Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%. It’s the first Tory lead from YouGov for the best part of a week, but only serves to underline that the two main parties are still pretty much neck-and-neck.

This has been the position in the polls for about seven weeks now – ever since David Cameron’s “veto” at the European Summit, and probably reinforced or replaced by the turbulent month that Labour have had since then.


121 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 38%, LD 10%”

1 2 3
  1. Polldrums Nouveaux!

    CON 298
    LAB 273
    LIB 6

  2. First!! :)

  3. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Sorry. You are Labour, not SNP. :-(

  4. Libs on 10%??

    Must be an out-liner.

  5. OLDNAT

    Yes second best again. :(

  6. I’m amazed that it’s still pretty much neck and neck.

    I was expecting a big Labour lead after the media frenzy over RBSs bonus over the weekend.

    Maybe people are actually blaming Labour as they perhaps believe that it was all down to them.

    Of course I’m just speculating and could be completely wrong.

  7. How many polls will it takes til he knows that it is time for our ED to go?

    The answer, comrades is blowing up Primrose Hill,, the answer is blowing up the Hill…

  8. After the economy shrinking and the RBS fiasco?The public are having a laugh

  9. I expect a slight Tory slip in the next couple of days when we might see the effect RBS bonus and EU summit debacle.

  10. LEETAY.
    Good Evening to you.

    It surprises me that people are surprised that Ed is behind.

    Apart from Ed’s palpable weaknesses, we should remember that most people are in employment.
    Most voters are not the impoverished and social security recipients.

    Labour needs a leader who reflects the majority.

    As has been said before I think: Only Harold in 1966 and Tony Blair in 1997 has done this for Labour, since Clement Attlee.

  11. If I could just give one bit of guidance in interpreting polls (well, actually two, as the first would be “it’s probably just sample error”), the second would be “almost everything has much less effect on voting intention than you think”.

  12. Not sure I really understand why RBS bonuses should be a Labour vote-winner. If it weren’t for Labour, RBS wouldn’t exist.

  13. Just doesn’t get any better for Labour – not even a temporary upward blip from the negative GDP figures last week.

    This shows that at present (and maybe with the Two Eds) Lab simply can not gain from negative economic news. This is a blow to the many posters on this site who assume that the unremitting bad news over the next few months will naturally lead to a Labour revival. Unless there is an actual recession, I can not see the position improving.

    And of course tied to all this is EM’s chronic approval ratings. With numbers as bad as his, and with them hardening all the time, he will not be able to make any headway with the bad news coming (on economy, NHS, strikes etc). People simply have stopped listening.

    I worry we may even be getting to the point where people will be less likely to support a policy if they know it’s EM who’s suggested it.

  14. leetay

    I’m amazed that it’s still pretty much neck and neck.

    I was expecting a big Labour lead after the media frenzy over RBSs bonus over the weekend.

    Maybe people are actually blaming Labour as they perhaps believe that it was all down to them.

    Of course I’m just speculating and could be completely wrong
    ________________

    The dilemma Labour have is that the mess over the economy and the bankers bonuses including RBS is a legacy of theirs

    They also don’t come out with any credible proposals to deal with the economy and when they do come out with something, it’s usually agreeing with the Tories.

    Then there is Ed and that image!!

  15. ADRIAN B
    `And of course tied to all this is EM’s chronic approval ratings`

    It actually improved last week though AW said this could be due to cross-breaks…He has led on RBS as he did on phone hacking and his ratings did improve after that

  16. @Smukesh

    minus 48 is still pretty bad, though. The stats in this YouGov indicate by large his position has not been bolstered in the public’s mind’s in recent days – his stats are virtually unchanged. 54% think he has no good qualities, only 3% still think he’s good in a crisis. Despite the government coming off pretty bad from this Cameron’s stats are virtually unchanged.

    I take from this poll; nothing much has changed, really.

  17. BOO BOO
    `I take from this poll; nothing much has changed, really`

    You could be right,but I would take one poll with a pinch of salt as AW has suggested

  18. @Smukesh

    I’m not just judging that on this poll…but the Sunday Times poll, too. There’s more polls to come, but with much of the coverage having ended today, I’d suggest this is not going to really change much.

  19. @Smukesh

    @boo boo “minus 48 is still pretty bad, though. The stats in this YouGov indicate by large his position has not been bolstered in the public’s mind’s in recent days – his stats are virtually unchanged”

    “You could be right,but I would take one poll with a pinch of salt as AW has suggested”

    Problem though, is that it is almost every single poll isn’t it.

    Though I stand by waiting to see if he can turn his personals/ leadership rating around by end of 2013 (and force a centrist economic policy through the Unions and far left at this years conference).

  20. Smukesh – why are the public having a laugh? The 13 years of labour legacy is still not being forgotten.

    Fred Goodwin comes to mind. One of the biggest losses in corporate history and then knighted – thats a debacle.

  21. If the Conservative polling was boosted by the Veto that never was, then I would expect there to be some unwind over the next few weeks as news stories make it clear there never was a Veto. On the other hand, if it was a boost for some other reason, then it might stick around. But I don’t think that a statistical tie between the two parties is sustainable polling in the long run…

  22. Smukesh,

    Ed’s ratings are awful.
    And I don’t mean with the wider public – it’s a given that a Labour leader will not be every Tory’s ‘dream PM’ or indeed a LD favourite. We can effectively discard those stats.
    But the utter lack of faith from his own party is truly damning…he cannot possibly convince a centrist voter when around 90% of his own party think he is indecisive, weak, not a natural leader and lacking in charisma………your faith is admirable……
    Having said all that the party faithful remain strong, so it may not matter after all :-)

  23. 41 Tory MPs defied John Major over the Maastricht treaty in 1993.

    In 2011 (October) 79 Tory MPs voted for a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU. Two tellers indicated they supported the motion.
    Another two Tories voted yes and no, the traditional way of registering an abstention. A further 12 did not vote.

    “In all, about half of all Conservatives outside the “payroll vote” of ministers and their aides scorned Mr Cameron’s authority. Rebel leaders warned that the Prime Minister faced a protracted “war” with his own party over the European issue.”

    This reflects the trajectory of the Conservative party (49 of the rebels were 2010 intake), ie pressure at constituency level to select eurosceptic candidates.

    Fortunately for Cameron there are no major EU votes on the horizon atm, but something to think about for the future (and for any future Conservative government).

  24. KNIGHT12
    `Fred Goodwin comes to mind. One of the biggest losses in corporate history and then knighted – thats a debacle.`

    I think he was knighted in 2004…RBS has big profits in those years,the losses came later circa 2008.

    Labour`s 13 years in power din`t matter as much when they were polling 44`s last year…When the economic news is bad,it isn`t too perverse to expect a Tory dip or a Labour rise is it?
    `

  25. Jayblanc

    “If the Conservative polling was boosted by the Veto that never was, then I would expect there to be some unwind over the next few weeks as news stories make it clear there never was a Veto”

    But the ‘meejah’ never made clear *at the time nor since* that this was a obviously theatrical “summit walk out”. That- at the end of the day once everything played itself out- was going to be unmasked as pure gesture politics deployed for domestic consumption in order to save himself from the leadership challenge that had been threatened in the days leading up to the summit.

    Why on earth would they point those salient facts out now ?!

  26. HOODED MAN

    As to Ed, a textual analysis of his speech in Glasgow today revealed that he used the words Scotland or Scotland’s 23 times in the speech.

    He used the words I, me, my 51 times.

    The speech was a lot more about Ed Miliband than it was about Scotland.

    I doubt that he has sensible judgement, or sensible advisers.

  27. I don`t think it is fair to criticise someone(Ed) when they have started to do better with some ratings improvement last week.
    Rather than getting stuck on the same record,it is better to wait for a few weeks to see if the new approach pays some dividends or not

  28. It would certainly be a surprise if the news of the past few days didn’t put Labour back in front, at least by a point or two. One poll is obviously too little evidence to judge (perhaps without the “news” this sample would have yielded a 5 point Tory lead, we’ll never know). The next few days will be interesting though.

    @Jayblanc,

    I’m not sure it’s a question of “unwinding” the veto boost. The public are much more “goldfish-like” than that. The main effect of the veto boost was to make Cameron look a bit more prime ministerial, and to cause some whispering in the Labour Party ranks (thereby providing the opposite effect for Miliband). Even if the actual issue that provoked it turns out to be no more than a puff of wind, it may be the respective effects on the leaders’ images that remain.

    New developments that make the government look bad over Europe might have the opposite effect, but I don’t necessarily think it will be “unwind”. I know it is a small and rather pedantic point, but I think most of the public take their politics in small daily snapshots.

  29. SMUKESH

    Seems perfectly fair to me to criticise Ed when he is billed to come up to Scotland to present “the positive case for the Union”, and then presents “the positive case for himself”.

  30. @JayBlanc

    You said “…If the Conservative polling was boosted by the Veto that never was, then I would expect there to be some unwind over the next few weeks as news stories make it clear there never was a Veto….”

    I suspect it may not unwind. The Economist recently spoke of “expressive voting” that people vote not to achieve something, but to make a statement about themselves. If it’s true, then Cameron’s boost is due to the fact that he’s seen by the Conservative faithful as one of them (this is why enconia on his behalf from IDS. Hannan and Hague genuinely matter) and the veto failure will be seen as further proof of Perfidious Europa and not (say) a British diplomatic cluster**ck. This may also explain Romney’s inability to win GOP hearts despite the fact he has the best chance of beating Obama, and Miliband’s remaining in post.

    Regards, Martyn

    (Incidentally, I answered your previous point on the previous board)

  31. OLDNAT
    `Seems perfectly fair to me to criticise Ed when he is billed to come up to Scotland to present “the positive case for the Union”, and then presents “the positive case for himself”`

    Ofcourse…I listened to a part of the speech,din`t come across to me that way…However you are better placed to make a judgement and I wonder whether the press coverage is mirroring your judgement.

    Atleast he did better than having a row with Salmond and boosting support for independence

  32. I haven’t quite come to a view on the RBS bonuses.
    It could be that they should take lower figures given this is effectively a state bank, and more in the spirit of public service,
    but I’d be very careful.

    Is Ed Miliband seriously suggesting that the Government should set pay, in highly competitive situtations, in international firms where huge amounts of money are involved,
    or that these firms should be micro-managed by
    dull Treasury Civil Servants, Human Resources, and pernicious Eqality officers?
    Get real.

    Yes we do need a more balanced economy – something the previous government failed to address – but don’t undermine the City where we are world class.

    And why no outrage against football salaries
    or Z list celebs who make millions out of vandalising the English language on chat shows and probably came from sink schools.

  33. Smukesh,

    Even a dead cat will bounce……

    …….although I don’t remember Ed falling from a great height…..

    Old Nat,

    I suspect whatever he said would have been torn apart. Such is life when you’re down on your uppers…… to give him his due, he speaks honestly and with some integrity. The problem is no-one wants to listen. And not because it’s Labour. It seems it’s because it’s him….

  34. @JJB,

    I rather think the problem is that we’ve recently discovered that the City is very much less than world class. Unless by that description you mean “just as bad as the rest of the world’s financial institutions”.

  35. I know I know.

    Sub samples mean nothing.

    However tonight’s Yougov SNP 38, Lab 33, Tory 20 and the Libs 5 feels about right.

    Also tomorrow’s MORI showing independence at 40 compared to naysayers 50 also feels about right – for now.

    For both the UK election and the referendum the truth is out there but it is all to play for!

    For me the key is leadership and that right now the SNP has it and quite clearly the NO side does not.

  36. Ed Miliband is suggesting employee representation at board level – on remuneration committees (like in Germany).

  37. HOODED MAN

    I didn’t do the textual analysis, but I do understand how the messages, that are revealed by such analysis, resonate.

    If Ed wants to retain the current UK union, then his message needs to persuade all the nations of the UK that the union benefits them. The “positive case” that has been regularly asked for – but never delivered.

  38. @SMUKESH

    “Labour`s 13 years in power din`t matter as much when they were polling 44`s last year…When the economic news is bad,it isn`t too perverse to expect a Tory dip or a Labour rise is it?”

    Perhaps some find it more than a little perverse that anyone would still vote Labour after the 2007-2010 debacle. However, it’s all a little partisan.

  39. @OldNat,

    Some might say that the positive case is lived and breathed by Britons every day. You would disagree of course, as anything “British” is anathema to you.

    Every twitch of your fingers yearns to spell out just how awful you think the British state, and more specifically the English way of doing things, has become.

    Maybe some people just look around and think “Well, you know, it’s actually a pretty good country, the good old United Kingdom”.

  40. JOE JAMES B
    `Is Ed Miliband seriously suggesting that the Government should set pay, in highly competitive situtations, in international firms where huge amounts of money are involved,

    It is also Cameron`s position which he assumed inorder not to let Milliband ahead in his responsible capitalism agenda… in a speech which he made only the week before
    So perhaps one could forgive the plebs who thought that he actually meant it

  41. Based on the numbers, we’re not getting Ed’s RBS attacks or his Scottish visit quite yet. Good sample size tonight (1977 instead of the 1720s average). Scottish crossbreaks sample of 235 instead of 160s average.

    Quick question for all the stat-interested folk. Any particular graphs that would interest? Might add em in, if it doesn’t involve too much updating as new polls come in.

  42. @Billy Bob

    You said “…Fortunately for Cameron there are no major EU votes on the horizon atm…”

    If only. If memory serves (it may not), the one-line treaty amendment from 2010/11 designed to allow the EFSF (or its predecessor, I forget which, and I’m not looking it up: it’s late) to exist is due to be ratified by the UK in a few month’s time. Oh joy.

    Regards, Martyn

  43. Pleased to see YouGov giving the LDs 10%. This closes the gap between YG and the other pollsters and puts the LDs 3% above their lowest ever YouGov rating. There are now nine pollsters who have the Lib Dems in the range 10-16%. Just one (Opinium) still has them in single figures (9%).

    Of course it could be back to single figures tomorrow so I’m trying not to get too overexcited!

  44. @Statgeek

    No thank you, but thank you for asking.

    Regards, Martyn

  45. Neil A

    “Maybe some people just look around and think “Well, you know, it’s actually a pretty good country, the good old United Kingdom”

    Of course, some do. There are always those who support the status quo simply because it is the status quo. In political terms, they are described as conservatives. South of the border, that term is capitalised. Up here, the term includes Labour.

    However, the IPPR survey suggests that that group has significantly reduced in England – just as it long departed in Scotland.

    I quite understand that “Brits” prefer to ignore changes surrounding them, but it isn’t a terribly clever political stance.

    As to the English way of doing things – that is up to you. Why do you want Scots, Welsh and Irish MPs voting on such matters?

  46. @OLDNAT

    “Of course, some do. There are always those who support the status quo simply because it is the status quo. In political terms, they are described as conservatives.”

    You suggest that other parties (SNP?) would forever be in a state of change. Indepedence, then union, then back and forth, to avoid the status quo? :)

    If a thing is good, there’s no point in changing it. I worry that independence is an extreme excuse for not dealing with the more detestable political classes of the UK. We could jump from one union of relative control, to one of even less control (EU).

    IMHO the positive case hasn’t been made for independence. Many positive cases have been made for devomax, or political reform, but not independence.

  47. @Martyn

    Goody.

    @Neil A, Old Nat

    I notice Mitchell borrows from Freud, who in turn borrowed from Ernest Crawley:

    “… the phenomenon [a narcissism of minor differences] that it is precisely communities with adjoining territories, and related to each other in other ways as well, who are engaged in constant feuds and ridiculing each other.”

  48. @ D Abrahams

    The problem for the Lib Dems and Labour is that the Tories will be much better funded to fight seats.

    The polls are therefore pretty meaningless this far from the GE. The LD’s and Labour will need to get fund raising, so they have a chance of competing. I have noticed where I live that the local Focus teams have become less active, perhaps saving their money to spend nearer to the local and general elections. The Tories however continue to issue a newsletter every few months.

    In regard to the polls, I notice that Cameron has a few negative headlines tomorrow about giving up his veto in Europe. There have also been some briefing from No.10 against Eurosceptics including IDS and some briefing that Cameron will be looking to help his LD colleagues. Perhaps Cameron realises just how much he needs the LD MP’s whenever issues about Europe come up !

  49. Given that the ruling party usually recovers from mid-term to the election – I think this even happened in 1997! -these figures must surely be a worry for Labour.

  50. STATGEEK

    You missed the lower case.

1 2 3