Tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. Despite the political upheaval of the riots, there is very little change in voting intentions – a 6 point Labour lead is at the low end of YouGov’s recent range, but the underlying Labour lead still seems to be about 7-8 points.

129 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 42, LDEM 10”

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  1. Henry.

    By the way. My 13 year old cousin was knocked down and left brain damaged by an otherwise law-abiding citizen who chose to ignore the speed limit.

    The driver got a second chance.

  2. For those getting hot under the collar on behalf of the two Cheshire blokes with 4 year sentences The Times reports :-

    The CPS is using S44 & 46 of the Serious Crime Act 2007 to prosecute anyone inciting or encouraging violence through Blackberry instant messaging.

    These offences carry a max sentence of ten years.
    The two individuals sentenced to 4 years will probably serve two years.

  3. Leftylampton

    By the way. My 13 year old cousin was knocked down and left brain damaged by an otherwise law-abiding citizen who chose to ignore the speed limit. The driver got a second chance.

    I am sorry to hear that, one of my best friend’s kid (4 years) was killed by a hit and run driven and they never got the culprit. It is so tragic.

  4. From the Guardian:

    “Lord Carlile, the barrister and former Liberal Democrat MP warned that the sacrosanct separation of powers between the government and the judiciary had appeared to have been breached by some of the messages coming out of government since the riots engulfed neighbourhoods last week.”

    I can only think he is referring to the PM’s comments.

  5. @ Nick Poole

    “Any hope for their future”

    Oh come on. If they really wanted to make something of themselves they could. There are plenty of stories of young people from far more deprived backgrounds than theirs that make it through hard work and persistence.

    Every day people are getting off planes and finding jobs here without even speaking English. Even with unemployment increasing today the number of people in work also increased. Who have filled the jobs? I’ll tell you. People from abroad with backgrounds far more deprived than anyone born in this country, with its free education, healthcare and welfare state. But they don’t give up and say OHHHH its hopeless like a bunch of spineless sissies. No, they have a bit of backbone and work ethic.

    Anyway I used the word sweeties advisedly. What was looted? Food because they are starving? No. Trainers, designer sports ware, flat screen TVs. Sweeties by any other name.

  6. Stuff they could sell.

  7. Second chances are of course only for the middle classes. This is nothing new.

    When I was at Uni in the 1980’s Rugby clubs at Edinburgh Uni destroyed entire hotels and simply paid their way out of trouble whilst local youths were jailed for similar offences of much less magnitude; there was a drug bust in Musselburgh, the Musselburgh high kids involved all got charged and were expelled and dragged through the courts; the Loretto ( posh drug-infested private school in East Lothian) kids were not. This is how our society works. It’s why it stinks.

    Of course Cameron’s youthful misdemeanours can be ignored, and they should, as should Clegg’s but as should a whole heap of stupid kids being dragged through the courts with ridiculous sentences for minimal crimes, and if any of them are the children of the wealthy then of course they will be given second chances.

    It’s how the legal system works and how it is meant to work. If you think it has anything to do with justice and equity then you are hopelessly naive.

    No doubt I will be called cynical but the cynical ones, as ever are of course those who administer these system”s for purely sectional benefit whilst pontificating garbage about moral decline and scapegoating some or other group of the urban poorwho happen to be bogeyman of that particular year.

    This in terms of polling will shore up Tory VI but not extend it, and may leave the schizophrenia of he lib-dem position in this coalition at such a state as to destroy the party entirely. No Libdem can with any conscience back this narrative of DC and the Tories – and yet they do!!!

  8. Valerie

    ‘Just watched a clip of Nick Clegg, on YouTube during the GE campaign, warning there would be riots if a Government, with a only thin mandate, introduced savage cuts.
    He must have had a crystal ball!’

    I think NC has come to regret some of things said to win a few votes from Tories in marginals (more about tuition fees than this), now that he is in govt.

    However, if he has made you a fan. Can’t be all bad.

  9. Nick Poole

    “If you take “their sweeties” out of your sentence and replace with “any hope for their future” I will agree with you.”

    Can you explain how any of the following enhanced their hopes for their futures:-

    Burning down 30 independent shops & factories which offer employment.
    Burning down the houses & flats of innocent fellow citizens.
    Killing a retired accountant who was trying to put out a fire.
    Breaking into & looting 350 independent stores which provide employment.
    Breaking into & looting branches of well known sports & electronic retailers which provide employment.
    Dragging a Scooter owner of his machine & stealing it.
    Burning the cars & vans of innocent local residents.
    Torching a Charity BUs & breaking into a Charity Shop.
    Causing £200 million of damage which will probably put insurance premiums up.


  10. @ Nick Poole

    Stuff they could sell.


    Sell; to buy food, because they were starving or to buy drugs? Ummmmm. I wonder?

  11. Henry.

    I too am sorry to hear that. The point of course is that the law is the law. It’s not up to us as individuals to determine which laws we will stick to and which ones we will flout. Or at least, if we do, then start moralising about other people’s choices, we are hypocrites.

    The overwhelming majority of people who rioted last week caused less damage and distress than the man who maimed by cousin. The overwhelming majority of rioters who have been dealt with have received far harsher sentences than that man (who lost his licence and received a fine).


  12. ICEMAN

    ‘Second chances are of course only for the middle classes. This is nothing new’.

    I and many millions of middle class people did not go to public school, do not play rugby, and certainly do not behave like yobs.

    Play your class wars with upper class DC/TB versus the deprived, but leave the middle class out of it, particularly as the vast majority of UK citizens are now considered middle class.

    My grandad started as a farm labourer and my dad left school and started work at 14 as a material cutter, no different from many other people whose families have now become middle class.

  13. Good Afternoon from sunny Southbourne.

    The BBC analysis of rising claimant count and riising ILO unemployment figures point to a ‘Double Dip’ I think.

    This will make the deficit reduction very difficult to achieve.

    Trade Deficit figures also were poor last week

    But Ed Miliband may not be the man to capitalise, as Kinnock wa not quite up to it in 1987 and 1992, despite his courage.

    And I think Cameron is coming over strongly.

    (Results out tomorrow to the students, on line in schools now)

    In terms of the debate on the riots, I think Blair would be doing a very strong line now attacking the criminality and also identifying the problems affected by all societies with ‘conspicuous consumption’ and an under class, together with, in Nick Poole’s words schools that are ‘WAR ZONES’ .

  14. @ Henry

    You and I Henry ( I am a teacher) are, of course still workers. The upper class are the few gentry – the middle classes are those who have inherited property and are privately educated. Why anyone who has inherited no property, been state educated and has to work to pay for the food on their table should deem themselves anything other than a member of the workers is beyond me. It’s not about some kind of poverty chic it’s about a recognition of your actual role in the economic system.

    The new middle classes are of course humoured by the sobriquet into viewing themselves as being in some way superior to other workers with less money and even fewer assets.

  15. Previous post to ICEMAN

    ‘I and many millions of middle class people did not go to public school, do not play rugby, and certainly do not behave like yobs’.

    Actually I am too old to play rugby. However the above applies to my children. Does Comp educated, soccer (boys and girls) and being law abiding citizens rule them out as middle class in your eyes?

  16. Henry as per above – yes. Law abiding comp educated hard working citizens – makes them workers in my eyes.

  17. ICEMAN

    You have answered my question and you have an interesting view and your own definition of middle class which I think is more limited than most, and demonstrates how there can be misunderstanding.

    I understood that teachers were middle class, my wife is and claims to be both. .

    And my mum left me 50K and my kids 1K each. Although none of us gave up working. I suppose we are now your much hated middle class after all.

  18. Chris Lane 45

    In terms of the debate on the riots, I think Blair would be doing a very strong line now attacking the criminality and also identifying the problems affected by all societies with ‘conspicuous consumption’ and an under class, together with, in Nick Poole’s words schools that are ‘WAR ZONES’ .

    Yes, he’d probably be saying I will be ‘Tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime’.

    Actually there is much that TB said in the early days with which I totally agreed and thought he expressed well. He just never delivered. I suppose I am just a gullible worker.

  19. That is the problem in the UK, the ‘class system’.

    You don’t see this is newer countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the US.

    Prince William and Harry should be seen as working class. They both have several jobs and probably have to work more hours than is average in the UK, I am not a royalist, in fact far from it, as I would prefer to have a republic, wiith the Royals not involved in anything to do with the parliamentary system. But you have to appreciate the work the Royals put in, that only came about due to accident of birth.

    While mentioing the Royals, I have not seen anything from The Queen about the riots. I am sure that if these had taken place in another commonwealth country, there would have been a statement released. Seems a bit odd. Perhaps the government did not want a statement made.

  20. On the matter of incitement to riot and the sentences meted out to the two individuals who used the Internet.

    I confess to being torn. On the one hand the sentences seem excessive and on the other I understand the need to send a message. Does it make any difference that a riot did not occur?

    So, supposing someone set up an Internet page that strongly advised people not to turn up for a riot at a particualr place/time. But the riot occurs because people read the page and ‘attend’ anyway? Has there been an incitement to riot?

  21. The almost uncommented Eurozone crisis seems to be lapping up at my own door today. I received a letter from my bank telling me that they had unilaterally reduced my personal overdraft level by around 40%, despite the level of regular payments into the account increasing and the fact that I haven’t used the overdraft facility for some time. I don’t think this decision is in any way directed at my personal finances but clearly the bank is becoming highly defensive and is reducing it’s debt exposure. They know what’s coming.

    Merkel and Sarkosy have rejected an increase in the bailout fund or the idea of Eurobonds, but are instead calling for greater fiscal union, a move Osborme supports. The markets are supremely unimpressed and I just can’t see voters in either the rich northern countries or the indebted southern ones accepting such a move.

    Osborne has also failed to address the issue of how qualified majority voting would work if 17 countries effective form a single voting block on any economic and fiscal matters.

    We’re being driven towards recession on both sides of the atlantic and the Eurozone is heading for disaster. As Krugman puts it “It really is a race between America and Europe: who can make the worst of a bad situation. And both competitors are giving it their all,”.

  22. ICEMAN and HENRY.

    Iceman, Brilliant analysis. I am a teacher. That means I am worker. Old Clause 4: Worker by hand or by brain. The NAS leader, Terry Casey always told us that teaching is NOT, repeat NOT a profession. We do not charge fees or control entry.
    So therefore TA’s and Cover Supervisors do our jobs, and they are doing, on low wage rates

    But embourgeoisement makes many teachers think they are ‘middle class’- despite no more wage rises, attacks on the ‘gold plated pension’ and Mr Letwin’s vow to make us have ‘more fear and discipline’ in the work place.

    Having said that my wife and I sent our children to private schools, with considerable diffculty, as we wanted them to have the choices open to the middle class. (Latin, small classes, good access to Oxbridge, proper school sport, teachers who get pay rises every year)

    So Henry, not a ‘hated’ middle class. Just a desire to have an equal society, where the ‘many’ enjoy the benefits, IF they work hard. ‘From each according to his needs, from each according to his ability’.

    NYE said: ‘Nothing is too good for the working class’

    If they wont work then, as S. Paul says: Let them not eat.

    So not soft love.

  23. @Henry, @Iceman

    The whole middle-class/working-class division is dificult to define. My favorite version is this:

    * Benefit class – will never afford own home and will have rent paid for them
    * Lower-working-class – will never afford a home but will pay own rent
    * Upper-working-class – will afford a home after saving own deposit
    * Lower-middle-class – will afford a home after being gifted deposit by parents
    * Upper-middle-class – will have home bought for them by parents
    * Upper-class – will inherit own home from parents

    My corollary to this is
    * Working class – do not expect to inherit home on death of parents
    * Middle class – expect to inherit home on death of parents
    * Upper class – expect to inherit home on death of any older relative

    Regards, Martyn

  24. MARTYN.
    Thanks, very helpful.
    In addition to the property owning criterion, I would also add that those people who pay school fees to genuinely high achieving Independent Schools have achieved middle class access for their children.

    One small example. In my son’s Day School he had 12 50 Minute lessons in his Upper Sixth in a fortnight cycle.

    Thus, for example, in both History Papers, he had 3 lessons a week, allowing one for an essay test, one for feedback and one for prep for the next essay.

    In my own state school it is 2 lessons a week.

    He also greatly benefitted from organised weekend competitive school sport: confidence and success..

    So he has gained middle class access. But it has to be paid for. £1200 a month for him it was.

  25. @ R HUCKLE

    “While mentioing the Royals, I have not seen anything from The Queen about the riots. I am sure that if these had taken place in another commonwealth country, there would have been a statement released”

    Charles & Camilla were in Tottenham today ” supporting” people-whatever that means-as he once said.

  26. @ Roger Mexico

    “But I think you’ve missed the point. Most of the things you state happened after the reporting of the disturbances had already started. Because of Duggan’s death, the media were already there. The question is how much the fact that one riot took place at a quiet news time and another where attention was elsewhere made a difference. You can’t have copycat events if you don’t know what you’re copying.”

    I don’t think I have.

    The Duggan shooting was clearly before the event & a catalyst for it .

    As to the subsequent sequence of events in London , IDS offered these opinions in the Spectator :-

    “Duncan Smith believes that the looting was a mixture of professional gangs, who would set a building ablaze then rob a jeweller’s store, and opportunists who were swept up in the crowd. The original Tottenham riot, he says, was spontaneous. ‘There were groups like the Socialist Workers Party inciting a lot of anger. But when people saw the police couldn’t control both the riot and the looting, the penny dropped. “Everybody — here’s the
    game. There’s looting to be had here.”

    The Times reports that phones confiscated by the Met from arrested troublemakers allowed them to acess the Blackberry Messaging with which the riots & looting were organised & extended to other London Boroughs-including some planned for Stratford East, & Oxford Street which were thwarted.

    Tim Godwin of The Met told Vaz’ Select Committee that social media had been used to orchestrate the disorder.

    So the evidence does not support your idea that 24hr tv news sparked the expansion of the London riots & looting.

    I have not yet read of any explanation for the outbursts in other cities-and in those cases it may be that TV news coverage encouraged copycat events.

  27. Colin

    Actually I don’t disagree with anything that IDS says in that quote and there’s lots of evidence that the move from rioting to looting was spontaneous and opportunistic as was the subsequent involvement of professional groups of thieves. There’s also evidence that there was some movement locally between nearby shopping areas (though of course these often run into each other anyway). In so far as these things were organised social media were used as well as talking, rumour and the rest.

    However as far as the wider rioting across London goes I’m less convinced. I’m sure there was lots of stuff on the social media, but since 99% of what’s on social media is rubbish, it tends to overwhelm any attempt to organise things quickly. Remember that not only did no one turn up to the ‘riots’ promoted by those two idiots on Facebook. They didn’t even turn up to them themselves. I’ve already commented on the Met ‘foiling’ the riots in Oxford Street and elsewhere, which I think is spin for keeping forces in reserve (not necessarily wrong – but not popular). Again I’m sure there were messages, but then there were probably messages about everything.

    However as far as the wider rioting across London goes I’m less convinced. I think there was (unwitting) media influence because people thought that the Police had lost control and therefore free goods were to be had. Various groups of associates semi-organise a get-together and it all kicks off. There were too many and they were too widely spread for it to be the same group of people. I don’t think there was organisation across London and I suspect even most professional criminal involvement was opportunistic, either by picking up on existing disturbances or breaking into premises near riots, knowing the Police were fully engaged.

    I’m trying not to use the word ‘gangs’ because I think it is being used very loosely, both for formal gangs and more loosely associated groups of young people. I’m also sceptical about this ‘known gang associate’ business. Partly because of the confirmation bias of Police being able to arrest those they know, but also because a lot of these people won’t be gang members themselves but just people who know some of them. I’m not saying gangs weren’t involved – they clearly were in a lot of the riots – but I don’t think they were responsible for all of them and, except again locally, that there was coordination. There didn’t need to be because of the general impression that law and order had broken down.

  28. @ Colin

    I think you have got the sequence of events and motivation about right. Blame though is the order of the day now. So who do we blame?

    I think it’s a timely reminder of the vulnerability of our society to disorder when the bluff that is policing is called (We do not have and cannot have a police force which is effective everywhere and always). It always relies on mass consent to law by the populace and a fear of getting caught). To shrink the deterrent of policing still further by reducing numbers seems politically impossible and practically unwise at present.

    In reality all societies at any time can riot if the bars to such action are removed. For example if it becomes socially acceptable or jusifiable to attack the forces of law and order, if these forces are perceived themselves to be unjust, or if it seems that one can act in such a way with impunity.

    In this case i suspect the underlying social anxieties and stresses were less powerful than the simple perception that the police were not keeping control any more and you could get away with it. The first assumption was probably true between the Saturday and Monday of the riots- not true since – and the latter was a false assumption and clearly not a smart one – the punishments will be severe – mostly rightly – though there will be the odd bizarre and probably unjust sentence which appeal courts will hopefully adjust in the interests of justice or at least the appearance of justice.

    I suspect that politically the riots will have little impact on VI – the bigger picture remains the economy. It adds though to the impression of a return to the 80’s and a government that cannot keep control of events and is reacting piecemeal to events – as governments invariably have to do.

  29. Roger & Iceman

    Thanks both.

    Interesting thoughts.

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