Tonight’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll has topline voting intention figures of CON 38%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. This is the smallest Labour lead YouGov have shown since the start of June, but I’ll add my normal caveat about any poll showing a significant change – it may be meaningful, or may be an outlier. Wait and see if it is sustained in future polls.

Full report tomorrow when the tables are published.


80 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 38, LAB 41, LDEM 9”

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  1. Strictly speaking I should say ‘first’ as the dreaded i-box is covering all the comment box, except the first line.

    However there were slight indications of a move to the Tories in the last poll so something might be going on – if only because of a lack of exposure of Labour in the last week. Details will be interesting, especially non-voters.

  2. Has there been any change in the newspaper weightings?

  3. Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy
    Dummy

    To get round that ******* i-box

    Apologies to anyone who can’t see it and thinks I’m insane.

  4. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this is a meaningful change.

    Tory VI has been rapidly trending upward for the past few days.
    I’d say we’ve gone from 35/43/9 to 37/42/9 since the good news in Libya.

    But that’s just my gut reaction/reading of the small amount of data.

  5. Roger Mexico

    “I’m insane.” But we’re still all very fond of you. :-)

  6. Curses – too late!

    Could comment #2 repost as I can’t see anything except the letters ‘ightings’. UFO sightings ?

    And for those similarly afflicted (by the bug not insanity) the last sentence of comment #1 was:

    “Details should be interesting, especially non-voters.”

  7. good news in Libya?Well I suppose that depends on what
    you think good news is.Ula Gerrin has just reported that
    the situation in Tripoli is dire,no water,medical supplies etc.Yet Nato is defending civilians,apparently.

  8. Roger Mexico – Two-thirds of my readers don’t use Internet Explorer, so they now think you are odd (incidentally, it is a problem with the adverts – my advertising guys are having a look at it to try and correct it).

    Mike – if there was any significant methodological change I would certainly have mentioned it in the post!

  9. “ANN (IN WALES)”
    Okay – the public *perception* of good news in Libya – backed by the improved polling in support for the war and the polling saying that the war in going well.

    That’s all that matters in polling and politics – perceptions.

    I do wonder what would happen if the Tory and Labour VI situations get reversed – would the Tories risk a General Election if they’re solidly above Labour?
    They’re pretty much guaranteed seats in Lib/Con seats and holding the Con/Lab seats that they won in 2010 would, IIRC, give them a majority.

  10. If there is a slight upwards trend for the Tories, I am not sure why this is. Libya ? Riot response e.g tough sentencing ?

    In terms of economic news, there not been anything positive for the Tories during recent weeks, apart from a reduction in public sector borrowing for July. I can’t think that people have considered that when asked about VI.

    Have some swing voters moved from Labour to Tory, perhaps due to perceived weakness in Labours response to the riots. I think this is a possibility.

  11. Outlier.

    This is making me nervous-I’m used to a Labour lead touching 10%-thats what makes sense at this stage.

  12. Anthony

    How do you know 2/3rds don’t use IE ?

    Roger

    If you are using IE, I think you should try Firefox. So much quicker and less hassle to use. Yes it is less attractive visually on screen, but IE can be such a pain to use.

  13. with of all the might of Nato behind them ,even now bombing sirte,though god knows what that has got to do with protecting civilians,it would be strange if Gadaffi had
    hung on to power.As we all know,it will be more difficult to
    win the peace than the war.And what is all this costing?
    There may be a temporary boost in the polls for the Tories
    but not for long I would guess.

  14. As far as weekly figures go –
    Unweighted –
    Con – 36.6 (+1)
    Lab – 42.8 (+0.2)
    Lib – 9 (-0.6)

    Weekly figures weighted against past 4 weeks –
    Con 35.9 (+0.3)
    Lab 42.9 (nc)
    Lib 9.3(-0.1)

    Figures weighted against past 30 days (compared to last week’s figure) –
    Con 35.9 (+0.4)
    Lab 42.9 (-0.1)
    Lib 9.4 (nc)

  15. R Huckle – when you visit a website, the server receives information like your IP address and the browser you are using, so things like Google Analytics and Statcounter can provide you with the breakdown of where visitors to your website come from, what browsers they are using, etc.

    Strictly speaking, the two thirds only applies to people who visited UKPollingReport in the last 25 minutes. Looking at them again now (changed slightly since 10 minutes ago), it is 37% IE, 22% Chrome, 18% Firefox, 10% Safari, 11% various mobiles.

  16. It might be worth remembering that last Sunday we had a YG with Labour on 40% and with just a four point lead, which then reopened to 9, 7 and 7 as the week progressed. Whether there is any weekend effect (probably a Friday effect I guess in terms of when the polling was done) is anyone’s guess, but this is a bank holiday poll in effect, and we are often warned to treat those with caution.

    That said, Libya could be having an impact, although I don’t know if the TV coverage will swing many votes amongst the wider public. It looks largely like any other unpleasant conflict, with no British troops in sight, so I don’t know whether it’s a major poll shifter.

  17. I think it is probably picking up on a trend, but tonight’s 3 point lead is likely a bit of an outlier I suspect. Thursday’s 5 point Labour lead is probably closer to where Yougov is at at the moment. Expect it to revert back to 4-7% leads by next week.

    I think the narrowing in the polls is partly down to the situation in Libya, but also due to the reactions to the riots. Calling for severe and tough punishments is traditionally a strong point for the Tories, and talking of parenting and not inequality being the problem has made them only make them more popular with some sections of the British population IMO.

  18. Alec,
    I was convinced that was a outlier last week – I’m convinced otherwise this week.
    But as they say, a broken clock is wrong twice a day, so we’ll see how wrong I am over the next few days. ;)

  19. Alec – the same worry about some sort of Friday effect did cross my mind when I first saw the results on Friday. Thankfully, looking back over previous weeks there is no obvious pattern.

  20. Anthony

    Roger Mexico – Two-thirds of my readers don’t use Internet Explorer, so they now think you are odd

    Great, an improvement of a third! :D

  21. @Tingedfringe,

    “I’d say we’ve gone from 35/43/9 to 37/42/9 since the good news in Libya. ”

    Yes, I agree with those figures. I think the 8 point Yougov lead has now shrunk to 5 points – like you say. Tonight’s Yougov is just a slight exaggeration of this shift.

  22. Roger Mexico

    “Great, an improvement of a third!”

    No one said anything about the opinions of those using IE. Your hopes of an improvent in your polling may be transitory. :-)

  23. “But as they say, a broken clock is wrong twice a day, so we’ll see how wrong I am over the next few days.”
    Should read ‘broken clock is right twice a day’…

    Shows how broken my intellect is right now. ;)

  24. Tingedfringe

    ” broken clock is right twice a day” That’s still a far better record than the Unionists have had on the Edinburgh trams!

    Oops! That was a jibe. :-)

  25. The government is on holiday & their polling improves. Dare I suggest: People like the Conservatives better when they aren’t there? ;-)

    The Tories ‘natural’ supporters do favour small government, so there’s some logic underpinning my
    (intended to be mildly amusing) point.
    8-)

  26. @Amber,

    8-)

  27. Amber

    “The government is on holiday & their polling improves.”

    Have you had an early view of the ipsos-MORI Scottish poll? :-)

  28. @ Old Nat

    Oops! That was a jibe.
    —————————-
    No, it wasn’t. :-) It’s fair comment about an idea that wasn’t a good solution to the problem in the first place. The trams are a salutory lesson about how the least worst solution is sometimes worse than no solution at all.
    8-)

  29. Where we are after the conference season is going to be most telling as by then there’ll have been a lot of publicity about all sorts of things including Tory right wing attacks on Cameron.

    For October 11th I’d go for C – 34, L – 43, LD – 10.

    Any other offers?

  30. @ Old Nat

    Have you had an early view of the ipsos-MORI Scottish poll?
    ————————————————-
    A young man from Ipso Mori actually called me today; I’m not kidding. But he was on the hunt for 18 – 24 year olds. I thought about how important honesty is for accurate polling & refrained from saying 21 [again], so he went off in search of a younger woman…
    8-)

  31. Amber

    Shh! Promise not to tell anyone? On this occasion the SNP happened to be right, but it’s entirely possible that if the Unionists had been against the trams, the SNP might have been gung-ho for it! :-)

    Remember don’t tell anyone I said that. :-)

  32. Amber

    “he went off in search of a younger woman” Eejit!

    It’s like those suicide bombers expecting 72 virgin young women to be better than …

    No i’m not going any further with that thought!

  33. “including Tory right wing attacks on Cameron.”
    Cameron’s starting to shift further right – the right-wing of his party should be extremely happy.
    He’s vocally more ‘tough on crime’, anti-immigration and anti-europe.
    Cameron should have a really easy and successful conference.

    The real risk isn’t for Cameron, but for Clegg.
    He’ll have to try to on one hand defend Cameron’s rhetoric to his party – dragging them right in the process. But on the other hand, have to not push so far right that he provokes internal rebellion.

    Miliband also has a bit of risk – but not in the same way.
    He risks projecting a bland image and having a fairly uneventful conference.

    If I were to guess, I’d see a growth in Tory figures, a possible dip in LibDem figures – and no real change in Labour.

    So 38-42-8 perhaps?

  34. Tingedfringe

    Well technically a stopped clock is wrong twice a day – for 11hrs 59 min.

    Amber & OldNat

    In David Daiches “A Travellers Companion to Edinburgh” (1986), he quotes Eric Linklater from 1960:

    [Princes Street], itself, the thoroughfare, has of late been vastly improved by removal of the rails and cables between which a rattling fleet of tram-cars used to ply on their Calvinistically predestined courses; […]

  35. Roger Mexico

    Hardly surprising about Eric Linklater’s view. He stood as a Nationalist in 1933!

    Very prescient of him. :-)

  36. @ Old Nat

    ROFLOL

    :-) No i’m not going any further with that thought! :-)

  37. My speculation is that if things continue to go well in Libya, apart from the Libyan people, the biggest winner could be David Cameron. He has been seen to lead the world on this issue and provided that he continues to lead and things continue to go well, he’ll get a lot of credit. If the NTC successfully guide Libya to free and fair elections, I think that Cameron’s Libyan policies could be one of this country’s most successful foreign policy initiatives for decades.

    If you saw Libyan rebels being interviewed on the TV last week, many of them were saying that they wouldn’t be in Tripoli if it hadn’t been for British help. A lot of people get most of their news from BBC TV and Sky News. I think this may be having a small but noticeable effect on the polls already.

  38. @ Old Nat

    Are you opposed to mass transit or are you just unhappy with the management of the program to build the mass transit in question?

  39. Charles Stuart

    “My speculation is that if things continue to go well in Libya, apart from the Libyan people, the biggest winner could be David Cameron.”

    And what would your speculation be if things DON’T “continue to go well in Libya”? Do you expect Cameron to be the biggest loser?

  40. @ Tinged Fringe

    Miliband also has a bit of risk – but not in the same way.
    He risks projecting a bland image and having a fairly uneventful conference.
    ——————————————
    I’m going as a CLP delegate. I am taking a book to read during the boring bits…

    There is to be an open day – Any member of the public who registers can attend. It was Ed’s own idea, apparently. Given that no good deed goes unpunished, I expect there will be some lively conference footage of somebody giving Ed their frank evaluation of ‘his’ Labour Party which will be toe-curlingly embarrassing for those of us who support him.
    8-)

  41. SoCalLiberal

    The Scottish Government analysed the Edinburgh Tram Project (along with a number of other suggested projects) when they came to power in 2007. The analysis suggested that the Edinburgh trams project was unlikely to be feasible within the suggested budget, and that the cost benefits suggested wouldn’t arrive.

    Consequently, the SNP proposed cancelling the idea along with other grandiose transport schemes. In one of these silly political things, that happen from time to time anywhere, the Unionist parties did some macho posturing and insisted that the then minority Government provide £500m to the trams project.

    The management of the project by the Unionist parties in Edinburgh Council has been worse than anyone could have imagined.

    My guess is that during/after(? ) next year’s local government elections when the existing project has terminated, the SNP Government will take it over, negotiate a fixed budget contract to connect Haymarket and the City Centre, and cut Edinburgh’s budget appropriately.

    To answer your question directly, mass transit schemes can be good, but only if they are cost effective, You have seen Edinburgh. It’s not that massive a city!

  42. It is understood that the Liberal Democrats are pushing for a “wealth tax” of some variety, possibly through a council tax superband on high-value homes, as a replacement for the 50p rate.
    —————————————
    A change to the ‘mansion tax’ which we postulated some days (weeks?) ago on UK PR.
    8-)

  43. The chancellor [George Osborne] reasserts his determination to ensure that the tax system is fair and says the clampdown announced on rich people sheltering their wealth in Switzerland is “just the start”.

    “Tax evasion is morally repugnant,” he writes. “It’s stealing from law-abiding people, who face higher taxes to make good the lost revenue.”
    ———————————————–
    Hooray! Ed Miliband has persuaded George Osborne that responsibility should apply to those at the top as well as those at the bottom.

    George will no doubt give Labour ‘a right good kicking’ somewhere in his Observer article; he can’t have voters giving Labour any credit for influencing his remarks. Och well, it still made me smile to see:
    “Tax evasion is morally repugnant” from a Tory chancellor. :-)

  44. Amber

    I think we’ve had this discussion before.

    “a council tax superband on high-value homes” as a UK measure to compensate for a change in Income Tax rates, totally ignores the situation in the devolved nations.

    OK I’m not in the least bit surprised that Clegg is totally ignorant of, and unconcerned with the constitutional implications of simply applying an English answer to a UK question.

    Under the circumstances, the LDs getting 1.4% of the vote in Saltcoats/Stevenston may be exaggerating their support with such an Anglo-centric leader at Westminster, and a lapdog at Holyrood.

  45. @ Charles Stuart

    Nice to see you here (wanted to chat Canadian politics with you). Did you hear about Jack Layton dying this week? It’s sad on it’s own but I find it further saddening that the guy would seemingly reach his prime in politics and lead the NDP to its first time in official opposition, only to die (and so relatively young too). I wonder if this helps the Liberals there as they fight to reestablish themselves.

  46. @TingedFringe
    “He’s vocally more ‘tough on crime’, anti-immigration and anti-europe.
    Cameron should have a really easy and successful conference.”

    That’s his problem – he says the ‘right’ things, but nothing seems to actually happen as a result. He risks losing support from the left of the party because of his rhetoric, and from the right because of the lack of action.

  47. I think if the polls continue to narrow Milliband could have quite a difficult conference. I think the Tories will be very happy with the current Labour lead, in view of the cuts, tuition fees, slow growth, the NHS, Coulson and the riots, conversely I think Labour will be disappointed that all these things have not created a much greater lead.
    Since his late arrival to deal with the riots, Cameron appears to have hardly put a foot wrong and although the police complained that Cameron’s return had nothing to do with them regaining control, the public could hardly fail to notice that this did seem to coincide with Cameron’s return. His statements on the riots and the punishments seem to be closer to the public view than those made by Milliband, who seemed to come over as weak .
    Milliband did well with ‘hackgate’ but he now needs to show he is not a one trick pony. He needs to quickly explain his vision and start putting forward some policy ideas or the pressures on him will again start to grow. Already his personal ratings are beginning to fall.
    After all brother David is still waiting in the wings.

  48. @ Old Nat

    “The Scottish Government analysed the Edinburgh Tram Project (along with a number of other suggested projects) when they came to power in 2007. The analysis suggested that the Edinburgh trams project was unlikely to be feasible within the suggested budget, and that the cost benefits suggested wouldn’t arrive.

    Consequently, the SNP proposed cancelling the idea along with other grandiose transport schemes. In one of these silly political things, that happen from time to time anywhere, the Unionist parties did some macho posturing and insisted that the then minority Government provide £500m to the trams project.

    The management of the project by the Unionist parties in Edinburgh Council has been worse than anyone could have imagined.

    My guess is that during/after(? ) next year’s local government elections when the existing project has terminated, the SNP Government will take it over, negotiate a fixed budget contract to connect Haymarket and the City Centre, and cut Edinburgh’s budget appropriately.

    To answer your question directly, mass transit schemes can be good, but only if they are cost effective, You have seen Edinburgh. It’s not that massive a city!”

    I have a few thoughts on this being such a strong mass transit supporter and something of an activist on issues like this:

    1. I don’t think that mass transit systems have to be cost effective. Obviously, cost has to be factored into it as you can’t have a system that is unsustainable. But I do think that a mass transit system is something of such great value that if the system’s budget results in a net operating loss, it’s okay.

    2. Bad management of a mass transit construction project shouldn’t deter completion of the system, expansions of that system, and the building of future systems. Just because one line gets mismanaged during its construction doesn’t mean that future lines will be.

    3. While I’m okay with net operating losses for a mass transit system, obviously they can’t be unsustainable losses and also it doesn’t excuse mismanagement of money and unneccessary cost overruns.

    4. I prefer subways to street cars. In this modern world we live in, we don’t need slow moving, old fashioned transit that no one wants to ride.

  49. @ Old Nat

    “And what would your speculation be if things DON’T “continue to go well in Libya”? Do you expect Cameron to be the biggest loser?”

    I don’t know why either he or Sarkozy should get any credit for this. I mean, they looked like bumbling idiots until Obama got involved. For three weeks, they kept saber rattling against Ghadaffi but were completely ineffective. Obama came in and within 24 hours, we had a UN Security Council Resolution authorizing action and an international coalition assembled to go in and take on Ghadaffi.

    I might add too that great progress was made against Ghaddafi’s forces largely because of the U.S. forces being so effective and as one blogger here (I think it was Neil A but I can’t remember) pointed out, task oriented. The last several months of ineffectiveness have largely been due to the fact that the U.S. has played a side role (we do have two other major Middle Eastern battlefields we’re trying to get out of).

    And don’t try to sell me either on “well Cameron and Sarkozy” convinced Obama (not that you are). Because that’s bs, pure and simple. No, it was Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice, and Samantha Power (his administration’s leftwingers) who pushed him to go do this. If they hadn’t done convinced him and the U.S. hadn’t gotten involved, I think the rebellion would have been over back in March.

  50. @ Old Nat

    “Consequently, the SNP proposed cancelling the idea along with other grandiose transport schemes. In one of these silly political things, that happen from time to time anywhere, the Unionist parties did some macho posturing and insisted that the then minority Government provide £500m to the trams project.”

    I admit that this is one area where I am an unreasonable ideologue. It costs over 300 million dollars a mile to build a subway line where I live (actually, it costs more now). And during the initial phase of subway development, we had (1) fraud, (2) gross mismanagement, (3) delays, (4) unexpected sinkholes opening up on major boulevards without warning, (5) property damage to structures and property near points of excavation, and (6) serious injuries and deaths. The latter two increased liability dramatically contributing to high costs. In fact, part of a planned subway route was supposed to run through a methane gas field but no one actually noticed until an unrelated explosion occurred. I mean, what a disaster.

    And yet, even after all that, I still am an ardent subway advocate! I have cheered recent subway extensions and cursed light rail lines and busways. I have been politically active in pushing for more subways and subway extension.

    I think this qualifies me as an ideologue.

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