Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, Others 12%. A three point Labour lead, but not out of line with the average Labour lead of five points or so that we’ve seen of late. Note that the fieldwork of YouGov’s daily polls goes from roughly 5pm each day to around about 3pm the next day, so the overwhelming majority of the fieldwork for this poll was done before George Osborne’s autumn statement – if you are looking for any impact in the polls it’s tomorrow’s poll and those in the days following you’ll need to look at.


134 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 38, LAB 41, LD 9”

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  1. Tonight’s details:

    Con 38
    Lab 41
    Lib Dem 9
    UKIP 5
    SNP / PCY 3
    Green 2
    BNP 1
    Respect 0
    Other 1

    Serves me right for saying that I could see the Conservatives going down to 33-34%.

    Approval 30 – 56 = -26

    Non-voters 24%

    Tables are here:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/iru8b9a52r/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-291111.pdf

  2. ROGER MEXICO. Good Evening from the second poster on here.

    The Head of the OBR is on Radio 4. Grim news,

    But Tories doing well.

  3. What’s happened to the others, only 12% is this ukipers returning to the fold, having forgotten about DC’s referendum flip flop. I don’t see it but…….

  4. Yes, the Tories are doing well, and UKIP have dropped back a bit. We’ll see tomorrow, but I think a good proportion of the population realise that the whole world is in an economic mess, and the Tories are the best we’ve got to try to sort it out. Therefore their vote is resilient even in these bad times.

  5. The Conservatives have had a bounce from all the pre-Autumn Statement ‘good news’ being released ahead of the actual day.

    Spending on infra-structure, re-instatement of the future jobs fund (under another name) & the deferral of the rise in fuel duty. All released over the weekend.

    Come the day: Borrowing up £158Bn, growth down, unemployment +100,000 (at least) & austerity to infinity & beyond….

    Give it time to sink in; the coming week should see a significant bounce for Labour unless we get creamed because of reaction to the strike.
    8-)

  6. Posted before I saw the complete figures, ukip on 5 a bit lower than lately but maybe just a blip. But now we are all interested in ukip progress perhaps AW could be persuaded to include their number in his reports

  7. This is a nice close poll to test Autumn Statement effect against.

  8. I’m noticing a trend. Every time Labour supporters on UKPR proclaim that Conservative voting share decreases, it promptly jumps 3 or 4% the following day. Therefore, if we all shut up, we may win the next election.

    :P

  9. ComRes gave a 38% in mid-September, ICM gives the occassional 37%, but for the time being YouGov is at the high end of Con VI. All the other polling companies seem to have Tories in the low thirties.

    From the ComRes ITN index tonight (feildwork earlier in the week): “… most people believe the Government has lost control of the UK economy, and almost half the public say they are ‘not confident’ that George Osborne is making the right decisions for the UK economy”.

    h
    ttp://www.comres.co.uk/poll/573/itv-news-index-29-november-2011.htm

  10. Not sure how GO’s stuff will impact polling. A bit of this and a bit of that for either side then all back to whatever “normal” has become.

    The thing that struck me today was the adherence to the benefits stabiliser. I’m sure politically it seems like/is the clever/right thing to do, but I still never thought I’d see the day when a Tory chancellor would, in circumstances such as this, wave through an inflation-lock which gives a 5.2% rise to those on benefits, whilst pinning public sector wage inflation at 1%, meanwhile private sector wages (which, love it or hate it, helps to fund such changes) increase on average by around 2% per annum.
    If it’s a matter of honour, it’s an admirable position to defend. But there are others that have not been defended.
    If it’s a matter of votes, there aren’t any to be gained from those on benefits.
    GO, as is his wont, rarely squanders any political capital, so he must see something long-term that will come from p***ing off public and private sector workers in equal (or unequal) measures to preserve the benefit CPI link?

  11. No real change in the Issues trackers except that inevitably Pensions has jumped up in “important issues facing the country at this time” from 23% to 32%. In “the most important issues facing you and your family” it only goes up two points, but that’s from 36% to 38%, second only to the economy.

    All other changes are MoE stuff.

  12. @ Colin

    This is a nice close poll to test Autumn Statement effect against.
    ————————
    Maybe not, we have the strike tomorrow.
    8-)

  13. @Top Hat,

    Please do try that method. I look forwards to all Labour supporters not speaking: then we’d see at last whether it is true that governments win/lose elections and oppositions hardly matter.

  14. @ Old Nat (from the last thread)

    “I agree with you about the *definition” of a profession. That was the point I was trying to make in my post.

    1968 was when the professional body governing Scottish teachers was set up, and unqualified teachers could no longer be employed in Scottish schools.

    The sacking of teachers was a different matter, since it was governed by archaic 19th century legislation. That wasn;t brought up to date until devolution allowed Scotland the legislative time to deal with many matters that had not been dealt with by Westminster.”

    Wait a minute, let me get this straight. In 1968, the UK government, which was run by Labour, set up a separate system in Scotland requiring teachers to be professionally qualified. Yet it did not then evaluate the current teachers in Scottish schools to see if they met this new criteria?

    That seems odd. Then again, using that kind of process might have helped Michelle Rhee.

  15. Maybe a pro-Labour newspaper (is there one still in existence anywhere??) will report tonight’s poll as follows: –
    “Labour receive two point bounce and increase lead by 1% as public give their first verdict on Autumn Statement”.

    It’s all getting very silly, isn’t it? Even a dedicated old politico like me is starting to feel all polled out at the moment and, heresy of heresies, slowly coming to the view that maybe, just maybe, it’s possible to have too many opinion polls!

    I’m reminded of the Bard (for life read opinion polling!):-

    “Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
    That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
    And then is heard no more. It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing.”

    Quite, William, quite!

  16. TOP HAT.
    You are very young I think. I am 56. We do not know the name of the next Labour PM.

    Possibly CHUKKA?

    1983/ 1987/ 1992: GE’s exemplify how Tories out perform mid term polls anyway.
    1964 also was like that.

    Labour needs a policy and a philosophy and a likeable leadership team, that looks and sounds normal and is attractive.

  17. Crossbat

    “Maybe a pro-Labour newspaper (is there one still in existence anywhere??) will report tonight’s poll as follows: –
    “Labour receive two point bounce and increase lead by 1% as public give their first verdict on Autumn Statement”.

    You beat me to it- having read the algorithm from Chrislane1945 that automatically generates a ‘tories doing well’ post every single time a poll is released.

  18. Enjoying my Newsnight tonight in a way that most Tories will probably be as well (but for opposite reasons) but that- seriously- NO lib dem could possibly be.

  19. Paul Mason just made the point:

    are the Lib Dems signed up to the 2015-2017 biggest ever austerity programme…..which is after the next election !!

    Big question: is Jeremy going to put this to Danny who he is now about to interview…??

    And will they phone up Tim or Simon for comment ??

  20. @ Scotswaehae (from the last thread)

    “Thanks, any support is appreciated even if you can´t sign the consultation! To be honest it´s a poorly-worded poll, and doesn´t reflect the true nature of the law we are trying to pass, but it is the most recent poll I could find on Scottish opinion with regards to SSM.

    The law mainly wants to instate same-sex marriage, as opposed to civil partnerships, which are a great step in the right direction for equality, but fall short. The bill mainly wants to give couples the right to call themselves married, call one another husband or wife (which for me is the main issue). This will eliminate the possibility of people misconstruing Civil partnerships as unequal to a marriage, and will eliminate the legal argument to support any difference between them (such as things like Military married accomodation being seen as only for people who are married, not partnered etc). There are other important aspects to, as it will allow gay couples to marry anywhere that straight people can (including churches, castles or gardens etc). However, the law clearly states that no church or faith group who do not want to participate in marriage equality do not have to conduct them on their premises, neither will they be forced to perform them.

    Basically churches have the right to refuse gay marriages, but it will give couples like us the right to call ourselves married and be equal in almost all respects to heterosexual couples.

    Hope that clears things up!”

    Don’t worry about me, I am well familiar with this fight and not confused at all. I have a feeling that you will win this one. Alex Salmond has earned my wholehearted respect and admiration for making an “It Gets Better” video (as had David Cameron) and I have a feeling that this will be enacted (it will take a lot longer in England).

    I have felt that a lot of these religious exemption laws are gratuitous and basically political responses to drummed up propoganda by bigoted radical right wingers. But that’s only applicable in the American context. In the context of the UK where you have an official state sanctioned church and even in Scotland where there is some dispute over whether there’s an official state religion, these types of provisions have some merit.

    You are right about civil unions. Think about segregated public schools. It’s a step forward from a situation where African American children were not allowed to attend public school and receive an education. But segregated schools were inherently unequal.

  21. @Chrislane1945;

    -shrugs- I think that an attractive leadership is important, but not necessary. Attlee was not exactly known for his grasp of PR skills. More important, I think, is philosophy, and also the extent to which the left-wing vote is split. The other is caution. I think the Labour Party’s problem is it can’t pace itself, and tends to have over-done all the issues by the time it comes to elections.

  22. I’m waiting for Paxman to say: “You’re the man who walks behind the man who walks behind the horse with a bucket… with a bucket – aren’t you?”

  23. Rob

    The was a lot of talk about Vincent not being on the front bench, I think he was among the backbenchers off to one side, probably just late but the media do like a splits story, but I wonder how happy he is?

  24. A slightly desperate Newsnight, first a cartoon ( this is funny?) then the increasingly shrill bloke, Paul…?…………I think it is just beginning to dawn on them that GO has that rarest of political assets, luck. Just when Labour had him moving into their crosshairs along comes the EZ crisis ,the strike tomorrow, Ed Balls, Ed M, and general support from business for today’s announcement.
    Lucky George, unlucky opposition.

  25. Maybe a pro-Labour newspaper (is there one still in existence anywhere??) will report tonight’s poll as follows: –
    “Labour receive two point bounce and increase lead by 1% as public give their first verdict on Autumn Statement”.

    We’ve still got the Daily Mirror and there’s always the possibility of The Guardian acknowledging its mistake in backing the Lib Dems and coming back on side.

  26. @Ken

    Shock headline; “Business supports Tory Chancellor”.

    Whatever next? “Pope believes in marriage”, perhaps! lol

  27. @hooded man

    There’s a pretty simple reason *why* they maintained the inflation indexing of out of work benefits. Because they *wouldn’t* be automatic stabilisers if they had a real terms cut. It is very likely that the estimates of enacting such a cut would have been harsh recession. GO realised that pandering to the ‘hang all the cheating benefit scum’ right wing was not worth the economic collapse of the country.

    But I was surprised that GO did it without deflecting blame onto his partners as the ones ‘forcing’ him to do so. (But perhaps that will come in time…) Or that he hasn’t tried to explain why he has maintained the link in economic terms… But then that would introduce unwanted nuances to the narrative that had been built up around ‘The poor need to share some of the pain too’, and return Keynesian economics from it’s political exile.

  28. CROSSBAT11………….How about the alternative headline, involving strikes, unions, Labour, that Anthony, rightly, wouldn’t approve of me mentioning. :-)

  29. TOP HAT.

    Attllee the greatest of them all (hence my name here) was PM before the TV age.

    Labour has to occupy the centre and reach out to moderate right and moderate left opinion in my view.

    This was done after July 1994… Then ‘we’ won three times. Then ‘we’ kicked him out. And cheer when the leader, with a smile, declares that he is not him.

    The same happened when Foot was chosen against Healey. S*d them Denis said.

  30. All this is within MOE pretty much.
    whether it’s 1 or 2 points or 9

    The figures haven’t moved much since May when Labour lagged in votes cast by 1% in the council elections – a point ignored by opposition supporters on these threads.

    But it’s also possible the Tories might struggle to motivate their vote in the way they still could in May, or lag further behind next year.

    I think the public do realise that Balls was a principle architect of the current catastrophe – although Labour under the Brownites did at least have the sense not to get us into the Euro, which the Islington tendency would have done.

  31. @Rob Sheffield

    “Paul Mason just made the point:

    are the Lib Dems signed up to the 2015-2017 biggest ever austerity programme…..which is after the next election !!

    Big question: is Jeremy going to put this to Danny who he is now about to interview…??

    And will they phone up Tim or Simon for comment ??”
    ______________

    My reaction while watching Newsnight was the same as yours, before seeing your comment. The answer is: yes the question was put, and Danny Alexander indeed answered yes (whilst looking distinctly uncomfortable).

    Which is indeed very interesting. If the continuation of the current coalition requires the LDs to commit to a Conservative austerity programme lasting well beyond this parliament, even with 3 1/2 years to go, then they’re going to get dragged further and further down that road as the parliament progresses, and what was once long term plans become medium to short term plans. All of which is hardly consistent with the fanciful idea that they can then stand aside in late 2014 or 2015 and claim equidistance prior to the GE, as if the alliance with the right had never happened.

  32. Thank you Lionel Barber editor of the FT! Who on newsnight just identified the tribulation over this new extended austerity programme (biggest in history) running past the next GE and on to 2017.

    The Lib Dems fracture and an election earlier than 2015 became a little more possible today.

    Expect problems within Lib Dems when they all wake up to the fact that Danny and Nick have just signed them up to a election manifesto that includes massive spending cuts and supporting only the Tories after the election.

    Suicidal- there will HAVE to be clarification on this- the Lib Dems won’t hang together if what Danny said tonight stands.

  33. @Joe James B

    “The figures haven’t moved much since May when Labour lagged in votes cast by 1% in the council elections – a point ignored by opposition supporters on these threads.”

    Were those the elections where Labour gained 800 council seats and, according to the BBC, had a 1% lead in the popular vote?

  34. Labour did well in the May local elections considering it was only 1 year in – but according to Thrasher and Rawlings, who use more seats, the issued a projection of C 38%, Lab 37% LD 17%.

    The BBC figures do not always show lower Tory figures, but they seem to be under some pressure to issue it early in the night.

  35. Chris, give it a rest about Blair. He was defenestrated for the reason that every erstwhile successful leader is defenestrated. Because he had become an electoral liability. In his case because of his utter stupidity over Iraq.

    He won in 05 only after promising to step down. The Lab VI bounced by 1/3rd when he left. Stop this beatification of a man who was the architect of his own downfall.

  36. Jayblanc,

    “It is very likely that the estimates of enacting such a cut would have been harsh recession”

    Have you any evidence of that?

    The principle of automatic stabilisers is of course understood, but I don’t think the future of our economy is wholly contingent on the exact CPI rise in benefits, determined by an individual peak inflationary month. …..

    Interested what your reaction would have been if the inflation rise had been capped at 4% in order to give public sector workers a 2% pay rise? (I don’t know the precise equivalence of the numbers but I’m sure you get my drift). The impact to the economy would have been little different but those in work might feel somewhat better…..?

  37. @LeftyLampton

    “Chris, give it a rest about Blair. He was defenestrated for the reason that every erstwhile successful leader is defenestrated. Because he had become an electoral liability. In his case because of his utter stupidity over Iraq.
    He won in 05 only after promising to step down. The Lab VI bounced by 1/3rd when he left. Stop this beatification of a man who was the architect of his own downfall.”

    Amen.

  38. To all:

    I’ve been fiddling with a chart, tracking the gov’s approcal ratings, and want some input as to reasoning for a blip. The numbers are averaged by calendar month, so as to show a gradual slope in whichever direction. Here’s the blip:

    March 11 – Minus 25.7 (bottom of a slope)
    April 11 – Minus 24.1 (approval rising again)
    May 11 – Minus 20.9 (the peak of the blip)
    June 11 – Minus 24.6 (returning to decline)

    I wanted to throw in a few timelines to highlight reasons for anything noticeable. There’s a tiny rise just before party conference in October (the blip is in September), but a slight drop in the month of the conference itself.

    Possible reasons for the May ’11 blip? Listed in order of most likely, in my opinion:

    – Summer (politicians on holiday) etc.
    – Death of Bin Laden
    – Libyan intervention
    – backlash from Labour defeat in Scottish elections (unlikely, but I’m struggling to explain the blip)

    What of the mini-blip in September? Any ideas, or is probably a case of less bad news that month?

    h ttp://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/690/approve.png

  39. I heard an interview with Balls on the telly. How can he think that you can spend your way out of debt? If this wasn’t such a polite site I might say more. :-)

  40. @JOE JAMES B

    If Ed Balls were not in the current Labour cabinet (Harman too), the opposition would be far more electable in the eyes of many voters. Alan Johnson seems to be one of the few pre-2010 front benchers who is generally liked outwith the Labour faithful. He would have been a less toxic shadow chancellor I believe.

  41. Wikipedia gives the percentages for the local elections on May 5th in England and N Ireland as:

    Con 35%, Lab 37%, LD 15%.

    On the same night a by election in Liecester South saw a swing to Labour of +12.2%, and swings against LD and Con at -4.4% and -6.3% respectivrely.

  42. @Hooded Man

    Well… What do you think *would* happen to high street retail should those on out of work benefits, during a period of high unemployment, all suddenly have to restrict their spending even more?

    Dropping the automatic stabiliser down below inflation would certainly result in a direct *and immediate* drop in growth because of retail pressure. This is not speculation, this is how the automatic stabilisers work.

  43. Surely, now that we are being conditioned into a belt tightening mindset, we need a boost to sweeten the pill, in my view, the government should grasp the nettle and privatise the BBC. Not only would the majority of households receive a useful tax benefit, but also the billions received could be usefully employed in the deficit reduction programme. A buyer could soon be found, and would find it relatively simple to achieve significant cost reductions.
    As a business, the BBC represents a major underperforming national asset…….we need the money, sentiment is the only thing holding us back from realising a real bonus.
    At any rate, a valuation would be useful, the current administration’s strategy of loading the Corporation with debt to prevent such a disposal, should not be allowed to continue.

  44. STATGEEK –
    You are correct.
    I like to see a recount in Ed Balls’ constituency but I’m relieved he is Shadow Chancellor.

  45. 35-37-15 are the BBC figures for May locals,
    the ones that were not updated after a certain point in the night.

  46. Ken:

    Quite. The BBC is obsolete, as are its political views.

    So, a strike tomorrow. Well done everybody.

  47. Jayblanc,

    I know how the “theory” works. But, practically, are you seriously trying to suggest that growth would ‘plummet’ if those on out of work benefits were deprived of a 5.2% increase, when public sector and private sector workers are, and have been, experiencing flat to 2% wage increases for the past few years? I’d love to know what any public or private sector workers think of your view that the future of our whole economy rests on the fact that those on benefits get a +5% rise……..!!!

  48. @KEN

    The biggest bid would be from Murdoch. Nah. I don’t think I fancy that. The Beeb news could be scaled down though. It’s far too big, considering the Beeb’s purpose is to ‘inform, educate and entertain’. Too much of the former and too little of the latter. Rolling news channels are great when there’s a war/crisis and the telly is boring, but the telly shouldn’t be boring. :)

  49. Richard in Norway – sorry this is from previous thread, but I had to respond!

    “Damian

    We did have an intruder in our house once, I rushed down the stairs and there was a woman standing in my hallway, I gave her quite a shock, I didn’t realise at first why she was so reluctant to look at me and why the nervous giggle. But as it turned out, in my haste to apprehend the intruder I had neglected to put on any clothes.

    I should say that the poor woman was merely drunk and had mistaken my door for her friends house.”

    Bit of a straw man! Clearly you were making your analogy to draw a distinction between ‘justified’ and ‘support’ . I would not be ‘justified’ in shooting a drunken person who had stumbled into my house, and neither would you support me. The emotive analogy and logical fallacy are not helpful:

    Ff you consider that X is ‘justified’ then surely ‘x’ warrants your support – however passive that support might be?

  50. @ Rob Sheffield

    I watched the Danny Alexander interview on Newsnight.

    I’m very puzzled at your suggestion that he has committed the Lib Dems to ‘supporting only the Tories after the election’. I understood him to be saying that the 2015 Lib Dem manifesto will need to be consistent with our record in government. I don’t for one moment believe that that represents an abandonment of equidistance.

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