Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 15%. The four point Labour lead is very much the norm for YouGov, but worth noting is that hidden within that 15% is 7% for UKIP. YouGov have shown UKIP as high as 6 several times in recent weeks, so it’s hardly a massive difference, but nevertheless it’s the highest YouGov have shown them since June 2009, straight after the European elections.

There is also a new Angus Reid poll out here, which has topline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1). Changes are from last month.


288 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 40, LDEM 9”

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  1. Colin,

    As I said a couple of threads ago, Cameron is now entering his crucible.

    To an even greater extent than Major’s situation, he has to balance a wide spectrum of Euro-views. I suspect that neither wing of that spectrum will mortally wound him with one blow, but he runs the risk of being seen to be reacting to this week’s threat rather than in control of the agenda.

    Throw into the pot that fact that he has an impending economic catastrophe worse than anything Major faced and the crucible is getting nicely hot.

    Cameron has hardly shown himself to be an epoch-making political colossus in his career to date having failed to win in the most favourable conditions that any leader could possibly expect. He will need to significantly up his game if he is to emerge from the next two years as a strong leader seen to be controlling events.

  2. RobC,
    As a tactical voter I reailse that Lab/Con also has huge tactical bases.
    Unfortunately you left out the ‘don’t care if their vote is wasted’. That’s the difference.
    A LD vote was often a wasted vote, but plenty voted LD anyway.
    Not so much a tactical Lab/Con vote.

    So my point was that protest UKIP votes will hurt the Tories.
    So my question was would this protest VI turn in to protest votes?

  3. Cameron’s strength is when he has had time to prepare his lines in anticipation. Taken off guard he can flounder badly, as per his initial response to Ed M over demanding that Wade resign from NI.

    We saw it again this question time when he responded to questions ith attacks rather than answers. If the economy continues to slide he will need some actual answers rather than seek to ridicule the questioner(s).

    To be honest, so far Osborne has done best…and I have a feeling he will be tested more soon.

  4. Statgeek.

    The problem with your analysis, if I may say so is that even by all but the most optimistic of projections, by 2013-14, growth will have been below the “feelgood” level for 3 years or so. For a Tory party that was not particularly popular even at the end of Brown’s regime, that will be a big ball and chain tied to their ankles as they try to sprint towards 2015.

    My reading is that Tories need reasonably strong growth to emerge very quickly, or to have rather exceptional growth emerging by 2014 if they are to have a realistic shot at an outright majority in 2015.

    Alternatively, “Yes it hurt, yes, ummm….errr…arguably it might just about be working as long as we’re not buffeted by ill global winds” ain’t going to be much of a slogan in 2015.

  5. @OLDNAT

    “Please don’t look at the Scottish cross-breaks”

    Had to. Couldn’t resist.

    Well it seems a fair point that the less people polled: the more of the VI the SNP gets.

    While we’re on the subject, are there any Scottish polls of a reasonable sample size up and coming? We could do with some decent information.

  6. PS: Statgeek.

    Meant to say that I fully agree that the Tories will pull back a couple or three percent from UKIP by the time of the GE. But to do that, they will need to tack rightwards, which will make it even less likely that the erstwhile LD voters will leave Labour.

    And THAT division of the centre-left vote will be the issue that determines 2015.

    So, how does Cameron satisfy his own rabid wing whilst chucking the LDs a Labour-bashing bone? If he does, he deserves a place in the Pantheon of the greatest of our political manoeuvrers.

  7. @leftylampton
    I am going to keep repeating this until somebody listens.
    Cameron won the biggest increase in Tory seats since the Great War. It was not quite enough, but look at his start point. Yes he only had the shambling wreck of Gordon Brown to beat, but he had the shambling wreck of the Conservative party to win with.

  8. @LEFTY

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying he’ll achieve these things. I’m saying those are the targets which will win him a majority.

    I preferred the idea of hiking income tax in 2010 to deal with the problem more quickly, then gradually reducing it towards 2015, so that the voters see that the problem is being attacked, but they are not being continuously battered as time goes by. I simply favoured a sharp pain, followed by pain reduction. Deal with the debt sooner, and pay less debt over time as a result.

  9. @LEFTY LAMPTON
    Alternatively, “Yes it hurt, yes, ummm….errr…arguably it might just about be working as long as we’re not buffeted by ill global winds” ain’t going to be much of a slogan in 2015.

    You mean something more like, “Well we broke the country last time, but we wont do it again” Now that’s got a ring about it.

  10. Statgeek

    The only poll that I know will be coming out is the Ipsos-MORI quarterly Scottish Public Opinion Monitor, Field work for that will be done in the last week of November.

  11. Colin

    ” Well first I refer you to RICHBABED who is welcome here-particularly since he knows what he is talking about on Greek matters-unlike you & I”

    Who or what is Richbabed, I have googled and all I find are luxury beds

    Can you provide a link.

  12. John Murphy.

    Yes. The 1931 Government was a Coalition. It was dominated by Conservatives. There were a few Nat Labs and Nat Libs also. This government deflated the economy at a time of recession, turning it into a slump, and applied a very harsh Means Test- with food stamps in exchange for furniture.

    The Labour Party was smashed in 1931 GE and had a small recovery in 1935. Then Attlee, Bevin and Morrison rebuilt Labour, and joined Churchill’s Coalition in 1940.

    The post 1918 Coalition was also dominated by Conservatives, led by Bonar Law. (modern pupils cant stop laughing when they hear that name). LG was PM until 1922, when the Unionists dumped him and put ABL in power, followed a year later by Baldwin.

  13. Chou.

    I’m listening. And I agree. As I have implied, if he can build on that, he’ll fully deserve to be considered a political giant. Especially given the conditions he’s going to be fighting in. Cannon to the left of him. Cannon to the right of him. Fog and an economic precipice in front of him.

    I’m trying not to be partisan here, just laying out the situation as I see it. He has a hell of a job in front of him.

    Thatcher and Wilson are the only post-war examples of PMs who significantly strengthened their position following a first election victory. But Wilson was the arch-political manoeuvrer and had relatively benign economic conditions in 64-65. And by 83, Thatcher had already shown that she could win a comfortable majority and had more than a little help from suicidal opponents in Parliament and the South Atlantic.

    Cameron will have eclipsed Maggie and Wilson as a political operator if he secures a majority in 2015.

  14. Chris

    “This government deflated the economy at a time of recession, turning it into a slump, and applied a very harsh Means Test-”

    Sounds a bit familiar.

  15. Chou.
    @LEFTY LAMPTON
    Alternatively, “Yes it hurt, yes, ummm….errr…arguably it might just about be working as long as we’re not buffeted by ill global winds” ain’t going to be much of a slogan in 2015.

    You mean something more like, “Well we broke the country last time, but we wont do it again” Now that’s got a ring about it.

    I fully realise that your lot are taking some time to acclimatise to being back (almost) in power. But sooner or later, the penny will drop that Govts win or lose elections by their own record, not by the sniping that is appropriate in Opposition.

    IF the economy hasn’t emerged strongly by 2014, Labour has a very simple and powerful message: “We know what a disaster 07-08 was. we accept that we made mistakes. But things were already improving strongly by 09-10. We told you then and we’ve continually told you since that Austerity was a reckless experiment. Events proved us right.” (Not the snappiest poster message, I’ll grant you, but I’m a Big Picture man, not a detail wonk…)

  16. I do start to wonder if I can post anything here without Chou taking it as sign that I am the second coming of Stalin…

  17. NICK POOLE.
    Yes, it does sound familiar.

    But no Attlee and Bevin or Keynes at this time!

    (Did your brother go into computing? I remember him, in September 1966, saying that was where the world was going!)

  18. I’m beginning to feel that DC is begining to get fed up with the job – thought his body language in the clips we saw of him at the Euro events yesterday looked negative.

    I wonder whether he and Osborne will want to carry on like this if there’s a double dip (chances75% now maybe). Jan or Feb when figures start emerging about 2011 Q4 will be interesting.

  19. @JAY BLANC
    Of course not Jay, you would have had me garrotted long ago.

  20. Nice article on the Grauniad website:

    “Is Britain on course to leave the European Union?”

    It seems to me whatever the posturing of party leaders, the PM and cabinet colleagues of the party in office is made fully aware (eg by The Treasury) of the political and economic implications of a withdrawal from the EU.

    There is also the strong possibility that the Con party would effectively be going toe to to with UK business leaders on this issue were they in gov to move ever cloer to withdrawal.

    The problem for DC (and all Con leaders it would seem) is how they carry their party with them on staying in the EU.

    DC has done his level best for several years holding the lid down on this issue within the Con party…but I think he is really struggling now. And it’s goinfg to get worse I think.

  21. The only means that the Tories have of winning the next election is to somehow create at least two years of above trend growth by 2015 – anything less and the electorate will still feel trapped in austerity with a broken economy.

    The electorate don’t generally like the Tories – they vote for them when they feel that the Labour party has been incompetent or appears incompetent – TINA actually sums up not so much Tory policy but how Tory governments get elected – things are rotten maybe the Tories can sort this mess out – Labour are useless – it is why the Tories have to either produce recovery or portray Labour as lethally incompetent to win.

    If Labour match Tories on perceptions of economic competence then they win big. At present Labour do not have a snowball’s chance of appearing competent on the economy – even if what they say is sensible and chimes with the public mood, because of the 2008-2010 recession period – it will take at least a decade to restore their credibility fully. The only saving grace that they have is that the electorate are beginning to view the Tories as being if not equally useless then pretty hopeless on the economy too. If double dip happens then psychologically the Tories lose the only edge that they have at present on the economy – and whilst Labour’s perceived competence will not recover then they will at least be joined in the mire by the Tories.

    It is vital for the Tories that we get a strong recovery pre 2015 – or I believe they are doomed. If we do then people will vote with their heads – TINA to the Tories economically – rather than with their actual preference for the shape of society that they want. If the Tories can’t gain these reluctant voters then they can’t win. There are insufficient natural right wing voters to deliver them a victory.

  22. @mike n
    Funnily enough I think there is a lot in what you say. The other side of the hill has some interesting positions as well. If the EU becomes an election issue in the next GE and it easily could, bearing in mind the present and on going cock up. Will being the “party of Europe be an advantage to Labour? Do try to see beyond your own socialism on this. The anti Europe feeling in Britain is strong whatever lunacy you think it would be to come out.

  23. @OLDNAT

    Ta! (poll)

  24. I know we’re all objective, unbiased and fair-minded on these pages and totally unsullied by party political allegiances of any sort, not least my good self. That’s why it’s always such a delight to debate with such an array of kindred spirits. So, as a self-confessed warrior for balance and impartiality, I thought it might be welcomed by you all if I balanced things up a little in terms of the recent BBC opinion poll on benefits.

    Most of the contributions on this thread have focussed on the undoubted disquiet that the majority have, as evidenced by the poll findings, with benefits going to people who don’t deserve them. In a nutshell, that’s what they’re saying and who would or could be surprised by such a finding? That doesn’t equate to an endorsement of the Governments overall economic policy of austerity, by the way, and other polls suggest that a broad scepticism with that is growing, but it tells us what we already know. People don’t like others getting something for nothing. Not many people do, be the recipients dole cheats or bankers.

    But if you look deeper into the poll findings, the overall support for the concept of a welfare state, there for all the people in their moments of need, is astonishingly high, as it always is when people are questioned about the National Health Service. Two colossal pillars of a social democratic state, and the essence of the post war settlement ushered in by the Atlee government, still supported by the overwhelming majority of the British people.

    We’re a funny old people aren’t we?

  25. @iceman
    There is a great deal of good stuff in what you say, it “rings” true. However, I am not so sure about lack of a right wing. It seems to me, that the one big left wing thing is the NHS. On this issue the public are totally behind Labour, and its a biggy. The other matters, Europe, immigration, social benefits, the public are presently much more in tune with the Tories. Boringly, we will have to wait and see.

  26. @ Iceman- “The electorate don’t generally like the Tories”- evidence please?

    @Mike N- I agree with what you say. DC will have to hold the lid down for a little while longer though.

    @Leftylampton- ” Thatcher had already shown that she could win a comfortable majority and had more than a little help from suicidal opponents in Parliament and the South Atlantic.” What if DC gets some pretty much suicidal opponents in parliament?

  27. @ Chou

    I think the problem with Europe is that antagonism is the default position – it’s almost a reflex action to mock Europe – and if asked then the prevalent perception will be negative. Whether this translates into a real desire to leave the EU when push comes to shove, I have my doubts.

    The difficulty for Cameron if he pushes Europe to the fore and goes in 2015 as a sceptical leader of a sceptical party he may frighten some of the centre ground voters and not gain the Left leaning eurosceptics of which there are many – In drunken moments or moods of frustration I do join them. I am not exactly a Europhile myself more a reluctant accepter ( I suspect many are and many more will be if a referendum and the real prospect of leaving the EU has to be faced) .

    Very few love Europe – on either side – scepticism and caution is fairly universal – GB was not exactly a fan of the Euro – and I think this typifies our relationship with the Eu – on all sides. Tories took us in – Labour woosed out in the end and horribly divided we voted to stay in – Maastricht was loathed on all sides – Lisbon was almost an act of subterfuge – a very reluctant signatory indeed. And so it will continue – we don’t like but have no real choice but to stick with – I reckon.

  28. @Stanley

    In scotland evidence is the Thatcher phobia – in northern England cities Torie have practically vanished – even in 2010 facing an unelectable Labour leader in the midst of the biggest shambles the economy had been in for 70 years that could only muster 37% of the vote – the polling asking about what party you would never vote for constantly putting Tories much higher than Lab or Lib.

    If the Tories were liked they would have had a Blair style landslide in 2010 – the conditions for it were even more favourable then Blair’s in 1997 – the outgoing government actually polled a lower percentage of the vote in 2010 than in 1997 and yet because of the unlikeability of the Tories they could not gain sufficient support for a majority. Any popular opposition would have won big against GB then.

  29. STANLEY

    @”To clarify, I meant the tory policy will get more Eurosceptic over the next few years.”

    I think it already has-around 50% of the Rebels were 2010 intake.

    DC & GO have to keep it at the Eurosceptic/Eurorealist end of the spectrum though, and we will perhaps see as the EZ saga unfolds if they can.

    Today in HoC GO was laying it on with a trowel how important EZ & our EU membership is -even explaining that to a Labour MP who wanted the euro to collapse!

    I think it will be fairly easy to keep the party on the Euro realist track-particularly if they follow through with real attempts to renegotiate competencies-quite how the LDs will perform when that time comes is anyones guess :-)

    Richard in Norway

    RICHEBABED addressed a post to you from Athens, on this thread at 10.16pm on 26th

  30. @Chouenlai
    “ps I had been expecting a 4 or 5 point jump for Labour, in other words an 8 or 9 point lead.”

    Why do you keep expecting such a big lead? I thought everyone loves what the Coalition government is doing and EM is so useless and taking Labour down the tube.

  31. @Statgeek

    “@ Iceman- “The electorate don’t generally like the Tories”- evidence please?”

    Iceman put it fairly starkly, I agree, but it might be worth you looking at a recent extensive YouGov poll that, amongst other things, gauged the “toxicity” of each of the three main political parties. The Tories attracted a significantly higher proportion of people saying that they would never vote for them than either of the other two parties and had a much smaller pool of potential voters than either Labour or the Lib Dems. Whether this quite fits Iceman’s description, I’m not sure, but I think I know what he’s getting at.

  32. @Liz Hancock

    “Why do you keep expecting such a big lead? I thought everyone loves what the Coalition government is doing and EM is so useless and taking Labour down the tube.”

    It’s called expectation management and it is a classic tool in the spinners cookbook. “Labour 10% ahead? By golly gosh, I’d thought they’d have at least a 20% lead by now!”

    And so it goes on.

  33. @Chouenlai

    “I am going to keep repeating this until somebody listens.
    Cameron won the biggest increase in Tory seats since the Great War. It was not quite enough, but look at his start point.”

    I agree with you that the Tories gained a lot of marginal seats in 2010, usually on fairly moderate swings, and that the targeting strategy orchestrated and financed by Lord Ashcroft was very successful. However it masked a generally underwhelming electoral performance where Cameron increased the Tory share of the vote by just over 3% from Michael Howard’s showing in 2005 and, in popular vote terms, polled 750,000 fewer votes than Kinnock did in 1992.

    A question for you, Chou. In your heart of hearts, did you not think that Cameron was going to win a thumping majority in May 2010. Most Tories of my acquaintance, certainly before the Clegg Show in the first TV debate, thought he was going to win by an absolute mile. I did too.

  34. “Most Tories of my acquaintance, certainly before the Clegg Show in the first TV debate, thought he was going to win by an absolute mile. I did too.”

    You and Roland were posting here at the time, did none of you listen to anything I said? ;)

    I told you all that while they could probably got a majority on less than the 11 point lead they needed on paper, in practice they would still need a lead of 8 or 9 points to scrape a majority, and there were precious few polls showing that!

  35. Stanley.
    “What if DC gets some pretty much suicidal opponents in parliament?”

    Very, very small chance of that, I’d say. Sure there are the disgruntled Blairites moaning in the corridors about EM, but that’s chickenfeed compared to the self-inflicted problems of the Left in the early 80s.

    Perhaps I should have used the term “fratricidal” by the way, given that the centre-left tore itself apart and gave Thatcher a clear run to thumping majorities on really rather poor (by early standards) polling figures.

    The point now of course being that, barring some collective leaving of senses, there is no likelihood whatsoever of the centre-left to going into 2015 divided.

  36. @Statgeek

    “@ Iceman- “The electorate don’t generally like the Tories”- evidence please?”

    How about the fact that the Tories VI in opinion polls has only been consistently above 40% for four brief periods in the past 27 years:

    ~18 months at the height of the Lawson boom
    ~2-3 months after the disposal of Thatcher
    ~6 months between the April 92 election and Black Wednesday
    ~18 months at the depths of the 07-09 crash

    By the standards of the “natural party of Government” that is a dreadful showing and implies a long term rejection by the electorate (relative to status quo ante).

  37. Colin

    I saw richbabed comments now, they were not there last night, at least I didn’t see them, probably in pre mod if he is a new user

  38. Richbabed

    By all means tell us how you see the situation in Greece, I can only go by the stories from Greek people on the net, if you have other stories please share

    And maybe you can tell us how well you knew this guy

    http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/09/17/thessaloniki-debt-ridden-greek-sets-himself-on-fire/

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