the same social class, I think most of your Prime Ministers all seem to have the same exact background. They’re all Oxford educated, often attending the same schools within Oxford. Does anyone ever get tired of that and want something new?

  22. @ Robbiealive

    “Kinda strange how kinda often you kinda use the word kinda, kinda. Would be kinder, kinda, if you used kinda, kinda less kinda often, kinda.”

    You have a problem with the term “kinda”? Well now I’ve heard it all.

    @ Old Nat

    “that English is now the dominant world language is largely down to the dominance of the USA in the world in the second half of the 20th century.

    While I don’t see US economic and military dominance lasting for too many years, the conquest of the world by their variant of English is likely to remain.”

    I thought British English was the most dominant form of English worldwide. Or some form of it. Reminds me of the time my sister turned in her college term paper and for some reason consistently used British spellings throughout the paper. Her academic advisor asked her if she was from Canada. And then this lady, exasperated, pointed out the spellings and grammar said “well it’s all wrong but it’s also all right at the same time!”

  23. @All

    Oh, but I’m goooooood…

    Me (January 30th, 2012) “…The Economist recently spoke of “expressive voting” – that people vote not to achieve something, but to make a statement about themselves. If it’s true, then Cameron’s boost is due to the fact that he’s seen by the Conservative faithful as one of them (this is why enconia on his behalf from IDS. Hannan and Hague genuinely matter) and the veto failure will be seen as further proof of Perfidious Europa and not (say) a British diplomatic cluster**ck…”

    Toby Young (January 30th, 2012) “…One final point. If exercising the veto didn’t advance the Eurosceptic cause, why did I and other Eurosceptics celebrate it at the time? Because it was an expression of the British people’s opposition to the federalist agenda of German and France….”

    Regards, Martyn

  24. @ Old Nat

    As to the English way of doing things – that is up to you. Why do you want Scots, Welsh and Irish MPs voting on such matters?
    ———————————-
    Because we’re cool; well the ones which actually vote are. ;-)

  25. @ Oldnat
    1. “Why would you want to insist that SoCalLiberal uses your particular variation of the English language?” Err? I didn’t insist on anything of the sort.
    2. “That English is now the dominant world language is largely down to the dominance of the USA in the world in the second half of the 20th century.”
    We all know that! [By the way Do You Agree or Disagree that “down to” is a horribly ugly alternative to ’caused by`].
    3. While I don’t see US economic and military dominance lasting for too many years, the conquest of the world by their variant of English is likely to remain.”
    Here we [finally] reach the speculative & therefore slightly more interesting part of your post.
    In the western world the dominant language of international relations has invariably been that of the hegemonic power, for example Spanish in the 16th & early 17th centuries, French thereafter, English more latterly.
    However, the relationship is not v. exact. French was still dominant, long after France had been eclipsed as the greatest power, & somehow German never quite made it, except briefly in E. Europe; & Russian was always a hated imposition outside Russia.
    I think English, as the “power” language, will outlast the US hegemony, & its current global pervasiveness will prolong its period of use. But it’s possible that the coming Asian hegemony, if that’s what it is, will have have a greater effect on global language use than you contend.

  26. @SoCalLiberal

    You said“…With regards to Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband coming from the same social class, I think most of your Prime Ministers all seem to have the same exact background. They’re all Oxford educated, often attending the same schools within Oxford. Does anyone ever get tired of that and want something new?…”

    Cough cough Sir John Major cough cough… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  27. @ Martyn

    He’s the exception to the rule though. Oh and Callaghan.

    I worry that if people in leadership all went to the same school, their thinking is likely to become inward and stagnated. Everyone comes up with the same sorts of ideas and loses track of outsiders. Worst of all, you kinda have college admissions officers (or grad school admissions officers) ultimately responsible for deciding who the next leaders will be.

    That’s actually my worry about the SCOTUS right now. They all went to Harvard and Yale. Their clerks all went to Harvard and Yale. It makes me worry that they’re isolated from the rest of society and they’re becoming more inward looking and close minded as a result.

  28. @ Amber Star

    “Because we’re cool; well the ones which actually vote are.”

    Yes. Scots do it better (I swear I should get a t-shirt made with this slogan on it).

  29. @SoCalLib

    Fair point

    Regards, Martyn

  30. The speech was a lot more about Ed Miliband than it was about Scotland.
    ——————————————
    LOL :-)

    Wordle some of Alex Salmond’s speeches! The only words he uses are: I, me , my & – of course – Scotland. He shoe-horns the words Scotland & Scottish into every other sentence, whether they are needed or not. It makes everybody who is not obsessed with Scotland go :roll: when they hear him.

  31. I think it’s worth emphasising that Labour’s poll figures dropped sharply when it’s leadership took the advice of their detractors, and tried to play to the right flank. Note that this didn’t appease said detractors, didn’t gain them votes, and the resulting drop in the polls only provided an opening for fresh personal attacks on the leadership.

    The lesson in all of this, for Ed Miliband and co. (incidentally, why does Chris Lane always capitalise his name? What is this supposed to communicate?), is don’t try to appease them, they’ll never be satisfied with him.

    This is how it works: throughout most of 2011 Labour were leading in the polls, often by substantial margins. This was largely ignored, and certainly didn’t lead to any questions about the future of the Government, or David Cameron, personally. To the extent that polls even came up, attention was focussed on alternative measurements that were more favourable to the Government, such as Miliband’s poor personal ratings- not hugely surprising given that he’s enraging two opposing parties and leads a party with significant idealogical divisions, with a very hostile press.

    Then, whenever Labour dips below in the polls after the Government’s veto bounce, immediately the vultures begin to circle, calling into question Miliband’s ability as leader and his political future. The Christmas/New Year period brings further hostile press coverage including some very mischievous reporting in the Guardian hyping up any New Year debate or policy suggestion within the party as an attack on the leadership. In order to sure up his position Miliband takes his detractors advice and truws to restore his economic “credibility” by tacking slightly more conservative. This alienates his supporters and confuses floating voters, leading to a further drop in the polls. His former detractors certainly don’t reward him for heeding their advice, and use the resulting drop in the polls to confirm his uselessness and intensify calls for his head.

    What Miliband needs to do is return to a strategy that was largely successful through the last year, giving him poll leads which would result in a majority at a general election, clarify his fiscal policy, clearly differentiating Labour from the Government position, and develop some of the interesting ideas coming through about economic justice. In this way he could win back some of those who’ve been scared off by his recent positioning and eat away at the Government’s support by exposing it’s weaknesses which will see it ever more exposed in the coming months. As for his detractors, they’ve proved themselves to be impossible to please, and thus best ignored.

  32. Another factor that will affect the stability of the Government. is the dire projected result for Lib Dems on the new boundaries. Plugging most polling companies’ figures into Electoral Calculus gives the entirety of their leadership losing their seats at the next election. I’ve said this before, but I cannot see them acceding to this. I know they’re appealing the proposed boundaries in several areas. If this doesn’t go their way I don’t see what incentive they have to hang on much longer.

  33. POLL ALERT

    Ipsos MORI/The Times

    ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’

    Yes 39% (+1)
    No 50% (-10)
    DK 11% (+5)

    – “… the gap between pro and anti-independence Scots has narrowed from 19 points in early December to 11 points now.

    Overall, 67 per cent of those questioned said they had definitely made up their minds on how they will vote, while 33 per cent said they might yet change their mind.
    But when these figures are broken down into pro and anti-independence voters, the results are dramatically different.
    Some 82 per cent of pro-Union voters say they will definitely vote “no” while 18 per cent say they may yet change their mind. But only 69 per cent of “yes” voters say they will definitely vote that way, while 31 per cent say they could yet change their mind.

    Angus Robertson, the SNP’s independence campaign director, commenting on the poll, described the findings as “excellent” and said it confirmed that the momentum was with the independence case. “The common feature of every survey in recent weeks is rising support for independence, and falling opposition,” he added. “In the four months leading up to the 2011 Holyrood election, the SNP came from behind and achieved a swing of nearly 15 per cent from Labour to win.
    “Now, two-and-a-half years out from the referendum, a swing of less than 6 per cent would see independence move ahead,” said Mr Robertson.”

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3303891.ece#comments

  34. Hannah

    If the Lib Dems poll at 8-10% at the next GE they will be obliterated no matter which boundaries they fight on. All these projections are based on the assumption the lib dems cannot spread their influence when normal boundaries changes occur. It’s pretty clear once a seat is considered “winnable” for a lib dem candidate they do poll a lot better. I suspect they will manage to retain seats better than projections that consider each constituency as an isolated entity would show.

    That said, if they are polling in single figures they will be obliterated at the next election and the number of “winnable” seats will be very low indeed.

    Below 15% the chance of a hung parliament in which the lib dems can influence the government is zero on any boundary conditions.

    Bringing down the government over such a point of such transparent self interest (they knew that these boundaries would hurt on paper before the provisional boundaries were produced) is unlikely to move their figure upwards and they would hardly be trusted as a vote for moderation in future as noone would know how long any coalition would last until the libs threw a wobbly.

    Ultimately, what is in the lib dems interest is a set of boundaries most likely to produce a hung parliament for a given lib dem figure. Equalising the boundary sizes does help with this as no longer would labour get a majority with an equal number of votes, instead the lib dems (assuming they poll at a decent level historically for them) would be able to negotiate with both sides and decide which of the negotiated agreements was in the countries interest.

    Although these new boundaries don’t even out the bias completely (some of the bias is perfectly legitimate and shouldn’t be sought to be “corrected”) this correction of boundary sizes should help the lib dems, if not in seats but in the “window of hung parliaments”

    I suspect some self interested lib dems will vote against the boundaries but not in enough numbers to stop the process.

  35. hannah

    In the short term I agree with your analysis. As a dinosaur left-winger I want Ed M to be a socialist and all this talk about pay freezes and welfare reform is upsetting.

    But in the medium to long term I think that I will vote Labour anyway, and I think Ed is positioning himself and his party to pick up voters when they get disillusioned with the economy and the coalition. If.

    Thr truth is, all they have said is they can’t guarantee to undo any cuts or unfreeze pay now when we are years away from knowing what the state of public finances will look like.

    We’ll see about the polls. If the coaltion manage to pull off this attack on the public sector and blame Labour and end up with a majority next time (perhaps through ditching Scotland and cutting the numbers of MPs too) then frankly we get the Government we vote for, the Government we deserve…and the pensions, welfare and public services we deserve too.

  36. Allan Christie
    ‘Libs on 10%?? Must be an out-liner.’

    Perhaps. However I did suggest a couple of days ago that Nick Clegg’s poll improvement, poossibly caused by his statements on tax, may well be reflected in slight LD improvement later in the week, although it has occurreed earlier than I expected. It is clear that NC needs to keep a higher profile, particularly in areas such as tax where he has significant support from the electorate.

  37. NickP
    ‘ then frankly we get the Government we vote for, the Government we deserve…and the pensions, welfare and public services we deserve too.’

    I am sure most posters would agree to some extent, although whether most of us deserved our current financial mire created over the past few years, is perhaps arguable.

  38. Alan
    ‘That said, if they are polling in single figures they will be obliterated at the next election and the number of “winnable” seats will be very low indeed’.

    I think you have an opportunity to make big bucks if that is what you believe about LDs. Bookies indicate 30-50 seats as par. You should get great odds onn obliteration.

    Of course there is also money to be had on Labour being the largest party, or better still having an overall majority.

  39. @Stuart Dickson
    Ipsos MORI/The Times
    ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’
    Yes 39% (+1)
    No 50% (-10)
    DK 11% (+5)
    – “… the gap between pro and anti-independence Scots has narrowed from 19 points in early December to 11 points now.
    ________

    But in December, respondents were asked to ““agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, which is no longer part of the UK”. A very different question in terms of wording.

  40. Amberstar
    ‘Wordle some of Alex Salmond’s speeches! The only words he uses are: I, me , my & – of course – Scotland. He shoe-horns the words Scotland & Scottish into every other sentence, whether they are needed or not. It makes everybody who is not obsessed with Scotland go when they hear him.’

    Perhaps it is dual purpose, not just aimed at Scottish Nationalists but also at the rest of UK, who will (have?) become sick and tired with the whole matter, and will back anything that will bring this matter to the end, and allow us to consider really important economic and social matters affecting UK (whether this includes |Scotland or not).

  41. Phil,

    – “… no longer part of the UK.”

    Huh? How so? Her Maj will still be our head of state, so her kingdom will still be united, under her good self.

    After all, it was a Scottish king – James VI and I – who first united the crowns, long before the Treaty of Union.

  42. In the latest of our psephological seres we analyse the effect of proposed boundary changes on the Midlands. Top stuff for the politio:
    follow the link:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2012/01/east-midlands-boundary-changes-part-1-northamptonshire/

  43. Henry

    I did qualify my statement with “if the lib dems get single figures”. I think most people would agree if they get 8% of the vote in 2015 then electorally things would be pretty severe.

    Do I believe they will stay this low until polling day? Not at all, they’ll take losses (beyond the seats lost in the cut to 600) almost certainly, do I believe they will have 6 MPs in 2015? Not at all.

    Things like raising the tax threshold are pretty popular and if it is raised again before 2015 it’s the sort of policy that lib dems would get credit for.

    It’ll be interesting to see in the debates if the lib dems can create enough separation from the Tories whilst maintaining “we did the right thing together, in the national interest”. I think there is an opportunity there for the lib dems to make it clear that if the next parliament was hung they would consider both alternative agreements before deciding which would be better for the country.

    I think many people on the left are now feeling how many people on the right felt about the lib dems for years, that if push came to shove they would simply prop up a labour government. Even after 2010 many suspected that the libs would try and support labour with an election in 6 months.

    I still believe if the arithmetic was equal the lib dems would tend to favour siding with labour. At least they have shown that they can work maturely with the conservative party (assuming they don’t pull out before 2015) and I believe that they would seek to influence the labour party for the better (in lib dem eyes) if they were to enter a coalition with them. For me that is a good thing, I assume some will hate them for not simply being a party of labour stooges.

    Is a hung parliament possible in 2015? Yes, although unlikely if the lib dems only get 30 seats

  44. Crikey, Oldnat,

    At that rate of progress, independence will have 780% support by the time the vote’s actually held!!

  45. I must agree with @Hannah about the way Lab’s poll numbers are reported. If EdM is so awful, why is Lab polling so high …?

    It is also inescapable that EdM is suffering from having a) supporters of two government parties, not one, opining about him and b) the close nature of his leadership election (for which the Blairites should learn how to be good losers). Having said that, and thank you @Virgilio a few threads ago, if you had offered Lab 20 months after a heavy defeat to be consistently bouncing around 38-41%, they’d have ripped your hand off.

    EdM has a better ear than DC for public opinion re., for e.g., Murdoch last summer and bankers’ bonuses. The latter will run for a while yet and DC and GO are already having serious trouble with it.

    Finally, @SoCal … EdM same background as DC and NC? What does a comprehensive-educated son of refugees from nazism have in common with the public-school scions of inherited wealth? Not much, I’d say.

  46. MARTYN

    Your last post on the previous thread -it puts so much into context & explains the situation well I suspect.

    Thanks.

    Do you have any thoughts as to why Sweden wants ( apparently) to sign an agreement constraining it’s fiscal freedom & conceding oversight of it’s national budgets to a monetary union of which it has no membership ambitions?

    thanks.

  47. The difference between the December and January IpsosMORI is in line with Professor Cialdini’s contention that asking a ‘loaded’ as opposed to a ‘balanced’ question has a dramatic effect on the result – roughly a 9% swing in support for any given proposition when people are asked to ‘agree’ rather than agree/disagree’.

  48. MARTYN

    a follow up :-

    This goes part way to answering my question:-

    “Reinfeldt said that “Europe is now showing a serious will to get its public finances in order.
    “What they are going to do is what Sweden has been doing for the last 10 to 15 years,” Reinfeldt said.
    Sweden has cut its public debt to around 30% of GDP since a banking crisis in the early 90s prompted it to restructure its finances.
    Sweden has recovered rapidly from the recent financial crisis but relies heavily on its exports to Europe so it is keen to support efforts to prevent a serious downturn there.
    Reinfeldt said the latest draft of the fiscal pact met a series of demands from one of the Swedish opposition parties–the Social Democrats–which in turn meant the prime minister’s minority government could now count on that party’s support for joining the pact.”

    WSJ

    What were the changes which Reinfeldt refers to?

    Is the central oversight of national budgets still in the latest draft?

    Thanks again.

  49. Alan

    It appears we are thinking very much along the same lines.

  50. Tark

    Do you think that 38% is good for Labour at this point? I was thinking labour would be 5% to 10% ahead because of austerity, right or wrong, but as things improved and the policy paid dividends the Tories and perhaps both Coalition parties would start clawing back.

    If 38% is good in your eyes, what would be bad for Labour?, 35%?

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